Overview Dividends

(ULTA) Ulta Beauty - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US90384S3031

Cosmetics, Skincare, Haircare, Fragrance, Beauty Services

ULTA EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -59.11%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -47.6%

ULTA Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 6.60%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 23.9%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	33.8%
Value at Risk 5%th	45.8%
Relative Tail Risk	-17.63%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.97
Alpha	27.68

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.387
Beta	0.895
Beta Downside	0.676

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	44.56%
Mean DD	19.34%
Median DD	20.19%

Description: ULTA Ulta Beauty October 14, 2025

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a U.S.-based specialty beauty retailer that operates stores, shop-in-shops, an e-commerce site (Ulta.com), and mobile apps across the United States and Mexico. Its product assortment spans branded and private-label cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath & body items, professional hair products, and salon styling tools.

The company also generates revenue from in-store beauty services-including hair, makeup, brow, and skin treatments-delivered through its salon-style locations. This services component typically contributes higher gross margins (≈ 55 % in FY 2023) than product sales, providing a profitability buffer during periods of price pressure.

Key recent performance indicators (FY 2023): revenue of $8.6 billion, comparable-store sales growth of 9 % YoY, and a 3-point increase in the services-to-product sales mix, which helped lift overall operating margin to 12.5 %. The business benefits from the broader U.S. beauty market’s ~5 % CAGR, driven by rising consumer spend on personal care and the “beauty-as-self-care” trend.

Economic sensitivities include discretionary consumer spending, which can be dampened by higher interest rates or inflation, and supply-chain constraints that affect product availability. However, Ulta’s omnichannel footprint and loyalty program (Ultamate Rewards) have historically mitigated traffic volatility by encouraging repeat purchases across both physical and digital channels.

For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find the ValueRay platform’s proprietary valuation models useful.

ULTA Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	23,217m
Sub-Industry	Other Specialty Retail
IPO / Inception	2007-10-25
Return 12m vs S&P 500	22.5%
Analyst Rating	3.68 of 5

ULTA Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

ULTA Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	7.16%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.16
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	0.37
Current Volume	534.6k
Average Volume	486.4k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0

Net Income (1.20b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 699.3m TTM)

FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.89pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 7.45% (prev 10.67%; Δ -3.22pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.20 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.30b > Net Income 1.20b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (2.05b) to EBITDA (1.88b) ratio: 1.09 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.39 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (45.1m) change vs 12m ago -5.36% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 39.00% (prev 38.69%; Δ 0.31pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 188.5% (prev 197.3%; Δ -8.86pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 324.1 (EBITDA TTM 1.88b / Interest Expense TTM 4.92m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.77

(A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 3.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.20b) / Total Assets 6.63b

(B) 0.24 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.57b / Total Assets 6.63b

(D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 1.57b / Total Liabilities 4.03b

Total Rating: 3.77 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 74.10

1. Piotroski 7.0pt = 2.0

2. FCF Yield 3.77% = 1.88

3. FCF Margin 8.17% = 2.04

4. Debt/Equity 0.88 = 2.13

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.09 = 1.64

6. ROIC - WACC (= 39.12)% = 12.50

7. RoE 48.78% = 2.50

8. Rev. Trend 23.88% = 1.79

9. EPS Trend -47.59% = -2.38

What is the price of ULTA shares?

As of November 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 533.87 with a total of 534,609 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.71%, over one month by -1.67%, over three months by +0.22% and over the past year by +39.49%.

Is Ulta Beauty a good stock to buy?

Partly, yes. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) is currently (November 2025) ok to buy, but has to be watched. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 74.10 and therefor a somewhat positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ULTA is around 523.27 USD . This means that ULTA is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -1.99%.

Is ULTA a buy, sell or hold?

Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ULTA.

Strong Buy: 9
Buy: 4
Hold: 13
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the ULTA price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	575.8	7.9%
Analysts Target Price	575.8	7.9%
ValueRay Target Price	583.1	9.2%

ULTA Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025

Market Cap USD = 23.22b (23.22b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 19.8844
P/E Forward = 20.6612
P/S = 1.9921
P/B = 9.6056
P/EG = 2.4188
Beta = 0.869
Revenue TTM = 11.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.60b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.88b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.00b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 571.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.05b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 25.26b USD (23.22b + Debt 2.29b - CCE 242.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 324.1 (Ebit TTM 1.60b / Interest Expense TTM 4.92m)
FCF Yield = 3.77% (FCF TTM 952.1m / Enterprise Value 25.26b)
FCF Margin = 8.17% (FCF TTM 952.1m / Revenue TTM 11.65b)
Net Margin = 10.31% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Revenue TTM 11.65b)
Gross Margin = 39.00% ((Revenue TTM 11.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.15% (prev 39.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.81 (Enterprise Value 25.26b / Total Assets 6.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.58% (Interest Expense 13.2m / Debt 2.29b)
Taxrate = 24.49% (84.8m / 346.3m)
NOPAT = 1.20b (EBIT 1.60b * (1 - 24.49%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 3.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.20b)
Debt / Equity = 0.88 (Debt 2.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.09 (Net Debt 2.05b / EBITDA 1.88b)
Debt / FCF = 2.15 (Net Debt 2.05b / FCF TTM 952.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.12% (Net Income 1.20b / Total Assets 6.63b)
RoE = 48.78% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.46b)
RoCE = 35.75% (EBIT 1.60b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.46b + L.T.Debt 2.00b))
RoIC = 47.55% (NOPAT 1.20b / Invested Capital 2.53b)
WACC = 8.43% (E(23.22b)/V(25.50b) * Re(9.22%) + D(2.29b)/V(25.50b) * Rd(0.58%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.27%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.37% ; FCFE base≈967.1m ; Y1≈982.9m ; Y5≈1.08b
Fair Price DCF = 344.1 (DCF Value 15.43b / Shares Outstanding 44.8m; 5y FCF grow 1.36% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -47.59 | EPS CAGR: -59.11% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 23.88 | Revenue CAGR: 6.60% | SUE: 2.93 | # QB: 2

Additional Sources for ULTA Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle