UFCS Stock Analysis: United Fire | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.379m USD | 12M Return: 76% | US9103401082 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.40M
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
United Fire Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is a U.S.-based property and casualty insurance company headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and incorporated in 1946. The company underwrites a broad range of P&C products, including fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers compensation, surety bonds, and specialty coverages such as marine, professional liability, earthquake, and surplus lines, along with property and casualty reinsurance.
UFCS focuses on serving small business owners and middle market customers across industries like construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. As is common in the P&C insurance sector, the company distributes its products exclusively through a network of independent agents rather than captive or direct channels, and it generates revenue primarily through premiums collected and investment income from policyholder funds.
- Severe weather catastrophe losses pressure combined ratio
- Net investment income rises on higher interest rates
- Commercial lines premium growth accelerates in core Midwest markets
| Net Income: 141.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -130.5% < 20% (prev -41.64%; Δ -88.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 271.6m > Net Income 141.0m |
| Net Debt (6.91m) to EBITDA (282.2m): 0.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (25.9m) vs 12m ago -1.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.06% > 18% (prev 20.82%; Δ 19.24% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.38% > 50% (prev 36.12%; Δ 2.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.96 > 6 (EBIT TTM 189.5m / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m) |
| A: -0.48 (Total Current Assets 739.1m - Total Current Liabilities 2.66b) / Total Assets 4.01b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 775.4m / Total Assets 4.01b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 189.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.84b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 977.3m / Total Liabilities 3.04b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.84 = D |
| DSRI: 0.69 (Receivables 599.7m/782.8m, Revenue 1.47b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 0.52 (GM 20.82% / 40.06%) |
| AQI: 1.89 (AQ_t 0.78 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.47b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 141.0m - CFO 271.6m) / TA 4.01b) |
| Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 53.93 with a total of 109,598 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.99%, over one month by +5.07%, over three months by +14.76% and over the past year by +76.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 51.20 (which is 5.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
United Fire has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UFCS.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 58.5 | 8.5% |
P/E Trailing = 9.9518
P/E Forward = 14.1044
P/S = 0.9361
P/B = 1.4027
P/EG = 1.4105
Revenue TTM = 1.47b USD
EBIT TTM = 189.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 282.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 146.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.61m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 146.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.91m USD (calculated: Debt 146.3m - CCE 139.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.39b USD (1.38b + Debt 146.3m - CCE 139.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.96 (Ebit TTM 189.5m / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m)
EV/FCF = 5.16x (Enterprise Value 1.39b / FCF TTM 268.4m)
FCF Yield = 19.37% (FCF TTM 268.4m / Enterprise Value 1.39b)
FCF Margin = 18.22% (FCF TTM 268.4m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Net Margin = 9.57% (Net Income TTM 141.0m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Gross Margin = 40.06% ((Revenue TTM 1.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 882.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.68% (prev 43.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.35 (Enterprise Value 1.39b / Total Assets 4.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.66% (Interest Expense 12.7m / Debt 146.3m)
Taxrate = 20.29% (35.9m / 176.8m)
NOPAT = 151.1m (EBIT 189.5m * (1 - 20.29%))
Current Ratio = 0.28 (Total Current Assets 739.1m / Total Current Liabilities 2.66b)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 146.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 977.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.02 (Net Debt 6.91m / EBITDA 282.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.03 (Net Debt 6.91m / FCF TTM 268.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 942.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.67% (Net Income 141.0m / Total Assets 4.01b)
RoE = 14.96% (Net Income TTM 141.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 942.0m)
RoCE = 17.41% (EBIT 189.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 942.0m + L.T.Debt 146.3m))
RoIC = 3.83% (NOPAT 151.1m / Invested Capital 3.95b)
WACC = 6.49% (E(1.38b)/V(1.53b) * Re(6.45%) + D(146.3m)/V(1.53b) * Rd(8.66%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 53.88 | Cagr: 0.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.29% ; FCFF base≈277.7m ; Y1≈260.3m ; Y5≈240.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 147.3 (EV 3.79b - Net Debt 6.91m = Equity 3.79b / Shares 25.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -7.95% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.16 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 99.65 | Revenue CAGR: 12.01% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.19 | Chg30d=-9.51% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.99 | Chg30d=+9.79% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+15.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.84 | Chg30d=+6.84% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-3.0% | GrowthRev=+19.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +44% (up=5, down=1)