TSCO Stock Analysis: Tractor Supply | NASDAQ
Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 15.859m USD | 12M Return: -45.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 366M
EPS Trend: 19.9%
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 86.5%
Qual. Beats: -2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is a U.S. rural lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, and rural customers through a chain of physical stores and e-commerce websites. The companys merchandise spans livestock and equine feed and equipment, companion animal products, seasonal and outdoor power equipment, truck and tool/hardware items, and clothing, gift, and décor. Its product mix reflects a hybrid specialty retail model that combines farm-and-ranch supplies, pet care, and home/outdoor goods under one roof, positioning it within the Consumer Discretionary sectors Other Specialty Retail sub-industry.
The company sells primarily under its own private-label brands-including 4health, Paws & Claws, Dumor, Red Shed, Traveller, and Producers Pride-as well as under exclusive and national labels. Retail banners include Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home, supported by the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com online platforms. This multi-banner, omnichannel approach, anchored by a large store footprint and a deep private-label portfolio, is a common strategy in specialty retail aimed at building customer loyalty and differentiating from general-merchandise competitors.
Founded in 1938 and headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, Tractor Supply has grown into a large-cap specialty retailer listed on the NASDAQ since its 1994 IPO. Its focus on the rural lifestyle customer segment-encompassing hobby farmers, equestrian owners, pet owners, and homeowners with land-defines a niche that has historically been less directly exposed to urban retail cycles and competitive pressure from big-box and online generalists.
- Comparable store sales drive quarterly revenue and margin growth
- Tariff exposure pressures gross margins on imported seasonal goods
- Petsense store expansion broadens addressable pet retail market
| Net Income: 1.08b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.11% < 20% (prev 7.06%; Δ 0.05% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.51b > Net Income 1.08b |
| Net Debt (10.5b) to EBITDA (1.95b): 5.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.38 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (528.1m) vs 12m ago -1.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.46% > 18% (prev 36.32%; Δ -3.86% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 142.0% > 50% (prev 144.0%; Δ -2.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 21.16 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.45b / Interest Expense TTM 68.6m) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 4.04b - Total Current Liabilities 2.93b) / Total Assets 11.7b |
| B: 0.65 (Retained Earnings 7.56b / Total Assets 11.7b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.45b / Avg Total Assets 11.0b) |
| D: 0.27 (Book Value of Equity 2.51b / Total Liabilities 9.15b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.91 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.50 (Receivables 11.3m/21.6m, Revenue 15.6b/15.0b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 36.32% / 32.46%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 15.6b / 15.0b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 1.08b - CFO 1.51b) / TA 11.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.39 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.43 with a total of 5,074,095 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.19%, over one month by -1.10%, over three months by -31.87% and over the past year by -45.92%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.50 (which is 6.3% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Tractor Supply has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TSCO.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 44.8 | 47.2% |
P/E Trailing = 14.8966
P/E Forward = 14.771
P/S = 1.0644
P/B = 6.6262
P/EG = 1.4069
Revenue TTM = 15.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.45b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.95b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.13b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 462.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.28b
Net Debt = 10.5b USD (calculated: Debt 10.7b - CCE 224.3m)
Enterprise Value = 26.3b USD (15.9b + Debt 10.7b - CCE 224.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 21.16 (Ebit TTM 1.45b / Interest Expense TTM 68.6m)
EV/FCF = 47.56x (Enterprise Value 26.3b / FCF TTM 553.5m)
FCF Yield = 2.10% (FCF TTM 553.5m / Enterprise Value 26.3b)
FCF Margin = 3.54% (FCF TTM 553.5m / Revenue TTM 15.6b)
Net Margin = 6.91% (Net Income TTM 1.08b / Revenue TTM 15.6b)
Gross Margin = 32.46% ((Revenue TTM 15.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.6b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.70% (prev 25.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.26 (Enterprise Value 26.3b / Total Assets 11.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.64% (Interest Expense 68.6m / Debt 10.7b)
Taxrate = 21.82% (301.8m / 1.38b)
NOPAT = 1.13b (EBIT 1.45b * (1 - 21.82%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 4.04b / Total Current Liabilities 2.93b)
Debt / Equity = 4.25 (Debt 10.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.51b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.36 (Net Debt 10.5b / EBITDA 1.95b)
Debt / FCF = 18.91 (Net Debt 10.5b / FCF TTM 553.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.81% (Net Income 1.08b / Total Assets 11.7b)
RoE = 42.57% (Net Income TTM 1.08b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.54b)
RoCE = 31.12% (EBIT 1.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.54b + L.T.Debt 2.13b))
RoIC = 12.65% (NOPAT 1.13b / Invested Capital 8.97b)
WACC = 5.14% (E(15.9b)/V(26.6b) * Re(8.27%) + D(10.7b)/V(26.6b) * Rd(0.64%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -91.11 | Cagr: -1.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.03% ; FCFF base≈576.9m ; Y1≈532.7m ; Y5≈477.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.56b - Net Debt 10.5b = -2.90b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 19.91 | EPS CAGR: 0.27% | SUE: -1.37 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 86.51 | Revenue CAGR: 2.30% | SUE: -1.09 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.85 | Chg30d=-0.94% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=21
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.50 | Chg30d=-0.95% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.11 | Chg30d=-0.71% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+2.5% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.29 | Chg30d=-0.74% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -72% (up=1, down=14)