(TMC) TMC the metals - Ratings and Ratios
Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Manganese
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 148% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 208% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.33% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.26 |
| Alpha | 851.52 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.526 |
| Beta | 1.573 |
| Beta Downside | 1.014 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.56% |
| Mean DD | 42.26% |
| Median DD | 46.67% |
Description: TMC TMC the metals November 08, 2025
TMC The Metals Company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is a Vancouver-based explorer of deep-sea polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean. The firm targets nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese-metals that underpin electric-vehicle batteries, energy-storage systems and high-strength steel. Founded in 2011, TMC holds exclusive exploration and commercial rights to two nodule contract areas in the CCZ.
Key sector drivers include the accelerating demand for battery-grade nickel and cobalt (projected to grow > 7 % CAGR through 2030) and tightening terrestrial supply, which has spurred interest in offshore sources. However, deep-sea mining remains subject to stringent environmental regulations and uncertain permitting timelines, introducing material execution risk.
As of the latest filing (Q2 2024), TMC reported a cash balance of roughly $115 million and a market capitalization near $210 million, giving it a cash-to-market-cap ratio of ~ 55 %. The company’s 2025-2027 production guidance assumes extraction of ~ 30 kt of nickel-equivalent metal per year at an estimated all-in-cost of $6,500-$7,500 per tonne, which is competitive with current on-shore benchmarks but highly sensitive to capital-intensity assumptions.
Investors should watch two primary uncertainties: (1) the timeline for obtaining the International Seabed Authority’s final exploitation license (currently targeted for 2026) and (2) the scalability of the proprietary nodules-to-metal processing technology, which has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale.
For a data-driven view of TMC’s risk-adjusted upside, you might find the ValueRay platform’s granular cost-curve analysis worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-295.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = -1.21m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.26 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 48.74pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -348.7% (prev -269.2%; Δ -79.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.26 (>3.0%) and CFO -45.3m > Net Income -295.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.50 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (321.9m) change vs 12m ago -0.55% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 101.3% (prev -1.87%; Δ 103.1pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover -17.04% (prev 32.92%; Δ -49.96pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -105.8 (EBITDA TTM -291.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.76m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -32.15
| (A) 0.40 = (Total Current Assets 117.2m - Total Current Liabilities 46.8m) / Total Assets 175.6m |
| (B) -5.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -910.9m / Total Assets 175.6m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -5.19 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -2.46 = EBIT TTM -291.6m / Avg Total Assets 118.5m |
| (D) -1.26 = Book Value of Equity -273.2m / Total Liabilities 216.2m |
| Total Rating: -32.15 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 39.89
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.71% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity -0.29 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.40 |
| 7. RoE data missing |
| 8. Rev. Trend -74.20% |
| 9. EPS Trend -31.38% |
What is the price of TMC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.07%, over one month by +30.22%, over three months by +52.34% and over the past year by +764.75%.
Is TMC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.8 | 12.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.8 | 12.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.8 | -0.1% |
TMC Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/B = 35.3471
Beta = 1.823
Revenue TTM = -20.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -291.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -291.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -115.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.66b USD (2.77b + Debt 11.8m - CCE 115.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -105.8 (Ebit TTM -291.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.76m)
FCF Yield = -1.71% (FCF TTM -45.5m / Enterprise Value 2.66b)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
FCF Margin = 225.3% (FCF TTM -45.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Net Margin = 1464 % (Net Income TTM -295.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Gross Margin = 101.3% ((Revenue TTM -20.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 255.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 15.15 (Enterprise Value 2.66b / Total Assets 175.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.78% (Interest Expense 681.0k / Debt 11.8m)
Taxrate = -0.07% (negative due to tax credits) (123.0k / -184.4m)
NOPAT = -291.8m (EBIT -291.6m * (1 - -0.07%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 2.50 (Total Current Assets 117.2m / Total Current Liabilities 46.8m)
Debt / Equity = -0.29 (negative equity) (Debt 11.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -40.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -115.6m / EBITDA -291.3m)
Debt / FCF = 2.54 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -115.6m / FCF TTM -45.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.84m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -168.3% (out of range, set to none)
RoE = -16.1k% (out of range, set to none) (Net Income TTM -295.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.84m)
RoCE = -226.4% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -291.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 175.6m - Current Liab 46.8m))
RoIC = -3695 % (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -291.8m / Invested Capital 7.90m)
WACC = 11.78% (E(2.77b)/V(2.78b) * Re(11.81%) + D(11.8m)/V(2.78b) * Rd(5.78%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 11.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 2.47%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -45.5m)
EPS Correlation: -31.38 | EPS CAGR: -65.46% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -74.20 | Revenue CAGR: -22.32% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.22 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+71.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for TMC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle