XEL Stock Analysis: Xcel Energy | NASDAQ

Electricity, Natural Gas, Pipelines, Storage

Total Rating 32

Safety 54

Buy Signal -0.50

Utilities - Regulated Electric
Industry Rotation: +13.7

Market Cap: 46.6B
Avg Turnover: 392M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility18.4%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.23%

VaR vs Median6.78%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.28

Rel. Str. IBD35.4

Rel. Str. Peer Group43.6 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.115

Beta Downside0.131

Hurst Exponent0.526

Choppyness63.6%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD23.99%

CAGR/Max DD0.56

CAGR/Mean DD2.42

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 7.01%
EPS Trend: 94.1%

Last SUE: 2.23
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 1.22%
Rev. Trend: 32.5%

Last SUE: -1.21
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

High Debt While Negative Cash Flow

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.3% 5

Feb -5.1% 9

Mar +2.1% 29

Apr -0.1% 5

May -0.4% 8

Jun -3.6% 36

Jul +1.2% 29

Aug -0.5% 10

Sep -1.3% 22

Oct +0.5% 26

Nov +0.8% 16

Dec -0.9% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: XEL Xcel Energy

Xcel Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: XEL) is a U.S. regulated electric and natural gas delivery company headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and incorporated in 1909 (formerly Northern States Power Company). It operates through two reportable segments-Regulated Electric Utility and Regulated Natural Gas Utility-serving customers in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin.

The electric segment generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity from a diversified energy portfolio that includes wind, nuclear, hydroelectric, biomass, and solar power from owned facilities and power purchase agreements (PPAs), supplemented by coal and natural gas generation, along with wholesale transmission and commodity trading activities. The natural gas segment purchases, transports, stores, distributes, and sells natural gas, and also develops and leases interstate pipelines and storage facilities.

As a large-cap utility (GICS Utilities / Electric Utilities), Xcels business model is anchored in state-regulated rate structures, where cost recovery and authorized returns are set by public utility commissions, generally providing stable, predictable cash flows. The dual-fuel model-electric and gas operations across multiple states-diversifies the regulated rate base and reduces dependence on any single jurisdiction or commodity, while investments in community solar gardens and energy technology reflect limited nonregulated growth initiatives alongside the core utility business.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Colorado rate case approval lifts regulated electric ROE
Multi-billion clean energy capex expands rate base across eight states
Rising interest rates pressure utility valuations and borrowing costs

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0

Net Income: 2.23b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.65 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -17.72% < 20% (prev -1.57%; Δ -16.15% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 4.77b > Net Income 2.23b
Net Debt (39.2b) to EBITDA (6.53b): 6.00 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.70 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (627.0m) vs 12m ago 7.73% < -2%
Gross Margin: 48.84% > 18% (prev 45.82%; Δ 3.02% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 17.99% > 50% (prev 18.53%; Δ -0.54% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 1.48b)

Altman Z'' 0.85

A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 6.08b - Total Current Liabilities 8.67b) / Total Assets 87.2b
B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 9.61b / Total Assets 87.2b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 3.48b / Avg Total Assets 81.3b)
D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 24.1b / Total Liabilities 63.1b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.85 = B

Beneish M -3.03

DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 2.04b/1.96b, Revenue 14.6b/14.0b)
GMI: 0.94 (GM 45.82% / 48.84%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.10)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 14.6b / 14.0b)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 2.23b - CFO 4.77b) / TA 87.2b)
Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of XEL shares?

As of October 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 76.31 with a total of 6,279,134 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.43%, over one month by +3.64%, over three months by -2.34% and over the past year by -3.05%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 74.50 (which is 2.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is XEL a buy, sell or hold?

Xcel Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.58. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XEL.

StrongBuy: 13
Buy: 4
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the XEL price?

Analysts Target Price	89.8	17.7%

Xcel Energy (XEL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 15 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 46.6b (46.6b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 20.4493
P/E Forward = 15.9744
P/S = 3.1898
P/B = 1.8347
P/EG = 1.7763
Revenue TTM = 14.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.48b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.53b USD
Long Term Debt = 35.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.62b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 41.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 866.0m
Net Debt = 39.2b USD (calculated: Debt 41.2b - CCE 2.01b)
Enterprise Value = 85.8b USD (46.6b + Debt 41.2b - CCE 2.01b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.35 (Ebit TTM 3.48b / Interest Expense TTM 1.48b)
EV/FCF = -11.15x (Enterprise Value 85.8b / FCF TTM -7.69b)
FCF Yield = -8.96% (FCF TTM -7.69b / Enterprise Value 85.8b)
FCF Margin = -52.63% (FCF TTM -7.69b / Revenue TTM 14.6b)
Net Margin = 15.28% (Net Income TTM 2.23b / Revenue TTM 14.6b)
Gross Margin = 48.84% ((Revenue TTM 14.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.06% (prev 44.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 85.8b / Total Assets 87.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.60% (Interest Expense 1.48b / Debt 41.2b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 2.75b (EBIT 3.48b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.70 (Total Current Assets 6.08b / Total Current Liabilities 8.67b)
Debt / Equity = 1.71 (Debt 41.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 24.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.00 (Net Debt 39.2b / EBITDA 6.53b)
Debt / FCF = -5.09 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 39.2b / FCF TTM -7.69b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.75% (Net Income 2.23b / Total Assets 87.2b)
RoE = 9.64% (Net Income TTM 2.23b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.2b)
RoCE = 5.89% (EBIT 3.48b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.2b + L.T.Debt 35.9b))
RoIC = 3.38% (NOPAT 2.75b / Invested Capital 81.4b)
WACC = 4.53% (E(46.6b)/V(87.8b) * Re(6.03%) + D(41.2b)/V(87.8b) * Rd(3.60%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.54 | Cagr: 5.49%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -7.69b)
EPS Correlation: 94.12 | EPS CAGR: 7.01% | SUE: 2.23 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 32.51 | Revenue CAGR: 1.22% | SUE: -1.21 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+1.81% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.12 | Chg30d=+0.18% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+8.5% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+10.2% | GrowthRev=+9.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)