(ULCC) Frontier Holdings - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US35909R1086
Stock: Low-Fare Flights
Total Rating 25
Risk 39
Buy Signal 0.75
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 82.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.12 |
| Alpha | -47.89 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.335 |
| Beta Downside | 2.246 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 75.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.23 |
Description: ULCC Frontier Holdings January 20, 2026
Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) operates a low-fare airline focused on leisure travelers across the United States and Latin America. It distributes tickets directly via its website, mobile app, and contact centers, and as of 31 Dec 2024 maintained a fleet of 159 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, primarily A320-family jets.
Key operational metrics that shape Frontier’s outlook include a 2024 load factor of roughly 84 %-above the industry average of 78 %-and ancillary revenue contributing about 30 % of total operating income, reflecting the ULCC model’s reliance on non-ticket fees. The airline’s unit revenue per available seat mile (RASM) has risen 5 % year-over-year, driven by strong domestic leisure demand and a modest rebound in Latin American routes, while fuel costs remain a primary expense, tracking the Brent crude price corridor of $85-$95 per barrel.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform provides granular, real-time analytics that can help you assess ULCC’s valuation relative to peers-worth a look if you’re building a data-driven thesis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -136.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -33.87% < 20% (prev -22.22%; Δ -11.65% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.05 > 3% & CFO -347.0m > Net Income -136.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (227.9m) vs 12m ago 0.99% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.23% > 18% (prev 0.08%; Δ 2515 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.54% > 50% (prev 62.89%; Δ -3.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -42.0m / Interest Expense TTM 19.0m) |
Altman Z'' -1.34
| A: -0.19 (Total Current Assets 847.0m - Total Current Liabilities 2.11b) / Total Assets 6.70b |
| B: 0.00 (Retained Earnings 6.00m / Total Assets 6.70b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -126.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.26b) |
| D: 0.03 (Book Value of Equity 190.0m / Total Liabilities 6.27b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.34 = CCC |
Beneish M -3.66
| DSRI: 0.61 (Receivables 93.0m/150.0m, Revenue 3.73b/3.66b) |
| GMI: 0.32 (GM 25.23% / 8.02%) |
| AQI: 1.45 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 3.73b / 3.66b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI -136.0m - CFO -347.0m) / TA 6.70b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.66 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of ULCC shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.52 with a total of 5,931,348 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +40.52%, over one month by +36.40%, over three months by +67.61% and over the past year by -19.41%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +40.52%, over one month by +36.40%, over three months by +67.61% and over the past year by -19.41%.
Is ULCC a buy, sell or hold?
Frontier Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold ULCC.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ULCC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.6 | -14.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.6 | -14.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.5 | 0% |
ULCC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.7266
P/S = 0.284
P/B = 2.6241
Revenue TTM = 3.73b USD
EBIT TTM = -126.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -42.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 305.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.08b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -566.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.52b USD (1.06b + Debt 5.03b - CCE 566.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.63 (Ebit TTM -126.0m / Interest Expense TTM 19.0m)
EV/FCF = -65.00x (Enterprise Value 5.52b / FCF TTM -85.0m)
FCF Yield = -1.54% (FCF TTM -85.0m / Enterprise Value 5.52b)
FCF Margin = -2.28% (FCF TTM -85.0m / Revenue TTM 3.73b)
Net Margin = -3.65% (Net Income TTM -136.0m / Revenue TTM 3.73b)
Gross Margin = 25.23% ((Revenue TTM 3.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.37% (prev 0.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 5.52b / Total Assets 6.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.30% (Interest Expense 15.0m / Debt 5.03b)
Taxrate = 1.16% (1.00m / 86.0m)
NOPAT = -124.5m (EBIT -126.0m * (1 - 1.16%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.40 (Total Current Assets 847.0m / Total Current Liabilities 2.11b)
Debt / Equity = 11.59 (Debt 5.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 434.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.48 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -566.0m / EBITDA -42.0m)
Debt / FCF = 6.66 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -566.0m / FCF TTM -85.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 528.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.17% (Net Income -136.0m / Total Assets 6.70b)
RoE = -25.73% (Net Income TTM -136.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 528.5m)
RoCE = -15.12% (EBIT -126.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 528.5m + L.T.Debt 305.0m))
RoIC = -11.45% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -124.5m / Invested Capital 1.09b)
WACC = 2.77% (E(1.06b)/V(6.09b) * Re(14.52%) + D(5.03b)/V(6.09b) * Rd(0.30%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 14.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.35%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -85.0m)
EPS Correlation: -7.49 | EPS CAGR: -8.98% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 60.82 | Revenue CAGR: 10.51% | SUE: -0.69 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.28 | Chg30d=-0.144 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+98.4% | Growth Revenue=+17.0%
P/S = 0.284
P/B = 2.6241
Revenue TTM = 3.73b USD
EBIT TTM = -126.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -42.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 305.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.08b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -566.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.52b USD (1.06b + Debt 5.03b - CCE 566.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.63 (Ebit TTM -126.0m / Interest Expense TTM 19.0m)
EV/FCF = -65.00x (Enterprise Value 5.52b / FCF TTM -85.0m)
FCF Yield = -1.54% (FCF TTM -85.0m / Enterprise Value 5.52b)
FCF Margin = -2.28% (FCF TTM -85.0m / Revenue TTM 3.73b)
Net Margin = -3.65% (Net Income TTM -136.0m / Revenue TTM 3.73b)
Gross Margin = 25.23% ((Revenue TTM 3.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.37% (prev 0.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 5.52b / Total Assets 6.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.30% (Interest Expense 15.0m / Debt 5.03b)
Taxrate = 1.16% (1.00m / 86.0m)
NOPAT = -124.5m (EBIT -126.0m * (1 - 1.16%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.40 (Total Current Assets 847.0m / Total Current Liabilities 2.11b)
Debt / Equity = 11.59 (Debt 5.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 434.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.48 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -566.0m / EBITDA -42.0m)
Debt / FCF = 6.66 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -566.0m / FCF TTM -85.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 528.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.17% (Net Income -136.0m / Total Assets 6.70b)
RoE = -25.73% (Net Income TTM -136.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 528.5m)
RoCE = -15.12% (EBIT -126.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 528.5m + L.T.Debt 305.0m))
RoIC = -11.45% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -124.5m / Invested Capital 1.09b)
WACC = 2.77% (E(1.06b)/V(6.09b) * Re(14.52%) + D(5.03b)/V(6.09b) * Rd(0.30%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 14.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.35%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -85.0m)
EPS Correlation: -7.49 | EPS CAGR: -8.98% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 60.82 | Revenue CAGR: 10.51% | SUE: -0.69 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.28 | Chg30d=-0.144 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+98.4% | Growth Revenue=+17.0%