ULCC Stock Analysis: Frontier Holdings | NASDAQ
Airlines | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.607m USD | 12M Return: 88% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 27.6M
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 80.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) is a U.S.-based low-fare passenger airline that primarily serves leisure travelers across the United States and Latin America. The company sells tickets directly to customers through its websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31, 2025, Frontier operated a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft.
Founded in 1994 and headquartered in Denver, Colorado, Frontier is classified within the Industrials sector under the Passenger Airlines sub-industry. The ULCC ticker reflects its positioning as an Ultra Low-Cost Carrier, a business model that typically relies on unbundled base fares with ancillary fees charged separately for services such as baggage, seat selection, and priority boarding, in order to keep headline ticket prices low.
- Jet fuel costs escalate, squeezing low-cost margins
- Leisure travel demand weakens on consumer spending pullback
- Ancillary revenue growth offsets fare pricing pressure
| Net Income: -386.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -22.46% < 20% (prev -32.11%; Δ 9.65% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -115.0m > Net Income -386.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last fiscal year (230.0m) vs prev 1.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.71% > 18% (prev 20.83%; Δ 0.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.35% > 50% (prev 57.91%; Δ 2.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -20.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM -440.0m / Interest Expense TTM 22.0m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 1.31b - Total Current Liabilities 2.24b) / Total Assets 7.24b |
| B: -0.04 (Retained Earnings -303.0m / Total Assets 7.24b) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -440.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.88b) |
| D: 0.02 (Book Value of Equity 136.0m / Total Liabilities 7.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.39 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 147.0m/117.0m, Revenue 4.15b/3.78b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 20.83% / 21.71%) |
| AQI: 0.03 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 4.15b / 3.78b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -386.0m - CFO -115.0m) / TA 7.24b) |
| Beneish M = -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.69 with a total of 4,927,058 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +26.07%, over one month by -1.54%, over three months by +88.02% and over the past year by +88.02%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.00 (which is 9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Frontier Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ULCC.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6.8 | -11.8% |
P/E Forward = 13.947
P/S = 0.3868
P/B = 11.003
Revenue TTM = 4.15b USD
EBIT TTM = -440.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -272.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 313.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.08b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 10.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 4.67b
Net Debt = 9.17b USD (calculated: Debt 10.1b - CCE 955.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.8b USD (1.61b + Debt 10.1b - CCE 955.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -20.0 (Ebit TTM -440.0m / Interest Expense TTM 22.0m)
EV/FCF = -539.0x (Enterprise Value 10.8b / FCF TTM -20.0m)
FCF Yield = -0.19% (FCF TTM -20.0m / Enterprise Value 10.8b)
FCF Margin = -0.48% (FCF TTM -20.0m / Revenue TTM 4.15b)
Net Margin = -9.29% (Net Income TTM -386.0m / Revenue TTM 4.15b)
Gross Margin = 21.71% ((Revenue TTM 4.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.25b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.40% (prev -20.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 10.8b / Total Assets 7.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.22% (Interest Expense 22.0m / Debt 10.1b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -347.6m (EBIT -440.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.58 (Total Current Assets 1.31b / Total Current Liabilities 2.24b)
Debt / Equity = 74.47 (Debt 10.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 136.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -33.72 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 9.17b / EBITDA -272.0m)
Debt / FCF = -458.6 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 9.17b / FCF TTM -20.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 320.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.61% (Net Income -386.0m / Total Assets 7.24b)
RoE = -120.3% (Net Income TTM -386.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 320.8m)
RoCE = -69.43% (EBIT -440.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 320.8m + L.T.Debt 313.0m))
RoIC = -5.92% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -347.6m / Invested Capital 5.88b)
WACC = 2.26% (E(1.61b)/V(11.7b) * Re(15.40%) + D(10.1b)/V(11.7b) * Rd(0.22%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.46 | Cagr: 1.59%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -20.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 80.22 | Revenue CAGR: 3.67% | SUE: 2.01 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=+55.04% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=+50.11% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+23.6% | GrowthRev=+29.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.40 | Chg30d=+66.42% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+187.3% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +61% (up=13, down=2)