VLY Stock Analysis: Valley National Bancorp | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 8.085m USD | 12M Return: 61.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Consumer Banking, Wealth Management, Insurance Services
Total Rating 55
Safety 62
Buy Signal 0.44
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 8.08B
Avg Turnover: 99.1M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility24.1%
VaR 5th Pctl4.04%
VaR vs Median1.61%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.73
Rel. Str. IBD81.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group88.8
Character TTM
Beta1.020
Beta Downside0.908
Hurst Exponent0.509
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD39.47%
CAGR/Max DD0.74
CAGR/Mean DD2.30
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of VLY over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.3, "2021-09": 0.3, "2021-12": 0.28, "2022-03": 0.28, "2022-06": 0.32, "2022-09": 0.35, "2022-12": 0.35, "2023-03": 0.3, "2023-06": 0.28, "2023-09": 0.26, "2023-12": 0.22, "2024-03": 0.19, "2024-06": 0.13, "2024-09": 0.18, "2024-12": 0.13, "2025-03": 0.18, "2025-06": 0.23, "2025-09": 0.28, "2025-12": 0.31, "2026-03": 0.28,
EPS CAGR: -9.72%
EPS Trend: -37.4%
Last SUE: 0.39
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of VLY over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 376.804, 2021-09: 371.197, 2021-12: 378.112, 2022-03: 379.671, 2022-06: 511.194, 2022-09: 592.734, 2022-12: 699.396, 2023-03: 769.542, 2023-06: 847.816, 2023-09: 864.991, 2023-12: 870.991, 2024-03: 886.516, 2024-06: 884.72, 2024-09: 913.9, 2024-12: 886.457, 2025-03: 843.06, 2025-06: 867.612, 2025-09: 891.81, 2025-12: 892.138, 2026-03: 871.56,
Rev. CAGR: 4.73%
Rev. Trend: 69.7%
Last SUE: 0.60
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +4.3% 27
Feb -0.9% 29
Mar -6.0% 31
Apr -1.0% 2
May -1.2% 25
Jun +1.5% 2
Jul +0.0% 11
Aug -1.4% 9
Sep -1.3% 22
Oct +0.1% 8
Nov +5.8% 40
Dec -4.0% 6

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: VLY Valley National Bancorp

Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ: VLY) is the holding company for Valley National Bank, a regional bank founded in 1927 and headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate, offering a full suite of deposit products (non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposits) and lending services spanning commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate, construction, residential mortgages, home equity, and consumer/auto loans.

Beyond traditional banking, Valley provides wealth management, trust and estate services, brokerage, insurance agency, equipment leasing, and private banking, along with niche offerings such as homeowners association banking, cannabis-related business banking, and venture banking. As a mid-cap U.S. regional bank, Valleys business model is centered on relationship-based lending and deposit gathering in its core Northeast markets, where commercial real estate exposure is typically a meaningful driver of loan portfolio performance for the regional banking sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Commercial real estate loan losses pressure credit quality
  • Net interest margin compresses as deposit costs rise
  • Acquisition integration drives loan and deposit growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 655.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.16 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -4.06% < 20% (prev -1.37k%; Δ 1.36k% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 570.6m > Net Income 655.8m
Net Debt (3.05b) to EBITDA (880.7m): 3.46 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.81 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (559.3m) vs 12m ago -0.72% < -2%
Gross Margin: 56.47% > 18% (prev 43.73%; Δ 12.73% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.58% > 50% (prev 5.70%; Δ -0.13% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.57 > 6 (EBIT TTM 813.9m / Interest Expense TTM 1.44b)
Altman Z'' 0.32
A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 606.3m - Total Current Liabilities 749.3m) / Total Assets 64.5b
B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 2.00b / Total Assets 64.5b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 813.9m / Avg Total Assets 63.2b)
D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 7.83b / Total Liabilities 56.6b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.32 = B
Beneish M -3.20
DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 244.3m/238.3m, Revenue 3.52b/3.53b)
GMI: 0.77 (GM 43.73% / 56.47%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.96)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.52b / 3.53b)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 655.8m - CFO 570.6m) / TA 64.5b)
Beneish M = -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of VLY shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.87 with a total of 4,789,281 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.50%, over one month by +8.81%, over three months by +18.72% and over the past year by +61.82%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.40 (which is 3.2% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is VLY a buy, sell or hold?

Valley National Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.58. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VLY.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the VLY price?
Analysts Target Price 16.1 8.3%
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 8.08b (8.08b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.1441
P/E Forward = 11.7096
P/S = 4.1655
P/B = 1.098
P/EG = 1.1627
Revenue TTM = 3.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 813.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 880.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.62b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 63.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.41b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 364.0m
Net Debt = 3.05b USD (calculated: Debt 3.41b - CCE 362.1m)
Enterprise Value = 11.1b USD (8.08b + Debt 3.41b - CCE 362.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.57 (Ebit TTM 813.9m / Interest Expense TTM 1.44b)
EV/FCF = 20.09x (Enterprise Value 11.1b / FCF TTM 554.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 554.1m / Enterprise Value 11.1b)
FCF Margin = 15.73% (FCF TTM 554.1m / Revenue TTM 3.52b)
Net Margin = 18.62% (Net Income TTM 655.8m / Revenue TTM 3.52b)
Gross Margin = 56.47% ((Revenue TTM 3.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.56% (prev 58.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.17 (Enterprise Value 11.1b / Total Assets 64.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 42.09% (Interest Expense 1.44b / Debt 3.41b)
Taxrate = 19.42% (158.1m / 813.9m)
NOPAT = 655.8m (EBIT 813.9m * (1 - 19.42%))
Current Ratio = 0.81 (Total Current Assets 606.3m / Total Current Liabilities 749.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 3.41b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.46 (Net Debt 3.05b / EBITDA 880.7m)
Debt / FCF = 5.50 (Net Debt 3.05b / FCF TTM 554.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.73b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.04% (Net Income 655.8m / Total Assets 64.5b)
RoE = 8.49% (Net Income TTM 655.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.73b)
RoCE = 7.87% (EBIT 813.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.73b + L.T.Debt 2.62b))
RoIC = 1.02% (NOPAT 655.8m / Invested Capital 64.3b)
WACC = 16.79% (E(8.08b)/V(11.5b) * Re(9.57%) + D(3.41b)/V(11.5b) * Rd(42.09%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.44 | Cagr: 4.21%
[DCF] Terminal Value 55.42% ; FCFF base≈505.2m ; Y1≈579.2m ; Y5≈852.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 3.66 (EV 5.08b - Net Debt 3.05b = Equity 2.03b / Shares 554.1m; r=16.79% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -37.45 | EPS CAGR: -9.72% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.67 | Revenue CAGR: 4.73% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=-0.15% | Revisions=+30% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.28 | Chg30d=-0.43% | Revisions=+55% | GrowthEPS=+29.6% | GrowthRev=+12.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=+0.03% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+20.0% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +44% (up=18, down=6)