XPEL Stock Analysis: Xpel | NASDAQ

Auto Parts | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.255m USD | 12M Return: 30.9% | US98379L1008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Paint Protection, Window Films, Ceramic Coatings, Software
Total Rating 58
Safety 82
Buy Signal -0.70
Auto Parts
Industry Rotation: +1.8
Market Cap: 1.25B
Avg Turnover: 8.58M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility48.8%
VaR 5th Pctl7.70%
VaR vs Median-3.61%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.81
Rel. Str. IBD34.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group52.9
Character TTM
Beta1.540
Beta Downside1.533
Hurst Exponent0.593
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD68.11%
CAGR/Max DD-0.26
CAGR/Mean DD-0.41
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of XPEL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.3, "2021-12": 0.22, "2022-03": 0.28, "2022-06": 0.43, "2022-09": 0.48, "2022-12": 0.3, "2023-03": 0.41, "2023-06": 0.57, "2023-09": 0.56, "2023-12": 0.43, "2024-03": 0.29, "2024-06": 0.54, "2024-09": 0.54, "2024-12": 0.32, "2025-03": 0.31, "2025-06": 0.59, "2025-09": 0.47, "2025-12": 0.48, "2026-03": 0.37, "2026-06": 0.68,
EPS CAGR: 0.30%
EPS Trend: 4.8%
Last SUE: 1.03
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of XPEL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 68.529, 2021-12: 70.132069, 2022-03: 71.864, 2022-06: 83.89, 2022-09: 89.758, 2022-12: 78.481, 2023-03: 85.842, 2023-06: 102.237, 2023-09: 102.677, 2023-12: 105.538, 2024-03: 90.104, 2024-06: 109.917, 2024-09: 112.852, 2024-12: 107.527, 2025-03: 103.805, 2025-06: 124.713, 2025-09: 125.415, 2025-12: 122.267, 2026-03: 117.354, 2026-06: 143.053,
Rev. CAGR: 11.03%
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Last SUE: 2.30
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Choppy
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -3.2% 2
Feb -5.2% 20
Mar -0.1% 5
Apr +2.9% 18
May +5.7% 16
Jun -0.2% 7
Jul +1.4% 5
Aug +14.8% 52
Sep -1.1% 26
Oct -8.6% 43
Nov +4.4% 27
Dec -6.0% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: XPEL Xpel

XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ: XPEL) is a manufacturer and distributor of protective films, coatings, and related services primarily serving the automotive aftermarket. Its product lineup includes automotive paint protection films (PPF), windshield protection, window films (for both automotive and architectural applications), ceramic coatings, after-care products, and installation tools and accessories. A notable differentiator in its business model is its proprietary DAP (Design Access Program) software, which provides pre-cut patterns matched to specific vehicle makes and models, supporting both DIY installers and professional shops.

The company sells through a multi-channel distribution network spanning independent installers, franchised dealers, new car dealerships, third-party distributors, automotive OEMs, company-owned installation centers, and e-commerce. XPEL was founded in 1997, is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, and operates internationally across North America, the Asia Pacific (including China and India), the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. As a small-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company sits within the broader automotive parts and equipment industry, where PPF and window tint demand is tied to vehicle parc size, consumer spending on vehicle personalization, and the adoption of protective coatings by dealerships and OEMs.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • US new vehicle sales recovery boosts PPF volume
  • International expansion drives revenue in China and Europe
  • Competition from 3M pressures pricing and margins
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 54.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -17.25 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 27.55% < 20% (prev 34.01%; Δ -6.47% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 74.0m > Net Income 54.7m
Net Debt (41.6m) to EBITDA (83.3m): 0.50 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.61 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (27.6m) vs 12m ago -0.11% < -2%
Gross Margin: 42.90% > 18% (prev 42.11%; Δ 0.79% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 128.5% > 50% (prev 141.1%; Δ -12.62% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 255.8 > 6 (EBIT TTM 68.6m / Interest Expense TTM 268k)
Altman Z'' 7.22
A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 226.9m - Total Current Liabilities 86.9m) / Total Assets 472.6m
B: 0.62 (Retained Earnings 293.7m / Total Assets 472.6m)
C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 68.6m / Avg Total Assets 395.4m)
D: 1.99 (Book Value of Equity 306.1m / Total Liabilities 154.1m)
Altman-Z'' = 7.22 = AAA
Beneish M -2.76
DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 53.6m/38.1m, Revenue 508.1m/448.9m)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 42.11% / 42.90%)
AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.26)
SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 508.1m / 448.9m)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 54.7m - CFO 74.0m) / TA 472.6m)
Beneish M = -2.76 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of XPEL shares?

As of September 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 42.96 with a total of 364,686 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.60%, over one month by -13.67%, over three months by -11.99% and over the past year by +30.86%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 41.00 (which is 4.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is XPEL a buy, sell or hold?

Xpel has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPEL.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the XPEL price?
Analysts Target Price 61.7 43.6%
Xpel (XPEL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 23 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.25b (1.25b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 22.9848
P/S = 2.4695
P/B = 4.0295
Revenue TTM = 508.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 68.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 83.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 43.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.72m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 82.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.8m
Net Debt = 41.6m USD (calculated: Debt 82.3m - CCE 40.7m)
Enterprise Value = 1.30b USD (1.25b + Debt 82.3m - CCE 40.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 255.8 (Ebit TTM 68.6m / Interest Expense TTM 268k)
EV/FCF = -412.7x (Enterprise Value 1.30b / FCF TTM -3.14m)
FCF Yield = -0.24% (FCF TTM -3.14m / Enterprise Value 1.30b)
FCF Margin = -0.62% (FCF TTM -3.14m / Revenue TTM 508.1m)
Net Margin = 10.77% (Net Income TTM 54.7m / Revenue TTM 508.1m)
Gross Margin = 42.90% ((Revenue TTM 508.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 290.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.14% (prev 43.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.74 (Enterprise Value 1.30b / Total Assets 472.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.33% (Interest Expense 268k / Debt 82.3m)
Taxrate = 19.53% (13.5m / 69.1m)
NOPAT = 55.2m (EBIT 68.6m * (1 - 19.53%))
Current Ratio = 2.61 (Total Current Assets 226.9m / Total Current Liabilities 86.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 82.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 306.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (Net Debt 41.6m / EBITDA 83.3m)
 Debt / FCF = -13.25 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 41.6m / FCF TTM -3.14m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 285.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.84% (Net Income 54.7m / Total Assets 472.6m)
RoE = 19.15% (Net Income TTM 54.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 285.8m)
RoCE = 20.82% (EBIT 68.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 285.8m + L.T.Debt 43.5m))
RoIC = 15.03% (NOPAT 55.2m / Invested Capital 367.0m)
WACC = 10.70% (E(1.25b)/V(1.34b) * Re(11.38%) + D(82.3m)/V(1.34b) * Rd(0.33%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 11.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 49.40 | Cagr: 0.01%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -3.14m)
 EPS Correlation: 4.80 | EPS CAGR: 0.30% | SUE: 1.03 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.02 | Revenue CAGR: 11.03% | SUE: 2.30 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.25 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+11.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.70 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+20.0% | GrowthRev=+10.6%