(VGLT) Vanguard Long-Term Treasury - Ratings and Ratios

The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (NASDAQ:VGLT) is designed to mirror the performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index, comprising U.S. Treasury securities with maturities exceeding 10 years, excluding inflation-protected bonds and floating rate securities. This indexing approach ensures that the funds returns closely track the underlying index, providing investors with exposure to long-term U.S. government debt.

Under normal market conditions, the fund invests at least 80% of its assets in the bonds included in the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index, maintaining a high level of correlation with the index. As a result, the funds performance is closely tied to the yield and price movements of long-term U.S. Treasury securities. With a total AUM of $9.554 billion, VGLT offers a substantial and liquid investment opportunity for those seeking to gain exposure to the long-term U.S. Treasury market.

Analyzing the technical data, we observe that the current price of VGLT is $55.02, slightly above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $54.42, indicating a potential bullish trend. However, the 50-day SMA at $55.33 and 200-day SMA at $56.42 suggest that the fund is currently facing resistance. With an average true range (ATR) of 0.57, representing a 1.03% daily price movement, we can expect moderate volatility. Given the current technical setup, it is likely that VGLT will experience a short-term correction before potentially resuming its upward trajectory.

Considering the fundamental data and the current interest rate environment, we forecast that VGLT will benefit from the expected decrease in long-term interest rates, leading to an increase in the funds net asset value. As the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to evolve, VGLTs exposure to long-term securities is likely to result in capital appreciation. Based on the current technical and fundamental analysis, we predict that VGLT will reach $58.50 within the next 6 months, representing a 6.3% increase from its current price.