XPEL Stock Analysis: Xpel | NASDAQ

Auto Parts | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.223m USD | 12M Return: 35.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Paint Protection, Window Films, Ceramic Coatings, Software
Total Rating 57
Safety 81
Buy Signal -0.82
Auto Parts
Industry Rotation: +0.1
Market Cap: 1.22B
Avg Turnover: 8.86M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility49.6%
VaR 5th Pctl7.82%
VaR vs Median-3.41%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.97
Rel. Str. IBD42
Rel. Str. Peer Group50
Character TTM
Beta1.755
Beta Downside1.478
Hurst Exponent0.603
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD71.18%
CAGR/Max DD-0.26
CAGR/Mean DD-0.38
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of XPEL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.37, "2021-09": 0.3, "2021-12": 0.22, "2022-03": 0.28, "2022-06": 0.43, "2022-09": 0.48, "2022-12": 0.3, "2023-03": 0.41, "2023-06": 0.57, "2023-09": 0.56, "2023-12": 0.43, "2024-03": 0.29, "2024-06": 0.54, "2024-09": 0.54, "2024-12": 0.32, "2025-03": 0.31, "2025-06": 0.59, "2025-09": 0.47, "2025-12": 0.48, "2026-03": 0.37,
EPS CAGR: -0.87%
EPS Trend: -16.4%
Last SUE: 0.14
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of XPEL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 68.736, 2021-09: 68.529, 2021-12: 70.132069, 2022-03: 71.864, 2022-06: 83.89, 2022-09: 89.758, 2022-12: 78.481, 2023-03: 85.842, 2023-06: 102.237, 2023-09: 102.677, 2023-12: 105.538, 2024-03: 90.104, 2024-06: 109.917, 2024-09: 112.852, 2024-12: 107.527, 2025-03: 103.805, 2025-06: 124.713, 2025-09: 125.415, 2025-12: 122.267, 2026-03: 117.354,
Rev. CAGR: 11.23%
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Last SUE: 1.18
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Choppy
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -3.2% 2
Feb -5.2% 20
Mar -0.1% 5
Apr +2.9% 18
May +5.7% 16
Jun -0.2% 7
Jul +1.4% 5
Aug +15.0% 45
Sep -1.1% 26
Oct -8.6% 43
Nov +4.4% 27
Dec -6.0% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: XPEL Xpel

XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ: XPEL) is a manufacturer and distributor of protective films, coatings, and related services primarily serving the automotive aftermarket. Its product lineup includes automotive paint protection films (PPF), windshield protection, window films (for both automotive and architectural applications), ceramic coatings, after-care products, and installation tools and accessories. A notable differentiator in its business model is its proprietary DAP (Design Access Program) software, which provides pre-cut patterns matched to specific vehicle makes and models, supporting both DIY installers and professional shops.

The company sells through a multi-channel distribution network spanning independent installers, franchised dealers, new car dealerships, third-party distributors, automotive OEMs, company-owned installation centers, and e-commerce. XPEL was founded in 1997, is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, and operates internationally across North America, the Asia Pacific (including China and India), the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. As a small-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company sits within the broader automotive parts and equipment industry, where PPF and window tint demand is tied to vehicle parc size, consumer spending on vehicle personalization, and the adoption of protective coatings by dealerships and OEMs.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • US new vehicle sales recovery boosts PPF volume
  • International expansion drives revenue in China and Europe
  • Competition from 3M pressures pricing and margins
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 53.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.69 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 32.66% < 20% (prev 31.49%; Δ 1.17% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 71.1m > Net Income 53.0m
Net Debt (-24.3m) to EBITDA (80.0m): -0.30 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.07 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (27.7m) vs 12m ago -0.04% < -2%
Gross Margin: 42.54% > 18% (prev 42.24%; Δ 0.30% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 142.1% > 50% (prev 147.2%; Δ -5.13% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.08k > 6 (EBIT TTM 66.1m / Interest Expense TTM 13.0k)
Altman Z'' 9.19
A: 0.41 (Total Current Assets 237.2m - Total Current Liabilities 77.2m) / Total Assets 394.4m
B: 0.70 (Retained Earnings 275.7m / Total Assets 394.4m)
C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 66.1m / Avg Total Assets 344.6m)
D: 2.82 (Book Value of Equity 287.5m / Total Liabilities 101.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 9.19 = AAA
Beneish M -2.56
DSRI: 1.42 (Receivables 53.5m/33.4m, Revenue 489.7m/434.1m)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 42.24% / 42.54%)
AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.27)
SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 489.7m / 434.1m)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 53.0m - CFO 71.1m) / TA 394.4m)
Beneish M = -2.56 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of XPEL shares?

As of August 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 44.90 with a total of 181,098 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.49%, over one month by -10.29%, over three months by -6.30% and over the past year by +35.12%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 42.70 (which is 4.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is XPEL a buy, sell or hold?

Xpel has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPEL.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the XPEL price?
Analysts Target Price 51.7 15.1%
Xpel (XPEL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.22b (1.22b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.2304
P/S = 2.497
P/B = 4.2533
Revenue TTM = 489.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 66.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 80.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.1m USD (estimated: total debt 20.8m - short term 5.74m)
Short Term Debt = 5.74m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 20.8m already included)
Net Debt = -24.3m USD (calculated: Debt 20.8m - CCE 45.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.20b USD (1.22b + Debt 20.8m - CCE 45.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.08k (Ebit TTM 66.1m / Interest Expense TTM 13.0k)
EV/FCF = 20.72x (Enterprise Value 1.20b / FCF TTM 57.8m)
FCF Yield = 4.83% (FCF TTM 57.8m / Enterprise Value 1.20b)
FCF Margin = 11.81% (FCF TTM 57.8m / Revenue TTM 489.7m)
Net Margin = 10.82% (Net Income TTM 53.0m / Revenue TTM 489.7m)
Gross Margin = 42.54% ((Revenue TTM 489.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 281.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.65% (prev 41.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.04 (Enterprise Value 1.20b / Total Assets 394.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.06% (Interest Expense 13.0k / Debt 20.8m)
Taxrate = 19.01% (12.6m / 66.1m)
NOPAT = 53.5m (EBIT 66.1m * (1 - 19.01%))
Current Ratio = 3.07 (Total Current Assets 237.2m / Total Current Liabilities 77.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.07 (Debt 20.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 287.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.30 (Net Debt -24.3m / EBITDA 80.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.42 (Net Debt -24.3m / FCF TTM 57.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 273.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.37% (Net Income 53.0m / Total Assets 394.4m)
RoE = 19.39% (Net Income TTM 53.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 273.2m)
RoCE = 22.92% (EBIT 66.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 273.2m + L.T.Debt 15.1m))
RoIC = 17.93% (NOPAT 53.5m / Invested Capital 298.5m)
WACC = 12.07% (E(1.22b)/V(1.24b) * Re(12.27%) + D(20.8m)/V(1.24b) * Rd(0.06%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 12.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.91 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.52% ; FCFF base≈55.2m ; Y1≈62.2m ; Y5≈87.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 29.91 (EV 800.2m - Net Debt -24.3m = Equity 824.5m / Shares 27.6m; r=12.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 13.08% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -16.39 | EPS CAGR: -0.87% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.86 | Revenue CAGR: 11.23% | SUE: 1.18 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=+5.84% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=-3.28% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=-5.18% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+9.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.74 | Chg30d=-2.49% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+36.3% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=4, down=5)