ULTA Stock Analysis: Ulta Beauty | NASDAQ
Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 26.700m USD | 12M Return: 25.7% | US90384S3031 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 255M
EPS Trend: 73.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) is a large-cap U.S. specialty beauty retailer operating physical stores, shop-in-shops, the Ulta.com website, and mobile applications across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company sells branded and private-label products spanning cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body, salon styling tools, and professional hair products, with a growing wellness assortment.
Founded in 1990 and headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois, Ulta Beauty has been publicly traded since its October 2007 IPO and rebranded from ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. to its current name in January 2017. It is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Other Specialty Retail sub-industry, competing in a fragmented beauty market against department-store beauty counters, mass-market drugstores, and an expanding base of direct-to-consumer brands.
The companys omnichannel model combines a national store footprint with a digital platform and shop-in-shop partnerships, while its private-label program provides higher-margin alternatives to national brands-a common differentiation lever in specialty beauty retail.
- Sephora and Amazon Beauty competition pressures Ulta market share
- Same-store sales and new store openings drive revenue growth
- Tariff and inflation pressures squeeze gross margins
| Net Income: 1.21b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.08% < 20% (prev 7.45%; Δ -1.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 1.57b > Net Income 1.21b |
| Net Debt (4.50b) to EBITDA (1.94b): 2.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.5m) vs 12m ago -3.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.32% > 18% (prev 39.00%; Δ 0.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 190.6% > 50% (prev 175.8%; Δ 14.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 146.2 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 3.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.28b) / Total Assets 6.96b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 1.57b / Total Assets 6.96b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 1.62b / Avg Total Assets 6.80b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 2.64b / Total Liabilities 4.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.72 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 249.3m/224.4m, Revenue 13.0b/11.7b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 39.00% / 39.32%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 13.0b / 11.7b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.21b - CFO 1.57b) / TA 6.96b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 640.43 with a total of 543,218 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.56%, over one month by +16.89%, over three months by +23.94% and over the past year by +25.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 600.10 (which is 6.3% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Ulta Beauty has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.21. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ULTA.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 635.8 | -0.7% |
P/E Trailing = 22.7573
P/E Forward = 19.9203
P/S = 2.0609
P/B = 8.9576
P/EG = 1.9953
Revenue TTM = 13.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.62b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.87b USD (estimated: total debt 2.52b - short term 652.2m)
Short Term Debt = 652.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.18b
Net Debt = 4.50b USD (calculated: Debt 4.71b - CCE 213.5m)
Enterprise Value = 31.2b USD (26.7b + Debt 4.71b - CCE 213.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 146.2 (Ebit TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m)
EV/FCF = 29.23x (Enterprise Value 31.2b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
FCF Yield = 3.42% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Enterprise Value 31.2b)
FCF Margin = 8.24% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Revenue TTM 13.0b)
Net Margin = 9.34% (Net Income TTM 1.21b / Revenue TTM 13.0b)
Gross Margin = 39.32% ((Revenue TTM 13.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.86b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.10% (prev 40.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.48 (Enterprise Value 31.2b / Total Assets 6.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.24% (Interest Expense 11.1m / Debt 4.71b)
Taxrate = 24.24% (388.2m / 1.60b)
NOPAT = 1.23b (EBIT 1.62b * (1 - 24.24%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 3.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.28b)
Debt / Equity = 1.78 (Debt 4.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.32 (Net Debt 4.50b / EBITDA 1.94b)
Debt / FCF = 4.21 (Net Debt 4.50b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.67b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.80% (Net Income 1.21b / Total Assets 6.96b)
RoE = 45.40% (Net Income TTM 1.21b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.67b)
RoCE = 35.71% (EBIT 1.62b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.67b + L.T.Debt 1.87b))
RoIC = 23.97% (NOPAT 1.23b / Invested Capital 5.12b)
WACC = 7.32% (E(26.7b)/V(31.4b) * Re(8.58%) + D(4.71b)/V(31.4b) * Rd(0.24%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.23 | Cagr: -4.60%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.89% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.13b ; Y5≈1.44b
[DCF] Fair Price = 410.3 (EV 22.0b - Net Debt 4.50b = Equity 17.5b / Shares 42.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 12.07% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 73.65 | EPS CAGR: 2.48% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.34 | Revenue CAGR: 5.86% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=5.60 | Chg30d=+0.10% | Revisions=-72% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=28.95 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+12.9% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=32.00 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+45% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -5% (up=17, down=19)