WMG Stock Analysis: Warner Music | NASDAQ
Entertainment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 16.426m USD | 12M Return: -3.8% | US9345502036 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 66.2M
EPS Trend: 23.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Warner Music Group (NASDAQ: WMG) is one of the Big Three major global record labels, alongside Universal Music Group and Sony Music Entertainment. The company operates two core segments: Recorded Music (signing artists, producing and distributing recordings) and Music Publishing (owning and administering the rights to songs and compositions). Founded in 1929 and headquartered in New York, WMG went public in June 2020 and is classified under the Communication Services sector.
The Recorded Music segment runs a portfolio of well-known labels including Warner Records, Parlophone, Atlantic-adjacent imprints such as Asylum and Reprise, as well as Warner Classics, Sire, and Spinnin Records. WMG discovers and develops artists, then markets, distributes, and licenses their music through physical retailers, wholesale distributors, streaming platforms, and download services. Its catalog spans pop, rock, hip-hop, country, classical, R&B, Latin, and other genres.
The Music Publishing segment controls rights to approximately two million compositions, ranging from pop hits and American standards to motion picture and theatrical works. WMG also administers soundtracks for third-party film and television studios, generating revenue from licensing fees, mechanical royalties, and synchronization deals. This dual structure allows the company to earn from both the recording of a song (master rights) and the underlying composition (publishing rights), a standard model in the modern music industry where streaming has become the dominant format for music consumption.
- Streaming royalty growth accelerates recorded music revenue
- Catalog acquisitions expand publishing segment margins
- AI copyright disputes threaten licensing revenue streams
| Net Income: 672.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.20% < 20% (prev -21.21%; Δ 5.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 939.0m > Net Income 672.0m |
| Net Debt (4.51b) to EBITDA (1.45b): 3.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (524.4m) vs 12m ago 0.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.77% > 18% (prev 46.64%; Δ -0.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.24% > 50% (prev 66.17%; Δ 5.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 175.0m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 3.26b - Total Current Liabilities 4.44b) / Total Assets 10.7b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -1.07b / Total Assets 10.7b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 1.03b / Avg Total Assets 10.3b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 854.0m / Total Liabilities 9.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.28 = B |
| DSRI: 1.55 (Receivables 2.28b/1.30b, Revenue 7.30b/6.47b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 46.64% / 45.77%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.66) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 7.30b / 6.47b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 672.0m - CFO 939.0m) / TA 10.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.48 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.29 with a total of 1,867,471 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.42%, over one month by +11.61%, over three months by +10.52% and over the past year by -3.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.80 (which is 4.9% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Warner Music has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy WMG.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 38 | 25.5% |
P/E Trailing = 25.12
P/E Forward = 13.089
P/S = 2.2489
P/B = 16.6366
P/EG = 0.4866
Revenue TTM = 7.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.03b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.45b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 44.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.13b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 209.0m
Net Debt = 4.51b USD (calculated: Debt 5.13b - CCE 618.0m)
Enterprise Value = 20.9b USD (16.4b + Debt 5.13b - CCE 618.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.88 (Ebit TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 175.0m)
EV/FCF = 25.72x (Enterprise Value 20.9b / FCF TTM 814.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.89% (FCF TTM 814.0m / Enterprise Value 20.9b)
FCF Margin = 11.14% (FCF TTM 814.0m / Revenue TTM 7.30b)
Net Margin = 9.20% (Net Income TTM 672.0m / Revenue TTM 7.30b)
Gross Margin = 45.77% ((Revenue TTM 7.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.96b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.82% (prev 46.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.95 (Enterprise Value 20.9b / Total Assets 10.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.41% (Interest Expense 175.0m / Debt 5.13b)
Taxrate = 23.83% (208.0m / 873.0m)
NOPAT = 783.8m (EBIT 1.03b * (1 - 23.83%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 3.26b / Total Current Liabilities 4.44b)
Debt / Equity = 6.00 (Debt 5.13b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 854.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.12 (Net Debt 4.51b / EBITDA 1.45b)
Debt / FCF = 5.54 (Net Debt 4.51b / FCF TTM 814.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 739.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.55% (Net Income 672.0m / Total Assets 10.7b)
RoE = 90.84% (Net Income TTM 672.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 739.8m)
RoCE = 18.88% (EBIT 1.03b / Capital Employed (Equity 739.8m + L.T.Debt 4.71b))
RoIC = 13.15% (NOPAT 783.8m / Invested Capital 5.96b)
WACC = 5.56% (E(16.4b)/V(21.6b) * Re(6.49%) + D(5.13b)/V(21.6b) * Rd(3.41%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.55 | Cagr: 0.56%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈674.0m ; Y1≈772.6m ; Y5≈1.14b
[DCF] Fair Price = 85.30 (EV 17.1b - Net Debt 4.51b = Equity 12.6b / Shares 147.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 23.93 | EPS CAGR: 5.30% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.36 | Revenue CAGR: 5.75% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+7.24% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.78 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+45.7% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=-0.17% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+10.4% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=1, down=5)