UFCS Stock Analysis: United Fire | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.384m USD | 12M Return: 90.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.39M
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
United Fire Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is a U.S.-based property and casualty insurance company headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and incorporated in 1946. The company underwrites a broad range of P&C products, including fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers compensation, surety bonds, and specialty coverages such as marine, professional liability, earthquake, and surplus lines, along with property and casualty reinsurance.
UFCS focuses on serving small business owners and middle market customers across industries like construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. As is common in the P&C insurance sector, the company distributes its products exclusively through a network of independent agents rather than captive or direct channels, and it generates revenue primarily through premiums collected and investment income from policyholder funds.
- Severe weather catastrophe losses pressure combined ratio
- Net investment income rises on higher interest rates
- Commercial lines premium growth accelerates in core Midwest markets
| Net Income: 130.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -35.14% < 20% (prev -138.4%; Δ 103.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 290.7m > Net Income 130.5m |
| Net Debt (-1.19b) to EBITDA (187.3m): -6.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.1m) vs 12m ago -0.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.16% > 18% (prev 18.60%; Δ 15.57% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.34% > 50% (prev 36.48%; Δ 1.86% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.71 > 6 (EBIT TTM 176.1m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 2.16b - Total Current Liabilities 2.66b) / Total Assets 3.91b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 747.3m / Total Assets 3.91b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 176.1m / Avg Total Assets 3.72b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 950.6m / Total Liabilities 2.96b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.44 = B |
| DSRI: 1.58 (Receivables 793.3m/452.6m, Revenue 1.43b/1.29b) |
| GMI: 0.54 (GM 18.60% / 34.16%) |
| AQI: 0.53 (AQ_t 0.41 / AQ_t-1 0.78) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.43b / 1.29b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 130.5m - CFO 290.7m) / TA 3.91b) |
| Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 51.95 with a total of 134,001 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.75%, over one month by +12.15%, over three months by +31.82% and over the past year by +90.62%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 48.40 (which is 6.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
United Fire has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UFCS.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 51 | -1.8% |
P/E Trailing = 10.873
P/E Forward = 14.1044
P/S = 0.9712
P/B = 1.4418
P/EG = 1.4105
Revenue TTM = 1.43b USD
EBIT TTM = 176.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 187.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 146.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.61m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 146.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.19b USD (calculated: Debt 146.3m - CCE 1.34b)
Enterprise Value = 192.8m USD (1.38b + Debt 146.3m - CCE 1.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.71 (Ebit TTM 176.1m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m)
EV/FCF = 0.67x (Enterprise Value 192.8m / FCF TTM 286.4m)
FCF Yield = 148.5% (FCF TTM 286.4m / Enterprise Value 192.8m)
FCF Margin = 20.08% (FCF TTM 286.4m / Revenue TTM 1.43b)
Net Margin = 9.16% (Net Income TTM 130.5m / Revenue TTM 1.43b)
Gross Margin = 34.16% ((Revenue TTM 1.43b - Cost of Revenue TTM 938.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.67% (prev 47.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 192.8m / Total Assets 3.91b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.18% (Interest Expense 12.0m / Debt 146.3m)
Taxrate = 20.45% (33.6m / 164.1m)
NOPAT = 140.1m (EBIT 176.1m * (1 - 20.45%))
Current Ratio = 0.81 (Total Current Assets 2.16b / Total Current Liabilities 2.66b)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 146.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 950.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.36 (Net Debt -1.19b / EBITDA 187.3m)
Debt / FCF = -4.16 (Net Debt -1.19b / FCF TTM 286.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 909.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.51% (Net Income 130.5m / Total Assets 3.91b)
RoE = 14.36% (Net Income TTM 130.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 909.0m)
RoCE = 16.68% (EBIT 176.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 909.0m + L.T.Debt 146.3m))
RoIC = 11.83% (NOPAT 140.1m / Invested Capital 1.18b)
WACC = 7.68% (E(1.38b)/V(1.53b) * Re(7.80%) + D(146.3m)/V(1.53b) * Rd(8.18%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 71.91 | Cagr: 1.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.51% ; FCFF base≈303.0m ; Y1≈271.7m ; Y5≈229.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 189.2 (EV 3.66b - Net Debt -1.19b = Equity 4.85b / Shares 25.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -12.71% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.15 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 99.61 | Revenue CAGR: 11.85% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.69 | Chg30d=+101.45% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.31 | Chg30d=+4.37% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=+26.78% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1.2% | GrowthRev=+11.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=+21.45% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-0.3% | GrowthRev=+16.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)