(USAR) USA Rare Earth - Overview
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 5.643m USD | Total Return: 199.1% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 441M
Warnings
Share dilution 136.5% YoY
High Debt/EBITDA (20.7) with thin interest coverage (-135.6)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio -135.6 is critical
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Choppy
Tailwinds
Rs(ibd) Leader
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) is a domestic materials company focused on the exploration, mining, and processing of critical minerals, including neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. The company’s primary asset is the Round Top Mountain project in Texas, which serves as a source for minerals essential to the production of permanent magnets, semiconductors, and aerospace components. Founded in 2019 and headquartered in Oklahoma, the firm aims to establish a vertically integrated supply chain to reduce reliance on foreign mineral processing.
The rare earth sector is characterized by high capital intensity and significant geopolitical sensitivity, as heavy rare earths like dysprosium are vital for high-performance motors and defense technologies. Unlike many mining operations that focus on a single element, USAR’s business model targets a diversified suite of critical minerals used across the data center and physical AI infrastructure markets. Investors can find deeper insights into these industry trends and valuation metrics on ValueRay. The companys 2023 public listing reflects a broader strategic shift toward securing domestic mineral independence within the United States.
- Round Top Mountain project development milestones and production timeline
- Domestic supply chain mandates for defense and semiconductor sectors
- Rare earth oxide price volatility impacts projected mining margins
- Capital expenditure requirements for magnet manufacturing and processing facilities
| Net Income: -416.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -138.3 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 544.4% < 20% (prev 5.87%; Δ 538.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -57.1m > Net Income -416.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 36.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (196.5m) vs 12m ago 136.5% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.92% > 50% (prev 407.6%; Δ -378.7% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -135.6 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -83.8m / Interest Expense TTM 645k) |
| A: 0.82 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 49.3m) / Total Assets 2.13b |
| B: -0.21 (Retained Earnings -454.3m / Total Assets 2.13b) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -87.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.11b) |
| D: -1.84 (Book Value of Equity -454.5m / Total Liabilities 247.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.20 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.04 (Receivables 5.69m/124.9m, Revenue 319.8m/314.2m) |
| GMI: 0.85 (GM 96.67% / 82.12%) |
| AQI: 156.2 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 319.8m / 314.2m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -416.4m - CFO -57.1m) / TA 2.13b) |
| Beneish M = 87.94 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of May 26, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.30 with a total of 18,209,700 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.73%,
over one month by +7.61%,
over three months by +26.00% and
over the past year by +199.05%.
USA Rare Earth has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy USAR.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 37.4 | 47.9% |
P/S = 768.6684
P/B = 3.0041
Revenue TTM = 319.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -87.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -83.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.6m USD (estimated: total debt 11.4m - short term 750k)
Short Term Debt = 750k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.28m
Net Debt = -1.74b USD (calculated: Debt 12.7m - CCE 1.75b)
Enterprise Value = 3.91b USD (5.64b + Debt 12.7m - CCE 1.75b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -135.6 (Ebit TTM -87.5m / Interest Expense TTM 645k)
EV/FCF = -8.23x (Enterprise Value 3.91b / FCF TTM -474.6m)
FCF Yield = -12.15% (FCF TTM -474.6m / Enterprise Value 3.91b)
FCF Margin = -148.4% (FCF TTM -474.6m / Revenue TTM 319.8m)
Net Margin = -130.2% (Net Income TTM -416.4m / Revenue TTM 319.8m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 319.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.83 (Enterprise Value 3.91b / Total Assets 2.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.10% (Interest Expense 645k / Debt 12.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -69.1m (EBIT -87.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 26.95 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 66.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 12.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 20.72 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -1.74b / EBITDA -83.8m)
Debt / FCF = 3.66 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -1.74b / FCF TTM -474.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 544.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -37.65% (Net Income -416.4m / Total Assets 2.13b)
RoE = -41.70% (Net Income TTM -416.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 998.6m)
RoCE = -8.67% (EBIT -87.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 998.6m + L.T.Debt 10.6m))
RoIC = -3.40% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -69.1m / Invested Capital 2.03b)
WACC = 4.07% (E(5.64b)/V(5.66b) * Re(4.07%) + D(12.7m)/V(5.66b) * Rd(5.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 4.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.81 | Cagr: 45.30%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -474.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.16 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.54 | Chg30d=-78.33% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+34.8% | GrowthRev=+4331.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=+98.98% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+97.2% | GrowthRev=+837.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -20%