WMG Stock Analysis: Warner Music | NASDAQ
Entertainment | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 13.849m USD | 12M Return: -5.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 52.3M
EPS Trend: 7.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.8%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Warner Music Group (NASDAQ: WMG) is a music entertainment company operating in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and other international markets. The business is organized into two segments: Recorded Music and Music Publishing, through which it discovers and develops artists, markets and distributes their music, and licenses a catalog of approximately two million compositions spanning pop, rock, jazz, classical, country, hip-hop, and other genres.
WMG runs a portfolio of record labels including Asylum, Parlophone, Reprise, Sire, Spinnin Records, Warner Classics, and Warner Records Nashville,
- Streaming growth lifts recorded music revenue and margins
- Catalog acquisitions expand publishing segment cash flow
- AI music regulation reshapes licensing revenue potential
| Net Income: 452.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.85% < 20% (prev -20.79%; Δ 3.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 851.0m > Net Income 452.0m |
| Net Debt (4.42b) to EBITDA (1.25b): 3.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (519.0m) vs 12m ago -0.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.80% > 18% (prev 46.81%; Δ -1.01% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.65% > 50% (prev 66.20%; Δ 4.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 767.0m / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 3.22b - Total Current Liabilities 4.42b) / Total Assets 10.6b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -1.17b / Total Assets 10.6b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 767.0m / Avg Total Assets 10.1b) |
| D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 738.0m / Total Liabilities 9.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.51 = B |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 1.50b/1.22b, Revenue 7.13b/6.33b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 46.81% / 45.80%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.65) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 7.13b / 6.33b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 452.0m - CFO 851.0m) / TA 10.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.85 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.76 with a total of 1,922,241 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.92%, over one month by +8.16%, over three months by +1.29% and over the past year by -5.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.70 (which is 7.2% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Warner Music has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89. Therefore, it is recommended to buy WMG.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 37.9 | 31.7% |
P/E Trailing = 31.6071
P/E Forward = 13.0208
P/S = 1.9426
P/B = 18.769
P/EG = 0.4857
Revenue TTM = 7.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 767.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.25b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 222.0m
Net Debt = 4.42b USD (calculated: Debt 5.16b - CCE 741.0m)
Enterprise Value = 18.3b USD (13.8b + Debt 5.16b - CCE 741.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.54 (Ebit TTM 767.0m / Interest Expense TTM 169.0m)
EV/FCF = 25.84x (Enterprise Value 18.3b / FCF TTM 707.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.87% (FCF TTM 707.0m / Enterprise Value 18.3b)
FCF Margin = 9.92% (FCF TTM 707.0m / Revenue TTM 7.13b)
Net Margin = 6.34% (Net Income TTM 452.0m / Revenue TTM 7.13b)
Gross Margin = 45.80% ((Revenue TTM 7.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.86b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.30% (prev 46.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.72 (Enterprise Value 18.3b / Total Assets 10.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.27% (Interest Expense 169.0m / Debt 5.16b)
Taxrate = 24.54% (146.0m / 595.0m)
NOPAT = 578.8m (EBIT 767.0m * (1 - 24.54%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 3.22b / Total Current Liabilities 4.42b)
Debt / Equity = 7.00 (Debt 5.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 738.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.52 (Net Debt 4.42b / EBITDA 1.25b)
Debt / FCF = 6.25 (Net Debt 4.42b / FCF TTM 707.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 673.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.48% (Net Income 452.0m / Total Assets 10.6b)
RoE = 67.11% (Net Income TTM 452.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 673.5m)
RoCE = 14.22% (EBIT 767.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 673.5m + L.T.Debt 4.72b))
RoIC = 9.84% (NOPAT 578.8m / Invested Capital 5.88b)
WACC = 6.51% (E(13.8b)/V(19.0b) * Re(8.02%) + D(5.16b)/V(19.0b) * Rd(3.27%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 66.81 | Cagr: 0.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.91% ; FCFF base≈671.0m ; Y1≈766.5m ; Y5≈1.12b
[DCF] Fair Price = 84.90 (EV 16.8b - Net Debt 4.42b = Equity 12.4b / Shares 146.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 14.59% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 7.57 | EPS CAGR: 1.35% | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.81 | Revenue CAGR: 5.22% | SUE: 1.75 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-0.64% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=1.84 | Chg30d=+0.27% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+50.9% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.96 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +53% (up=13, down=3)