TWFG Stock Analysis: TWFG, Common Stock | NASDAQ
Insurance Brokers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 351m USD | 12M Return: 18.5% | US87318A1016 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.34M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 2.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
TWFG, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWFG) operates an independent insurance distribution platform in the United States, offering a broad portfolio of personal and commercial products. Its lineup spans auto, home, renters, life, health, motorcycle, umbrella, boat, recreational vehicle, flood, wind, event, luxury item, general liability, property, business auto, workers compensation, business owner policy, and professional liability coverage, along with commercial bonds and group benefits. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the company went public on July 18, 2024, and is classified within the Financials sector under the Multi-line Insurance sub-industry, with a small-cap market capitalization of approximately $311 million.
Independent insurance agencies like TWFG function as intermediaries, placing coverage with multiple carriers on behalf of policyholders rather than underwriting risk themselves. The U.S. insurance distribution market remains highly fragmented, with thousands of independent agencies competing alongside captive agents and direct-to-consumer channels.
- Commission revenue grows on expanding carrier appointments and producer count
- Commercial lines premium volume accelerates with small business formation
- Catastrophe losses pressure carrier commission rates and placement capacity
| Net Income: 8.80m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.52% < 20% (prev 78.70%; Δ -42.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 60.8m > Net Income 8.80m |
| Net Debt (-61.5m) to EBITDA (84.4m): -0.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.56 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (13.1m) vs 12m ago -13.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.35% > 18% (prev 23.13%; Δ 4.21% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 81.18% > 50% (prev 60.46%; Δ 20.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 235.5 > 6 (EBIT TTM 60.1m / Interest Expense TTM 255k) |
| A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 170.5m - Total Current Liabilities 66.6m) / Total Assets 358.4m |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 27.4m / Total Assets 358.4m) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 60.1m / Avg Total Assets 350.6m) |
| D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 46.2m / Total Liabilities 71.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.98 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.29 (Receivables 61.1m/34.6m, Revenue 284.6m/207.3m) |
| GMI: 0.85 (GM 23.13% / 27.35%) |
| AQI: 1.35 (AQ_t 0.50 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 284.6m / 207.3m) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI 8.80m - CFO 60.8m) / TA 358.4m) |
| Beneish M = -2.47 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.60 with a total of 136,540 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.48%, over one month by +16.21%, over three months by +4.49% and over the past year by +18.48%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.20 (which is 11.9% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
TWFG, Common Stock has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TWFG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 30.6 | 6.9% |
P/E Trailing = 49.5455
P/E Forward = 23.6407
P/S = 1.1909
P/B = 8.1104
Revenue TTM = 284.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 60.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 84.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.02m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.23m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.61m
Net Debt = -61.5m USD (calculated: Debt 12.3m - CCE 73.7m)
Enterprise Value = 289.5m USD (351.0m + Debt 12.3m - CCE 73.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 235.5 (Ebit TTM 60.1m / Interest Expense TTM 255k)
EV/FCF = 6.43x (Enterprise Value 289.5m / FCF TTM 45.0m)
FCF Yield = 15.54% (FCF TTM 45.0m / Enterprise Value 289.5m)
FCF Margin = 15.81% (FCF TTM 45.0m / Revenue TTM 284.6m)
Net Margin = 3.09% (Net Income TTM 8.80m / Revenue TTM 284.6m)
Gross Margin = 27.35% ((Revenue TTM 284.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 206.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.10% (prev 32.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 289.5m / Total Assets 358.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.08% (Interest Expense 255k / Debt 12.3m)
Taxrate = 6.97% (4.17m / 59.8m)
NOPAT = 55.9m (EBIT 60.1m * (1 - 6.97%))
Current Ratio = 2.56 (Total Current Assets 170.5m / Total Current Liabilities 66.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 12.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 46.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.73 (Net Debt -61.5m / EBITDA 84.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.37 (Net Debt -61.5m / FCF TTM 45.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 69.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.51% (Net Income 8.80m / Total Assets 358.4m)
RoE = 12.67% (Net Income TTM 8.80m / Total Stockholder Equity 69.4m)
RoCE = 85.23% (EBIT 60.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 69.4m + L.T.Debt 1.02m))
RoIC = 19.90% (NOPAT 55.9m / Invested Capital 280.8m)
WACC = 4.27% (E(351.0m)/V(363.2m) * Re(4.35%) + D(12.3m)/V(363.2m) * Rd(2.08%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 4.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 52.67 | Cagr: -0.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.51% ; FCFF base≈44.9m ; Y1≈45.3m ; Y5≈48.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 63.17 (EV 752.1m - Net Debt -61.5m = Equity 813.6m / Shares 12.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.53% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.76 | Revenue CAGR: 18.37% | SUE: 2.53 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.74% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=+1.54% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+32.6% | GrowthRev=+27.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=+1.68% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+1.5% | GrowthRev=+15.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=6, down=1)