UFCS Stock Analysis: United Fire | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.404m USD | 12M Return: 84.7% | US9103401082 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.02M
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) is a U.S.-based property and casualty insurance company headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, operating since its incorporation in 1946. The company writes a broad range of coverages-including fire and allied lines, liability, automobile, workers compensation, surety bonds, marine specialty, professional liability, earthquake, and specialty/surplus lines-targeting small business owners and middle-market customers across industries such as construction, services, retail trade, financial, and manufacturing. In addition to primary insurance, the company provides reinsurance coverage and distributes its products exclusively through a network of independent agencies, a widely used distribution channel within the property and casualty insurance sector.
- Catastrophe losses pressure underwriting combined ratio
- Higher interest rates boost investment portfolio income
- Small business premium growth accelerates across core segments
| Net Income: 141.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -130.5% < 20% (prev -41.64%; Δ -88.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 271.6m > Net Income 141.0m |
| Net Debt (6.91m) to EBITDA (282.2m): 0.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (25.9m) vs 12m ago -1.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.06% > 18% (prev 20.82%; Δ 19.24% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.38% > 50% (prev 36.12%; Δ 2.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.96 > 6 (EBIT TTM 189.5m / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m) |
| A: -0.48 (Total Current Assets 739.1m - Total Current Liabilities 2.66b) / Total Assets 4.01b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 775.4m / Total Assets 4.01b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 189.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.84b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 977.3m / Total Liabilities 3.04b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.84 = D |
| DSRI: 0.69 (Receivables 599.7m/782.8m, Revenue 1.47b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 0.52 (GM 20.82% / 40.06%) |
| AQI: 1.89 (AQ_t 0.78 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 1.47b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 141.0m - CFO 271.6m) / TA 4.01b) |
| Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 56.40 with a total of 117,771 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.56%, over one month by +2.58%, over three months by +8.62% and over the past year by +84.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 54.20 (which is 3.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
United Fire has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UFCS.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 58.5 | 3.7% |
P/E Trailing = 10.1336
P/E Forward = 14.1044
P/S = 0.9532
P/B = 1.4119
P/EG = 1.4105
Revenue TTM = 1.47b USD
EBIT TTM = 189.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 282.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 146.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.61m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 146.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.91m USD (calculated: Debt 146.3m - CCE 139.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.41b USD (1.40b + Debt 146.3m - CCE 139.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.96 (Ebit TTM 189.5m / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m)
EV/FCF = 5.26x (Enterprise Value 1.41b / FCF TTM 268.4m)
FCF Yield = 19.03% (FCF TTM 268.4m / Enterprise Value 1.41b)
FCF Margin = 18.22% (FCF TTM 268.4m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Net Margin = 9.57% (Net Income TTM 141.0m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Gross Margin = 40.06% ((Revenue TTM 1.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 882.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.68% (prev 43.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.35 (Enterprise Value 1.41b / Total Assets 4.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.66% (Interest Expense 12.7m / Debt 146.3m)
Taxrate = 20.29% (35.9m / 176.8m)
NOPAT = 151.1m (EBIT 189.5m * (1 - 20.29%))
Current Ratio = 0.28 (Total Current Assets 739.1m / Total Current Liabilities 2.66b)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 146.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 977.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.02 (Net Debt 6.91m / EBITDA 282.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.03 (Net Debt 6.91m / FCF TTM 268.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 942.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.67% (Net Income 141.0m / Total Assets 4.01b)
RoE = 14.96% (Net Income TTM 141.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 942.0m)
RoCE = 17.41% (EBIT 189.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 942.0m + L.T.Debt 146.3m))
RoIC = 3.83% (NOPAT 151.1m / Invested Capital 3.95b)
WACC = 6.51% (E(1.40b)/V(1.55b) * Re(6.47%) + D(146.3m)/V(1.55b) * Rd(8.66%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 53.88 | Cagr: 0.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.29% ; FCFF base≈277.7m ; Y1≈260.3m ; Y5≈240.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 147.3 (EV 3.79b - Net Debt 6.91m = Equity 3.79b / Shares 25.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -7.95% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.16 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 99.65 | Revenue CAGR: 12.01% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.19 | Chg30d=-9.51% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.99 | Chg30d=+9.79% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+15.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.84 | Chg30d=+6.84% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-3.0% | GrowthRev=+19.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +44% (up=5, down=1)