(WMG) Warner Music - Ratings and Ratios
Recorded Music,Music Publishing
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.59% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.65% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 30.68% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 52.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.40% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.33 |
| Alpha | -19.17 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.498 |
| Beta | 0.521 |
| Beta Downside | 0.640 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.52% |
| Mean DD | 15.48% |
| Median DD | 14.79% |
Description: WMG Warner Music October 16, 2025
Warner Music Group Corp. (NASDAQ: WMG) is a global music-entertainment company operating in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany and other markets through two main segments: Recorded Music and Music Publishing. The Recorded Music segment discovers, develops, markets, promotes, distributes, sells and licenses recordings from a portfolio of labels that includes Warner Records, Atlantic Records, Parlophone, Spinnin’ Records and others, reaching retailers, wholesalers, streaming platforms and direct-to-consumer channels. The Music Publishing segment owns roughly one million compositions across all major genres and administers third-party sync rights for film, TV and advertising.
Key recent metrics indicate that streaming now accounts for about 70 % of WMG’s total revenue, with 2023 earnings of roughly $5.2 billion and a 12 % year-over-year increase in net income driven by higher royalty yields and cost-discipline. The company’s publishing royalties have risen faster than the recorded-music side, reflecting a broader industry shift toward sync licensing and the growing value of catalog assets. Macro-level drivers include continued global growth in paid-subscription streaming, the rollout of high-resolution audio formats, and emerging AI-generated music tools that could reshape royalty structures.
For a deeper dive into WMG’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, you might explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (621.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 402.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.02pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -21.34% (prev -19.51%; Δ -1.82pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 678.0m > Net Income 621.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (4.08b) to EBITDA (1.02b) ratio: 3.99 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (986.3m) change vs 12m ago 90.57% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 45.85% (prev 47.79%; Δ -1.94pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 70.66% (prev 70.19%; Δ 0.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.99 (EBITDA TTM 1.02b / Interest Expense TTM 162.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.11
| (A) -0.15 = (Total Current Assets 2.77b - Total Current Liabilities 4.20b) / Total Assets 9.83b |
| (B) -0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.33b / Total Assets 9.83b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 646.0m / Avg Total Assets 9.49b |
| (D) -0.17 = Book Value of Equity -1.52b / Total Liabilities 9.07b |
| Total Rating: -1.11 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.47
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.28% |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.38% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 7.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.99 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.63)% |
| 7. RoE 105.8% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 62.09% |
| 9. EPS Trend 25.76% |
What is the price of WMG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.35%, over one month by -4.77%, over three months by -14.60% and over the past year by -8.24%.
Is WMG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the WMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 38 | 32.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 38 | 32.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 29.4 | 2.7% |
WMG Fundamental Data Overview November 30, 2025
P/E Trailing = 40.9275
P/E Forward = 18.797
P/S = 2.1948
P/B = 22.6079
P/EG = 0.7517
Beta = 1.304
Revenue TTM = 6.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 646.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.37b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 43.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.61b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.08b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 18.80b USD (14.72b + Debt 4.61b - CCE 532.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.99 (Ebit TTM 646.0m / Interest Expense TTM 162.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.28% (FCF TTM 428.0m / Enterprise Value 18.80b)
FCF Margin = 6.38% (FCF TTM 428.0m / Revenue TTM 6.71b)
Net Margin = 9.26% (Net Income TTM 621.0m / Revenue TTM 6.71b)
Gross Margin = 45.85% ((Revenue TTM 6.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.65% (prev 45.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.91 (Enterprise Value 18.80b / Total Assets 9.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.93% (Interest Expense 43.0m / Debt 4.61b)
Taxrate = -244.3% (out of range, set to none) (-259.0m / 106.0m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 2.77b / Total Current Liabilities 4.20b)
Debt / Equity = 7.12 (Debt 4.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 647.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.99 (Net Debt 4.08b / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = 9.52 (Net Debt 4.08b / FCF TTM 428.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 587.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.32% (Net Income 621.0m / Total Assets 9.83b)
RoE = 105.8% (Net Income TTM 621.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 587.0m)
RoCE = 13.05% (EBIT 646.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 587.0m + L.T.Debt 4.37b))
RoIC = 12.68% (EBIT 646.0m / (Assets 9.83b - Curr.Liab 4.20b - Cash 532.0m))
WACC = 6.05% (E(14.72b)/V(19.33b) * Re(7.94%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 7.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.87% ; FCFE base≈453.6m ; Y1≈472.4m ; Y5≈543.6m
Fair Price DCF = 65.43 (DCF Value 9.55b / Shares Outstanding 145.9m; 5y FCF grow 4.38% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 25.76 | EPS CAGR: 9.98% | SUE: 1.48 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 62.09 | Revenue CAGR: 3.97% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=+0.087 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+27.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=+0.046 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+8.8% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%
Additional Sources for WMG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle