(UPB) Upstream Bio - Ratings and Ratios
Clinical-Stage, Therapeutic, Respiratory, Inflammatory, Candidate
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 86.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 122% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.99% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.81 |
| Alpha | 29.23 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.76 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.503 |
| Beta | 1.076 |
| Beta Downside | 0.926 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.84% |
| Mean DD | 41.78% |
| Median DD | 40.82% |
Description: UPB Upstream Bio December 01, 2025
Upstream Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is a clinical-stage biotech firm headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts, that concentrates on developing novel therapeutics for inflammatory respiratory diseases.
The company’s lead candidate, **verekitug**, is currently enrolled in a Phase 2 trial for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and a separate Phase I study for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Both indications address high-unmet-need patient populations with sizable market potential.
According to the most recent Form 10-Q (Q2 2024), Upstream reported approximately **$45 million of cash and cash equivalents**, giving it an estimated **12-month runway** at its disclosed cash-burn rate of roughly **$3.8 million per quarter**. The firm’s R&D expense grew 42 % year-over-year, reflecting the acceleration of its clinical programs.
Sector-wide, the biotechnology industry is benefiting from **increased payer willingness to reimburse biologics for chronic respiratory conditions** and **accelerated FDA pathways for anti-inflammatory agents**, while macro-economic pressures (e.g., higher interest rates) are tightening capital availability for early-stage biotech firms.
For a deeper, data-driven view of UPB’s valuation metrics and risk profile, you may find it worthwhile to explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income (-122.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 167.9k TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.31 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -7.24pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 13.5k% (prev 9805 %; Δ 3668 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.31 (>3.0%) and CFO -122.3m <= Net Income -122.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 32.67 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (53.9m) change vs 12m ago 5.04% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 93.57% (prev 99.37%; Δ -5.80pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 0.90% (prev 0.95%; Δ -0.05pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -9.61 (EBITDA TTM -136.3m / Interest Expense TTM -14.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -23.29
| (A) 0.96 = (Total Current Assets 389.0m - Total Current Liabilities 11.9m) / Total Assets 391.2m |
| (B) -0.75 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -291.8m / Total Assets 391.2m |
| (C) -0.44 = EBIT TTM -136.4m / Avg Total Assets 311.9m |
| (D) -23.09 = Book Value of Equity -291.2m / Total Liabilities 12.6m |
| Total Rating: -23.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.08
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -13.75% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.00 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.52 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -35.29)% |
| 7. RoE -28.71% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 56.71% |
| 9. EPS Trend 80.57% |
What is the price of UPB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.37%, over one month by +14.09%, over three months by +68.99% and over the past year by +54.23%.
Is UPB a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the UPB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 49.8 | 69.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 49.8 | 69.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 32.3 | 10.2% |
UPB Fundamental Data Overview December 13, 2025
P/S = 530.3466
P/B = 3.921
Beta = None
Revenue TTM = 2.80m USD
EBIT TTM = -136.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -136.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.42m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 716.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.42m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -70.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 890.3m USD (1.26b + Debt 1.42m - CCE 372.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.61 (Ebit TTM -136.4m / Interest Expense TTM -14.2m)
FCF Yield = -13.75% (FCF TTM -122.4m / Enterprise Value 890.3m)
FCF Margin = -4374 % (FCF TTM -122.4m / Revenue TTM 2.80m)
Net Margin = -4367 % (Net Income TTM -122.2m / Revenue TTM 2.80m)
Gross Margin = 93.57% ((Revenue TTM 2.80m - Cost of Revenue TTM 180.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 95.46% (prev 93.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.28 (Enterprise Value 890.3m / Total Assets 391.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = -1001 % (Interest Expense -14.2m / Debt 1.42m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -107.8m (EBIT -136.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 32.67 (Total Current Assets 389.0m / Total Current Liabilities 11.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.42m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 378.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.52 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -70.7m / EBITDA -136.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.58 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -70.7m / FCF TTM -122.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 425.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -31.24% (Net Income -122.2m / Total Assets 391.2m)
RoE = -28.71% (Net Income TTM -122.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 425.7m)
RoCE = -31.94% (EBIT -136.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 425.7m + L.T.Debt 1.42m))
RoIC = -25.32% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -107.8m / Invested Capital 425.7m)
WACC = 9.97% (E(1.26b)/V(1.26b) * Re(9.98%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 21.85%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -122.4m)
EPS Correlation: 80.57 | EPS CAGR: 5553 % | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 56.71 | Revenue CAGR: 4.87% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.81 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.21 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-18.9% | Growth Revenue=-66.5%
Additional Sources for UPB Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle