(ULTA) Ulta Beauty - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 22.526m USD | Total Return: 20.6% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 341M
EPS Trend: 66.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 94.5%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Beneish M-Score -0.94 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty retailer providing a comprehensive range of beauty products and services across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company’s inventory spans cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrances, featuring both third-party brands and private label offerings. Operations are conducted through physical storefronts, e-commerce platforms, and strategic shop-in-shop partnerships.
The business model distinguishes itself by integrating full-service salons within retail locations, a strategy designed to increase foot traffic and customer dwell time. As a participant in the specialty retail sector, the company competes by offering masstige products, which bridge the gap between mass-market affordability and prestige brand positioning. Investors can further evaluate these market dynamics and financial metrics on ValueRay.
Originally incorporated in 1990 as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., the firm rebranded in 2017 to reflect its broader market presence. Headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, the company continues to expand its digital footprint and international reach to capture diverse consumer segments in the beauty and wellness categories.
- Comparable store sales growth slows as prestige beauty market competition intensifies
- Target shop-in-shop expansion scales physical footprint and customer acquisition reach
- Loyalty program engagement levels dictate recurring revenue and marketing spend efficiency
- Promotional environment and inventory management pressure operating profit margins
- Discretionary consumer spending shifts impact demand for premium skincare and cosmetics
| Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.42% < 20% (prev 11.06%; Δ -3.64% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 1.51b > Net Income 1.15b |
| Net Debt (1.69b) to EBITDA (1.84b): 0.92 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.0m) vs 12m ago -3.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.10% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 3.87k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 190.6% > 50% (prev 188.2%; Δ 2.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 228.5 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM 6.75m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 3.14b - Total Current Liabilities 2.22b) / Total Assets 7.00b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 1.74b / Total Assets 7.00b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.54b / Avg Total Assets 6.50b) |
| D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 1.74b / Total Liabilities 4.20b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.70 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.21 (Receivables 296.2m/223.3m, Revenue 12.4b/11.3b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 39.10% / 38.84%) |
| AQI: 4.21 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 12.4b / 11.3b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.15b - CFO 1.51b) / TA 7.00b) |
| Beneish M = -0.94 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of May 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 508.85 with a total of 675,753 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.95%,
over one month by -4.03%,
over three months by -25.69% and
over the past year by +20.64%.
Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ULTA.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 681.5 | 33.9% |
P/E Trailing = 20.0795
P/E Forward = 18.1159
P/S = 1.8177
P/B = 8.0028
P/EG = 1.7121
Revenue TTM = 12.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.54b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.81b USD (estimated: total debt 2.18b - short term 369.0m)
Short Term Debt = 369.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.18b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 2.12b already included)
Net Debt = 1.69b USD (calculated: Debt 2.18b - CCE 494.2m)
Enterprise Value = 24.2b USD (22.5b + Debt 2.18b - CCE 494.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 228.5 (Ebit TTM 1.54b / Interest Expense TTM 6.75m)
EV/FCF = 24.57x (Enterprise Value 24.2b / FCF TTM 985.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.07% (FCF TTM 985.6m / Enterprise Value 24.2b)
FCF Margin = 7.95% (FCF TTM 985.6m / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Net Margin = 9.31% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Gross Margin = 39.10% ((Revenue TTM 12.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.55b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.06% (prev 40.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.46 (Enterprise Value 24.2b / Total Assets 7.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.31% (Interest Expense 6.75m / Debt 2.18b)
Taxrate = 24.45% (116.0m / 474.3m)
NOPAT = 1.16b (EBIT 1.54b * (1 - 24.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 3.14b / Total Current Liabilities 2.22b)
Debt / Equity = 0.78 (Debt 2.18b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.92 (Net Debt 1.69b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.71 (Net Debt 1.69b / FCF TTM 985.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.74% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 7.00b)
RoE = 44.07% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.62b)
RoCE = 34.79% (EBIT 1.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.62b + L.T.Debt 1.81b))
RoIC = 22.64% (NOPAT 1.16b / Invested Capital 5.14b)
WACC = 9.85% (E(22.5b)/V(24.7b) * Re(10.78%) + D(2.18b)/V(24.7b) * Rd(0.31%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -3.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.70% ; FCFF base≈977.0m ; Y1≈999.1m ; Y5≈1.10b
[DCF] Fair Price = 272.1 (EV 13.5b - Net Debt 1.69b = Equity 11.9b / Shares 43.6m; r=9.85% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.22% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 66.27 | EPS CAGR: 1.61% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.47 | Revenue CAGR: 4.87% | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=6.30 | Chg30d=+0.03% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=28.59 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+11.5% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=31.65 | Chg30d=+0.31% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +56%