ULTA Stock Analysis: Ulta Beauty | NASDAQ
Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 23.821m USD | 12M Return: 6.5% | US90384S3031 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 366M
EPS Trend: 73.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is a specialty beauty retailer operating in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company sells branded and private-label cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional salon supplies, styling tools, and wellness items through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shop partnerships, Ulta.com, and mobile applications. Founded in 1990 and headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, Ulta Beauty was previously known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. before adopting its current name in January 2017.
The company operates in the specialty retail sector under the broader Consumer Discretionary category, using an omnichannel business model that integrates physical stores with digital sales platforms. A distinguishing feature of Ulta Beautys model is its all things beauty approach, combining mass-market and prestige brands alongside its own private-label products within a single retail format.
- Tariffs on China-sourced cosmetics pressure Ultas gross margins
- Sephora and Amazon intensify competition for prestige beauty shoppers
- Same-store sales drive Ultas revenue as new stores expand footprint
| Net Income: 1.21b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.08% < 20% (prev 7.45%; Δ -1.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 1.57b > Net Income 1.21b |
| Net Debt (4.47b) to EBITDA (1.94b): 2.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.5m) vs 12m ago -3.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.32% > 18% (prev 39.00%; Δ 0.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 190.6% > 50% (prev 175.8%; Δ 14.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 146.2 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 3.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.28b) / Total Assets 6.96b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 1.57b / Total Assets 6.96b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.62b / Avg Total Assets 6.80b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 2.64b / Total Liabilities 4.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.72 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 249.3m/224.4m, Revenue 13.0b/11.7b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 39.00% / 39.32%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 13.0b / 11.7b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.21b - CFO 1.57b) / TA 6.96b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 564.12 with a total of 515,781 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.01%, over one month by +3.73%, over three months by +21.97% and over the past year by +6.54%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 541.20 (which is 4.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.68. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ULTA.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 624.1 | 10.6% |
P/E Trailing = 20.2733
P/E Forward = 19.6078
P/S = 1.8386
P/B = 8.825
P/EG = 1.9078
Revenue TTM = 13.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.62b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.87b USD (estimated: total debt 2.52b - short term 652.2m)
Short Term Debt = 652.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.68b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.16b
Net Debt = 4.47b USD (calculated: Debt 4.68b - CCE 213.5m)
Enterprise Value = 28.3b USD (23.8b + Debt 4.68b - CCE 213.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 146.2 (Ebit TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m)
EV/FCF = 26.51x (Enterprise Value 28.3b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
FCF Yield = 3.77% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Enterprise Value 28.3b)
FCF Margin = 8.24% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Revenue TTM 13.0b)
Net Margin = 9.34% (Net Income TTM 1.21b / Revenue TTM 13.0b)
Gross Margin = 39.32% ((Revenue TTM 13.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.86b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.10% (prev 40.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.06 (Enterprise Value 28.3b / Total Assets 6.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.24% (Interest Expense 11.1m / Debt 4.68b)
Taxrate = 24.24% (388.2m / 1.60b)
NOPAT = 1.23b (EBIT 1.62b * (1 - 24.24%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 3.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.28b)
Debt / Equity = 1.77 (Debt 4.68b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.30 (Net Debt 4.47b / EBITDA 1.94b)
Debt / FCF = 4.19 (Net Debt 4.47b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.67b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.80% (Net Income 1.21b / Total Assets 6.96b)
RoE = 45.40% (Net Income TTM 1.21b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.67b)
RoCE = 35.71% (EBIT 1.62b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.67b + L.T.Debt 1.87b))
RoIC = 23.97% (NOPAT 1.23b / Invested Capital 5.12b)
WACC = 7.88% (E(23.8b)/V(28.5b) * Re(9.39%) + D(4.68b)/V(28.5b) * Rd(0.24%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.23 | Cagr: -4.60%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.89% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.13b ; Y5≈1.44b
[DCF] Fair Price = 410.9 (EV 22.0b - Net Debt 4.47b = Equity 17.6b / Shares 42.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 12.07% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 73.65 | EPS CAGR: 2.48% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.34 | Revenue CAGR: 5.86% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=5.62 | Chg30d=-3.87% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=28.93 | Chg30d=+0.48% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+12.8% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=31.94 | Chg30d=+0.23% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+10.4% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=5, down=0)