(ULTA) Ulta Beauty - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 21.793m USD | Total Return: 20.1% in 12m

Cosmetics, Skincare, Haircare, Fragrance, Salon Services
Total Rating 49
Safety 32
Buy Signal -0.33
Specialty Retail
Industry Rotation: -2.5
Market Cap: 21.8B
Avg Turnover: 336M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility34.1%
VaR 5th Pctl5.18%
VaR vs Median-9.48%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.58
Rel. Str. IBD18.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group50
Character TTM
Beta1.357
Beta Downside1.597
Hurst Exponent0.573
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD44.56%
CAGR/Max DD0.00
CAGR/Mean DD0.01
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ULTA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-04": 4.1, "2021-07": 4.56, "2021-10": 3.94, "2022-01": 5.41, "2022-04": 6.3, "2022-07": 5.7, "2022-10": 5.34, "2023-01": 6.68, "2023-04": 6.88, "2023-07": 6.02, "2023-10": 5.07, "2024-01": 8.08, "2024-04": 6.47, "2024-07": 5.3, "2024-10": 5.14, "2025-01": 8.46, "2025-04": 6.7, "2025-07": 5.78, "2025-10": 5.14, "2026-01": 8.01,
EPS CAGR: 6.61%
EPS Trend: 13.8%
Last SUE: -0.07
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ULTA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-04: 1938.519, 2021-07: 1967.207, 2021-10: 1995.775, 2022-01: 2729.388, 2022-04: 2345.901, 2022-07: 2297.113, 2022-10: 2338.793, 2023-01: 3226.773, 2023-04: 2634.263, 2023-07: 2529.809, 2023-10: 2488.933, 2024-01: 3554.298, 2024-04: 2725.848, 2024-07: 2552.087, 2024-10: 2530.1, 2025-01: 3487.619, 2025-04: 2848.367, 2025-07: 2788.469, 2025-10: 2857.623, 2026-01: 3898.361,
Rev. CAGR: 14.50%
Rev. Trend: 57.3%
Last SUE: 1.11
Qual. Beats: 4

Warnings

Beneish M-Score -0.94 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation

Choppy

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: ULTA Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty retailer providing a comprehensive range of beauty products and services across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company’s inventory spans cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrances, featuring both third-party brands and private label offerings. Operations are conducted through physical storefronts, e-commerce platforms, and strategic shop-in-shop partnerships.

The business model distinguishes itself by integrating full-service salons within retail locations, a strategy designed to increase foot traffic and customer dwell time. As a participant in the specialty retail sector, the company competes by offering masstige products, which bridge the gap between mass-market affordability and prestige brand positioning. Investors can further evaluate these market dynamics and financial metrics on ValueRay.

Originally incorporated in 1990 as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., the firm rebranded in 2017 to reflect its broader market presence. Headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, the company continues to expand its digital footprint and international reach to capture diverse consumer segments in the beauty and wellness categories.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Comparable store sales growth slows as prestige beauty market competition intensifies
  • Target shop-in-shop expansion scales physical footprint and customer acquisition reach
  • Loyalty program engagement levels dictate recurring revenue and marketing spend efficiency
  • Promotional environment and inventory management pressure operating profit margins
  • Discretionary consumer spending shifts impact demand for premium skincare and cosmetics
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 8.5
Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.98 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 7.42% < 20% (prev 11.06%; Δ -3.64% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 1.51b > Net Income 1.15b
Net Debt (1.76b) to EBITDA (1.84b): 0.95 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.0m) vs 12m ago -3.20% < -2%
Gross Margin: 39.10% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 3.87k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 190.6% > 50% (prev 188.2%; Δ 2.44% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 228.5 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM 6.75m)
Altman Z'' 3.70
A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 3.14b - Total Current Liabilities 2.22b) / Total Assets 7.00b
B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 1.74b / Total Assets 7.00b)
C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.54b / Avg Total Assets 6.50b)
D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 1.74b / Total Liabilities 4.20b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 3.70 = AA
Beneish M -0.94
DSRI: 1.21 (Receivables 296.2m/223.3m, Revenue 12.39b/11.30b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 39.10% / 38.84%)
AQI: 4.21 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 12.39b / 11.30b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.15b - CFO 1.51b) / TA 7.00b)
Beneish M-Score: -0.94 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of ULTA shares? As of May 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 494.28 with a total of 626,239 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.23%, over one month by -8.32%, over three months by -30.07% and over the past year by +20.05%.
Is ULTA a buy, sell or hold? Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ULTA.
  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 13
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ULTA price?
Analysts Target Price 681.5 37.9%
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 16 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 19.4186
P/E Forward = 18.3486
P/S = 1.7585
P/B = 8.1044
P/EG = 1.7338
Revenue TTM = 12.39b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.54b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.12b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 369.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.18b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.76b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 23.48b USD (21.79b + Debt 2.18b - CCE 494.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 228.5 (Ebit TTM 1.54b / Interest Expense TTM 6.75m)
EV/FCF = 23.83x (Enterprise Value 23.48b / FCF TTM 985.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.20% (FCF TTM 985.6m / Enterprise Value 23.48b)
FCF Margin = 7.95% (FCF TTM 985.6m / Revenue TTM 12.39b)
Net Margin = 9.31% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 12.39b)
Gross Margin = 39.10% ((Revenue TTM 12.39b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.55b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.06% (prev 40.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.35 (Enterprise Value 23.48b / Total Assets 7.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.12% (Interest Expense 2.62m / Debt 2.18b)
Taxrate = 24.45% (116.0m / 474.3m)
NOPAT = 1.16b (EBIT 1.54b * (1 - 24.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 3.14b / Total Current Liabilities 2.22b)
Debt / Equity = 0.78 (Debt 2.18b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.95 (Net Debt 1.76b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.78 (Net Debt 1.76b / FCF TTM 985.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.74% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 7.00b)
RoE = 44.07% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.62b)
RoCE = 32.54% (EBIT 1.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.62b + L.T.Debt 2.12b))
RoIC = 40.96% (NOPAT 1.16b / Invested Capital 2.84b)
WACC = 9.79% (E(21.79b)/V(23.98b) * Re(10.76%) + D(2.18b)/V(23.98b) * Rd(0.12%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -3.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.45% ; FCFF base≈977.0m ; Y1≈992.9m ; Y5≈1.09b
[DCF] Fair Price = 287.6 (EV 14.29b - Net Debt 1.76b = Equity 12.53b / Shares 43.6m; r=9.79% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 1.36% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 13.75 | EPS CAGR: 6.61% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 57.26 | Revenue CAGR: 14.50% | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=6.30 | Chg30d=+1.14% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=28.57 | Chg30d=+0.24% | Revisions=+45% | GrowthEPS=+11.4% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=31.64 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +60%