(TMCI) Treace Medical Concepts - Ratings and Ratios
Bunion Correction System, Mini-Incision System, Midfoot Deformity Correction
TMCI EPS (Earnings per Share)
TMCI Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 87.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 119% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.22 |
| Alpha Jensen | -70.71 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.748 |
| Beta | 0.688 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 88.04% |
| Mean DD | 54.46% |
Description: TMCI Treace Medical Concepts October 26, 2025
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMCI) is a U.S.-based medical-technology firm that designs, manufactures, and markets a single-product platform for bunion and midfoot deformity surgery. Its flagship Lapiplasty 3-D bunion correction system integrates instruments, implants, and a proprietary surgical technique to address the three-dimensional nature of the deformity, while the Lapiplasty mini-incision variant enables the procedure through a 3.5 cm cut. A secondary offering, the Adductoplasty system, targets metatarsus adductus and midfoot osteoarthritis. The company sells directly to orthopedic surgeons, ambulatory surgery centers, and hospitals.
Key operational metrics: TMCI reported FY 2023 revenue of roughly $30 million, a 38 % year-over-year increase, driven primarily by expanding adoption of the Lapiplasty system in outpatient settings. Gross margins have hovered near 70 %, reflecting the high-value, low-volume nature of the devices. The firm holds ~ $45 million of cash and short-term investments, providing runway into 2026 under current cash-burn rates. Macro drivers include an aging U.S. population (U.S. Census projects a 10 % rise in adults ≥ 65 by 2030), increasing demand for minimally invasive foot surgery, and favorable reimbursement trends as Medicare and private insurers recognize the procedure’s potential to reduce revision rates and overall costs.
For a deeper quantitative dive into TMCI’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-rich overview.
TMCI Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 227m |
| Sub-Industry | Health Care Equipment |
| IPO / Inception | 2021-04-23 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -64.3% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.57 of 5 |
TMCI Dividends
Currently no dividends paidTMCI Growth Ratios
| CAGR | -46.37% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.53 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.85 |
| Current Volume | 1653.3k |
| Average Volume | 229.7k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income (-50.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 13.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.89pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 44.36% (prev 58.83%; Δ -14.47pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO -12.2m > Net Income -50.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 3.37 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (63.5m) change vs 12m ago 2.07% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 79.87% (prev 80.61%; Δ -0.74pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 106.9% (prev 95.27%; Δ 11.62pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -8.43 (EBITDA TTM -34.5m / Interest Expense TTM 5.28m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -4.54
| (A) 0.49 = (Total Current Assets 138.0m - Total Current Liabilities 40.9m) / Total Assets 196.6m |
| (B) -1.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -239.6m / Total Assets 196.6m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.22 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.22 = EBIT TTM -44.6m / Avg Total Assets 204.8m |
| (D) -2.23 = Book Value of Equity -239.5m / Total Liabilities 107.4m |
| Total Rating: -4.54 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 23.59
| 1. Piotroski 1.50pt = -3.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield -14.45% = -5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin -12.04% = -4.51 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 = 2.49 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.15 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -31.19)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE -49.49% = -2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 33.60% = 2.52 |
| 9. EPS Trend -18.15% = -0.91 |
What is the price of TMCI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -46.80%, over one month by -44.58%, over three months by -49.08% and over the past year by -58.64%.
Is Treace Medical Concepts a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of TMCI is around 1.91 USD . This means that TMCI is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -42.64%.
Is TMCI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMCI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6.6 | 97% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6.6 | 97% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2.1 | -36% |
TMCI Fundamental Data Overview November 12, 2025
P/S = 1.0364
P/B = 3.1627
Beta = 0.688
Revenue TTM = 218.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -44.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -34.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 53.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.80m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.24m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 182.4m USD (226.8m + Debt 12.9m - CCE 57.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.43 (Ebit TTM -44.6m / Interest Expense TTM 5.28m)
FCF Yield = -14.45% (FCF TTM -26.3m / Enterprise Value 182.4m)
FCF Margin = -12.04% (FCF TTM -26.3m / Revenue TTM 218.9m)
Net Margin = -22.89% (Net Income TTM -50.1m / Revenue TTM 218.9m)
Gross Margin = 79.87% ((Revenue TTM 218.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.07% (prev 79.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 182.4m / Total Assets 196.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.35% (Interest Expense 1.34m / Debt 12.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -35.2m (EBIT -44.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.37 (Total Current Assets 138.0m / Total Current Liabilities 40.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 12.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 89.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.15 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 5.24m / EBITDA -34.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.24m / FCF TTM -26.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 101.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -25.49% (Net Income -50.1m / Total Assets 196.6m)
RoE = -49.49% (Net Income TTM -50.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 101.3m)
RoCE = -28.78% (EBIT -44.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 101.3m + L.T.Debt 53.5m))
RoIC = -22.65% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -35.2m / Invested Capital 155.4m)
WACC = 8.55% (E(226.8m)/V(239.8m) * Re(8.57%) + D(12.9m)/V(239.8m) * Rd(10.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.46%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -26.3m)
EPS Correlation: -18.15 | EPS CAGR: -27.10% | SUE: 2.10 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 33.60 | Revenue CAGR: 0.32% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for TMCI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle