USAR Stock Analysis: USA Rare Earth | NASDAQ
Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.685m USD | 12M Return: 68% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 270M
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 2.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) is a U.S.-based mining and materials company focused on the extraction, processing, and supply of rare earth elements and other critical minerals to customers in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Its portfolio targets heavy and light rare earths such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, yttrium, praseodymium, and samarium, along with other critical minerals including gallium and hafnium. The companys flagship asset is the Round Top Mountain deposit near Sierra Blanca, Texas, and its output serves end markets spanning aerospace, defense, semiconductors, data centers, energy, mobility, healthcare, and general industrial applications. Headquartered in Stillwater, Oklahoma, the company was founded in 2019 and trades as a mid-cap Materials stock within the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry following its mid-2023 listing.
As a domestic rare earth developer, USA Rare Earth operates in a sector where Western supply chains have been historically dominated by Chinese processing capacity, positioning U.S.-based producers as strategically important for defense and clean-energy applications that rely on permanent magnets and advanced alloys. The companys vertically integrated approach, spanning mining through downstream processing and magnet manufacturing, reflects a broader industry trend toward onshoring critical mineral supply chains.
- China rare earth export curbs tighten US supply alternatives
- Defense funding accelerates Round Top Mountain mine development
- Capital raise expected to fund magnet and processing expansion
| Net Income: -416.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.22 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -138.4 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 544.4% < 20% (prev 5.87%; Δ 538.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -57.1m > Net Income -416.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 36.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (196.5m) vs 12m ago 136.5% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.92% > 50% (prev 407.6%; Δ -378.7% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -441.0 > 6 (EBIT TTM -284.5m / Interest Expense TTM 645k) |
| A: 0.82 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 49.3m) / Total Assets 2.13b |
| B: -0.21 (Retained Earnings -454.3m / Total Assets 2.13b) |
| C: -0.26 (EBIT TTM -284.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.11b) |
| D: 7.59 (Book Value of Equity 1.88b / Total Liabilities 247.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 10.90 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 5.69m/124.9m, Revenue 319.8m/314.2m) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 82.12% / 97.32%) |
| AQI: 156.2 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 319.8m / 314.2m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -416.4m - CFO -57.1m) / TA 2.13b) |
| Beneish M = 88.14 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.48 with a total of 5,764,630 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.50%, over one month by -9.10%, over three months by +14.43% and over the past year by +68.00%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.80 (which is 19.9% or 2 ATR below the current price).
USA Rare Earth has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy USAR.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 39.5 | 113.7% |
P/S = 638.227
P/B = 2.6024
Revenue TTM = 319.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -284.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -280.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.6m USD (estimated: total debt 11.4m - short term 750k)
Short Term Debt = 750k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.28m
Net Debt = -1.74b USD (calculated: Debt 12.7m - CCE 1.75b)
Enterprise Value = 2.95b USD (4.69b + Debt 12.7m - CCE 1.75b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -441.0 (Ebit TTM -284.5m / Interest Expense TTM 645k)
EV/FCF = -6.20x (Enterprise Value 2.95b / FCF TTM -475.7m)
FCF Yield = -16.14% (FCF TTM -475.7m / Enterprise Value 2.95b)
FCF Margin = -148.7% (FCF TTM -475.7m / Revenue TTM 319.8m)
Net Margin = -130.2% (Net Income TTM -416.4m / Revenue TTM 319.8m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 319.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.56m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.38 (Enterprise Value 2.95b / Total Assets 2.13b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.10% (Interest Expense 645k / Debt 12.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -224.7m (EBIT -284.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 26.95 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 66.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 12.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.19 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -1.74b / EBITDA -280.8m)
Debt / FCF = 3.65 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -1.74b / FCF TTM -475.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 544.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -37.65% (Net Income -416.4m / Total Assets 2.13b)
RoE = -76.51% (Net Income TTM -416.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 544.2m)
RoCE = -51.27% (EBIT -284.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 544.2m + L.T.Debt 10.6m))
RoIC = -10.86% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -224.7m / Invested Capital 2.07b)
WACC = 5.78% (E(4.69b)/V(4.70b) * Re(5.78%) + D(12.7m)/V(4.70b) * Rd(5.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.81 | Cagr: 45.30%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -475.7m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: N/A | Revenue CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.13 | Chg30d=-12.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=+3.75% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.55 | Chg30d=-3.42% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+32.5% | GrowthRev=+4338.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+106.0% | GrowthRev=+828.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=1, down=1)