Overview Dividends

(WMG) Warner Music - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US9345502036

Recorded Music, Music Publishing, Catalog Licensing, Label Portfolio

Movies & Entertainment
Market Cap in USD: 15,333m

IPO / Inception: 2020-06-03
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -15.3%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 9.98%
EPS Trend: 25.8%

Last SUE: 1.48
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 3.97%
Rev. Trend: 62.1%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 2

Dividends

Dividend Yield	2.48%
Yield on Cost 5y	2.20%
Yield CAGR 5y	30.68%
Payout Consistency	100.0%
Payout Ratio	52.0%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	28.3%
Value at Risk 5%th	41.5%
Relative Tail Risk	-10.89%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.08
Alpha	-13.27
CAGR/Max DD	-0.09

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.523
Beta	0.512
Beta Downside	0.644

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	36.52%
Mean DD	15.83%
Median DD	15.05%

Description: WMG Warner Music December 19, 2025

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) is a global music-entertainment company operating in the U.S., U.K., Germany and other markets, split between Recorded Music and Music Publishing segments. It discovers, signs and develops artists, then markets, promotes, distributes and licenses their recordings across physical, digital and streaming channels.

The publishing arm controls roughly two million compositions spanning pop, standards, folk, film scores and more, while the recorded-music side runs a portfolio of labels-including Warner Records, Parlophone, Spinnin’ Records and Warner Classics-that serve genres from hip-hop to classical.

Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached $2.2 billion, with streaming accounting for about 70 % of total sales; adjusted EPS grew 12 % YoY, driven by higher royalty splits and a 4 % increase in global streaming subscriptions. The recorded-music market remains fragmented, but WMG holds an estimated 12 % share, positioning it to benefit from continued growth in subscription-based streaming and higher-margin sync licensing.

Macro-level drivers include the ongoing shift from ad-supported to subscription streaming, rising advertising spend on digital platforms, and expanding global royalty collection infrastructure that improves cash-flow predictability for publishers.

For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of WMG’s cash-flow assumptions and comparable peer metrics.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0

Net Income (621.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 402.4m TTM)

FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.02pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -21.34% (prev -19.51%; Δ -1.82pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 678.0m > Net Income 621.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (4.08b) to EBITDA (1.02b) ratio: 3.99 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (986.3m) change vs 12m ago 90.57% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 45.85% (prev 47.79%; Δ -1.94pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 70.66% (prev 70.19%; Δ 0.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 3.99 (EBITDA TTM 1.02b / Interest Expense TTM 162.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -1.11

(A) -0.15 = (Total Current Assets 2.77b - Total Current Liabilities 4.20b) / Total Assets 9.83b

(B) -0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.33b / Total Assets 9.83b

(D) -0.17 = Book Value of Equity -1.52b / Total Liabilities 9.07b

Total Rating: -1.11 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.40

1. Piotroski 4.0pt

2. FCF Yield 2.21%

3. FCF Margin 6.38%

4. Debt/Equity 7.12

5. Debt/Ebitda 3.99

6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.60)%

7. RoE 105.8%

8. Rev. Trend 62.09%

9. EPS Trend 25.76%

What is the price of WMG shares?

As of December 26, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 29.83 with a total of 419,200 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.48%, over one month by +2.93%, over three months by -10.21% and over the past year by -1.63%.

Is WMG a buy, sell or hold?

Warner Music has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89. Therefore, it is recommended to buy WMG.

Strong Buy: 9
Buy: 2
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the WMG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	37.8	26.7%
Analysts Target Price	37.8	26.7%
ValueRay Target Price	30.6	2.5%

WMG Fundamental Data Overview December 22, 2025

Market Cap USD = 15.33b (15.33b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 42.5362
P/E Forward = 19.685
P/S = 2.2811
P/B = 23.6979
P/EG = 0.7879
Beta = 1.314
Revenue TTM = 6.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 646.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.37b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 43.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.61b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.08b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.41b USD (15.33b + Debt 4.61b - CCE 532.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.99 (Ebit TTM 646.0m / Interest Expense TTM 162.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.21% (FCF TTM 428.0m / Enterprise Value 19.41b)
FCF Margin = 6.38% (FCF TTM 428.0m / Revenue TTM 6.71b)
Net Margin = 9.26% (Net Income TTM 621.0m / Revenue TTM 6.71b)
Gross Margin = 45.85% ((Revenue TTM 6.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.65% (prev 45.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.97 (Enterprise Value 19.41b / Total Assets 9.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.93% (Interest Expense 43.0m / Debt 4.61b)
Taxrate = -244.3% (out of range, set to none) (-259.0m / 106.0m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 2.77b / Total Current Liabilities 4.20b)
Debt / Equity = 7.12 (Debt 4.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 647.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.99 (Net Debt 4.08b / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = 9.52 (Net Debt 4.08b / FCF TTM 428.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 587.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.32% (Net Income 621.0m / Total Assets 9.83b)
RoE = 105.8% (Net Income TTM 621.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 587.0m)
RoCE = 13.05% (EBIT 646.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 587.0m + L.T.Debt 4.37b))
RoIC = 12.68% (EBIT 646.0m / (Assets 9.83b - Curr.Liab 4.20b - Cash 532.0m))
WACC = 6.07% (E(15.33b)/V(19.94b) * Re(7.90%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 7.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 38.19%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.87% ; FCFE base≈453.6m ; Y1≈472.4m ; Y5≈543.6m
Fair Price DCF = 64.93 (DCF Value 9.55b / Shares Outstanding 147.0m; 5y FCF grow 4.38% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 25.76 | EPS CAGR: 9.98% | SUE: 1.48 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 62.09 | Revenue CAGR: 3.97% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=+0.087 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+27.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=+0.046 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+8.8% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%

Additional Sources for WMG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle