(TMC) TMC the metals - Ratings and Ratios
Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Manganese
TMC EPS (Earnings per Share)
TMC Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 92.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 130% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.72% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.87 |
| Alpha | 414.11 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.570 |
| Beta | 1.496 |
| Beta Downside | 1.039 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.56% |
| Mean DD | 41.88% |
| Median DD | 45.96% |
Description: TMC TMC the metals November 08, 2025
TMC The Metals Company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is a Vancouver-based explorer of deep-sea polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean. The firm targets nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese-metals that underpin electric-vehicle batteries, energy-storage systems and high-strength steel. Founded in 2011, TMC holds exclusive exploration and commercial rights to two nodule contract areas in the CCZ.
Key sector drivers include the accelerating demand for battery-grade nickel and cobalt (projected to grow > 7 % CAGR through 2030) and tightening terrestrial supply, which has spurred interest in offshore sources. However, deep-sea mining remains subject to stringent environmental regulations and uncertain permitting timelines, introducing material execution risk.
As of the latest filing (Q2 2024), TMC reported a cash balance of roughly $115 million and a market capitalization near $210 million, giving it a cash-to-market-cap ratio of ~ 55 %. The company’s 2025-2027 production guidance assumes extraction of ~ 30 kt of nickel-equivalent metal per year at an estimated all-in-cost of $6,500-$7,500 per tonne, which is competitive with current on-shore benchmarks but highly sensitive to capital-intensity assumptions.
Investors should watch two primary uncertainties: (1) the timeline for obtaining the International Seabed Authority’s final exploitation license (currently targeted for 2026) and (2) the scalability of the proprietary nodules-to-metal processing technology, which has yet to be demonstrated at commercial scale.
For a data-driven view of TMC’s risk-adjusted upside, you might find the ValueRay platform’s granular cost-curve analysis worth a look.
TMC Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 3,024m |
| Sub-Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
| IPO / Inception | 2021-09-10 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 375% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.25 of 5 |
TMC Dividends
Currently no dividends paidTMC Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | 82.00% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.10 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 1.96 |
| Current Volume | 6828.3k |
| Average Volume | 6698.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income (-131.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = -1.21m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 64.10pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -335.4% (prev -207.8%; Δ -127.6pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.23 (>3.0%) and CFO -39.5m > Net Income -131.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.37 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (366.6m) change vs 12m ago 14.25% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 101.4% (prev -63.48%; Δ 164.9pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover -17.23% (prev 33.28%; Δ -50.50pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -47.87 (EBITDA TTM -128.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.69m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -19.85
| (A) 0.39 = (Total Current Assets 117.3m - Total Current Liabilities 49.6m) / Total Assets 173.7m |
| (B) -4.18 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -726.4m / Total Assets 173.7m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -4.18 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -1.10 = EBIT TTM -128.8m / Avg Total Assets 117.2m |
| (D) -1.32 = Book Value of Equity -121.3m / Total Liabilities 91.8m |
| Total Rating: -19.85 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 46.87
| 1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.35% = -0.67 |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.03 = 2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.88 = 1.92 |
| 7. RoE data missing |
| 8. Rev. Trend -66.09% = -4.96 |
| 9. EPS Trend 11.62% = 0.58 |
What is the price of TMC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.51%, over one month by -51.64%, over three months by -4.96% and over the past year by +440.57%.
Is TMC the metals a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of TMC is around 4.09 USD . This means that TMC is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -20.89%.
Is TMC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.8 | 69.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.8 | 69.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.7 | -8.5% |
TMC Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025
P/B = 35.3471
Beta = 1.823
Revenue TTM = -20.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -128.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -128.5m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 2.48m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.48m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -113.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.91b USD (3.02b + Debt 2.48m - CCE 115.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -47.87 (Ebit TTM -128.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.69m)
FCF Yield = -1.35% (FCF TTM -39.2m / Enterprise Value 2.91b)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
FCF Margin = 194.4% (FCF TTM -39.2m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Net Margin = 651.6% (Net Income TTM -131.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Gross Margin = 101.4% ((Revenue TTM -20.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 281.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 16.76 (Enterprise Value 2.91b / Total Assets 173.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 33.62% (Interest Expense 833.0k / Debt 2.48m)
Taxrate = -0.06% (negative due to tax credits) (48.0k / -81.9m)
NOPAT = -128.9m (EBIT -128.8m * (1 - -0.06%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 2.37 (Total Current Assets 117.3m / Total Current Liabilities 49.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 2.48m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 81.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.88 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -113.3m / EBITDA -128.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.89 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -113.3m / FCF TTM -39.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.63m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -75.71% (Net Income -131.5m / Total Assets 173.7m)
RoE = -1985 % (out of range, set to none) (Net Income TTM -131.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 6.63m)
RoCE = -1944 % (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -128.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 6.63m + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = -860.6% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -128.9m / Invested Capital 15.0m)
WACC = 12.75% (E(3.02b)/V(3.03b) * Re(12.73%) + D(2.48m)/V(3.03b) * Rd(33.62%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 12.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.36%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -39.2m)
EPS Correlation: 11.62 | EPS CAGR: 88.57% | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -66.09 | Revenue CAGR: -26.29% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for TMC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle