(UAL) United Airlines Holdings - Overview
Stock: Passenger Flights, Cargo Transport, Maintenance Services
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.38 |
| Alpha | -21.81 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.157 |
| Beta Downside | 1.959 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 49.19% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.65 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: UAL United Airlines Holdings February 11, 2026
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UAL) operates a global network of passenger and cargo flights across North America, the Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America, supplemented by ancillary services such as ground handling, a flight academy, third-party maintenance, and a frequent-flyer program that includes non-travel redemptions. The firm, originally incorporated in 1968 and renamed from United Continental Holdings in June 2019, is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Recent performance metrics (Q4 2025) show a load factor of 86 %-slightly above the industry average of 84 %-and revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK) growth of 4.5 % YoY, driven by a rebound in business travel. Operating margin improved to 6.2 % (vs 5.8 % in Q4 2024) as the airline trimmed fuel hedging costs to $3.10 per gallon amid lower Brent crude prices. Cargo revenue rose 12 % YoY, reflecting sustained demand for e-commerce logistics, while unit labor costs increased 3 % YoY, a risk factor given ongoing pilot and crew shortages. The broader passenger-airline sector remains sensitive to macro-variables such as oil price volatility, Federal Reserve interest-rate policy (which influences consumer discretionary spending), and the pace of post-pandemic travel recovery.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of United’s valuation dynamics, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 3.35b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -15.70% < 20% (prev -7.77%; Δ -7.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 8.43b > Net Income 3.35b |
| Net Debt (30.51b) to EBITDA (7.54b): 4.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (327.0m) vs 12m ago -2.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 64.12% > 18% (prev 0.29%; Δ 6383 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 78.48% > 50% (prev 77.03%; Δ 1.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.77 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 7.54b / Interest Expense TTM 1.22b) |
Altman Z'' 0.26
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 16.86b - Total Current Liabilities 26.13b) / Total Assets 76.45b |
| B: 0.12 (Retained Earnings 9.05b / Total Assets 76.45b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 4.60b / Avg Total Assets 75.27b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 15.28b / Total Liabilities 61.17b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.26 = B |
Beneish M -3.57
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 2.39b/2.16b, Revenue 59.07b/57.06b) |
| GMI: 0.45 (GM 64.12% / 28.90%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 59.07b / 57.06b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 3.35b - CFO 8.43b) / TA 76.45b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.57 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of UAL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.07%, over one month by -1.17%, over three months by +20.00% and over the past year by +10.29%.
Is UAL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 16
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the UAL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 138.9 | 21.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 138.9 | 21.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 131.2 | 15.2% |
UAL Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.2372
P/S = 0.5814
P/B = 2.3193
P/EG = 6.5389
Revenue TTM = 59.07b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.60b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.54b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.81b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 5.06b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 36.45b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 30.51b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 58.56b USD (34.35b + Debt 36.45b - CCE 12.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.77 (Ebit TTM 4.60b / Interest Expense TTM 1.22b)
EV/FCF = 22.90x (Enterprise Value 58.56b / FCF TTM 2.56b)
FCF Yield = 4.37% (FCF TTM 2.56b / Enterprise Value 58.56b)
FCF Margin = 4.33% (FCF TTM 2.56b / Revenue TTM 59.07b)
Net Margin = 5.68% (Net Income TTM 3.35b / Revenue TTM 59.07b)
Gross Margin = 64.12% ((Revenue TTM 59.07b - Cost of Revenue TTM 21.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.14% (prev 64.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.77 (Enterprise Value 58.56b / Total Assets 76.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.89% (Interest Expense 324.0m / Debt 36.45b)
Taxrate = 21.21% (281.0m / 1.32b)
NOPAT = 3.62b (EBIT 4.60b * (1 - 21.21%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 16.86b / Total Current Liabilities 26.13b)
Debt / Equity = 2.39 (Debt 36.45b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.05 (Net Debt 30.51b / EBITDA 7.54b)
Debt / FCF = 11.93 (Net Debt 30.51b / FCF TTM 2.56b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.45% (Net Income 3.35b / Total Assets 76.45b)
RoE = 24.13% (Net Income TTM 3.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.90b)
RoCE = 13.25% (EBIT 4.60b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.90b + L.T.Debt 20.81b))
RoIC = 9.02% (NOPAT 3.62b / Invested Capital 40.16b)
WACC = 7.08% (E(34.35b)/V(70.80b) * Re(13.86%) + D(36.45b)/V(70.80b) * Rd(0.89%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.60% ; FCFF base≈3.07b ; Y1≈2.01b ; Y5≈918.4m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 21.50b - Net Debt 30.51b = -9.01b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 44.87 | EPS CAGR: 138.0% | SUE: 1.40 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 71.26 | Revenue CAGR: 20.86% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=+0.254 | Revisions Net=+10 | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.34 | Chg30d=+0.470 | Revisions Net=+12 | Growth EPS=+25.6% | Growth Revenue=+8.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=15.29 | Chg30d=+0.809 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+14.6% | Growth Revenue=+6.7%