(WMG) Warner Music - Overview
Stock: Recorded Music, Music Publishing, Catalog Licensing, Label Portfolio
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.41% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.31% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.20% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 52.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.12 |
| Alpha | -13.92 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.558 |
| Beta Downside | 0.681 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.53% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.15 |
Description: WMG Warner Music December 19, 2025
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) is a global music-entertainment company operating in the U.S., U.K., Germany and other markets, split between Recorded Music and Music Publishing segments. It discovers, signs and develops artists, then markets, promotes, distributes and licenses their recordings across physical, digital and streaming channels.
The publishing arm controls roughly two million compositions spanning pop, standards, folk, film scores and more, while the recorded-music side runs a portfolio of labels-including Warner Records, Parlophone, Spinnin’ Records and Warner Classics-that serve genres from hip-hop to classical.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached $2.2 billion, with streaming accounting for about 70 % of total sales; adjusted EPS grew 12 % YoY, driven by higher royalty splits and a 4 % increase in global streaming subscriptions. The recorded-music market remains fragmented, but WMG holds an estimated 12 % share, positioning it to benefit from continued growth in subscription-based streaming and higher-margin sync licensing.
Macro-level drivers include the ongoing shift from ad-supported to subscription streaming, rising advertising spend on digital platforms, and expanding global royalty collection infrastructure that improves cash-flow predictability for publishers.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of WMG’s cash-flow assumptions and comparable peer metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 494.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -20.71% < 20% (prev -19.03%; Δ -1.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 678.0m > Net Income 494.0m |
| Net Debt (4.08b) to EBITDA (908.0m): 4.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (519.0m) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.40% > 18% (prev 0.47%; Δ 4494 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 72.82% > 50% (prev 69.36%; Δ 3.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.59 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 908.0m / Interest Expense TTM 165.0m) |
Altman Z'' -1.27
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 2.77b - Total Current Liabilities 4.20b) / Total Assets 9.83b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -1.33b / Total Assets 9.83b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 428.0m / Avg Total Assets 9.49b) |
| D: -0.17 (Book Value of Equity -1.52b / Total Liabilities 9.07b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.27 = CCC |
Beneish M -2.90
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 1.34b/1.20b, Revenue 6.91b/6.34b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 45.40% / 46.89%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 6.91b / 6.34b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 494.0m - CFO 678.0m) / TA 9.83b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.90 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of WMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.07%, over one month by -1.16%, over three months by -4.02% and over the past year by -2.79%.
Is WMG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the WMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37.7 | 26.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37.7 | 26.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 30.4 | 1.6% |
WMG Fundamental Data Overview January 28, 2026
P/E Forward = 20.3666
P/S = 2.3655
P/B = 24.4782
P/EG = 0.814
Revenue TTM = 6.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 428.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 908.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.37b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 43.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 4.61b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 4.08b USD (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 19.94b USD (15.87b + Debt 4.61b - CCE 532.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.59 (Ebit TTM 428.0m / Interest Expense TTM 165.0m)
EV/FCF = 46.59x (Enterprise Value 19.94b / FCF TTM 428.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.15% (FCF TTM 428.0m / Enterprise Value 19.94b)
FCF Margin = 6.19% (FCF TTM 428.0m / Revenue TTM 6.91b)
Net Margin = 7.15% (Net Income TTM 494.0m / Revenue TTM 6.91b)
Gross Margin = 45.40% ((Revenue TTM 6.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.65% (prev 44.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.03 (Enterprise Value 19.94b / Total Assets 9.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.87% (Interest Expense 40.0m / Debt 4.61b)
Taxrate = 24.49% (120.0m / 490.0m)
NOPAT = 323.2m (EBIT 428.0m * (1 - 24.49%))
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 2.77b / Total Current Liabilities 4.20b)
Debt / Equity = 7.12 (Debt 4.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last fiscal year 647.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.49 (Net Debt 4.08b / EBITDA 908.0m)
Debt / FCF = 9.52 (Net Debt 4.08b / FCF TTM 428.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 587.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.21% (Net Income 494.0m / Total Assets 9.83b)
RoE = 84.16% (Net Income TTM 494.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 587.0m)
RoCE = 8.64% (EBIT 428.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 587.0m + L.T.Debt 4.37b))
RoIC = 6.54% (NOPAT 323.2m / Invested Capital 4.94b)
WACC = 6.32% (E(15.87b)/V(20.47b) * Re(7.97%) + D(4.61b)/V(20.47b) * Rd(0.87%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 7.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.03% ; FCFF base≈453.6m ; Y1≈472.3m ; Y5≈542.3m
Fair Price DCF = 68.26 (EV 14.11b - Net Debt 4.08b = Equity 10.03b / Shares 147.0m; r=6.32% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 4.38% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 14.88 | EPS CAGR: -42.16% | SUE: -2.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 78.81 | Revenue CAGR: 8.49% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+27.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.73 | Chg30d=+0.031 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+10.8% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%