TSLA Stock Analysis: Tesla | NASDAQ
Auto Manufacturers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.481.080m USD | 12M Return: -14.5% | US88160R1014 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.4B
EPS Trend: -95.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 37.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) designs, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems across the United States, China, and other international markets. The company reports two segments: Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage.
The Automotive segment includes sedans and sport utility vehicles sold directly to consumers and through used-vehicle channels, supported by Teslas proprietary Supercharger network, in-app software upgrades, purchase financing and leasing, and a service network combining company-owned locations with mobile technicians. The segment also generates revenue from automotive regulatory credits, parts, retail merchandise, non-warranty maintenance, collision services, insurance, and extended service plans.
The Energy Generation and Storage segment offers lithium-ion battery products (Powerwall and Megapack), solar panels, and the Solar Roof to residential, commercial, industrial, and utility customers. Distribution occurs through Teslas website, stores, and galleries as well as third-party channel partners, with related financing, installation, warranty, and repair services. Across both segments, Tesla develops self-driving and AI software, vehicle control and infotainment software, and proprietary battery and powertrain technology. Originally incorporated in 2003 as Tesla Motors, the company was renamed Tesla, Inc. in February 2017 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Tesla operates within the GICS Consumer Discretionary sector and Automobile Manufacturers sub-industry. It differentiates from traditional peers through a direct-to-consumer sales model that bypasses franchised dealerships, and through its unusual vertical integration of vehicle production with energy storage and in-house AI and battery development.
- EV price war compresses automotive margins amid demand softness
- Energy storage deployments and Megapack backlog accelerate revenue mix shift
- Regulatory credit revenue declines as legacy OEMs meet emissions targets
| Net Income: 3.82b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.17% < 20% (prev 33.57%; Δ -1.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 18.7b > Net Income 3.82b |
| Net Debt (-27.2b) to EBITDA (12.0b): -2.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (3.54b) vs 12m ago 0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.85% > 18% (prev 17.48%; Δ 1.37% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 74.79% > 50% (prev 72.12%; Δ 2.67% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 16.62 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.55b / Interest Expense TTM 334.0m) |
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 68.8b - Total Current Liabilities 35.4b) / Total Assets 149b |
| B: 0.27 (Retained Earnings 40.6b / Total Assets 149b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 5.55b / Avg Total Assets 139b) |
| D: 1.42 (Book Value of Equity 86.9b / Total Liabilities 61.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.13 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 4.09b/3.84b, Revenue 104b/92.7b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 17.48% / 18.85%) |
| AQI: 1.44 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 104b / 92.7b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 3.82b - CFO 18.7b) / TA 149b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 367.16 with a total of 30,868,569 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.82%, over one month by +2.28%, over three months by -7.32% and over the past year by -14.46%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 352.60 (which is 4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Tesla has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.65. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TSLA.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 20
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 392.4 | 6.9% |
P/E Trailing = 347.2222
P/E Forward = 158.7302
P/S = 14.2935
P/B = 17.2846
P/EG = 4.5442
Revenue TTM = 104b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.55b USD
EBITDA TTM = 12.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.42b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.02b
Net Debt = -27.2b USD (calculated: Debt 16.4b - CCE 43.5b)
Enterprise Value = 1454b USD (1481b + Debt 16.4b - CCE 43.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 16.62 (Ebit TTM 5.55b / Interest Expense TTM 334.0m)
EV/FCF = 252.3x (Enterprise Value 1454b / FCF TTM 5.76b)
FCF Yield = 0.40% (FCF TTM 5.76b / Enterprise Value 1454b)
FCF Margin = 5.56% (FCF TTM 5.76b / Revenue TTM 104b)
Net Margin = 3.68% (Net Income TTM 3.82b / Revenue TTM 104b)
Gross Margin = 18.85% ((Revenue TTM 104b - Cost of Revenue TTM 84.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.83% (prev 21.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.79 (Enterprise Value 1454b / Total Assets 149b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.04% (Interest Expense 334.0m / Debt 16.4b)
Taxrate = 25.93% (1.35b / 5.22b)
NOPAT = 4.11b (EBIT 5.55b * (1 - 25.93%))
Current Ratio = 1.94 (Total Current Assets 68.8b / Total Current Liabilities 35.4b)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 16.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 86.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.26 (Net Debt -27.2b / EBITDA 12.0b)
Debt / FCF = -4.71 (Net Debt -27.2b / FCF TTM 5.76b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 83.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.76% (Net Income 3.82b / Total Assets 149b)
RoE = 4.59% (Net Income TTM 3.82b / Total Stockholder Equity 83.3b)
RoCE = 6.10% (EBIT 5.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 83.3b + L.T.Debt 7.72b))
RoIC = 3.76% (NOPAT 4.11b / Invested Capital 109b)
WACC = 14.35% (E(1481b)/V(1497b) * Re(14.49%) + D(16.4b)/V(1497b) * Rd(2.04%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 14.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.16 | Cagr: 0.71%
[DCF] Terminal Value 57.99% ; FCFF base≈5.69b ; Y1≈5.86b ; Y5≈6.54b
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.52 (EV 49.9b - Net Debt -27.2b = Equity 77.1b / Shares 3.95b; r=14.35% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.15% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -95.53 | EPS CAGR: -22.13% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.92 | Revenue CAGR: 1.14% | SUE: 1.55 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=26
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.74 | Chg30d=-1.51% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+4.9% | GrowthRev=+12.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.15 | Chg30d=-0.60% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+23.2% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=3, down=12)