XP Stock Analysis: Xp | NASDAQ

Capital Markets | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 10.245m USD | 12M Return: 9.3% | KYG982391099 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Brokerage Securities, Fixed Income, Investment Funds, Wealth Management
Total Rating 45
Safety 51
Buy Signal 0.49
Capital Markets
Industry Rotation: +0.1
Market Cap: 10.2B
Avg Turnover: 134M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility44.2%
VaR 5th Pctl7.39%
VaR vs Median1.53%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Rel. Str. IBD77.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group73.4
Character TTM
Beta1.363
Beta Downside1.153
Hurst Exponent0.516
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD56.64%
CAGR/Max DD-0.01
CAGR/Mean DD-0.01
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of XP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 1.82, "2021-12": 1.88, "2022-03": 1.71, "2022-06": 1.81, "2022-09": 2, "2022-12": 1.59, "2023-03": 1.52, "2023-06": 1.99, "2023-09": 2.13, "2023-12": 2.08, "2024-03": 1.85, "2024-06": 2.03, "2024-09": 2.18, "2024-12": 2.23, "2025-03": 2.29, "2025-06": 0.43, "2025-09": 2.47, "2025-12": 2.56, "2026-03": 2.49, "2026-06": 0.53,
EPS CAGR: 0.56%
EPS Trend: 8.7%
Last SUE: 0.39
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of XP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 3316.079265, 2021-12: 1406.235, 2022-03: 2829.633307, 2022-06: 3688.064197, 2022-09: 3744.403547, 2022-12: 1345.984, 2023-03: 3119.208671, 2023-06: 3532.914015, 2023-09: 4298.648276, 2023-12: 4097.166, 2024-03: 4182.478416, 2024-06: 4662.220982, 2024-09: 4354.277692, 2024-12: 4243.919, 2025-03: 4319.059768, 2025-06: 4381.801889, 2025-09: 4592.384462, 2025-12: 5062.556061, 2026-03: 4615.520535, 2026-06: 4994.58854,
Rev. CAGR: 11.65%
Rev. Trend: 83.4%
Last SUE: 0.10
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 6.6 years of data

Jan +15.1% 44
Feb -2.3% 16
Mar -4.3% 34
Apr -0.9% 2
May -1.7% 15
Jun +1.4% 0
Jul +3.1% 18
Aug +11.8% 14
Sep -0.0% 9
Oct -6.4% 12
Nov -0.5% 9
Dec -4.9% 20

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: XP Xp

XP Inc. is a Brazilian financial services company that operates an open product platform connecting clients to a broad range of investment offerings, including brokerage, fixed income, mutual and hedge funds, derivatives, credit cards, loans, insurance, pension products, and wealth management services. It serves both retail and institutional clients through securities brokerage, interdealer brokerage, and issuer services.

The company also manages proprietary and third-party mutual funds across equities, macro, fixed income, credit, and alternative strategies, and provides commercial and investment banking products such as loans, foreign exchange, and deposits. Financial education courses, both online and in-person, complement its product suite, which is distributed through an omni-channel network and online portals. Founded in 2001, XP went public on the Nasdaq in December 2019 and is classified within the Investment Banking & Brokerage sub-industry of the Financials sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Brazil Selic rate cuts pressure fixed income revenue
  • Retail trading volumes decline amid Bovespa volatility
  • Asset management AUM growth expands recurring fee base
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 5.32b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.51 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -232.0% < 20% (prev -228.3%; Δ -3.67% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 21.8b > Net Income 5.32b
Net Debt (84.8b) to EBITDA (6.56b): 12.92 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.50 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (520.5m) vs 12m ago -2.85% < -2%
Gross Margin: 66.69% > 18% (prev 68.80%; Δ -2.10% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 4.93% > 50% (prev 4.63%; Δ 0.30% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.22b / Interest Expense TTM 491.3m)
Altman Z'' -0.52
A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 45.1b - Total Current Liabilities 89.8b) / Total Assets 407b
B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 2.70b / Total Assets 407b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 6.22b / Avg Total Assets 391b)
D: 0.06 (Book Value of Equity 24.8b / Total Liabilities 383b)
Altman-Z'' = -0.52 = B
Beneish M -2.67
DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 37.1b/34.7b, Revenue 19.3b/17.3b)
GMI: 1.03 (GM 68.80% / 66.69%)
AQI: 1.49 (AQ_t 0.89 / AQ_t-1 0.60)
SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 19.3b / 17.3b)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 5.32b - CFO 21.8b) / TA 407b)
Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of XP shares?

As of September 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 20.52 with a total of 6,434,586 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.63%, over one month by +20.21%, over three months by +31.88% and over the past year by +9.29%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 19.50 (which is 5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is XP a buy, sell or hold?

Xp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.25. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XP.

  • StrongBuy: 5
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the XP price?
Analysts Target Price 23.3 13.6%
Xp (XP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 19 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 10.2b (10.2b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap BRL = 53.0b (10.2b USD * 5.1703 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 10.0448
P/E Forward = 8.5034
P/S = 0.5499
P/B = 2.076
Revenue TTM = 19.3b BRL
EBIT TTM = 6.22b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 6.56b BRL
Long Term Debt = 48.7b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.8b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 92.8b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 84.8b BRL (calculated: Debt 92.8b - CCE 7.97b)
Enterprise Value = 138b BRL (53.0b + Debt 92.8b - CCE 7.97b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.67 (Ebit TTM 6.22b / Interest Expense TTM 491.3m)
EV/FCF = 6.40x (Enterprise Value 138b / FCF TTM 21.5b)
FCF Yield = 15.62% (FCF TTM 21.5b / Enterprise Value 138b)
 FCF Margin = 111.7% (FCF TTM 21.5b / Revenue TTM 19.3b)
 Net Margin = 27.59% (Net Income TTM 5.32b / Revenue TTM 19.3b)
Gross Margin = 66.69% ((Revenue TTM 19.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.42b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.41% (prev 65.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.34 (Enterprise Value 138b / Total Assets 407b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.53% (Interest Expense 491.3m / Debt 92.8b)
Taxrate = 7.31% (419.1m / 5.73b)
NOPAT = 5.77b (EBIT 6.22b * (1 - 7.31%))
Current Ratio = 0.50 (Total Current Assets 45.1b / Total Current Liabilities 89.8b)
Debt / Equity = 3.74 (Debt 92.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 24.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.92 (Net Debt 84.8b / EBITDA 6.56b)
Debt / FCF = 3.94 (Net Debt 84.8b / FCF TTM 21.5b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.36% (Net Income 5.32b / Total Assets 407b)
RoE = 22.05% (Net Income TTM 5.32b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.1b)
RoCE = 8.55% (EBIT 6.22b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.1b + L.T.Debt 48.7b))
RoIC = 1.42% (NOPAT 5.77b / Invested Capital 406b)
WACC = 4.22% (E(53.0b)/V(146b) * Re(10.76%) + D(92.8b)/V(146b) * Rd(0.53%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 10.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.49 | Cagr: -2.29%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈17.1b ; Y1≈19.5b ; Y5≈28.8b
[DCF] Fair Price = 858.2 (EV 433b - Net Debt 84.8b = Equity 348b / Shares 405.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 8.68 | EPS CAGR: 0.56% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.40 | Revenue CAGR: 11.65% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.75 | Chg30d=+0.39% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.79 | Chg30d=+0.43% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+9.9% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.18 | Chg30d=+1.06% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+12.9% | GrowthRev=+11.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +70% (up=7, down=0)