(UPST) Upstart Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US91680M1071

Personal Loans, Auto Loans, Home Equity, Small Dollar

Stock: Consumer Finance
Age 5.1y

MCap 4,681m
Avg Vol 3.74M (166M USD)

Beta 2.428
Volatility 83.81%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -19.29%
EPS Trend: 30.5%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -1.70%
Rev. Trend: 5.5%

Last SUE: 0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	83.8%
Value at Risk 5%th	124%
Relative Tail Risk	-9.81%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.16
Alpha	-61.44
CAGR/Max DD	0.47

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.522
Beta	2.428
Beta Downside	3.044

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	71.05%
Mean DD	40.62%
Median DD	44.62%

Description: UPST Upstart Holdings January 07, 2026

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States, offering personal loans, auto financing, home-equity lines, and small-ticket credit through three operating segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.

In 2023 the company reported roughly $1.2 billion in revenue and originated about $12 billion in total loan volume, with AI-driven underwriting delivering a 15 % higher approval rate for qualified borrowers while maintaining credit loss ratios near 2.5 % of loan balances-a level that is modestly above the historical consumer-finance average but improves as the models mature.

Key macro drivers include the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, which directly influences consumer borrowing demand and loan-pricing dynamics, and the broader fintech trend toward algorithmic credit assessment that is compressing margins for traditional banks but creating scalability advantages for AI-centric lenders like Upstart.

For a deeper, data-rich assessment of Upstart’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth exploring.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income: 32.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -20.75 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 53.68% < 20% (prev 50.48%; Δ 3.20% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.13 > 3% & CFO -367.2m > Net Income 32.2m
Net Debt (1.40b) to EBITDA (56.1m): 24.97 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.32 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.7m) vs 12m ago 21.75% < -2%
Gross Margin: 92.14% > 18% (prev 0.93%; Δ 9121 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 42.00% > 50% (prev 32.66%; Δ 9.34% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.85 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m)

Altman Z'' 0.69

A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 760.6m - Total Current Liabilities 229.2m) / Total Assets 2.90b
B: -0.13 (Retained Earnings -376.2m / Total Assets 2.90b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 33.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b)
D: -0.17 (Book Value of Equity -376.2m / Total Liabilities 2.16b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.69 = B

Beneish M -1.84

DSRI: 1.60 (Receivables 235.1m/87.9m, Revenue 990.0m/590.9m)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 92.14% / 92.87%)
AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.71 / AQ_t-1 0.64)
SGI: 1.68 (Revenue 990.0m / 590.9m)
TATA: 0.14 (NI 32.2m - CFO -367.2m) / TA 2.90b)
Beneish M-Score: -1.84 = B

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 24.66

1. Piotroski: 2.0pt
2. FCF Yield: -6.14%
3. FCF Margin: -37.73%
4. Debt/Equity: 2.55
5. Debt/Ebitda: 24.97
6. ROIC - WACC: -9.21%
7. RoE: 4.64%
8. Revenue Trend: 5.47%
9. EPS Trend: 30.49%

What is the price of UPST shares?

As of January 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 45.29 with a total of 2,392,551 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.88%, over one month by -7.39%, over three months by -13.07% and over the past year by -34.66%.

Is UPST a buy, sell or hold?

Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47. Therefor, it is recommend to hold UPST.

Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 2
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the UPST price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	56.3	24.3%
Analysts Target Price	56.3	24.3%
ValueRay Target Price	41	-9.5%

UPST Fundamental Data Overview January 19, 2026

P/E Trailing = 185.0769
P/E Forward = 20.0401
P/S = 4.692
P/B = 6.2946
Revenue TTM = 990.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 33.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 140.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.40b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.08b USD (4.68b + Debt 1.90b - CCE 494.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.85 (Ebit TTM 33.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m)
EV/FCF = -16.28x (Enterprise Value 6.08b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
FCF Yield = -6.14% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Enterprise Value 6.08b)
FCF Margin = -37.73% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Net Margin = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Gross Margin = 92.14% ((Revenue TTM 990.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.58% (prev 97.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.09 (Enterprise Value 6.08b / Total Assets 2.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.46% (Interest Expense 8.79m / Debt 1.90b)
Taxrate = 0.39% (124.0k / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 32.9m (EBIT 33.1m * (1 - 0.39%))
Current Ratio = 3.32 (Total Current Assets 760.6m / Total Current Liabilities 229.2m)
Debt / Equity = 2.55 (Debt 1.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 743.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.97 (Net Debt 1.40b / EBITDA 56.1m)
Debt / FCF = -3.75 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.40b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 693.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.37% (Net Income 32.2m / Total Assets 2.90b)
RoE = 4.64% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 693.9m)
RoCE = 1.37% (EBIT 33.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 693.9m + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 1.50% (NOPAT 32.9m / Invested Capital 2.20b)
WACC = 10.71% (E(4.68b)/V(6.58b) * Re(14.86%) + D(1.90b)/V(6.58b) * Rd(0.46%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 14.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 13.24%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -373.6m)
EPS Correlation: 30.49 | EPS CAGR: -19.29% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 5.47 | Revenue CAGR: -1.70% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+0.016 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+43.2% | Growth Revenue=+22.7%

Additional Sources for UPST Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle