UPST Stock Analysis: Upstart Holdings | NASDAQ
Credit Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.222m USD | 12M Return: -52.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 147M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 95.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is a U.S.-based fintech company that operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, connecting borrowers with lending partners. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, the company went public in December 2020 and is classified within the GICS Financials sector, specifically the Consumer Finance sub-industry.
The company reports operations across three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform offers a range of credit products, including unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance loans, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit. Upstarts AI-driven model represents a shift from traditional credit underwriting, using non-traditional variables and machine learning to assess borrower risk.
As a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $2.9 billion USD, Upstart operates in the broader consumer finance sector, which has seen growing competition from digital-first lenders challenging incumbent banks. The companys business model relies on originating loans through its platform and selling them to institutional investors, distinguishing it from balance sheet-heavy traditional lenders.
- Personal loan originations rebound as credit losses normalize
- Auto Lending segment scales with new retail dealer partners
- AI fair lending regulation scrutiny raises compliance costs
| Net Income: 49.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -14.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 60.21% < 20% (prev 77.12%; Δ -16.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -267.5m > Net Income 49.4m |
| Net Debt (1.06b) to EBITDA (73.5m): 14.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (96.9m) vs 12m ago 2.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.25% > 50% (prev 33.05%; Δ 11.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 49.2m / Interest Expense TTM 54.9m) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 931.3m - Total Current Liabilities 230.8m) / Total Assets 2.96b |
| B: -0.12 (Retained Earnings -364.2m / Total Assets 2.96b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 49.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.63b) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 733.2m / Total Liabilities 2.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.62 = BB |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 34.78 with a total of 3,818,200 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.49%, over one month by +14.82%, over three months by +29.25% and over the past year by -52.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 32.00 (which is 8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47. Therefore, it is recommended to hold UPST.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 40.1 | 15.4% |
P/E Trailing = 82.0976
P/E Forward = 36.63
P/S = 2.7448
P/B = 4.3942
Revenue TTM = 1.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 49.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 73.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.74b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.50m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.00b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 17.5m
Net Debt = 1.06b USD (calculated: Debt 2.00b - CCE 931.3m)
Enterprise Value = 4.29b USD (3.22b + Debt 2.00b - CCE 931.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.90 (Ebit TTM 49.2m / Interest Expense TTM 54.9m)
EV/FCF = -14.95x (Enterprise Value 4.29b / FCF TTM -286.8m)
FCF Yield = -6.69% (FCF TTM -286.8m / Enterprise Value 4.29b)
FCF Margin = -24.65% (FCF TTM -286.8m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Net Margin = 4.25% (Net Income TTM 49.4m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 50.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 4.29b / Total Assets 2.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.75% (Interest Expense 54.9m / Debt 2.00b)
Taxrate = 1.56% (783k / 50.2m)
NOPAT = 48.5m (EBIT 49.2m * (1 - 1.56%))
Current Ratio = 4.03 (Total Current Assets 931.3m / Total Current Liabilities 230.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.72 (Debt 2.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 733.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.48 (Net Debt 1.06b / EBITDA 73.5m)
Debt / FCF = -3.71 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.06b / FCF TTM -286.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 749.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.88% (Net Income 49.4m / Total Assets 2.96b)
RoE = 6.59% (Net Income TTM 49.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 749.4m)
RoCE = 1.98% (EBIT 49.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 749.4m + L.T.Debt 1.74b))
RoIC = 1.81% (NOPAT 48.5m / Invested Capital 2.68b)
WACC = 9.49% (E(3.22b)/V(5.22b) * Re(13.70%) + D(2.00b)/V(5.22b) * Rd(2.75%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 13.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 5.68%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -286.8m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.53 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 95.64 | Revenue CAGR: 37.54% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=+2.93% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=+1.64% | Revisions=+36% | GrowthEPS=+26.7% | GrowthRev=+35.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.42 | Chg30d=+1.88% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+43.2% | GrowthRev=+31.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +39% (up=18, down=7)