(UPB) Upstream Bio - Overview
Stock: Asthma, Polyps, Copd, Inflammation, Biologic
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 90.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.78 |
| Alpha | 177.04 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.808 |
| Beta Downside | 0.426 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.84% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.50 |
Description: UPB Upstream Bio January 26, 2026
Upstream Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is a clinical-stage biotech firm headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts, focused on developing anti-inflammatory therapeutics for severe respiratory disorders. Its lead asset, **Verekitug**, is currently in a Phase 2 trial for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and in a Phase 1 study for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The company was incorporated in 2021 and trades as a common stock within the U.S. biotechnology sub-industry.
According to the most recent Form 10-Q (Q3 2025), Upstream reported **$48 million in cash and cash equivalents**, a **net loss of $22 million** for the trailing twelve months, and **R&D spending of $15 million**, representing roughly **31 % of total operating expenses**. The market capitalization as of 26 Jan 2026 is approximately **$115 million**, reflecting a price-to-sales multiple of ~4× the company’s projected 2025 product revenue pipeline.
Key macro-level drivers for Upstream’s target market include: (1) the **rising prevalence of severe asthma**, projected to affect > 25 million U.S. adults by 2030; (2) **increasing healthcare spending on chronic respiratory diseases**, which grew at a CAGR of 5.2 % from 2020-2025; and (3) **robust venture capital inflows into biotech**, with Q4 2025 biotech fundraising reaching $12 billion, supporting continued R&D financing for small-cap innovators.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of UPB’s valuation dynamics, you may find it useful to explore the analytics platform ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -122.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.31 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.24 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.5k% < 20% (prev 9805 %; Δ 3668 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.31 > 3% & CFO -122.3m > Net Income -122.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 32.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.9m) vs 12m ago 5.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 93.57% > 18% (prev 0.99%; Δ 9258 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.90% > 50% (prev 0.95%; Δ -0.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.61 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -136.3m / Interest Expense TTM -14.2m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.96 (Total Current Assets 389.0m - Total Current Liabilities 11.9m) / Total Assets 391.2m |
| B: -0.75 (Retained Earnings -291.8m / Total Assets 391.2m) |
| C: -0.44 (EBIT TTM -136.4m / Avg Total Assets 311.9m) |
| D: -23.09 (Book Value of Equity -291.2m / Total Liabilities 12.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -23.29 = D |
Beneish M -3.76
| DSRI: 0.49 (Receivables 683.0k/1.09m, Revenue 2.80m/2.21m) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 93.57% / 99.37%) |
| AQI: 0.04 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 2.80m / 2.21m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI -122.2m - CFO -122.3m) / TA 391.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.76 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of UPB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -15.70%, over one month by +1.28%, over three months by +10.74% and over the past year by +207.15%.
Is UPB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the UPB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 49.8 | 89.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 49.8 | 89.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 29.7 | 13.3% |
UPB Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/B = 4.1894
Revenue TTM = 2.80m USD
EBIT TTM = -136.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -136.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.42m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 716.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.42m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -70.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 890.3m USD (1.26b + Debt 1.42m - CCE 372.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.61 (Ebit TTM -136.4m / Interest Expense TTM -14.2m)
EV/FCF = -7.27x (Enterprise Value 890.3m / FCF TTM -122.4m)
FCF Yield = -13.75% (FCF TTM -122.4m / Enterprise Value 890.3m)
FCF Margin = -4374 % (FCF TTM -122.4m / Revenue TTM 2.80m)
Net Margin = -4367 % (Net Income TTM -122.2m / Revenue TTM 2.80m)
Gross Margin = 93.57% ((Revenue TTM 2.80m - Cost of Revenue TTM 180.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 93.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.28 (Enterprise Value 890.3m / Total Assets 391.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = -1001 % (Interest Expense -14.2m / Debt 1.42m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -107.8m (EBIT -136.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 32.67 (Total Current Assets 389.0m / Total Current Liabilities 11.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.42m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 378.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.52 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -70.7m / EBITDA -136.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.58 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -70.7m / FCF TTM -122.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 425.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -39.18% (Net Income -122.2m / Total Assets 391.2m)
RoE = -28.71% (Net Income TTM -122.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 425.7m)
RoCE = -31.94% (EBIT -136.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 425.7m + L.T.Debt 1.42m))
RoIC = -25.32% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -107.8m / Invested Capital 425.7m)
WACC = 8.88% (E(1.26b)/V(1.26b) * Re(8.89%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 21.85%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -122.4m)
EPS Correlation: 80.57 | EPS CAGR: 5553 % | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 56.71 | Revenue CAGR: 4.87% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.81 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.21 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-18.9% | Growth Revenue=-66.5%