TMDX Stock Analysis: TransMedics | NASDAQ

Medical Devices | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.198m USD | 12M Return: -24.2% | US89377M1099 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Organ Care System, OCS LUNG, OCS Heart, OCS Liver
Total Rating 26
Safety 36
Buy Signal -0.83
Medical Devices
Industry Rotation: +3.5
Market Cap: 3.20B
Avg Turnover: 67.2M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility63.6%
VaR 5th Pctl9.91%
VaR vs Median-5.09%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Rel. Str. IBD13.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group19
Character TTM
Beta0.923
Beta Downside0.360
Hurst Exponent0.610
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD67.79%
CAGR/Max DD0.13
CAGR/Mean DD0.29
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TMDX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.39, "2021-09": -0.47, "2021-12": -0.46, "2022-03": -0.38, "2022-06": -0.41, "2022-09": -0.25, "2022-12": -0.21, "2023-03": -0.08, "2023-06": -0.03, "2023-09": 0.07, "2023-12": 0.12, "2024-03": 0.35, "2024-06": 0.35, "2024-09": 0.12, "2024-12": 0.19, "2025-03": 0.7, "2025-06": 0.92, "2025-09": 0.66, "2025-12": 0.051, "2026-03": 0.3, "2026-06": 0.44,
Last SUE: -0.18
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TMDX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 8.171, 2021-09: 5.37, 2021-12: 9.668, 2022-03: 15.88, 2022-06: 20.521, 2022-09: 25.683, 2022-12: 31.375, 2023-03: 41.554, 2023-06: 52.465, 2023-09: 66.43, 2023-12: 81.174, 2024-03: 96.85, 2024-06: 114.305, 2024-09: 108.761, 2024-12: 121.624, 2025-03: 143.537, 2025-06: 157.37, 2025-09: 143.823, 2025-12: 160.764, 2026-03: 173.933, 2026-06: 189.948,
Rev. CAGR: 53.53%
Rev. Trend: 96.7%
Last SUE: 0.66
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Earnings Expected To Drop (P/E To P/E Forward)
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Seasonal Headwind
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 7.2 years of data

Jan +3.2% 16
Feb +5.2% 33
Mar -12.2% 23
Apr -4.2% 15
May -13.4% 6
Jun +5.2% 39
Jul +0.8% 9
Aug -0.1% 0
Sep -14.7% 62
Oct -18.8% 18
Nov +7.2% 32
Dec -11.4% 22

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TMDX TransMedics

TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is a commercial-stage medical technology company that focuses on transforming organ transplant therapy for patients with end-stage organ failure in the United States and internationally. The companys core product is the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable platform that perfuses, optimizes, and monitors donor organs outside the human body under near-physiologic conditions, with dedicated modules for lungs, hearts, and livers. Beyond its hardware, TransMedics operates a national OCS program that provides turnkey organ retrieval, management, and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, making it both a medical device manufacturer and a transplant logistics provider. Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts, the company went public in May 2019 and sits within the Health Care Equipment sub-industry, a sector that supplies hospitals and surgical centers with specialized capital equipment used in complex procedures.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • OCS Lung and Heart shipment volumes accelerate revenue growth
  • National OCS Program expands outsourced organ retrieval contracts
  • Aviation logistics services add high-margin recurring revenue stream
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: 151.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.45 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 82.70% < 20% (prev 94.39%; Δ -11.69% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 145.9m > Net Income 151.7m
Net Debt (748.8m) to EBITDA (118.0m): 6.34 < 3
Current Ratio: 6.62 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.7m) vs 12m ago 0.37% < -2%
Gross Margin: 58.69% > 18% (prev 59.79%; Δ -1.10% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 56.77% > 50% (prev 59.66%; Δ -2.89% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 81.6m / Interest Expense TTM 21.2m)
Altman Z'' 2.95
A: 0.38 (Total Current Assets 651.1m - Total Current Liabilities 98.3m) / Total Assets 1.46b
B: -0.17 (Retained Earnings -256.0m / Total Assets 1.46b)
C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 81.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.18b)
D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 518.1m / Total Liabilities 946.3m)
Altman-Z'' = 2.95 = A
Beneish M -0.81
DSRI: 0.79 (Receivables 104.1m/104.9m, Revenue 668.5m/531.3m)
GMI: 1.02 (GM 59.79% / 58.69%)
AQI: 4.69 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 668.5m / 531.3m)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 151.7m - CFO 145.9m) / TA 1.46b)
Beneish M = -0.81 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of TMDX shares?

As of August 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 88.43 with a total of 629,879 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.69%, over one month by +15.91%, over three months by +30.37% and over the past year by -24.24%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 83.80 (which is 5.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is TMDX a buy, sell or hold?

TransMedics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.22. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TMDX.

  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TMDX price?
Analysts Target Price 97.3 10%
TransMedics (TMDX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.20b (3.20b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.2684
P/E Forward = 65.3595
P/S = 4.7837
P/B = 6.265
P/EG = 1.3091
Revenue TTM = 668.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 81.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 494.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 23.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.22b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 353.7m
Net Debt = 748.8m USD (calculated: Debt 1.22b - CCE 472.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.95b USD (3.20b + Debt 1.22b - CCE 472.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.84 (Ebit TTM 81.6m / Interest Expense TTM 21.2m)
EV/FCF = 49.93x (Enterprise Value 3.95b / FCF TTM 79.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.00% (FCF TTM 79.0m / Enterprise Value 3.95b)
FCF Margin = 11.82% (FCF TTM 79.0m / Revenue TTM 668.5m)
Net Margin = 22.69% (Net Income TTM 151.7m / Revenue TTM 668.5m)
Gross Margin = 58.69% ((Revenue TTM 668.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 276.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.59% (prev 58.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.69 (Enterprise Value 3.95b / Total Assets 1.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.74% (Interest Expense 21.2m / Debt 1.22b)
Taxrate = 24.34% (4.72m / 19.4m)
NOPAT = 61.7m (EBIT 81.6m * (1 - 24.34%))
Current Ratio = 6.62 (Total Current Assets 651.1m / Total Current Liabilities 98.3m)
Debt / Equity = 2.36 (Debt 1.22b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 518.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.34 (Net Debt 748.8m / EBITDA 118.0m)
Debt / FCF = 9.47 (Net Debt 748.8m / FCF TTM 79.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 460.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.88% (Net Income 151.7m / Total Assets 1.46b)
RoE = 32.97% (Net Income TTM 151.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 460.1m)
RoCE = 8.55% (EBIT 81.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 460.1m + L.T.Debt 494.0m))
RoIC = 4.55% (NOPAT 61.7m / Invested Capital 1.36b)
WACC = 7.04% (E(3.20b)/V(4.42b) * Re(9.23%) + D(1.22b)/V(4.42b) * Rd(1.74%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 69.25 | Cagr: 7.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈54.4m ; Y1≈62.3m ; Y5≈91.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.21 (EV 1.38b - Net Debt 748.8m = Equity 631.5m / Shares 34.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.68 | Revenue CAGR: 53.53% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-23.48% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=-12.06% | Revisions=-70% | GrowthEPS=-40.6% | GrowthRev=+22.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.31 | Chg30d=-16.65% | Revisions=-70% | GrowthEPS=+47.9% | GrowthRev=+17.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -87% (up=0, down=20)