UPB Stock Analysis: Upstream Bio | NASDAQ
Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 409m USD | 12M Return: -28.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.29M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 85.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Upstream Bio, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing therapies for inflammatory diseases, with a primary focus on severe respiratory disorders. Its lead candidate, verekitug, is being evaluated in Phase 2 trials for severe asthma, chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, with the company also conducting a Phase 1 trial in COPD. Founded in 2021 and headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts, Upstream Bio completed its IPO in October 2024 and currently carries a small-cap market valuation.
As a clinical-stage biotechnology company, Upstream Bio has no approved or commercialized products, meaning its operations are funded through capital markets and cash reserves rather than product revenue. The respiratory inflammation space targeted by verekitug is already competitive, with multiple approved biologic therapies marketed for indications such as severe asthma and CRSwNP, creating a high bar for clinical differentiation and commercial entry.
- Verekitug Phase 2 severe asthma and CRSwNP data readouts
- Competition from Dupixent and other TSLP inhibitors pressures market opportunity
- Cash burn expands as Phase 2 trials advance
| Net Income: -156.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.44 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -25.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.11k% < 20% (prev 19.3k%; Δ -10.2k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.44 > 3% & CFO -140.0m > Net Income -156.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 23.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (54.3m) vs 12m ago 1.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.16% > 18% (prev 96.12%; Δ -1.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.86% > 50% (prev 0.50%; Δ 0.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.95 (Total Current Assets 316.3m - Total Current Liabilities 13.7m) / Total Assets 318.1m |
| B: -1.18 (Retained Earnings -374.8m / Total Assets 318.1m) |
| C: -0.40 (EBIT TTM -156.8m / Avg Total Assets 387.1m) |
| D: 21.62 (Book Value of Equity 304.0m / Total Liabilities 14.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 22.38 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.41 (Receivables 1.03m/1.74m, Revenue 3.32m/2.30m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 96.12% / 94.16%) |
| AQI: 1.43 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.45 (Revenue 3.32m / 2.30m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -156.8m - CFO -140.0m) / TA 318.1m) |
| Beneish M = -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.86 with a total of 726,025 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.42%, over one month by +21.86%, over three months by -18.97% and over the past year by -28.42%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.30 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Upstream Bio has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPB.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 38.3 | 386.6% |
P/S = 123.0265
P/B = 1.3032
Revenue TTM = 3.32m USD
EBIT TTM = -156.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -156.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 390k USD (estimated: total debt 1.11m - short term 724k)
Short Term Debt = 724k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.11m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 1.11m already included)
Net Debt = -293.5m USD (calculated: Debt 1.11m - CCE 294.6m)
Enterprise Value = 115.2m USD (408.7m + Debt 1.11m - CCE 294.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -156.8m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = -0.82x (Enterprise Value 115.2m / FCF TTM -140.0m)
FCF Yield = -121.5% (FCF TTM -140.0m / Enterprise Value 115.2m)
FCF Margin = -4.21k% (FCF TTM -140.0m / Revenue TTM 3.32m)
Net Margin = -4.72k% (Net Income TTM -156.8m / Revenue TTM 3.32m)
Gross Margin = 94.16% ((Revenue TTM 3.32m - Cost of Revenue TTM 194k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 91.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.36 (Enterprise Value 115.2m / Total Assets 318.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.11m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -123.8m (EBIT -156.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 23.14 (Total Current Assets 316.3m / Total Current Liabilities 13.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.11m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 304.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.87 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -293.5m / EBITDA -156.6m)
Debt / FCF = 2.10 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -293.5m / FCF TTM -140.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 357.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -40.50% (Net Income -156.8m / Total Assets 318.1m)
RoE = -43.82% (Net Income TTM -156.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 357.8m)
RoCE = -43.77% (EBIT -156.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 357.8m + L.T.Debt 390k))
RoIC = -40.61% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -123.8m / Invested Capital 304.9m)
WACC = 9.58% (E(408.7m)/V(409.8m) * Re(9.61%) + D(1.11m)/V(409.8m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 93.09 | Cagr: 19.60%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -140.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.59 | Revenue CAGR: 9.51% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.76 | Chg30d=-1.79% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.70 | Chg30d=+1.29% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.84 | Chg30d=+1.95% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-6.8% | GrowthRev=-28.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-2.89 | Chg30d=+4.35% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1.6% | GrowthRev=-19.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=6, down=6)