UPST Stock Analysis: Upstart Holdings | NASDAQ
Credit Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.220m USD | 12M Return: -54% | US91680M1071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 106M
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 98.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is a U.S.-based fintech company that operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, connecting borrowers with lending partners. The company is headquartered in San Mateo, California, and was founded in 2012. Upstart went public on the NASDAQ in December 2020.
The company operates through three reportable segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform supports a range of credit products, including unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit. As a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Finance sub-industry, Upstart sits within the broader Financials sector alongside other digital lenders and consumer credit providers.
- Personal Lending loan origination volume recovers from cyclical lows
- Auto Lending segment scales with rising retail and refinance originations
- CFPB regulatory scrutiny on AI lending models creates overhang
| Net Income: 60.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 70.97% < 20% (prev 43.27%; Δ 27.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -284.0m > Net Income 60.3m |
| Net Debt (1.59b) to EBITDA (87.3m): 18.24 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 14.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.7m) vs 12m ago 6.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 45.53% > 50% (prev 35.71%; Δ 9.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.03 > 6 (EBIT TTM 61.7m / Interest Expense TTM 59.6m) |
| A: 0.29 (Total Current Assets 982.3m - Total Current Liabilities 69.7m) / Total Assets 3.17b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -347.7m / Total Assets 3.17b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 61.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.82b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 797.5m / Total Liabilities 2.37b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.03 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.40 (Receivables 58.2m/99.4m, Revenue 1.29b/884.8m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 95.40% / 95.36%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.67 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.45 (Revenue 1.29b / 884.8m) |
| TATA: 0.11 (NI 60.3m - CFO -284.0m) / TA 3.17b) |
| Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.10 with a total of 2,682,137 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.66%, over one month by -6.91%, over three months by -27.48% and over the past year by -53.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.60 (which is 6.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold UPST.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 40 | 66% |
P/E Trailing = 43.8654
P/E Forward = 13.587
P/S = 1.6978
P/B = 2.9835
Revenue TTM = 1.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 61.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 87.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.75b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 69.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 22.4m
Net Debt = 1.59b USD (calculated: Debt 2.05b - CCE 456.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.81b USD (2.22b + Debt 2.05b - CCE 456.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.03 (Ebit TTM 61.7m / Interest Expense TTM 59.6m)
EV/FCF = 17.75x (Enterprise Value 3.81b / FCF TTM 214.7m)
FCF Yield = 5.63% (FCF TTM 214.7m / Enterprise Value 3.81b)
FCF Margin = 16.70% (FCF TTM 214.7m / Revenue TTM 1.29b)
Net Margin = 4.69% (Net Income TTM 60.3m / Revenue TTM 1.29b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 59.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 3.81b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.91% (Interest Expense 59.6m / Debt 2.05b)
Taxrate = 2.19% (1.35m / 61.7m)
NOPAT = 60.3m (EBIT 61.7m * (1 - 2.19%))
Current Ratio = 4.57 (Total Current Assets 982.3m / Total Current Liabilities 214.9m)
Debt / Equity = 2.57 (Debt 2.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 797.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.24 (Net Debt 1.59b / EBITDA 87.3m)
Debt / FCF = 7.41 (Net Debt 1.59b / FCF TTM 214.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 768.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.14% (Net Income 60.3m / Total Assets 3.17b)
RoE = 7.85% (Net Income TTM 60.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 768.3m)
RoCE = 2.45% (EBIT 61.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 768.3m + L.T.Debt 1.75b))
RoIC = 1.94% (NOPAT 60.3m / Invested Capital 3.11b)
WACC = 9.30% (E(2.22b)/V(4.27b) * Re(15.26%) + D(2.05b)/V(4.27b) * Rd(2.91%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 15.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.54 | Cagr: 10.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.94% ; FCFF base≈180.2m ; Y1≈206.5m ; Y5≈303.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 23.88 (EV 3.92b - Net Debt 1.59b = Equity 2.32b / Shares 97.3m; r=9.30% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.95 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 98.22 | Revenue CAGR: 43.86% | SUE: 1.09 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+0.52% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.30 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+21.6% | GrowthRev=+36.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=+6.16% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+51.4% | GrowthRev=+31.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +7% (up=6, down=5)