WMG Stock Analysis: Warner Music | NASDAQ
Entertainment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 14.063m USD | 12M Return: 3.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 62.0M
EPS Trend: 7.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.8%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality
Warner Music Group (NASDAQ: WMG) is a music entertainment company operating in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and other international markets. The business is organized into two segments: Recorded Music and Music Publishing, through which it discovers and develops artists, markets and distributes their music, and licenses a catalog of approximately two million compositions spanning pop, rock, jazz, classical, country, hip-hop, and other genres.
WMG runs a portfolio of record labels including Asylum, Parlophone, Reprise, Sire, Spinnin Records, Warner Classics, and Warner Records Nashville,
- Streaming growth lifts recorded music revenue and margins
- Catalog acquisitions expand publishing segment cash flow
- AI music regulation reshapes licensing revenue potential
| Net Income: 452.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.85% < 20% (prev -20.79%; Δ 3.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 851.0m > Net Income 452.0m |
| Net Debt (4.42b) to EBITDA (1.25b): 3.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (519.0m) vs 12m ago -0.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.80% > 18% (prev 46.81%; Δ -1.01% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.65% > 50% (prev 66.20%; Δ 4.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 767.0m / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 3.22b - Total Current Liabilities 4.42b) / Total Assets 10.6b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -1.17b / Total Assets 10.6b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 767.0m / Avg Total Assets 10.1b) |
| D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 738.0m / Total Liabilities 9.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.51 = B |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 1.50b/1.22b, Revenue 7.13b/6.33b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 46.81% / 45.80%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.65) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 7.13b / 6.33b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 452.0m - CFO 851.0m) / TA 10.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.85 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.96 with a total of 2,688,207 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.30%, over one month by -21.99%, over three months by +11.93% and over the past year by +3.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.70 (which is 4.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Warner Music has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89. Therefore, it is recommended to buy WMG.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 38.1 | 41.4% |
P/E Trailing = 32.0952
P/E Forward = 13.1926
P/S = 1.9726
P/B = 19.027
P/EG = 0.4924
Revenue TTM = 7.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 767.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.25b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 222.0m
Net Debt = 4.42b USD (calculated: Debt 5.16b - CCE 741.0m)
Enterprise Value = 18.5b USD (14.1b + Debt 5.16b - CCE 741.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.54 (Ebit TTM 767.0m / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m)
EV/FCF = 26.15x (Enterprise Value 18.5b / FCF TTM 707.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.82% (FCF TTM 707.0m / Enterprise Value 18.5b)
FCF Margin = 9.92% (FCF TTM 707.0m / Revenue TTM 7.13b)
Net Margin = 6.34% (Net Income TTM 452.0m / Revenue TTM 7.13b)
Gross Margin = 45.80% ((Revenue TTM 7.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.86b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.30% (prev 46.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.74 (Enterprise Value 18.5b / Total Assets 10.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.27% (Interest Expense 169.0m / Debt 5.16b)
Taxrate = 24.54% (146.0m / 595.0m)
NOPAT = 578.8m (EBIT 767.0m * (1 - 24.54%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 3.22b / Total Current Liabilities 4.42b)
Debt / Equity = 7.00 (Debt 5.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 738.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.52 (Net Debt 4.42b / EBITDA 1.25b)
Debt / FCF = 6.25 (Net Debt 4.42b / FCF TTM 707.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 673.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.48% (Net Income 452.0m / Total Assets 10.6b)
RoE = 67.11% (Net Income TTM 452.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 673.5m)
RoCE = 14.22% (EBIT 767.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 673.5m + L.T.Debt 4.72b))
RoIC = 9.84% (NOPAT 578.8m / Invested Capital 5.88b)
WACC = 6.53% (E(14.1b)/V(19.2b) * Re(8.02%) + D(5.16b)/V(19.2b) * Rd(3.27%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.81 | Cagr: 0.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.91% ; FCFF base≈671.0m ; Y1≈766.5m ; Y5≈1.12b
[DCF] Fair Price = 84.90 (EV 16.8b - Net Debt 4.42b = Equity 12.4b / Shares 146.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 14.59% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 7.57 | EPS CAGR: 1.35% | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.81 | Revenue CAGR: 5.22% | SUE: 1.75 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+2.66% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.84 | Chg30d=+23.02% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+50.5% | GrowthRev=+8.5%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.96 | Chg30d=+11.02% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+6.5% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +60%