(TMDX) TransMedics - Ratings and Ratios
Portable Perfusion System, Lung Module, Heart Module, Liver Module
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 64.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 90.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.33 |
| Alpha | 78.43 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.510 |
| Beta | 1.179 |
| Beta Downside | 0.901 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.79% |
| Mean DD | 25.88% |
| Median DD | 23.06% |
Description: TMDX TransMedics November 09, 2025
TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMDX) is a commercial-stage medical-technology firm that markets the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable platform that perfuses, optimizes, and monitors donor organs in near-physiologic conditions outside the body. The OCS portfolio includes OCS LUNG for double-lung transplants, OCS Heart for donation-after-brain-death (DBD) hearts and ex-vivo reanimation of donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) hearts, and OCS Liver for both DBD and DCD liver grafts. In addition to the hardware, the company runs a turnkey national OCS program that handles organ retrieval, logistics, and transportation, positioning itself as an end-to-end service provider for transplant centers in the U.S. and abroad.
Key recent metrics: Q2 2024 revenue rose 28% YoY to $44 million, driven by a 35% increase in OCS Heart shipments and expanding adoption of OCS Lung in high-volume transplant centers. The company reported a backlog of roughly $120 million, indicating strong forward-order flow. Sector drivers include an aging population that raises demand for organ transplants, a persistent organ-donor shortage that fuels interest in perfusion technologies, and evolving Medicare reimbursement policies that now provide higher payments for perfused organs compared with traditional cold-storage methods.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of TMDX’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise dashboard of forward-looking cash-flow estimates and peer-adjusted multiples.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (91.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 34.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 28.09pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 94.16% (prev 107.8%; Δ -13.65pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 (>3.0%) and CFO 178.0m > Net Income 91.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (53.2m) to EBITDA (132.3m) ratio: 0.40 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 7.69 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (40.7m) change vs 12m ago 14.19% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 60.28% (prev 59.29%; Δ 0.99pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 65.41% (prev 51.06%; Δ 14.36pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.63 (EBITDA TTM 132.3m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.84
| (A) 0.56 = (Total Current Assets 613.0m - Total Current Liabilities 79.7m) / Total Assets 946.0m |
| (B) -0.41 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -383.3m / Total Assets 946.0m |
| (C) 0.12 = EBIT TTM 106.9m / Avg Total Assets 865.8m |
| (D) 0.60 = Book Value of Equity 355.2m / Total Liabilities 590.8m |
| Total Rating: 3.84 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 82.33
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.73% |
| 3. FCF Margin 21.30% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.46 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.40 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.73)% |
| 7. RoE 31.42% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 94.27% |
| 9. EPS Trend 85.31% |
What is the price of TMDX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.72%, over one month by -14.79%, over three months by +9.07% and over the past year by +98.40%.
Is TMDX a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMDX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 144.7 | 16.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 144.7 | 16.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 164.7 | 32.6% |
TMDX Fundamental Data Overview December 28, 2025
P/E Trailing = 50.2638
P/E Forward = 53.1915
P/S = 7.7037
P/B = 12.2833
Beta = 2.048
Revenue TTM = 566.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 106.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 132.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 506.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.24m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 519.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 53.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.42b USD (4.36b + Debt 519.3m - CCE 466.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.63 (Ebit TTM 106.9m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.73% (FCF TTM 120.6m / Enterprise Value 4.42b)
FCF Margin = 21.30% (FCF TTM 120.6m / Revenue TTM 566.4m)
Net Margin = 16.20% (Net Income TTM 91.8m / Revenue TTM 566.4m)
Gross Margin = 60.28% ((Revenue TTM 566.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 224.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.80% (prev 61.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.67 (Enterprise Value 4.42b / Total Assets 946.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 3.49m / Debt 519.3m)
Taxrate = -5.59% (negative due to tax credits) (-1.29m / 23.0m)
NOPAT = 112.9m (EBIT 106.9m * (1 - -5.59%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 7.69 (Total Current Assets 613.0m / Total Current Liabilities 79.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.46 (Debt 519.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 355.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (Net Debt 53.2m / EBITDA 132.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.44 (Net Debt 53.2m / FCF TTM 120.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 292.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.70% (Net Income 91.8m / Total Assets 946.0m)
RoE = 31.42% (Net Income TTM 91.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 292.1m)
RoCE = 13.38% (EBIT 106.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 292.1m + L.T.Debt 506.7m))
RoIC = 14.06% (NOPAT 112.9m / Invested Capital 802.5m)
WACC = 9.33% (E(4.36b)/V(4.88b) * Re(10.36%) + D(519.3m)/V(4.88b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(-0.06)))
Discount Rate = 10.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.62% ; FCFE base≈120.6m ; Y1≈116.5m ; Y5≈115.3m
Fair Price DCF = 41.42 (DCF Value 1.42b / Shares Outstanding 34.2m; 5y FCF grow -4.67% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 85.31 | EPS CAGR: 46.20% | SUE: 0.81 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.27 | Revenue CAGR: 105.4% | SUE: -0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.69 | Chg30d=-0.074 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=-0.106 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+12.9% | Growth Revenue=+20.7%
Additional Sources for TMDX Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle