(ULTA) Ulta Beauty - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Specialty Retail | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 22.526m USD | Total Return: 20.6% in 12m

Cosmetics, Skincare, Haircare, Fragrance, Salon Services
Total Rating 46
Safety 30
Buy Signal -0.65
Specialty Retail
Industry Rotation: -1.3
Market Cap: 22.5B
Avg Turnover: 341M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility36.6%
VaR 5th Pctl5.59%
VaR vs Median-8.45%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.59
Rel. Str. IBD19
Rel. Str. Peer Group34.4
Character TTM
Beta1.364
Beta Downside1.605
Hurst Exponent0.540
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD44.56%
CAGR/Max DD0.15
CAGR/Mean DD0.35
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ULTA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-04": 4.1, "2021-07": 4.56, "2021-10": 3.94, "2022-01": 5.41, "2022-04": 6.3, "2022-07": 5.7, "2022-10": 5.34, "2023-01": 6.68, "2023-04": 6.88, "2023-07": 6.02, "2023-10": 5.07, "2024-01": 8.08, "2024-04": 6.47, "2024-07": 5.3, "2024-10": 5.14, "2025-01": 8.46, "2025-04": 6.7, "2025-07": 5.78, "2025-10": 5.14, "2026-01": 8.01,
EPS CAGR: 1.61%
EPS Trend: 66.3%
Last SUE: -0.05
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ULTA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-04: 1938.519, 2021-07: 1967.207, 2021-10: 1995.775, 2022-01: 2729.388, 2022-04: 2345.901, 2022-07: 2297.113, 2022-10: 2338.793, 2023-01: 3226.773, 2023-04: 2634.263, 2023-07: 2529.809, 2023-10: 2488.933, 2024-01: 3554.298, 2024-04: 2725.848, 2024-07: 2552.087, 2024-10: 2530.1, 2025-01: 3487.619, 2025-04: 2848.367, 2025-07: 2788.469, 2025-10: 2857.623, 2026-01: 3898.361,
Rev. CAGR: 4.87%
Rev. Trend: 94.5%
Last SUE: 1.11
Qual. Beats: 4

Warnings

Beneish M-Score -0.94 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: ULTA Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a specialty retailer providing a comprehensive range of beauty products and services across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company’s inventory spans cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and fragrances, featuring both third-party brands and private label offerings. Operations are conducted through physical storefronts, e-commerce platforms, and strategic shop-in-shop partnerships.

The business model distinguishes itself by integrating full-service salons within retail locations, a strategy designed to increase foot traffic and customer dwell time. As a participant in the specialty retail sector, the company competes by offering masstige products, which bridge the gap between mass-market affordability and prestige brand positioning. Investors can further evaluate these market dynamics and financial metrics on ValueRay.

Originally incorporated in 1990 as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., the firm rebranded in 2017 to reflect its broader market presence. Headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, the company continues to expand its digital footprint and international reach to capture diverse consumer segments in the beauty and wellness categories.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Comparable store sales growth slows as prestige beauty market competition intensifies
  • Target shop-in-shop expansion scales physical footprint and customer acquisition reach
  • Loyalty program engagement levels dictate recurring revenue and marketing spend efficiency
  • Promotional environment and inventory management pressure operating profit margins
  • Discretionary consumer spending shifts impact demand for premium skincare and cosmetics
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.5
Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.98 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 7.42% < 20% (prev 11.06%; Δ -3.64% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 1.51b > Net Income 1.15b
Net Debt (1.69b) to EBITDA (1.84b): 0.92 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.0m) vs 12m ago -3.20% < -2%
Gross Margin: 39.10% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 3.87k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 190.6% > 50% (prev 188.2%; Δ 2.44% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 228.5 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.84b / Interest Expense TTM 6.75m)
Altman Z'' 3.70
A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 3.14b - Total Current Liabilities 2.22b) / Total Assets 7.00b
B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 1.74b / Total Assets 7.00b)
C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.54b / Avg Total Assets 6.50b)
D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 1.74b / Total Liabilities 4.20b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.70 = AA
Beneish M -0.94
DSRI: 1.21 (Receivables 296.2m/223.3m, Revenue 12.4b/11.3b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 39.10% / 38.84%)
AQI: 4.21 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 12.4b / 11.3b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.15b - CFO 1.51b) / TA 7.00b)
Beneish M = -0.94 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of ULTA shares?

As of May 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 508.85 with a total of 675,753 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.95%, over one month by -4.03%, over three months by -25.69% and over the past year by +20.64%.

Is ULTA a buy, sell or hold?

Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ULTA.

  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 13
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the ULTA price?
Analysts Target Price 681.5 33.9%
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 22.5b (22.5b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 20.0795
P/E Forward = 18.1159
P/S = 1.8177
P/B = 8.0028
P/EG = 1.7121
Revenue TTM = 12.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.54b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.81b USD (estimated: total debt 2.18b - short term 369.0m)
Short Term Debt = 369.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.18b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 2.12b already included)
Net Debt = 1.69b USD (calculated: Debt 2.18b - CCE 494.2m)
Enterprise Value = 24.2b USD (22.5b + Debt 2.18b - CCE 494.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 228.5 (Ebit TTM 1.54b / Interest Expense TTM 6.75m)
EV/FCF = 24.57x (Enterprise Value 24.2b / FCF TTM 985.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.07% (FCF TTM 985.6m / Enterprise Value 24.2b)
FCF Margin = 7.95% (FCF TTM 985.6m / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Net Margin = 9.31% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Gross Margin = 39.10% ((Revenue TTM 12.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.55b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.06% (prev 40.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.46 (Enterprise Value 24.2b / Total Assets 7.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.31% (Interest Expense 6.75m / Debt 2.18b)
Taxrate = 24.45% (116.0m / 474.3m)
NOPAT = 1.16b (EBIT 1.54b * (1 - 24.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 3.14b / Total Current Liabilities 2.22b)
Debt / Equity = 0.78 (Debt 2.18b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.92 (Net Debt 1.69b / EBITDA 1.84b)
Debt / FCF = 1.71 (Net Debt 1.69b / FCF TTM 985.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.74% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 7.00b)
RoE = 44.07% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.62b)
RoCE = 34.79% (EBIT 1.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.62b + L.T.Debt 1.81b))
RoIC = 22.64% (NOPAT 1.16b / Invested Capital 5.14b)
WACC = 9.85% (E(22.5b)/V(24.7b) * Re(10.78%) + D(2.18b)/V(24.7b) * Rd(0.31%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -3.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.70% ; FCFF base≈977.0m ; Y1≈999.1m ; Y5≈1.10b
[DCF] Fair Price = 272.1 (EV 13.5b - Net Debt 1.69b = Equity 11.9b / Shares 43.6m; r=9.85% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.22% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 66.27 | EPS CAGR: 1.61% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.47 | Revenue CAGR: 4.87% | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=6.30 | Chg30d=+0.03% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=28.59 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+11.5% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=31.65 | Chg30d=+0.31% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +56%