UPST Stock Analysis: Upstart Holdings | NASDAQ
Credit Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.940m USD | 12M Return: -52.3% | US91680M1071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 120M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 98.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is a U.S.-based fintech company that operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, connecting borrowers with lending partners. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, the company went public in December 2020 and is classified within the GICS Financials sector, specifically the Consumer Finance sub-industry.
The company reports operations across three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform offers a range of credit products, including unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance loans, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit. Upstarts AI-driven model represents a shift from traditional credit underwriting, using non-traditional variables and machine learning to assess borrower risk.
As a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $2.9 billion USD, Upstart operates in the broader consumer finance sector, which has seen growing competition from digital-first lenders challenging incumbent banks. The companys business model relies on originating loans through its platform and selling them to institutional investors, distinguishing it from balance sheet-heavy traditional lenders.
- Personal loan originations rebound as credit losses normalize
- Auto Lending segment scales with new retail dealer partners
- AI fair lending regulation scrutiny raises compliance costs
| Net Income: 60.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 78.98% < 20% (prev 43.27%; Δ 35.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -284.0m > Net Income 60.3m |
| Net Debt (1.59b) to EBITDA (82.6m): 19.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 14.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.7m) vs 12m ago 6.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.44% > 18% (prev 95.40%; Δ -20.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.91% > 50% (prev 35.71%; Δ 5.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 57.0m / Interest Expense TTM 54.9m) |
| A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 982.3m - Total Current Liabilities 69.7m) / Total Assets 3.17b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -347.7m / Total Assets 3.17b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 57.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.82b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 797.5m / Total Liabilities 2.37b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.02 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.45 (Receivables 58.2m/99.4m, Revenue 1.16b/884.8m) |
| GMI: 1.28 (GM 95.40% / 74.44%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.67 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.31 (Revenue 1.16b / 884.8m) |
| TATA: 0.11 (NI 60.3m - CFO -284.0m) / TA 3.17b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.43 with a total of 2,956,765 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.12%, over one month by -4.07%, over three months by +2.42% and over the past year by -52.33%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.00 (which is 8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47. Therefore, it is recommended to hold UPST.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 40.6 | 33.4% |
P/E Trailing = 60.42
P/E Forward = 47.8469
P/S = 2.2862
P/B = 3.7937
Revenue TTM = 1.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 57.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 82.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.75b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 69.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 22.4m
Net Debt = 1.59b USD (calculated: Debt 2.05b - CCE 456.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.53b USD (2.94b + Debt 2.05b - CCE 456.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.04 (Ebit TTM 57.0m / Interest Expense TTM 54.9m)
EV/FCF = 21.10x (Enterprise Value 4.53b / FCF TTM 214.7m)
FCF Yield = 4.74% (FCF TTM 214.7m / Enterprise Value 4.53b)
FCF Margin = 18.58% (FCF TTM 214.7m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Net Margin = 5.22% (Net Income TTM 60.3m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Gross Margin = 74.44% ((Revenue TTM 1.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 295.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 1.77% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.43 (Enterprise Value 4.53b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.68% (Interest Expense 54.9m / Debt 2.05b)
Taxrate = 1.56% (783k / 50.2m)
NOPAT = 56.1m (EBIT 57.0m * (1 - 1.56%))
Current Ratio = 4.57 (Total Current Assets 982.3m / Total Current Liabilities 214.9m)
Debt / Equity = 2.57 (Debt 2.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 797.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 19.28 (Net Debt 1.59b / EBITDA 82.6m)
Debt / FCF = 7.41 (Net Debt 1.59b / FCF TTM 214.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 768.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.14% (Net Income 60.3m / Total Assets 3.17b)
RoE = 7.85% (Net Income TTM 60.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 768.3m)
RoCE = 2.26% (EBIT 57.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 768.3m + L.T.Debt 1.75b))
RoIC = 1.80% (NOPAT 56.1m / Invested Capital 3.11b)
WACC = 10.35% (E(2.94b)/V(4.99b) * Re(15.73%) + D(2.05b)/V(4.99b) * Rd(2.68%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 15.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.54 | Cagr: 10.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.77% ; FCFF base≈180.2m ; Y1≈206.5m ; Y5≈303.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.34 (EV 3.38b - Net Debt 1.59b = Equity 1.78b / Shares 97.3m; r=10.35% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.95 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 97.95 | Revenue CAGR: 41.35% | SUE: -3.95 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=-2.84% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.29 | Chg30d=-4.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+21.6% | GrowthRev=+36.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.27 | Chg30d=-5.68% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+42.7% | GrowthRev=+31.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +12% (up=3, down=2)