Overview Dividends

(UPST) Upstart Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US91680M1071

Personal Loans, Auto Loans, Home Equity, Small Dollar

UPST EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): 29.53%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): 68.5%

UPST Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 19.61%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 75.6%

Description: UPST Upstart Holdings November 04, 2025

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending platform in the United States, offering personal loans, auto retail and refinance loans, home-equity lines, and small-ticket credit through three business segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other.

Founded in 2012 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, Upstart reported Q4 2023 revenue of roughly $215 million-a 15% year-over-year increase-but posted a net loss of $85 million, reflecting ongoing investment in model development and marketing. The company’s AI underwriting claims to cut default rates by about 30% versus conventional credit scores, a metric that has attracted both retail borrowers and institutional partners.

Key macro drivers include the Fed’s interest-rate policy, which influences consumer credit demand, and the broader fintech funding environment that can affect Upstart’s ability to scale its platform. Additionally, the adoption of AI-enhanced credit scoring across the consumer-finance sector is accelerating, potentially expanding the addressable market for Upstart’s technology.

For a deeper, data-driven look at Upstart’s valuation dynamics and risk profile, you might explore the analytical tools available on ValueRay.

UPST Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	4,572m
Sub-Industry	Consumer Finance
IPO / Inception	2020-12-16

UPST Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	5.20%
Fundamental	41.1%
Dividend Rating	-
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-56.1%
Analyst Rating	3.47 of 5

UPST Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

UPST Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-85%
Growth Correlation 12m	-24.5%
Growth Correlation 5y	-29.4%
CAGR 5y	19.84%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio)	0.28
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio)	0.51
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-0.31
Alpha	-58.87
Beta	2.282
Volatility	81.23%
Current Volume	8898.2k
Average Volume 20d	6426.4k
Stop Loss	35.8 (-7.3%)
Signal	-0.12

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5

Net Income (-6.35m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 52.6m TTM)

FCFTA -0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.80pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 38.95% (prev 251.7%; Δ -212.7pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA -0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO -65.2m <= Net Income -6.35m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0)

Current Ratio 2.17 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (102.9m) change vs 12m ago 16.30% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 89.47% (prev 77.54%; Δ 11.94pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 40.81% (prev 30.35%; Δ 10.46pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -0.70 (EBITDA TTM -6.08m / Interest Expense TTM 40.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.03

(A) 0.14 = (Total Current Assets 634.4m - Total Current Liabilities 292.8m) / Total Assets 2.48b

(B) -0.16 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -408.0m / Total Assets 2.48b

(D) -0.23 = Book Value of Equity -408.0m / Total Liabilities 1.76b

Total Rating: 0.03 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 41.10

1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50

2. FCF Yield -1.22% = -0.61

3. FCF Margin -7.85% = -2.95

4. Debt/Equity 2.04 = 0.71

5. Debt/Ebitda data missing

6. ROIC - WACC (= -12.50)% = -12.50

7. RoE -0.97% = -0.16

8. Rev. Trend 75.63% = 5.67

9. EPS Trend 68.55% = 3.43

What is the price of UPST shares?

As of November 10, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 38.60 with a total of 8,898,210 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -18.81%, over one month by -26.29%, over three months by -39.17% and over the past year by -50.18%.

Is Upstart Holdings a good stock to buy?

No, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) is currently (November 2025) a stock to sell. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 41.10 and therefor a negative outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of UPST is around 31.47 USD . This means that UPST is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -18.47%.

Is UPST a buy, sell or hold?

Upstart Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.47. Therefor, it is recommend to hold UPST.

Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 2
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the UPST price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	74.7	93.5%
Analysts Target Price	74.7	93.5%
ValueRay Target Price	35.9	-7%

UPST Fundamental Data Overview November 03, 2025

Market Cap USD = 4.57b (4.57b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 39.2157
P/S = 5.1675
P/B = 7.047
Beta = 2.282
Revenue TTM = 877.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -28.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -6.08m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.24b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 189.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.47b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.64b USD (4.57b + Debt 1.47b - CCE 400.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.70 (Ebit TTM -28.4m / Interest Expense TTM 40.7m)
FCF Yield = -1.22% (FCF TTM -68.9m / Enterprise Value 5.64b)
FCF Margin = -7.85% (FCF TTM -68.9m / Revenue TTM 877.0m)
Net Margin = -0.72% (Net Income TTM -6.35m / Revenue TTM 877.0m)
Gross Margin = 89.47% ((Revenue TTM 877.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 92.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 97.73% (prev 81.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.28 (Enterprise Value 5.64b / Total Assets 2.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.53% (Interest Expense 7.77m / Debt 1.47b)
Taxrate = 0.87% (49.0k / 5.66m)
NOPAT = -28.2m (EBIT -28.4m * (1 - 0.87%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.17 (Total Current Assets 634.4m / Total Current Liabilities 292.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.04 (Debt 1.47b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 722.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -176.2 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 1.07b / EBITDA -6.08m)
Debt / FCF = -15.56 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.07b / FCF TTM -68.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 656.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.26% (Net Income -6.35m / Total Assets 2.48b)
RoE = -0.97% (Net Income TTM -6.35m / Total Stockholder Equity 656.9m)
RoCE = -1.50% (EBIT -28.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 656.9m + L.T.Debt 1.24b))
RoIC = -1.47% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -28.2m / Invested Capital 1.92b)
WACC = 11.04% (E(4.57b)/V(6.04b) * Re(14.42%) + D(1.47b)/V(6.04b) * Rd(0.53%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 14.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.63%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -68.9m)
EPS Correlation: 68.55 | EPS CAGR: 29.53% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 75.63 | Revenue CAGR: 19.61% | SUE: 2.44 | # QB: 5

Additional Sources for UPST Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle