Overview Dividends

(UPST) Upstart Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US91680M1071

Personal Loans, Auto Loans, Home Equity, Small Dollar

Consumer Finance
Market Cap in USD: 3,608m
IPO / Inception: 2020-12-16
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -41.8%

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid
Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility 84.5%
Value at Risk 5%th 126%
Relative Tail Risk -9.25%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -0.28
Alpha -76.32
CAGR/Max DD 0.48
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.461
Beta 2.479
Beta Downside 3.185
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 71.05%
Mean DD 39.12%
Median DD 41.73%

Description: UPST Upstart Holdings November 04, 2025

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States, offering personal loans, auto retail and refinance loans, home-equity lines, and small-ticket credit through three business segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.

Founded in 2012 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, Upstart reported Q4 2023 revenue of roughly $215 million-a 15% year-over-year increase-but posted a net loss of $85 million, reflecting ongoing investment in model development and marketing. The company’s AI underwriting claims to cut default rates by about 30% versus conventional credit scores, a metric that has attracted both retail borrowers and institutional partners.

Key macro drivers include the Fed’s interest-rate policy, which influences consumer credit demand, and the broader fintech funding environment that can affect Upstart’s ability to scale its platform. Additionally, the adoption of AI-enhanced credit scoring across the consumer-finance sector is accelerating, potentially expanding the addressable market for Upstart’s technology.

For a deeper, data-driven look at Upstart’s valuation dynamics and risk profile, you might explore the analytical tools available on ValueRay.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0

Net Income (32.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 59.4m TTM)
FCFTA -0.13 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -20.75pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 65.76% (prev 50.48%; Δ 15.28pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA -0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO -367.2m <= Net Income 32.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (1.11b) to EBITDA (56.1m) ratio: 19.86 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 4.50 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (109.7m) change vs 12m ago 21.75% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 92.14% (prev 92.87%; Δ -0.73pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 42.00% (prev 32.66%; Δ 9.34pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.85 (EBITDA TTM 56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.96

(A) 0.22 = (Total Current Assets 836.9m - Total Current Liabilities 185.9m) / Total Assets 2.90b
(B) -0.13 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -376.2m / Total Assets 2.90b
(C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 33.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b
(D) -0.17 = Book Value of Equity -376.2m / Total Liabilities 2.16b
Total Rating: 0.96 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 22.13

1. Piotroski 1.0pt
2. FCF Yield -7.91%
3. FCF Margin -37.73%
4. Debt/Equity 2.62
5. Debt/Ebitda 19.86
6. ROIC - WACC (= -8.49)%
7. RoE 4.64%
8. Rev. Trend 4.57%
9. EPS Trend 3.41%

What is the price of UPST shares?

As of December 01, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 44.96 with a total of 3,740,971 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.22%, over one month by -5.39%, over three months by -35.00% and over the past year by -33.28%.

Is UPST a buy, sell or hold?

Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47. Therefor, it is recommend to hold UPST.
  • Strong Buy: 4
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the UPST price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 55.4 23.2%
Analysts Target Price 55.4 23.2%
ValueRay Target Price 40.5 -9.9%

UPST Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025

Market Cap USD = 3.61b (3.61b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 142.6539
P/E Forward = 39.2157
P/S = 3.6165
P/B = 4.8518
Beta = 2.268
Revenue TTM = 990.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 33.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.86m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.95b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.11b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.72b USD (3.61b + Debt 1.95b - CCE 836.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.85 (Ebit TTM 33.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m)
FCF Yield = -7.91% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Enterprise Value 4.72b)
FCF Margin = -37.73% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Net Margin = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Gross Margin = 92.14% ((Revenue TTM 990.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.58% (prev 97.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.63 (Enterprise Value 4.72b / Total Assets 2.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.45% (Interest Expense 8.79m / Debt 1.95b)
Taxrate = 0.39% (124.0k / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 32.9m (EBIT 33.1m * (1 - 0.39%))
Current Ratio = 4.50 (Total Current Assets 836.9m / Total Current Liabilities 185.9m)
Debt / Equity = 2.62 (Debt 1.95b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 743.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 19.86 (Net Debt 1.11b / EBITDA 56.1m)
Debt / FCF = -2.98 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.11b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 693.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.11% (Net Income 32.2m / Total Assets 2.90b)
RoE = 4.64% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 693.9m)
RoCE = 1.37% (EBIT 33.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 693.9m + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 1.50% (NOPAT 32.9m / Invested Capital 2.20b)
WACC = 9.99% (E(3.61b)/V(5.56b) * Re(15.15%) + D(1.95b)/V(5.56b) * Rd(0.45%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 15.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 13.24%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -373.6m)
EPS Correlation: 3.41 | EPS CAGR: -13.35% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 4.57 | Revenue CAGR: -1.70% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+0.021 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=+0.033 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+942.2% | Growth Revenue=+62.8%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.40 | Chg30d=-0.085 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+42.6% | Growth Revenue=+22.0%

Additional Sources for UPST Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle