TLN Stock Analysis: Talen Energy | NASDAQ
Utilities - Independent Power Producers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 14.542m USD | 12M Return: -13.3% | US87422Q1094 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 250M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 32.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 3.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is an independent power producer and infrastructure company that generates and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into U.S. wholesale power markets. Its portfolio spans approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure, drawing on a diversified mix of fuel sources including nuclear, natural gas, coal, oil, and other fossil fuels. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and was incorporated in 2014.
As an independent power producer, Talen operates in deregulated electricity markets and sells its output at wholesale rather than directly to retail customers, distinguishing it from regulated utility holding companies. This business model exposes the company to commodity-driven price volatility and competitive market dynamics, with revenue typically tied to a combination of merchant energy sales, capacity market payments, and bilateral contracts.
- Amazon nuclear PPA secures Susquehanna plant long-term revenue
- PJM capacity auction prices surge on tightening supply
- Data center load growth drives wholesale power prices higher
| Net Income: -185.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.16% < 20% (prev 17.76%; Δ -25.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 796.0m > Net Income -185.0m |
| Net Debt (9.34b) to EBITDA (794.0m): 11.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.9m) vs 12m ago -4.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.57% > 18% (prev 28.81%; Δ 15.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.78% > 50% (prev 36.52%; Δ -2.74% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.75 > 6 (EBIT TTM 375.0m / Interest Expense TTM 499.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.03b - Total Current Liabilities 1.32b) / Total Assets 15.1b |
| B: -0.06 (Retained Earnings -905.0m / Total Assets 15.1b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 375.0m / Avg Total Assets 10.4b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.62b / Total Liabilities 13.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.05 = B |
| DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 294.0m/226.0m, Revenue 3.53b/2.13b) |
| GMI: 0.65 (GM 28.81% / 44.57%) |
| AQI: 0.43 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 1.66 (Revenue 3.53b / 2.13b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -185.0m - CFO 796.0m) / TA 15.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.40 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 373.11 with a total of 2,816,519 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +18.51%, over one month by +14.53%, over three months by -1.24% and over the past year by -13.32%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 354.90 (which is 4.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Talen Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TLN.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 460.6 | 23.4% |
P/E Forward = 9.9404
P/S = 3.8872
P/B = 8.9051
Revenue TTM = 3.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 375.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 794.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.54b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 29.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.57b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.34b USD (calculated: Debt 9.57b - CCE 231.0m)
Enterprise Value = 23.9b USD (14.5b + Debt 9.57b - CCE 231.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.75 (Ebit TTM 375.0m / Interest Expense TTM 499.0m)
EV/FCF = 46.83x (Enterprise Value 23.9b / FCF TTM 510.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.14% (FCF TTM 510.0m / Enterprise Value 23.9b)
FCF Margin = 14.45% (FCF TTM 510.0m / Revenue TTM 3.53b)
Net Margin = -5.24% (Net Income TTM -185.0m / Revenue TTM 3.53b)
Gross Margin = 44.57% ((Revenue TTM 3.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.26% (prev 39.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.59 (Enterprise Value 23.9b / Total Assets 15.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.21% (Interest Expense 499.0m / Debt 9.57b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 296.2m (EBIT 375.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.78 (Total Current Assets 1.03b / Total Current Liabilities 1.32b)
Debt / Equity = 5.92 (Debt 9.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.62b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.76 (Net Debt 9.34b / EBITDA 794.0m)
Debt / FCF = 18.32 (Net Debt 9.34b / FCF TTM 510.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.31b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.77% (Net Income -185.0m / Total Assets 15.1b)
RoE = -14.09% (Net Income TTM -185.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.31b)
RoCE = 3.45% (EBIT 375.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.31b + L.T.Debt 9.54b))
RoIC = 2.18% (NOPAT 296.2m / Invested Capital 13.6b)
WACC = 9.32% (E(14.5b)/V(24.1b) * Re(12.75%) + D(9.57b)/V(24.1b) * Rd(5.21%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -77.39 | Cagr: -11.69%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.09% ; FCFF base≈510.0m ; Y1≈512.1m ; Y5≈542.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.24b - Net Debt 9.34b = -2.10b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.02 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 32.46 | Revenue CAGR: 7.87% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=7.37 | Chg30d=+30.02% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=22.26 | Chg30d=+4.59% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+145.7% | GrowthRev=+75.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=30.75 | Chg30d=+5.53% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+38.1% | GrowthRev=+15.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=6, down=3)