(AA) Alcoa - Overview

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Aluminum | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 19.333m USD | Total Return: 195.3% in 12m

Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Energy
Total Rating 68
Safety 76
Buy Signal 0.05
Aluminum
Industry Rotation: +17.8
Market Cap: 19.3B
Avg Turnover: 365M USD
ATR: 5.23%
Peers RS (IBD): 89.7
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility50.0%
Rel. Tail Risk-4.52%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio2.18
Alpha156.19
Character TTM
Beta1.953
Beta Downside1.613
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD52.25%
CAGR/Max DD0.45
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.79, "2021-06": 1.49, "2021-09": 2.05, "2021-12": 2.5, "2022-03": 3.06, "2022-06": 2.67, "2022-09": -0.33, "2022-12": -0.7, "2023-03": -0.23, "2023-06": -0.35, "2023-09": -1.14, "2023-12": -0.56, "2024-03": -0.81, "2024-06": 0.16, "2024-09": 0.57, "2024-12": 1.04, "2025-03": 2.15, "2025-06": 0.39, "2025-09": -0.02, "2025-12": 1.26,
EPS CAGR: -21.07%
EPS Trend: 6.6%
Last SUE: 0.78
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of AA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 2910, 2021-06: 2903, 2021-09: 3191, 2021-12: 3433, 2022-03: 3403, 2022-06: 3773, 2022-09: 2886, 2022-12: 2700, 2023-03: 2736, 2023-06: 2720, 2023-09: 2654, 2023-12: 2596, 2024-03: 2652, 2024-06: 2831, 2024-09: 2830, 2024-12: 3977, 2025-03: 3369, 2025-06: 3018, 2025-09: 2995, 2025-12: 3449,
Rev. CAGR: 0.36%
Rev. Trend: 14.3%
Last SUE: 1.77
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Altman Z'' 0.62 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Volatile

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: AA Alcoa

Alcoa Corporation (AA) operates globally in bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum production. The company also generates and sells electricity.

Alcoas business model spans the aluminum value chain, from raw material extraction (bauxite) to refined products (alumina and aluminum). The company supplies aluminum to industries such as transportation, construction, and packaging. The aluminum sector is cyclical, influenced by global economic growth and commodity prices.

The companys operations are divided into two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. Alcoa processes bauxite into alumina, selling it to smelters and industrial chemical producers. It also produces primary aluminum in various forms. Energy generation supports its operations and provides wholesale electricity sales.

For more detailed financial analysis and historical performance, consider exploring ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Global aluminum prices dictate revenue and profitability
  • Bauxite and alumina production costs impact margins
  • Energy prices influence smelting operational expenses
  • Industrial demand for aluminum drives sales volume
  • Regulatory environmental compliance poses financial risks
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.20 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 13.28% < 20% (prev 12.36%; Δ 0.92% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.19b > Net Income 1.15b
Net Debt (842.0m) to EBITDA (1.86b): 0.45 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (263.3m) vs 12m ago 1.91% < -2%
Gross Margin: 14.22% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1.41k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 84.76% > 50% (prev 87.39%; Δ -2.63% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.85 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.86b / Interest Expense TTM 158.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.62
A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 5.47b - Total Current Liabilities 3.77b) / Total Assets 16.21b
B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -258.0m / Total Assets 16.21b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.24b / Avg Total Assets 15.14b)
D: -0.54 (Book Value of Equity -5.44b / Total Liabilities 10.00b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.62 = B
Beneish M -4.00
DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 1.27b/1.24b, Revenue 12.83b/12.29b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 14.22% / 14.26%)
AQI: -3.08 (AQ_t -0.60 / AQ_t-1 0.20)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 12.83b / 12.29b)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 1.15b - CFO 1.19b) / TA 16.21b)
Beneish M-Score: -5.43 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of AA shares? As of April 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 73.03 with a total of 3,184,757 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.84%, over one month by +10.77%, over three months by +11.39% and over the past year by +195.28%.
Is AA a buy, sell or hold? Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AA price?
Analysts Target Price 70.9 -2.9%
Alcoa (AA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 11 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.4283
P/E Forward = 23.2558
P/S = 1.5068
P/B = 3.085
P/EG = 8.3617
Revenue TTM = 12.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.24b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.86b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.44b USD (corrected: LT Debt 2.44b + ST Debt 1.00m)
Net Debt = 842.0m USD (recalculated: Debt 2.44b - CCE 1.60b)
Enterprise Value = 20.18b USD (19.33b + Debt 2.44b - CCE 1.60b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.85 (Ebit TTM 1.24b / Interest Expense TTM 158.0m)
EV/FCF = 35.58x (Enterprise Value 20.18b / FCF TTM 567.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.81% (FCF TTM 567.0m / Enterprise Value 20.18b)
FCF Margin = 4.42% (FCF TTM 567.0m / Revenue TTM 12.83b)
Net Margin = 8.95% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 12.83b)
Gross Margin = 14.22% ((Revenue TTM 12.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.25% (prev 4.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 20.18b / Total Assets 16.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.66% (Interest Expense 16.0m / Debt 2.44b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 980.4m (EBIT 1.24b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 5.47b / Total Current Liabilities 3.77b)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 2.44b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.45 (Net Debt 842.0m / EBITDA 1.86b)
Debt / FCF = 1.49 (Net Debt 842.0m / FCF TTM 567.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.58% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 16.21b)
RoE = 18.80% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.11b)
RoCE = 14.52% (EBIT 1.24b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.11b + L.T.Debt 2.44b))
RoIC = 11.29% (NOPAT 980.4m / Invested Capital 8.68b)
WACC = 11.47% (E(19.33b)/V(21.77b) * Re(12.85%) + D(2.44b)/V(21.77b) * Rd(0.66%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 21.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 56.75% ; FCFF base≈357.0m ; Y1≈234.4m ; Y5≈107.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.87 (EV 1.33b - Net Debt 842.0m = Equity 493.0m / Shares 263.9m; r=11.47% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 6.63 | EPS CAGR: -21.07% | SUE: 0.78 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 14.35 | Revenue CAGR: 0.36% | SUE: 1.77 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.77 | Chg7d=+0.101 | Chg30d=+0.545 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.05 | Chg7d=+0.241 | Chg30d=+1.046 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+60.4% | Growth Revenue=+12.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.18 | Chg7d=+0.475 | Chg30d=+0.854 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+2.2% | Growth Revenue=+0.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (4 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = 6.8% (Discount Rate 12.8% - Earnings Yield 6.1%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +16.8% (Analyst 23.5% - Implied 6.8%)
External Resources
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