(UPST) Upstart Holdings - Overview
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Credit Services | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 2.760m USD | Total Return: -37.4% in 12m
Industry Rotation: -11.4
Avg Turnover: 133M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 95.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform designed to improve access to credit while reducing risk for lending partners. Headquartered in San Mateo, California, the company facilitates various credit products including unsecured personal loans, auto refinancing, retail auto loans, and home equity lines of credit.
The business model functions as a marketplace that connects consumers to a network of bank and credit union partners, earning revenue primarily through referral and origination fees rather than traditional interest income. This model is part of the broader Consumer Finance sector, where AI-driven credit scoring aims to replace or augment legacy FICO-based underwriting systems to identify creditworthy borrowers often overlooked by traditional methods.
For a deeper dive into these financial metrics, consider reviewing the detailed valuation reports on ValueRay.
- Interest rate volatility dictates loan origination volume and institutional investor demand
- Expansion into auto and home equity markets diversifies core revenue streams
- AI model performance during credit cycles impacts bank partner retention rates
- Higher funding costs and tighter credit spreads compress transaction fee margins
- Regulatory scrutiny of algorithmic lending models poses potential compliance and operational risks
| Net Income: 49.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -14.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 60.21% < 20% (prev 77.12%; Δ -16.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -267.5m > Net Income 49.4m |
| Net Debt (1.06b) to EBITDA (73.5m): 14.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (96.9m) vs 12m ago 2.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.25% > 50% (prev 33.05%; Δ 11.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.90 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 73.5m / Interest Expense TTM 54.9m) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 931.3m - Total Current Liabilities 230.8m) / Total Assets 2.96b |
| B: -0.12 (Retained Earnings -364.2m / Total Assets 2.96b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 49.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.63b) |
| D: -0.16 (Book Value of Equity -364.2m / Total Liabilities 2.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.10 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 97.4m/62.5m, Revenue 1.16b/758.8m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 95.67% / 94.14%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 1.53 (Revenue 1.16b / 758.8m) |
| TATA: 0.11 (NI 49.4m - CFO -267.5m) / TA 2.96b) |
| Beneish M = -2.42 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.22%, over one month by -17.79%, over three months by +4.77% and over the past year by -37.41%.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 40.2 | 39.3% |
P/E Forward = 31.348
P/S = 2.3518
P/B = 3.7649
Revenue TTM = 1.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 49.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 73.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.74b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.50m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.00b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 17.5m
Net Debt = 1.06b USD (calculated: Debt 2.00b - CCE 931.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.82b USD (2.76b + Debt 2.00b - CCE 931.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.90 (Ebit TTM 49.2m / Interest Expense TTM 54.9m)
EV/FCF = -13.34x (Enterprise Value 3.82b / FCF TTM -286.8m)
FCF Yield = -7.50% (FCF TTM -286.8m / Enterprise Value 3.82b)
FCF Margin = -24.65% (FCF TTM -286.8m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Net Margin = 4.25% (Net Income TTM 49.4m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 50.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 3.82b / Total Assets 2.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.52% (Interest Expense 10.4m / Debt 2.00b)
Taxrate = 1.34% (728k / 54.3m)
NOPAT = 48.6m (EBIT 49.2m * (1 - 1.34%))
Current Ratio = 4.03 (Total Current Assets 931.3m / Total Current Liabilities 230.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.72 (Debt 2.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 733.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.48 (Net Debt 1.06b / EBITDA 73.5m)
Debt / FCF = -3.71 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.06b / FCF TTM -286.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 749.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.88% (Net Income 49.4m / Total Assets 2.96b)
RoE = 4.44% (Net Income TTM 49.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.11b)
RoCE = 1.73% (EBIT 49.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.11b + L.T.Debt 1.74b))
RoIC = 2.69% (NOPAT 48.6m / Invested Capital 1.81b)
WACC = 8.36% (E(2.76b)/V(4.76b) * Re(14.03%) + D(2.00b)/V(4.76b) * Rd(0.52%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 14.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 5.68%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -286.8m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -2.13 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 95.64 | Revenue CAGR: 37.54% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=-2.82% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=+5.57% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+3.95% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+25.3% | GrowthRev=+35.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.40 | Chg30d=+6.92% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+43.5% | GrowthRev=+31.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%