(TMC) TMC the metals - Ratings and Ratios
Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Manganese
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 104% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 145% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.48% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.89 |
| Alpha | 390.45 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.53 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.577 |
| Beta | 1.656 |
| Beta Downside | 1.002 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.56% |
| Mean DD | 43.26% |
| Median DD | 46.67% |
Description: TMC TMC the metals January 11, 2026
TMC The Metals Company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is a Vancouver-based deep-sea mining firm that holds exploration and commercial rights to two polymetallic-nodule contract areas in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean. Its target commodities are nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese-metals that underpin electric-vehicle batteries, grid-scale energy storage, and high-strength steel alloys.
As of the latest filing (Q4 2023), TMC reported a market capitalization of roughly $150 million and cash-and-cash-equivalents of about $30 million, sufficient to fund its current environmental impact assessments but insufficient for full-scale commercial extraction, which analysts estimate will require $200-$300 million in additional capital over the next 5-7 years.
Key economic drivers include the projected 12%-15% CAGR in global demand for nickel and cobalt driven by EV battery production, and the tightening supply outlook for deep-sea sourced manganese, which could command a premium if regulatory approvals are secured. However, the sector faces high uncertainty from evolving international seabed mining treaties, potential environmental litigation, and the long lead-time (typically 8-10 years) from exploration to commercial output.
For a data-rich, risk-adjusted view of TMC’s valuation and exposure to these macro trends, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboard can help you identify the most material assumptions to test.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -295.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.26 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 48.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -348.7% < 20% (prev -269.2%; Δ -79.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.26 > 3% & CFO -45.3m > Net Income -295.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (321.9m) vs 12m ago -0.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: -17.04% > 50% (prev 32.92%; Δ -49.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -105.8 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -291.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.76m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 117.2m - Total Current Liabilities 46.8m) / Total Assets 175.6m |
| B: -5.19 (Retained Earnings -910.9m / Total Assets 175.6m) |
| C: -2.46 (EBIT TTM -291.6m / Avg Total Assets 118.5m) |
| D: -1.26 (Book Value of Equity -273.2m / Total Liabilities 216.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -32.15= D |
Beneish M
| DSRI: none (Receivables 1.57m/2.56m, Revenue -20.2m/20.2m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.43 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: none (Revenue -20.2m / 20.2m) |
| TATA: -1.42 (NI -295.5m - CFO -45.3m) / TA 175.6m) |
| Beneish M-Score: cannot calculate (missing components) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 37.31
| 1. Piotroski: 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: -1.21% |
| 3. FCF Margin: data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity: -0.29 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: data missing |
| 7. RoE: data missing |
| 8. Revenue Trend: -74.20% |
| 9. EPS Trend: -20.48% |
What is the price of TMC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.74%, over one month by +7.91%, over three months by +14.60% and over the past year by +433.33%.
Is TMC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.8 | 5.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.8 | 5.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.6 | 3.7% |
TMC Fundamental Data Overview January 19, 2026
Revenue TTM = -20.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -291.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -291.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -115.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.77b USD (3.87b + Debt 11.8m - CCE 115.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -105.8 (Ebit TTM -291.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.76m)
EV/FCF = -82.86x (Enterprise Value 3.77b / FCF TTM -45.5m)
FCF Yield = -1.21% (FCF TTM -45.5m / Enterprise Value 3.77b)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
FCF Margin = 225.3% (FCF TTM -45.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Net Margin = 1464 % (Net Income TTM -295.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM -20.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 255.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 21.46 (Enterprise Value 3.77b / Total Assets 175.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.78% (Interest Expense 681.0k / Debt 11.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -230.3m (EBIT -291.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.50 (Total Current Assets 117.2m / Total Current Liabilities 46.8m)
Debt / Equity = -0.29 (negative equity) (Debt 11.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -40.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -115.6m / EBITDA -291.3m)
Debt / FCF = 2.54 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -115.6m / FCF TTM -45.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.84m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -249.4% (out of range, set to none)
RoE = -16.1k% (out of range, set to none) (Net Income TTM -295.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.84m)
RoCE = -226.4% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -291.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 175.6m - Current Liab 46.8m))
RoIC = -2917 % (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -230.3m / Invested Capital 7.90m)
WACC = 12.00% (E(3.87b)/V(3.88b) * Re(12.02%) + D(11.8m)/V(3.88b) * Rd(5.78%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 2.47%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -45.5m)
EPS Correlation: -20.48 | EPS CAGR: 5.89% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -74.20 | Revenue CAGR: -22.32% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.22 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+71.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for TMC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle