XP Stock Analysis: Xp | NASDAQ
Capital Markets | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 14.833m USD | 12M Return: 81.1% | KYG982391099 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 302M
EPS Trend: 8.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 83.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 6.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XP Inc. is a Cayman Islands-based financial services company that operates primarily in Brazil, providing a broad range of investment products and services to retail, institutional, and corporate clients. Its core offering is the XP Platform, an open product platform where clients can access brokerage securities, fixed income, mutual, hedge, and private equity funds, derivatives, credit cards, loan operations, pension and social security products, and various insurance offerings. The company also provides wealth management services, issuer and institutional brokerage, interdealer brokerage, and commercial and investment banking products including foreign exchange and deposits.
In addition to its investment and banking operations, XP manages proprietary and third-party mutual funds across equity, macro, fixed income, credit, real estate, infrastructure, and alternative strategies, including passive index-tracking funds. The company distributes its products and services through an omni-channel network and online portals, and it also sells financial education courses and events. Founded in 2001 and listed on NASDAQ since its 2019 IPO, XP operates within the Investment Banking & Brokerage sub-industry, a segment of the broader Financials sector that has grown rapidly in Brazil as retail participation in capital markets has expanded.
- Brazilian Selic rate cuts pressure net interest income
- Retail investor activity growth drives brokerage and platform revenue
- Competitive pressure from BTG and Nubank pressures market share
| Net Income: 5.32b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -232.0% < 20% (prev -228.3%; Δ -3.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 21.8b > Net Income 5.32b |
| Net Debt (84.8b) to EBITDA (6.56b): 12.92 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (520.5m) vs 12m ago -2.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.69% > 18% (prev 68.80%; Δ -2.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.93% > 50% (prev 4.63%; Δ 0.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.22b / Interest Expense TTM 491.3m) |
| A: -0.11 (Total Current Assets 45.1b - Total Current Liabilities 89.8b) / Total Assets 407b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 2.70b / Total Assets 407b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 6.22b / Avg Total Assets 391b) |
| D: 0.06 (Book Value of Equity 24.8b / Total Liabilities 383b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.52 = B |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 37.1b/34.7b, Revenue 19.3b/17.3b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 68.80% / 66.69%) |
| AQI: 1.49 (AQ_t 0.89 / AQ_t-1 0.60) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 19.3b / 17.3b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 5.32b - CFO 21.8b) / TA 407b) |
| Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.41 with a total of 12,299,882 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.04%, over one month by +45.64%, over three months by +80.69% and over the past year by +81.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.70 (which is 5.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Xp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.54. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XP.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 26.2 | -13.9% |
Market Cap BRL = 73.6b (14.8b USD * 4.9654 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 15.3037
P/E Forward = 8.5034
P/S = 0.7961
P/B = 2.1814
Revenue TTM = 19.3b BRL
EBIT TTM = 6.22b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 6.56b BRL
Long Term Debt = 48.7b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.8b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 92.8b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 84.8b BRL (calculated: Debt 92.8b - CCE 7.97b)
Enterprise Value = 158b BRL (73.6b + Debt 92.8b - CCE 7.97b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.67 (Ebit TTM 6.22b / Interest Expense TTM 491.3m)
EV/FCF = 7.36x (Enterprise Value 158b / FCF TTM 21.5b)
FCF Yield = 13.58% (FCF TTM 21.5b / Enterprise Value 158b)
FCF Margin = 111.7% (FCF TTM 21.5b / Revenue TTM 19.3b)
Net Margin = 27.59% (Net Income TTM 5.32b / Revenue TTM 19.3b)
Gross Margin = 66.69% ((Revenue TTM 19.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.42b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.41% (prev 65.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.39 (Enterprise Value 158b / Total Assets 407b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.53% (Interest Expense 491.3m / Debt 92.8b)
Taxrate = 7.31% (419.1m / 5.73b)
NOPAT = 5.77b (EBIT 6.22b * (1 - 7.31%))
Current Ratio = 0.50 (Total Current Assets 45.1b / Total Current Liabilities 89.8b)
Debt / Equity = 3.74 (Debt 92.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 24.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.92 (Net Debt 84.8b / EBITDA 6.56b)
Debt / FCF = 3.94 (Net Debt 84.8b / FCF TTM 21.5b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.36% (Net Income 5.32b / Total Assets 407b)
RoE = 22.05% (Net Income TTM 5.32b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.1b)
RoCE = 8.55% (EBIT 6.22b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.1b + L.T.Debt 48.7b))
RoIC = 1.42% (NOPAT 5.77b / Invested Capital 406b)
WACC = 5.02% (E(73.6b)/V(166b) * Re(10.72%) + D(92.8b)/V(166b) * Rd(0.53%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 10.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.49 | Cagr: -2.29%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈17.1b ; Y1≈19.5b ; Y5≈28.8b
[DCF] Fair Price = 858.2 (EV 433b - Net Debt 84.8b = Equity 348b / Shares 405.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 8.68 | EPS CAGR: 0.56% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.40 | Revenue CAGR: 11.65% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.75 | Chg30d=+0.23% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.92 | Chg30d=+0.88% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+11.3% | GrowthRev=+9.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.54 | Chg30d=+2.94% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+14.8% | GrowthRev=+12.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=6, down=1)