(UPST) Upstart Holdings - Overview
Sector: Financial ServicesIndustry: Credit Services | Exchange NASDAQ (USA) | Currency USD | Market Cap: 2.548m | Total Return -51.8% in 12m
Stock: Personal Loans, Auto Loans, Home Equity
Total Rating 21
Risk 74
Buy Signal -1.68
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 81.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.02% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.61 |
| Alpha | -83.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.359 |
| Beta Downside | 1.554 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.05% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.38 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Risks
Technicals:
volatile
Description: UPST Upstart Holdings March 03, 2026
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States, offering unsecured personal loans, small-ticket credit, auto refinance and retail financing, as well as home-equity lines of credit across three business segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.
In its most recent quarter (Q4 2025), Upstart generated $340 million in revenue, a 15 % year-over-year increase, and originated $2.1 billion in total loan volume, while maintaining a portfolio default rate of 3.2 %-approximately 20 % lower than the industry average for comparable credit scores, reflecting the efficiency of its AI underwriting models.
Key macro drivers include a still-elevated Federal Funds Rate that pressures consumer borrowing costs, yet the fintech sector’s shift toward data-rich, algorithmic credit assessment is expanding market share for AI-enabled lenders like Upstart.
For a deeper dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst tools.
Headlines to watch out for
- Loan volume growth drives platform revenue expansion
- Interest rate hikes reduce loan demand and profitability
- Regulatory scrutiny of AI lending models increases compliance costs
- Competition intensifies in the AI lending market
- Economic downturns increase loan default rates
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: 53.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 74.21% < 20% (prev 92.00%; Δ -17.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.05 > 3% & CFO -147.7m > Net Income 53.6m |
| Net Debt (1.19b) to EBITDA (79.2m): 15.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (112.2m) vs 12m ago 21.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.27% > 50% (prev 28.60%; Δ 11.67% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.05 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 79.2m / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m) |
Altman Z'' 1.33
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 401.0m) / Total Assets 2.97b |
| B: -0.12 (Retained Earnings -357.6m / Total Assets 2.97b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 54.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.67b) |
| D: -0.16 (Book Value of Equity -357.5m / Total Liabilities 2.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.33 = BB |
Beneish M -2.58
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 97.4m/70.3m, Revenue 1.08b/677.0m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 95.21% / 92.89%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.58 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.59 (Revenue 1.08b / 677.0m) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 53.6m - CFO -147.7m) / TA 2.97b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.58 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of UPST shares?
As of March 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.60 with a total of 3,871,125 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.42%, over one month by -5.47%, over three months by -44.84% and over the past year by -51.76%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.42%, over one month by -5.47%, over three months by -44.84% and over the past year by -51.76%.
Is UPST a buy, sell or hold?
Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold UPST.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the UPST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 48.5 | 82.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 48.5 | 82.3% |
UPST Fundamental Data Overview March 24, 2026
P/E Trailing = 57.7333
P/E Forward = 27.027
P/S = 2.3687
P/B = 3.0854
Revenue TTM = 1.08b USD
EBIT TTM = 54.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 79.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.73b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 97.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.19b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.74b USD (2.55b + Debt 1.85b - CCE 657.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.05 (Ebit TTM 54.3m / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m)
EV/FCF = -22.52x (Enterprise Value 3.74b / FCF TTM -166.1m)
FCF Yield = -4.44% (FCF TTM -166.1m / Enterprise Value 3.74b)
FCF Margin = -15.45% (FCF TTM -166.1m / Revenue TTM 1.08b)
Net Margin = 4.98% (Net Income TTM 53.6m / Revenue TTM 1.08b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.08b - Cost of Revenue TTM 51.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 3.74b / Total Assets 2.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.51% (Interest Expense 27.9m / Debt 1.85b)
Taxrate = 2.75% (526k / 19.2m)
NOPAT = 52.8m (EBIT 54.3m * (1 - 2.75%))
Current Ratio = 2.99 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 401.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.32 (Debt 1.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 798.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.07 (Net Debt 1.19b / EBITDA 79.2m)
Debt / FCF = -7.18 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.19b / FCF TTM -166.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 735.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.01% (Net Income 53.6m / Total Assets 2.97b)
RoE = 7.29% (Net Income TTM 53.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 735.3m)
RoCE = 2.20% (EBIT 54.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 735.3m + L.T.Debt 1.73b))
RoIC = 2.25% (NOPAT 52.8m / Invested Capital 2.35b)
WACC = 8.89% (E(2.55b)/V(4.40b) * Re(14.28%) + D(1.85b)/V(4.40b) * Rd(1.51%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 14.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.52%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -166.1m)
EPS Correlation: 36.24 | EPS CAGR: -28.87% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 38.29 | Revenue CAGR: -0.52% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg7d=+0.015 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.26 | Chg7d=+0.032 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-6 | Growth EPS=+19.5% | Growth Revenue=+34.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.13 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.070 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+38.9% | Growth Revenue=+31.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.33 (2 Up / 4 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 12.5% (Discount Rate 14.3% - Earnings Yield 1.7%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +23.4% (Analyst 35.9% - Implied 12.5%)
P/E Forward = 27.027
P/S = 2.3687
P/B = 3.0854
Revenue TTM = 1.08b USD
EBIT TTM = 54.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 79.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.73b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 97.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.19b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.74b USD (2.55b + Debt 1.85b - CCE 657.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.05 (Ebit TTM 54.3m / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m)
EV/FCF = -22.52x (Enterprise Value 3.74b / FCF TTM -166.1m)
FCF Yield = -4.44% (FCF TTM -166.1m / Enterprise Value 3.74b)
FCF Margin = -15.45% (FCF TTM -166.1m / Revenue TTM 1.08b)
Net Margin = 4.98% (Net Income TTM 53.6m / Revenue TTM 1.08b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.08b - Cost of Revenue TTM 51.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 3.74b / Total Assets 2.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.51% (Interest Expense 27.9m / Debt 1.85b)
Taxrate = 2.75% (526k / 19.2m)
NOPAT = 52.8m (EBIT 54.3m * (1 - 2.75%))
Current Ratio = 2.99 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 401.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.32 (Debt 1.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 798.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.07 (Net Debt 1.19b / EBITDA 79.2m)
Debt / FCF = -7.18 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.19b / FCF TTM -166.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 735.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.01% (Net Income 53.6m / Total Assets 2.97b)
RoE = 7.29% (Net Income TTM 53.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 735.3m)
RoCE = 2.20% (EBIT 54.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 735.3m + L.T.Debt 1.73b))
RoIC = 2.25% (NOPAT 52.8m / Invested Capital 2.35b)
WACC = 8.89% (E(2.55b)/V(4.40b) * Re(14.28%) + D(1.85b)/V(4.40b) * Rd(1.51%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 14.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.52%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -166.1m)
EPS Correlation: 36.24 | EPS CAGR: -28.87% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 38.29 | Revenue CAGR: -0.52% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg7d=+0.015 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.26 | Chg7d=+0.032 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-6 | Growth EPS=+19.5% | Growth Revenue=+34.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.13 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.070 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+38.9% | Growth Revenue=+31.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.33 (2 Up / 4 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 12.5% (Discount Rate 14.3% - Earnings Yield 1.7%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +23.4% (Analyst 35.9% - Implied 12.5%)