(ULCC) Frontier Holdings - Overview

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Airlines | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 1.060m USD | Total Return: 40.2% in 12m

Air Tickets, Ancillary Fees, Cargo Transport
Total Rating 26
Safety 33
Buy Signal 0.46
Airlines
Industry Rotation: +35.6
Market Cap: 1.06B
Avg Turnover: 24.2M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility86.0%
VaR 5th Pctl13.7%
VaR vs Median-3.46%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.76
Rel. Str. IBD78.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group91.7
Character TTM
Beta2.830
Beta Downside3.483
Hurst Exponent0.497
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD72.90%
CAGR/Max DD-0.16
CAGR/Mean DD-0.24
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ULCC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -0.86, "2021-06": -0.24, "2021-09": -0.11, "2021-12": -0.24, "2022-03": -0.56, "2022-06": 0.09, "2022-09": 0.15, "2022-12": 0.18, "2023-03": -0.06, "2023-06": 0.31, "2023-09": -0.14, "2023-12": 0.0045, "2024-03": -0.09, "2024-06": 0.14, "2024-09": -0.05, "2024-12": 0.23, "2025-03": -0.19, "2025-06": -0.31, "2025-09": -0.34, "2025-12": 0.23, "2026-03": -0.3,
Last SUE: 1.07
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of ULCC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 271, 2021-06: 550, 2021-09: 630, 2021-12: 609, 2022-03: 605, 2022-06: 909, 2022-09: 906, 2022-12: 906, 2023-03: 848, 2023-06: 967, 2023-09: 883, 2023-12: 891, 2024-03: 865, 2024-06: 973, 2024-09: 935, 2024-12: 1002, 2025-03: 912, 2025-06: 929, 2025-09: 886, 2025-12: 997, 2026-03: 992,
Rev. CAGR: 2.15%
Rev. Trend: 81.5%
Last SUE: -2.42
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio -29.3 is critical

Altman Z'' -1.61 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Extended 1w Choppy

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader, Confidence

Description: ULCC Frontier Holdings

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) operates as an ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) serving leisure travelers across the United States and Latin America. Headquartered in Denver, the company manages a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft and utilizes a direct-to-consumer distribution model via digital platforms and contact centers.

The ULCC business model focuses on unbundling services, allowing passengers to pay a low base fare while charging separately for carry-on baggage, seat assignments, and onboard refreshments. This strategy relies on high aircraft utilization and high-density seating configurations to maintain a lower cost per available seat mile (CASM) compared to legacy carriers.

For a deeper look into the companys valuation metrics, consider reviewing the data available on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Ancillary revenue growth offsets base fare pressure
  • Fuel price volatility impacts operating margins and profitability
  • Network transition toward high-utilization underserved markets
  • Fleet expansion and aircraft delivery schedule drive capacity growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: -366.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.24 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -29.97% < 20% (prev -25.88%; Δ -4.09% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -399.0m > Net Income -366.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 0.49 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (230.0m) vs 12m ago 1.31% < -2%
Gross Margin: 17.43% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 1.72k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 56.36% > 50% (prev 58.97%; Δ -2.61% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -29.29 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -277.0m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)
Altman Z'' -1.61
A: -0.16 (Total Current Assets 1.10b - Total Current Liabilities 2.24b) / Total Assets 7.02b
B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -213.0m / Total Assets 7.02b)
C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -410.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.75b)
D: -0.03 (Book Value of Equity -218.0m / Total Liabilities 6.79b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.61 = D
Beneish M -2.98
DSRI: 1.33 (Receivables 118.0m/89.0m, Revenue 3.80b/3.82b)
GMI: 1.28 (GM 17.43% / 22.34%)
AQI: 0.19 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.03)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.80b / 3.82b)
TATA: 0.00 (NI -366.0m - CFO -399.0m) / TA 7.02b)
Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of ULCC shares?

As of May 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.79 with a total of 5,585,634 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +23.45%, over one month by +52.77%, over three months by +30.41% and over the past year by +40.19%.

Is ULCC a buy, sell or hold?

Frontier Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ULCC.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 10
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ULCC price?
Analysts Target Price 4.9 -15.5%
Frontier Holdings (ULCC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 23 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.06b (1.06b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 13.947
P/S = 0.2791
P/B = 4.8546
Revenue TTM = 3.80b USD
EBIT TTM = -410.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -277.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 343.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.03b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.67b
Net Debt = 9.14b USD (calculated: Debt 9.91b - CCE 772.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.2b USD (1.06b + Debt 9.91b - CCE 772.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -29.29 (Ebit TTM -410.0m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)
EV/FCF = -21.21x (Enterprise Value 10.2b / FCF TTM -481.0m)
FCF Yield = -4.72% (FCF TTM -481.0m / Enterprise Value 10.2b)
FCF Margin = -12.64% (FCF TTM -481.0m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Net Margin = -9.62% (Net Income TTM -366.0m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Gross Margin = 17.43% ((Revenue TTM 3.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.14b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -20.97% (prev 46.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 10.2b / Total Assets 7.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.14% (Interest Expense 14.0m / Debt 9.91b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -323.9m (EBIT -410.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.49 (Total Current Assets 1.10b / Total Current Liabilities 2.24b)
Debt / Equity = 44.65 (Debt 9.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 222.0m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -33.0 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 9.14b / EBITDA -277.0m)
 Debt / FCF = -19.00 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 9.14b / FCF TTM -481.0m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 413.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.42% (Net Income -366.0m / Total Assets 7.02b)
RoE = -58.44% (Net Income TTM -366.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 626.2m)
RoCE = -42.30% (EBIT -410.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 626.2m + L.T.Debt 343.0m))
 RoIC = -6.43% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -323.9m / Invested Capital 5.04b)
 WACC = 1.64% (E(1.06b)/V(11.0b) * Re(15.94%) + D(9.91b)/V(11.0b) * Rd(0.14%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.41 | Cagr: 1.59%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -481.0m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.07 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 81.47 | Revenue CAGR: 2.15% | SUE: -2.42 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.53 | Chg30d=+16.01% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.37 | Chg30d=+3.71% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.09 | Chg30d=+14.54% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=-81.3% | GrowthRev=+25.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=+67.50% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+119.0% | GrowthRev=+11.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17%