TMDX Stock Analysis: TransMedics | NASDAQ

Medical Devices | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.462m USD | 12M Return: -42.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Organ Care System, OCS LUNG, OCS Heart, OCS Liver
Total Rating 24
Safety 39
Buy Signal -0.76
Medical Devices
Industry Rotation: +0.0
Market Cap: 2.46B
Avg Turnover: 72.2M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility62.7%
VaR 5th Pctl9.78%
VaR vs Median-4.76%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Rel. Str. IBD1.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group1.7
Character TTM
Beta1.069
Beta Downside0.404
Hurst Exponent0.694
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD67.79%
CAGR/Max DD-0.12
CAGR/Mean DD-0.26
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TMDX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.39, "2021-09": -0.47, "2021-12": -0.46, "2022-03": -0.38, "2022-06": -0.41, "2022-09": -0.25, "2022-12": -0.21, "2023-03": -0.08, "2023-06": -0.03, "2023-09": 0.07, "2023-12": 0.12, "2024-03": 0.35, "2024-06": 0.35, "2024-09": 0.12, "2024-12": 0.19, "2025-03": 0.7, "2025-06": 0.92, "2025-09": 0.66, "2025-12": 0.051, "2026-03": 0.3,
Last SUE: -1.01
Qual. Beats: -2
Revenue Revenue of TMDX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 8.171, 2021-09: 5.37, 2021-12: 9.668, 2022-03: 15.88, 2022-06: 20.521, 2022-09: 25.683, 2022-12: 31.375, 2023-03: 41.554, 2023-06: 52.465, 2023-09: 66.43, 2023-12: 81.174, 2024-03: 96.85, 2024-06: 114.305, 2024-09: 108.761, 2024-12: 121.624, 2025-03: 143.537, 2025-06: 157.37, 2025-09: 143.823, 2025-12: 160.764, 2026-03: 173.933,
Rev. CAGR: 65.56%
Rev. Trend: 96.8%
Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Earnings Expected To Drop (P/E To P/E Forward)
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 7.1 years of data

Jan +3.2% 16
Feb +5.2% 33
Mar -12.2% 23
Apr -4.2% 15
May -13.4% 6
Jun +14.9% 44
Jul -2.2% 2
Aug -0.1% 0
Sep -14.7% 64
Oct -18.8% 18
Nov +7.2% 32
Dec -11.4% 22

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TMDX TransMedics

TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is a commercial-stage medical technology company that focuses on transforming organ transplant therapy for patients with end-stage organ failure in the United States and internationally. The companys core product is the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable platform that perfuses, optimizes, and monitors donor organs outside the human body under near-physiologic conditions, with dedicated modules for lungs, hearts, and livers. Beyond its hardware, TransMedics operates a national OCS program that provides turnkey organ retrieval, management, and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, making it both a medical device manufacturer and a transplant logistics provider. Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts, the company went public in May 2019 and sits within the Health Care Equipment sub-industry, a sector that supplies hospitals and surgical centers with specialized capital equipment used in complex procedures.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • OCS Lung and Heart shipment volumes accelerate revenue growth
  • National OCS Program expands outsourced organ retrieval contracts
  • Aviation logistics services add high-margin recurring revenue stream
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 171.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 18.10 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 82.93% < 20% (prev 92.23%; Δ -9.30% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 220.2m > Net Income 171.9m
Net Debt (751.9m) to EBITDA (139.7m): 5.38 < 3
Current Ratio: 6.74 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (36.2m) vs 12m ago -9.32% < -2%
Gross Margin: 59.09% > 18% (prev 59.45%; Δ -0.36% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 55.97% > 50% (prev 58.29%; Δ -2.33% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 106.8m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m)
Altman Z'' 2.98
A: 0.37 (Total Current Assets 619.3m - Total Current Liabilities 91.9m) / Total Assets 1.43b
B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -270.6m / Total Assets 1.43b)
C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 106.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.14b)
D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 494.0m / Total Liabilities 940.8m)
Altman-Z'' = 2.98 = A
Beneish M -1.06
DSRI: 0.49 (Receivables 90.7m/142.0m, Revenue 635.9m/488.2m)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 59.45% / 59.09%)
AQI: 4.66 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.30 (Revenue 635.9m / 488.2m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 171.9m - CFO 220.2m) / TA 1.43b)
Beneish M = -1.06 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of TMDX shares?

As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 71.23 with a total of 427,243 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.44%, over one month by -4.73%, over three months by -37.52% and over the past year by -42.92%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 66.20 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is TMDX a buy, sell or hold?

TransMedics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.22. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TMDX.

  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TMDX price?
Analysts Target Price 116.2 63.2%
TransMedics (TMDX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 11 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.46b (2.46b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 16.2998
P/E Forward = 36.4964
P/S = 3.8714
P/B = 5.0504
Revenue TTM = 635.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 106.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 139.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 498.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 350.2m
Net Debt = 751.9m USD (calculated: Debt 1.21b - CCE 461.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.21b USD (2.46b + Debt 1.21b - CCE 461.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.11 (Ebit TTM 106.8m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m)
EV/FCF = 21.23x (Enterprise Value 3.21b / FCF TTM 151.4m)
FCF Yield = 4.71% (FCF TTM 151.4m / Enterprise Value 3.21b)
FCF Margin = 23.80% (FCF TTM 151.4m / Revenue TTM 635.9m)
Net Margin = 27.04% (Net Income TTM 171.9m / Revenue TTM 635.9m)
Gross Margin = 59.09% ((Revenue TTM 635.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 260.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.16% (prev 58.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.24 (Enterprise Value 3.21b / Total Assets 1.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.44% (Interest Expense 17.5m / Debt 1.21b)
Taxrate = 13.79% (1.17m / 8.48m)
NOPAT = 92.1m (EBIT 106.8m * (1 - 13.79%))
Current Ratio = 6.74 (Total Current Assets 619.3m / Total Current Liabilities 91.9m)
Debt / Equity = 2.46 (Debt 1.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 494.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.38 (Net Debt 751.9m / EBITDA 139.7m)
Debt / FCF = 4.97 (Net Debt 751.9m / FCF TTM 151.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 410.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.13% (Net Income 171.9m / Total Assets 1.43b)
RoE = 41.92% (Net Income TTM 171.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 410.1m)
RoCE = 11.76% (EBIT 106.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 410.1m + L.T.Debt 498.2m))
RoIC = 6.93% (NOPAT 92.1m / Invested Capital 1.33b)
WACC = 6.93% (E(2.46b)/V(3.68b) * Re(9.74%) + D(1.21b)/V(3.68b) * Rd(1.44%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.33 | Cagr: 2.58%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈151.4m ; Y1≈152.0m ; Y5≈161.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.70 (EV 2.50b - Net Debt 751.9m = Equity 1.75b / Shares 34.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.01 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 96.77 | Revenue CAGR: 65.56% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=-7.84% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-4.02% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.91 | Chg30d=-8.30% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-27.3% | GrowthRev=+21.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.05 | Chg30d=-11.43% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+59.8% | GrowthRev=+18.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -55% (up=1, down=7)