XPEL Stock Analysis: Xpel | NASDAQ
Auto Parts | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.223m USD | 12M Return: 35.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.86M
EPS Trend: -16.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
XPEL, Inc. (NASDAQ: XPEL) is a manufacturer and distributor of protective films, coatings, and related services primarily serving the automotive aftermarket. Its product lineup includes automotive paint protection films (PPF), windshield protection, window films (for both automotive and architectural applications), ceramic coatings, after-care products, and installation tools and accessories. A notable differentiator in its business model is its proprietary DAP (Design Access Program) software, which provides pre-cut patterns matched to specific vehicle makes and models, supporting both DIY installers and professional shops.
The company sells through a multi-channel distribution network spanning independent installers, franchised dealers, new car dealerships, third-party distributors, automotive OEMs, company-owned installation centers, and e-commerce. XPEL was founded in 1997, is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas, and operates internationally across North America, the Asia Pacific (including China and India), the European Union, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. As a small-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company sits within the broader automotive parts and equipment industry, where PPF and window tint demand is tied to vehicle parc size, consumer spending on vehicle personalization, and the adoption of protective coatings by dealerships and OEMs.
- US new vehicle sales recovery boosts PPF volume
- International expansion drives revenue in China and Europe
- Competition from 3M pressures pricing and margins
| Net Income: 53.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.66% < 20% (prev 31.49%; Δ 1.17% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 71.1m > Net Income 53.0m |
| Net Debt (-24.3m) to EBITDA (80.0m): -0.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (27.7m) vs 12m ago -0.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.54% > 18% (prev 42.24%; Δ 0.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 142.1% > 50% (prev 147.2%; Δ -5.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.08k > 6 (EBIT TTM 66.1m / Interest Expense TTM 13.0k) |
| A: 0.41 (Total Current Assets 237.2m - Total Current Liabilities 77.2m) / Total Assets 394.4m |
| B: 0.70 (Retained Earnings 275.7m / Total Assets 394.4m) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 66.1m / Avg Total Assets 344.6m) |
| D: 2.82 (Book Value of Equity 287.5m / Total Liabilities 101.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 9.19 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.42 (Receivables 53.5m/33.4m, Revenue 489.7m/434.1m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 42.24% / 42.54%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 489.7m / 434.1m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 53.0m - CFO 71.1m) / TA 394.4m) |
| Beneish M = -2.56 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 44.90 with a total of 181,098 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.49%, over one month by -10.29%, over three months by -6.30% and over the past year by +35.12%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 42.70 (which is 4.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Xpel has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy XPEL.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 51.7 | 15.1% |
P/E Trailing = 23.2304
P/S = 2.497
P/B = 4.2533
Revenue TTM = 489.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 66.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 80.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.1m USD (estimated: total debt 20.8m - short term 5.74m)
Short Term Debt = 5.74m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 20.8m already included)
Net Debt = -24.3m USD (calculated: Debt 20.8m - CCE 45.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.20b USD (1.22b + Debt 20.8m - CCE 45.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.08k (Ebit TTM 66.1m / Interest Expense TTM 13.0k)
EV/FCF = 20.72x (Enterprise Value 1.20b / FCF TTM 57.8m)
FCF Yield = 4.83% (FCF TTM 57.8m / Enterprise Value 1.20b)
FCF Margin = 11.81% (FCF TTM 57.8m / Revenue TTM 489.7m)
Net Margin = 10.82% (Net Income TTM 53.0m / Revenue TTM 489.7m)
Gross Margin = 42.54% ((Revenue TTM 489.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 281.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.65% (prev 41.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.04 (Enterprise Value 1.20b / Total Assets 394.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.06% (Interest Expense 13.0k / Debt 20.8m)
Taxrate = 19.01% (12.6m / 66.1m)
NOPAT = 53.5m (EBIT 66.1m * (1 - 19.01%))
Current Ratio = 3.07 (Total Current Assets 237.2m / Total Current Liabilities 77.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.07 (Debt 20.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 287.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.30 (Net Debt -24.3m / EBITDA 80.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.42 (Net Debt -24.3m / FCF TTM 57.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 273.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.37% (Net Income 53.0m / Total Assets 394.4m)
RoE = 19.39% (Net Income TTM 53.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 273.2m)
RoCE = 22.92% (EBIT 66.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 273.2m + L.T.Debt 15.1m))
RoIC = 17.93% (NOPAT 53.5m / Invested Capital 298.5m)
WACC = 12.07% (E(1.22b)/V(1.24b) * Re(12.27%) + D(20.8m)/V(1.24b) * Rd(0.06%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 12.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.91 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.52% ; FCFF base≈55.2m ; Y1≈62.2m ; Y5≈87.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 29.91 (EV 800.2m - Net Debt -24.3m = Equity 824.5m / Shares 27.6m; r=12.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 13.08% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -16.39 | EPS CAGR: -0.87% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.86 | Revenue CAGR: 11.23% | SUE: 1.18 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=+5.84% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=-3.28% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=-5.18% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+9.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.74 | Chg30d=-2.49% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+36.3% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=4, down=5)