(ULTA) Ulta Beauty - Ratings and Ratios
Cosmetics, Skincare, Haircare, Fragrance, Beauty Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 46.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.10% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.11 |
| Alpha | 43.79 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.279 |
| Beta | 0.898 |
| Beta Downside | 0.649 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.56% |
| Mean DD | 19.45% |
| Median DD | 20.19% |
Description: ULTA Ulta Beauty October 14, 2025
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a U.S.-based specialty beauty retailer that operates stores, shop-in-shops, an e-commerce site (Ulta.com), and mobile apps across the United States and Mexico. Its product assortment spans branded and private-label cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath & body items, professional hair products, and salon styling tools.
The company also generates revenue from in-store beauty services-including hair, makeup, brow, and skin treatments-delivered through its salon-style locations. This services component typically contributes higher gross margins (≈ 55 % in FY 2023) than product sales, providing a profitability buffer during periods of price pressure.
Key recent performance indicators (FY 2023): revenue of $8.6 billion, comparable-store sales growth of 9 % YoY, and a 3-point increase in the services-to-product sales mix, which helped lift overall operating margin to 12.5 %. The business benefits from the broader U.S. beauty market’s ~5 % CAGR, driven by rising consumer spend on personal care and the “beauty-as-self-care” trend.
Economic sensitivities include discretionary consumer spending, which can be dampened by higher interest rates or inflation, and supply-chain constraints that affect product availability. However, Ulta’s omnichannel footprint and loyalty program (Ultamate Rewards) have historically mitigated traffic volatility by encouraging repeat purchases across both physical and digital channels.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find the ValueRay platform’s proprietary valuation models useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (1.20b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 699.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.89pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7.45% (prev 10.67%; Δ -3.22pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.30b > Net Income 1.20b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.05b) to EBITDA (1.88b) ratio: 1.09 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.39 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (45.1m) change vs 12m ago -5.36% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 39.00% (prev 38.69%; Δ 0.31pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 188.5% (prev 197.3%; Δ -8.86pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 287.4 (EBITDA TTM 1.88b / Interest Expense TTM 5.55m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.77
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 3.07b - Total Current Liabilities 2.20b) / Total Assets 6.63b |
| (B) 0.24 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.57b / Total Assets 6.63b |
| (C) 0.26 = EBIT TTM 1.60b / Avg Total Assets 6.18b |
| (D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 1.57b / Total Liabilities 4.03b |
| Total Rating: 3.77 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.88
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.90% |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.17% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.88 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.09 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 39.06)% |
| 7. RoE 48.78% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 52.46% |
| 9. EPS Trend -36.30% |
What is the price of ULTA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.80%, over one month by +2.36%, over three months by +0.25% and over the past year by +42.61%.
Is ULTA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ULTA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 575.8 | 7.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 575.8 | 7.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 580.6 | 8.5% |
ULTA Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Trailing = 19.0871
P/E Forward = 18.797
P/S = 1.9183
P/B = 8.7369
P/EG = 2.2
Beta = 0.869
Revenue TTM = 11.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.60b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.88b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.00b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 571.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.05b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 24.40b USD (22.36b + Debt 2.29b - CCE 242.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 287.4 (Ebit TTM 1.60b / Interest Expense TTM 5.55m)
FCF Yield = 3.90% (FCF TTM 952.1m / Enterprise Value 24.40b)
FCF Margin = 8.17% (FCF TTM 952.1m / Revenue TTM 11.65b)
Net Margin = 10.31% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Revenue TTM 11.65b)
Gross Margin = 39.00% ((Revenue TTM 11.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.11b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.15% (prev 39.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.68 (Enterprise Value 24.40b / Total Assets 6.63b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.58% (Interest Expense 13.2m / Debt 2.29b)
Taxrate = 24.49% (84.8m / 346.3m)
NOPAT = 1.20b (EBIT 1.60b * (1 - 24.49%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 3.07b / Total Current Liabilities 2.20b)
Debt / Equity = 0.88 (Debt 2.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.09 (Net Debt 2.05b / EBITDA 1.88b)
Debt / FCF = 2.15 (Net Debt 2.05b / FCF TTM 952.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.12% (Net Income 1.20b / Total Assets 6.63b)
RoE = 48.78% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.46b)
RoCE = 35.75% (EBIT 1.60b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.46b + L.T.Debt 2.00b))
RoIC = 47.55% (NOPAT 1.20b / Invested Capital 2.53b)
WACC = 8.50% (E(22.36b)/V(24.64b) * Re(9.32%) + D(2.29b)/V(24.64b) * Rd(0.58%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.27%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.03% ; FCFE base≈967.1m ; Y1≈982.9m ; Y5≈1.08b
Fair Price DCF = 338.7 (DCF Value 15.19b / Shares Outstanding 44.8m; 5y FCF grow 1.36% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -36.30 | EPS CAGR: -46.13% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.46 | Revenue CAGR: 9.33% | SUE: 2.93 | # QB: 2
Additional Sources for ULTA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle