UPBD Stock Analysis: Upbound | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.157m USD | 12M Return: -8.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 18.2M
EPS Trend: -9.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) is a Plano, Texas-based technology and data-driven financial solutions company operating in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico through four business segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company specializes in lease-to-own (LTO) and retail installment sales transactions, primarily serving consumers who do not qualify for traditional credit-based financing.
Its merchandise assortment spans furniture and mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, and accessories, distributed through company-owned stores under the Rent-A-Center, Get It Now, Home Choice, and RimTyme banners, as well as staffed and unstaffed kiosks placed inside third-party retailers and online channels such as rentacenter.com. Beyond point-of-sale financing, the Brigit segment delivers digital financial-health tools via mobile and web applications, expanding the companys reach beyond physical retail.
The firm was incorporated in 1986 and was known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. until its February 2023 rebranding to Upbound Group, Inc., reflecting its pivot from a pure rent-to-own operator into a broader digital financial-services platform. The lease-to-own and subprime installment industry is part of the broader Consumer Discretionary sector and serves a demographic typically underserved by banks and prime credit card issuers, competing with both specialty LTO operators and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) fintech providers.
- Acima virtual lease-to-own growth outpaces legacy stores
- Subprime consumer credit losses pressure gross profit margins
- CFPB lease-to-own regulation may restrict pricing models
| Net Income: 84.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 23.34% < 20% (prev 23.11%; Δ 0.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 338.5m > Net Income 84.2m |
| Net Debt (1.92b) to EBITDA (1.04b): 1.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.5m) vs 12m ago 0.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.31% > 18% (prev 47.75%; Δ -6.44% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 153.6% > 50% (prev 144.6%; Δ 8.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 235.9m / Interest Expense TTM 112.1m) |
| A: 0.35 (Total Current Assets 1.67b - Total Current Liabilities 562.8m) / Total Assets 3.13b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 1.03b / Total Assets 3.13b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 235.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.09b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 715.7m / Total Liabilities 2.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.22 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.33 (Receivables 195.4m/136.2m, Revenue 4.74b/4.40b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 47.75% / 41.31%) |
| AQI: 0.68 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 4.74b / 4.40b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 84.2m - CFO 338.5m) / TA 3.13b) |
| Beneish M = -2.75 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.22 with a total of 1,244,314 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.54%, over one month by +13.70%, over three months by +22.69% and over the past year by -8.33%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.10 (which is 5.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Upbound has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.38. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPBD.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.5 | 34.3% |
P/E Trailing = 13.7778
P/E Forward = 3.8153
P/S = 0.2441
P/B = 1.6143
P/EG = 1.3876
Revenue TTM = 4.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 235.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.04b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 288.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 288.5m
Net Debt = 1.92b USD (calculated: Debt 2.02b - CCE 98.4m)
Enterprise Value = 3.07b USD (1.16b + Debt 2.02b - CCE 98.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.11 (Ebit TTM 235.9m / Interest Expense TTM 112.1m)
EV/FCF = 9.23x (Enterprise Value 3.07b / FCF TTM 333.1m)
FCF Yield = 10.83% (FCF TTM 333.1m / Enterprise Value 3.07b)
FCF Margin = 7.03% (FCF TTM 333.1m / Revenue TTM 4.74b)
Net Margin = 1.78% (Net Income TTM 84.2m / Revenue TTM 4.74b)
Gross Margin = 41.31% ((Revenue TTM 4.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.78b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.96% (prev 35.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 3.07b / Total Assets 3.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.56% (Interest Expense 112.1m / Debt 2.02b)
Taxrate = 31.98% (39.6m / 123.9m)
NOPAT = 160.5m (EBIT 235.9m * (1 - 31.98%))
Current Ratio = 2.96 (Total Current Assets 1.67b / Total Current Liabilities 562.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.82 (Debt 2.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 715.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.84 (Net Debt 1.92b / EBITDA 1.04b)
Debt / FCF = 5.76 (Net Debt 1.92b / FCF TTM 333.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 696.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.73% (Net Income 84.2m / Total Assets 3.13b)
RoE = 12.10% (Net Income TTM 84.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 696.1m)
RoCE = 11.05% (EBIT 235.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 696.1m + L.T.Debt 1.44b))
RoIC = 5.82% (NOPAT 160.5m / Invested Capital 2.76b)
WACC = 6.44% (E(1.16b)/V(3.17b) * Re(11.07%) + D(2.02b)/V(3.17b) * Rd(5.56%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 76.83 | Cagr: 3.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈279.2m ; Y1≈320.0m ; Y5≈471.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 88.68 (EV 7.09b - Net Debt 1.92b = Equity 5.17b / Shares 58.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -9.38 | EPS CAGR: -0.71% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.73 | Revenue CAGR: 7.20% | SUE: -0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.01 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+11% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.20 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+1.7% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.76 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+13.3% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%