VITL Stock Analysis: Vital Farms | NASDAQ

Farm Products | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 467m USD | 12M Return: -78.6% | US92847W1036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Shell Eggs, Butter, Hard-Boiled Eggs, Liquid Eggs
Total Rating 20
Safety 53
Buy Signal -1.54
Farm Products
Industry Rotation: +4.4
Market Cap: 467M
Avg Turnover: 16.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility59.9%
VaR 5th Pctl10.7%
VaR vs Median8.92%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-2.25
Rel. Str. IBD1.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group1.2
Character TTM
Beta0.293
Beta Downside0.631
Hurst Exponent0.556
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD84.20%
CAGR/Max DD-0.04
CAGR/Mean DD-0.12
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of VITL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.09, "2021-09": -0.03, "2021-12": -0.09, "2022-03": -0.04, "2022-06": 0.0047, "2022-09": 0.02, "2022-12": 0.04, "2023-03": 0.16, "2023-06": 0.15, "2023-09": 0.1, "2023-12": 0.17, "2024-03": 0.43, "2024-06": 0.36, "2024-09": 0.16, "2024-12": 0.23, "2025-03": 0.37, "2025-06": 0.36, "2025-09": 0.36, "2025-12": 0.35, "2026-03": -0.03, "2026-06": -0.47,
EPS CAGR: 2.27%
EPS Trend: 3.6%
Last SUE: -0.13
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of VITL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 60.323, 2021-09: 64.627, 2021-12: 77.405, 2022-03: 77.058, 2022-06: 82.87, 2022-09: 92.04, 2022-12: 110.081, 2023-03: 119.172, 2023-06: 106.445, 2023-09: 110.429, 2023-12: 135.811, 2024-03: 147.929, 2024-06: 147.388, 2024-09: 145.002, 2024-12: 165.989, 2025-03: 162.189, 2025-06: 184.767, 2025-09: 198.936, 2025-12: 213.552, 2026-03: 187.155, 2026-06: 166.029,
Rev. CAGR: 23.73%
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Last SUE: 1.13
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Fakeout
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 6 years of data

Jan -4.4% 12
Feb -7.9% 27
Mar -7.3% 31
Apr +2.0% 10
May -4.4% 10
Jun -0.9% 9
Jul -2.3% 15
Aug +14.0% 30
Sep -1.2% 25
Oct -2.5% 25
Nov +7.6% 29
Dec +9.3% 47

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: VITL Vital Farms

Vital Farms, Inc. (NASDAQ: VITL) is a U.S.-based food company headquartered in Austin, Texas, founded in 2007 and publicly listed since its July 2020 IPO. The company packages, markets, and distributes shell eggs, butter, and related egg products sourced from animals raised on family farms, selling its goods through third-party distributors, direct retail channels, and foodservice operators (both commercial and non-commercial).

Operating within the Consumer Staples sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats), Vital Farms competes in the premium and pasture-raised segment of the egg and dairy categories, where brand differentiation is often driven by animal-welfare certifications and small-farm sourcing narratives rather than price-based competition. Its multi-channel distribution model, spanning grocery retail and foodservice, gives it exposure to both at-home consumption and away-from-home dining trends.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Egg commodity prices swing on supply and demand shifts
  • Avian flu outbreaks disrupt supply and lift shell egg prices
  • Retail distribution expansion drives pasture-raised egg volume growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 156k TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.25 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -24.55 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 2.00% < 20% (prev 24.98%; Δ -22.98% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -16.7m > Net Income 156k
Net Debt (165.3m) to EBITDA (31.9m): 5.19 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (42.9m) vs 12m ago -6.26% < -2%
Gross Margin: 28.12% > 18% (prev 37.64%; Δ -9.52% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 164.2% > 50% (prev 152.7%; Δ 11.42% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.74 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.11m / Interest Expense TTM 2.36m)
Altman Z'' 2.38
A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 162.9m - Total Current Liabilities 147.6m) / Total Assets 502.1m
B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 116.8m / Total Assets 502.1m)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 4.11m / Avg Total Assets 466.4m)
D: 1.30 (Book Value of Equity 283.7m / Total Liabilities 218.4m)
Altman-Z'' = 2.38 = BBB
Beneish M -2.53
DSRI: 0.65 (Receivables 52.1m/68.4m, Revenue 765.7m/657.9m)
GMI: 1.34 (GM 37.64% / 28.12%)
AQI: 1.60 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.03)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 765.7m / 657.9m)
TATA: 0.03 (NI 156k - CFO -16.7m) / TA 502.1m)
Beneish M = -2.53 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of VITL shares?

As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.08 with a total of 2,278,718 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.72%, over one month by -14.90%, over three months by +12.26% and over the past year by -78.57%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.10 (which is 8.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is VITL a buy, sell or hold?

Vital Farms has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.58. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VITL.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the VITL price?
Analysts Target Price 13.2 19.3%
Vital Farms (VITL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 21 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 466.7m (466.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 208.3333
P/S = 0.6095
P/B = 1.6679
Revenue TTM = 765.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 4.11m USD
EBITDA TTM = 31.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 30.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 38.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 186.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 78.2m
Net Debt = 165.3m USD (calculated: Debt 186.5m - CCE 21.2m)
Enterprise Value = 631.9m USD (466.7m + Debt 186.5m - CCE 21.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.74 (Ebit TTM 4.11m / Interest Expense TTM 2.36m)
EV/FCF = -5.01x (Enterprise Value 631.9m / FCF TTM -126.1m)
FCF Yield = -19.96% (FCF TTM -126.1m / Enterprise Value 631.9m)
FCF Margin = -16.47% (FCF TTM -126.1m / Revenue TTM 765.7m)
Net Margin = 0.02% (Net Income TTM 156k / Revenue TTM 765.7m)
Gross Margin = 28.12% ((Revenue TTM 765.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 550.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.58% (prev 28.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 631.9m / Total Assets 502.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.27% (Interest Expense 2.36m / Debt 186.5m)
Taxrate = 27.37% (25.0m / 91.3m)
NOPAT = 2.98m (EBIT 4.11m * (1 - 27.37%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 162.9m / Total Current Liabilities 147.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 186.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 283.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.19 (Net Debt 165.3m / EBITDA 31.9m)
 Debt / FCF = -1.31 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 165.3m / FCF TTM -126.1m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 324.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.03% (Net Income 156k / Total Assets 502.1m)
RoE = 0.05% (Net Income TTM 156k / Total Stockholder Equity 324.3m)
RoCE = 1.16% (EBIT 4.11m / Capital Employed (Equity 324.3m + L.T.Debt 30.0m))
RoIC = 0.80% (NOPAT 2.98m / Invested Capital 371.2m)
WACC = 5.27% (E(466.7m)/V(653.2m) * Re(7.01%) + D(186.5m)/V(653.2m) * Rd(1.27%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 7.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -14.59 | Cagr: -0.93%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -126.1m)
 EPS Correlation: 3.64 | EPS CAGR: 2.27% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.02 | Revenue CAGR: 23.73% | SUE: 1.13 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.07 | Chg30d=-13.12% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.41 | Chg30d=+2.46% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-128.7% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=-41.03% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+163.5% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)