ULTA Stock Analysis: Ulta Beauty | NASDAQ
Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 25.353m USD | 12M Return: 11.1% | US90384S3031 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 239M
EPS Trend: 73.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is a large-cap U.S. specialty beauty retailer operating physical stores, shop-in-shops, the Ulta.com website, and mobile applications across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company sells branded and private-label products spanning cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body, salon styling tools, and professional hair products, with a growing wellness assortment.
Founded in 1990 and headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, Ulta Beauty has been publicly traded since its October 2007 IPO and rebranded from ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. to its current name in January 2017. It is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Other Specialty Retail sub-industry, competing in a fragmented beauty market against department-store beauty counters, mass-market drugstores, and an expanding base of direct-to-consumer brands.
The companys omnichannel model combines a national store footprint with a digital platform and shop-in-shop partnerships, while its private-label program provides higher-margin alternatives to national brands-a common differentiation lever in specialty beauty retail.
- Sephora and Amazon Beauty competition pressures Ulta market share
- Same-store sales and new store openings drive revenue growth
- Tariff and inflation pressures squeeze gross margins
| Net Income: 1.21b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.08% < 20% (prev 7.45%; Δ -1.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 1.57b > Net Income 1.21b |
| Net Debt (4.50b) to EBITDA (1.94b): 2.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.5m) vs 12m ago -3.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.32% > 18% (prev 39.00%; Δ 0.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 190.6% > 50% (prev 175.8%; Δ 14.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 146.2 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 3.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.28b) / Total Assets 6.96b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 1.57b / Total Assets 6.96b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.62b / Avg Total Assets 6.80b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 2.64b / Total Liabilities 4.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.72 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 249.3m/224.4m, Revenue 13.0b/11.7b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 39.00% / 39.32%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 13.0b / 11.7b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.21b - CFO 1.57b) / TA 6.96b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 592.94 with a total of 461,135 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.96%, over one month by +9.05%, over three months by +23.64% and over the past year by +11.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 553.90 (which is 6.6% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.21. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ULTA.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 631.4 | 6.5% |
P/E Trailing = 21.6086
P/E Forward = 19.5695
P/S = 1.9569
P/B = 8.7951
P/EG = 1.9591
Revenue TTM = 13.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.62b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.87b USD (estimated: total debt 2.52b - short term 652.2m)
Short Term Debt = 652.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.18b
Net Debt = 4.50b USD (calculated: Debt 4.71b - CCE 213.5m)
Enterprise Value = 29.8b USD (25.4b + Debt 4.71b - CCE 213.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 146.2 (Ebit TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m)
EV/FCF = 27.97x (Enterprise Value 29.8b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
FCF Yield = 3.58% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Enterprise Value 29.8b)
FCF Margin = 8.24% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Revenue TTM 13.0b)
Net Margin = 9.34% (Net Income TTM 1.21b / Revenue TTM 13.0b)
Gross Margin = 39.32% ((Revenue TTM 13.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.86b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.10% (prev 40.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.29 (Enterprise Value 29.8b / Total Assets 6.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.24% (Interest Expense 11.1m / Debt 4.71b)
Taxrate = 24.24% (388.2m / 1.60b)
NOPAT = 1.23b (EBIT 1.62b * (1 - 24.24%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 3.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.28b)
Debt / Equity = 1.78 (Debt 4.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.32 (Net Debt 4.50b / EBITDA 1.94b)
Debt / FCF = 4.21 (Net Debt 4.50b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.67b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.80% (Net Income 1.21b / Total Assets 6.96b)
RoE = 45.40% (Net Income TTM 1.21b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.67b)
RoCE = 35.71% (EBIT 1.62b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.67b + L.T.Debt 1.87b))
RoIC = 23.97% (NOPAT 1.23b / Invested Capital 5.12b)
WACC = 7.38% (E(25.4b)/V(30.1b) * Re(8.72%) + D(4.71b)/V(30.1b) * Rd(0.24%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.23 | Cagr: -4.60%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.89% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.13b ; Y5≈1.44b
[DCF] Fair Price = 410.3 (EV 22.0b - Net Debt 4.50b = Equity 17.5b / Shares 42.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 12.07% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 73.65 | EPS CAGR: 2.48% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.34 | Revenue CAGR: 5.86% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=5.59 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-72% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=28.95 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+12.9% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=31.99 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=+45% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -5% (up=17, down=19)