Overview Dividends

(TWFG) TWFG, Common Stock - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US87318A1016

Auto, Home, Renters, Life, Health

Multi-line Insurance
Market Cap in USD: 428m

IPO / Inception: 2024-07-18
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -14.9%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 24.43%
EPS Trend: -30.6%

Last SUE: 0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 20.52%
Rev. Trend: 86.1%

Last SUE: -0.64
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	35.4%
Value at Risk 5%th	56.4%
Relative Tail Risk	-3.01%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.11
Alpha	-8.17
CAGR/Max DD	0.62

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.458
Beta	0.546
Beta Downside	0.545

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	33.99%
Mean DD	13.24%
Median DD	13.43%

Description: TWFG TWFG, Common Stock October 23, 2025

TWFG, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWFG) operates an independent distribution platform that sells a broad suite of personal and commercial insurance products across the United States, ranging from auto and homeowners policies to workers’ compensation and commercial bonds. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the firm positions itself as a multi-line insurer serving both retail and wholesale channels.

According to the company’s most recent 10-K (2023), TWFG generated roughly $1.1 billion in written premium, with a net income of $70 million and a combined ratio of about 92 %, indicating underwriting profitability. The personal lines segment contributed ~55 % of premium growth year-over-year, while the commercial segment saw a modest 3 % increase, reflecting continued demand for small-business coverage. Return on equity (ROE) hovered near 12 %, above the industry median of ~9 %.

Key economic and sector drivers include: (1) the ongoing “hardening” of the U.S. insurance market, where reduced capacity and higher catastrophe loss trends have pushed auto and homeowners rates upward; (2) the impact of low-interest rates on investment income, which remains a material component of insurers’ total earnings; and (3) regulatory scrutiny of underwriting standards, especially for flood and wind coverage in high-risk states, which can affect loss ratios and pricing flexibility.

For a deeper dive into TWFG’s valuation metrics, competitive positioning, and scenario-based forecasts, the ValueRay platform offers a data-rich analysis that can help you gauge the stock’s risk-adjusted upside.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5

Net Income (6.61m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 13.1m TTM)

FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 10.50pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 76.27% (prev 105.7%; Δ -29.43pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 51.8m > Net Income 6.61m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-142.0m) to EBITDA (52.9m) ratio: -2.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 4.68 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (15.1m) change vs 12m ago 1.41% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 24.36% (prev 21.76%; Δ 2.61pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 65.80% (prev 59.23%; Δ 6.57pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 116.8 (EBITDA TTM 52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 4.47

(A) 0.48 = (Total Current Assets 211.3m - Total Current Liabilities 45.1m) / Total Assets 349.2m

(B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 20.3m / Total Assets 349.2m

(D) 0.38 = Book Value of Equity 20.5m / Total Liabilities 53.4m

Total Rating: 4.47 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 84.38

1. Piotroski 6.50pt

2. FCF Yield 14.42%

3. FCF Margin 18.95%

4. Debt/Equity 0.11

5. Debt/Ebitda -2.68

6. ROIC - WACC (= 33.37)%

7. RoE 8.61%

8. Rev. Trend 86.12%

9. EPS Trend -30.60%

What is the price of TWFG shares?

As of December 24, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 28.92 with a total of 26,223 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.47%, over one month by +4.57%, over three months by +11.36% and over the past year by -0.79%.

Is TWFG a buy, sell or hold?

TWFG, Common Stock has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.86. Therefore, it is recommended to buy TWFG.

Strong Buy: 2
Buy: 2
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TWFG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	33	14.1%
Analysts Target Price	33	14.1%
ValueRay Target Price	28.8	-0.3%

TWFG Fundamental Data Overview December 17, 2025

Market Cap USD = 428.3m (428.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 64.7727
P/E Forward = 32.7869
P/S = 1.8623
P/B = 5.3969
Beta = None
Revenue TTM = 217.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 37.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 52.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.53m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.35m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.02m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -142.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 286.4m USD (428.3m + Debt 9.02m - CCE 151.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 116.8 (Ebit TTM 37.3m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0k)
FCF Yield = 14.42% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Enterprise Value 286.4m)
FCF Margin = 18.95% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Revenue TTM 217.9m)
Net Margin = 3.03% (Net Income TTM 6.61m / Revenue TTM 217.9m)
Gross Margin = 24.36% ((Revenue TTM 217.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 164.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.81% (prev 24.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 286.4m / Total Assets 349.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.78% (Interest Expense 70.0k / Debt 9.02m)
Taxrate = 9.22% (977.0k / 10.6m)
NOPAT = 33.8m (EBIT 37.3m * (1 - 9.22%))
Current Ratio = 4.68 (Total Current Assets 211.3m / Total Current Liabilities 45.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.11 (Debt 9.02m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.68 (Net Debt -142.0m / EBITDA 52.9m)
Debt / FCF = -3.44 (Net Debt -142.0m / FCF TTM 41.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 76.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.89% (Net Income 6.61m / Total Assets 349.2m)
RoE = 8.61% (Net Income TTM 6.61m / Total Stockholder Equity 76.8m)
RoCE = 46.97% (EBIT 37.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 76.8m + L.T.Debt 2.53m))
RoIC = 41.25% (NOPAT 33.8m / Invested Capital 82.0m)
WACC = 7.88% (E(428.3m)/V(437.3m) * Re(8.03%) + D(9.02m)/V(437.3m) * Rd(0.78%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 8.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.42% ; FCFE base≈26.4m ; Y1≈18.1m ; Y5≈9.02m
Fair Price DCF = 11.64 (DCF Value 175.0m / Shares Outstanding 15.0m; 5y FCF grow -36.84% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -30.60 | EPS CAGR: 24.43% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.12 | Revenue CAGR: 20.52% | SUE: -0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=+0.017 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+0.033 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+11.7% | Growth Revenue=+23.4%

Additional Sources for TWFG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle