(UPST) Upstart Holdings - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US91680M1071
Stock: Personal Loans, Auto Loans, Home Equity, Small Dollar
Total Rating 10
Risk 53
Buy Signal -0.59
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 87.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.33% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.27 |
| Alpha | -73.78 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.471 |
| Beta Downside | 3.005 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.05% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.47 |
Description: UPST Upstart Holdings January 07, 2026
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States, offering personal loans, auto financing, home-equity lines, and small-ticket credit through three operating segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.
In 2023 the company reported roughly $1.2 billion in revenue and originated about $12 billion in total loan volume, with AI-driven underwriting delivering a 15 % higher approval rate for qualified borrowers while maintaining credit loss ratios near 2.5 % of loan balances-a level that is modestly above the historical consumer-finance average but improves as the models mature.
Key macro drivers include the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, which directly influences consumer borrowing demand and loan-pricing dynamics, and the broader fintech trend toward algorithmic credit assessment that is compressing margins for traditional banks but creating scalability advantages for AI-centric lenders like Upstart.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of Upstart’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: 32.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -20.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 53.68% < 20% (prev 50.48%; Δ 3.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.13 > 3% & CFO -367.2m > Net Income 32.2m |
| Net Debt (1.40b) to EBITDA (56.1m): 24.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.7m) vs 12m ago 21.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 92.14% > 18% (prev 0.93%; Δ 9121 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.00% > 50% (prev 32.66%; Δ 9.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.85 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m) |
Altman Z'' 0.69
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 760.6m - Total Current Liabilities 229.2m) / Total Assets 2.90b |
| B: -0.13 (Retained Earnings -376.2m / Total Assets 2.90b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 33.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b) |
| D: -0.17 (Book Value of Equity -376.2m / Total Liabilities 2.16b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.69 = B |
Beneish M -1.84
| DSRI: 1.60 (Receivables 235.1m/87.9m, Revenue 990.0m/590.9m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 92.14% / 92.87%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.71 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.68 (Revenue 990.0m / 590.9m) |
| TATA: 0.14 (NI 32.2m - CFO -367.2m) / TA 2.90b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.84 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
What is the price of UPST shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.24 with a total of 3,964,034 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.57%, over one month by -24.55%, over three months by +1.37% and over the past year by -41.30%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.57%, over one month by -24.55%, over three months by +1.37% and over the past year by -41.30%.
Is UPST a buy, sell or hold?
Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold UPST.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the UPST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 56.6 | 48.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 56.6 | 48.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.5 | -9.8% |
UPST Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 157.0
P/E Forward = 17.301
P/S = 3.8271
P/B = 5.4326
Revenue TTM = 990.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 33.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 140.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.40b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.22b USD (3.82b + Debt 1.90b - CCE 494.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.85 (Ebit TTM 33.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m)
EV/FCF = -13.97x (Enterprise Value 5.22b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
FCF Yield = -7.16% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Enterprise Value 5.22b)
FCF Margin = -37.73% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Net Margin = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Gross Margin = 92.14% ((Revenue TTM 990.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.58% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.80 (Enterprise Value 5.22b / Total Assets 2.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.46% (Interest Expense 8.79m / Debt 1.90b)
Taxrate = 0.39% (124.0k / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 32.9m (EBIT 33.1m * (1 - 0.39%))
Current Ratio = 3.32 (Total Current Assets 760.6m / Total Current Liabilities 229.2m)
Debt / Equity = 2.55 (Debt 1.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 743.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.97 (Net Debt 1.40b / EBITDA 56.1m)
Debt / FCF = -3.75 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.40b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 693.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.37% (Net Income 32.2m / Total Assets 2.90b)
RoE = 4.64% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 693.9m)
RoCE = 1.37% (EBIT 33.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 693.9m + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 1.50% (NOPAT 32.9m / Invested Capital 2.20b)
WACC = 10.19% (E(3.82b)/V(5.71b) * Re(15.02%) + D(1.90b)/V(5.71b) * Rd(0.46%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 15.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 13.24%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -373.6m)
EPS Correlation: 30.49 | EPS CAGR: -19.29% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 5.47 | Revenue CAGR: -1.70% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+0.016 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+43.2% | Growth Revenue=+22.7%
P/E Forward = 17.301
P/S = 3.8271
P/B = 5.4326
Revenue TTM = 990.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 33.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 140.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.90b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.40b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.22b USD (3.82b + Debt 1.90b - CCE 494.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.85 (Ebit TTM 33.1m / Interest Expense TTM 38.7m)
EV/FCF = -13.97x (Enterprise Value 5.22b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
FCF Yield = -7.16% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Enterprise Value 5.22b)
FCF Margin = -37.73% (FCF TTM -373.6m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Net Margin = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 990.0m)
Gross Margin = 92.14% ((Revenue TTM 990.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.58% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.80 (Enterprise Value 5.22b / Total Assets 2.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.46% (Interest Expense 8.79m / Debt 1.90b)
Taxrate = 0.39% (124.0k / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 32.9m (EBIT 33.1m * (1 - 0.39%))
Current Ratio = 3.32 (Total Current Assets 760.6m / Total Current Liabilities 229.2m)
Debt / Equity = 2.55 (Debt 1.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 743.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.97 (Net Debt 1.40b / EBITDA 56.1m)
Debt / FCF = -3.75 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.40b / FCF TTM -373.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 693.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.37% (Net Income 32.2m / Total Assets 2.90b)
RoE = 4.64% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 693.9m)
RoCE = 1.37% (EBIT 33.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 693.9m + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 1.50% (NOPAT 32.9m / Invested Capital 2.20b)
WACC = 10.19% (E(3.82b)/V(5.71b) * Re(15.02%) + D(1.90b)/V(5.71b) * Rd(0.46%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 15.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 13.24%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -373.6m)
EPS Correlation: 30.49 | EPS CAGR: -19.29% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 5.47 | Revenue CAGR: -1.70% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+0.016 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+43.2% | Growth Revenue=+22.7%