UPST Stock Analysis: Upstart Holdings | NASDAQ
Credit Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.312m USD | 12M Return: -42% | US91680M1071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 98.0M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) is a U.S.-based fintech company that operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, connecting borrowers with lending partners. The company is headquartered in San Mateo, California, and was founded in 2012. Upstart went public on the NASDAQ in December 2020.
The company operates through three reportable segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform supports a range of credit products, including unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, auto secured personal loans, and home equity lines of credit. As a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Finance sub-industry, Upstart sits within the broader Financials sector alongside other digital lenders and consumer credit providers.
- Personal Lending loan origination volume recovers from cyclical lows
- Auto Lending segment scales with rising retail and refinance originations
- CFPB regulatory scrutiny on AI lending models creates overhang
| Net Income: 65.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.41 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 111.6% < 20% (prev 61.65%; Δ 49.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.05 > 3% & CFO -181.1m > Net Income 65.1m |
| Net Debt (1.67b) to EBITDA (104.2m): 16.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (125.4m) vs 12m ago 14.30% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.31% > 50% (prev 34.35%; Δ 9.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 78.6m / Interest Expense TTM 63.7m) |
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 1.88b - Total Current Liabilities 337.8m) / Total Assets 3.34b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -311.1m / Total Assets 3.34b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 78.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.12b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 887.4m / Total Liabilities 2.45b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.28 = A |
| DSRI: 0.32 (Receivables 53.4m/120.3m, Revenue 1.38b/997.7m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 96.12% / 96.27%) |
| AQI: 0.67 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.39 (Revenue 1.38b / 997.7m) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 65.1m - CFO -181.1m) / TA 3.34b) |
| Beneish M = -3.50 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.89 with a total of 4,572,035 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.91%, over one month by -8.26%, over three months by -26.32% and over the past year by -41.97%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.00 (which is 8.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.81. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPST.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 37.6 | 71.6% |
P/E Trailing = 38.3279
P/E Forward = 11.8765
P/S = 1.6716
P/B = 2.6077
Revenue TTM = 1.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 78.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 104.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.73b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 97.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 22.4m
Net Debt = 1.67b USD (calculated: Debt 2.14b - CCE 461.5m)
Enterprise Value = 3.99b USD (2.31b + Debt 2.14b - CCE 461.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.23 (Ebit TTM 78.6m / Interest Expense TTM 63.7m)
EV/FCF = -20.42x (Enterprise Value 3.99b / FCF TTM -195.3m)
FCF Yield = -4.90% (FCF TTM -195.3m / Enterprise Value 3.99b)
FCF Margin = -14.12% (FCF TTM -195.3m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Net Margin = 4.71% (Net Income TTM 65.1m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 51.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.19 (Enterprise Value 3.99b / Total Assets 3.34b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.98% (Interest Expense 63.7m / Debt 2.14b)
Taxrate = 2.82% (1.89m / 67.0m)
NOPAT = 76.4m (EBIT 78.6m * (1 - 2.82%))
Current Ratio = 5.57 (Total Current Assets 1.88b / Total Current Liabilities 337.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.41 (Debt 2.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 887.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.07 (Net Debt 1.67b / EBITDA 104.2m)
Debt / FCF = -8.58 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.67b / FCF TTM -195.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 804.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.09% (Net Income 65.1m / Total Assets 3.34b)
RoE = 8.10% (Net Income TTM 65.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 804.2m)
RoCE = 3.10% (EBIT 78.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 804.2m + L.T.Debt 1.73b))
RoIC = 2.52% (NOPAT 76.4m / Invested Capital 3.03b)
WACC = 8.67% (E(2.31b)/V(4.45b) * Re(14.0%) + D(2.14b)/V(4.45b) * Rd(2.98%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 14.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 12.54%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.31 | Cagr: 16.80%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -195.3m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.14 | Revenue CAGR: 47.19% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=-2.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.30 | Chg30d=+0.03% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+21.6% | GrowthRev=+32.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.58 | Chg30d=+2.88% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+55.8% | GrowthRev=+31.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)