AA Stock Analysis: Alcoa | NYSE
Aluminum | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 11.264m USD | 12M Return: 21.4% | US0138721065 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 164M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 88.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) is a vertically integrated aluminum company engaged across the full value chain, from bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminum smelting and energy generation. The company operates globally, with activities in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and the United States, and reports through two core segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It supplies commodity-grade and value-add aluminum ingot, powder, and scrap to customers in transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and broader industrial markets, and also operates an energy business selling wholesale electricity to traders, industrial consumers, and utilities. Originally founded in 1886 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company was reorganized into its current corporate form in 2016.
As a GICS-classified Materials company within the Aluminum sub-industry, Alcoa sits at the upstream end of the light-metals supply chain, making its earnings sensitive to global alumina and aluminum prices, bauxite ore grades, and electricity costs-a meaningful exposure given that aluminum smelting is one of the most energy-intensive industrial processes. Its integrated model, spanning mining, refining, smelting, and power generation, allows the company to manage input costs internally, which is uncommon among peers focused on a single segment of the value chain.
- LME aluminum prices swing on China supply discipline
- Alumina segment margins track bauxite costs and energy
- European carbon regulations force smelter curtailments
| Net Income: 1.28b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.08% < 20% (prev 16.12%; Δ -1.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.05b > Net Income 1.28b |
| Net Debt (1.13b) to EBITDA (1.99b): 0.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (263.8m) vs 12m ago 1.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.79% > 18% (prev 20.44%; Δ -1.65% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.44% > 50% (prev 88.02%; Δ -2.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 120.0m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 5.88b - Total Current Liabilities 3.83b) / Total Assets 16.9b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 508.0m / Total Assets 16.9b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Avg Total Assets 15.9b) |
| D: 0.78 (Book Value of Equity 7.37b / Total Liabilities 9.42b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.28 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.38 (Receivables 1.71b/1.20b, Revenue 13.6b/13.2b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 20.44% / 18.79%) |
| AQI: 1.24 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 13.6b / 13.2b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1.28b - CFO 1.05b) / TA 16.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.47 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.95 with a total of 3,689,735 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.10%, over one month by -17.83%, over three months by -13.66% and over the past year by +21.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.70 (which is 5.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 63.1 | 50.3% |
P/E Trailing = 9.1588
P/E Forward = 8.0386
P/S = 0.828
P/B = 1.5763
P/EG = 8.3617
Revenue TTM = 13.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.34b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.99b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 259.0m
Net Debt = 1.13b USD (calculated: Debt 2.48b - CCE 1.35b)
Enterprise Value = 12.4b USD (11.3b + Debt 2.48b - CCE 1.35b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.13 (Ebit TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 120.0m)
EV/FCF = 35.21x (Enterprise Value 12.4b / FCF TTM 352.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.84% (FCF TTM 352.0m / Enterprise Value 12.4b)
FCF Margin = 2.59% (FCF TTM 352.0m / Revenue TTM 13.6b)
Net Margin = 9.39% (Net Income TTM 1.28b / Revenue TTM 13.6b)
Gross Margin = 18.79% ((Revenue TTM 13.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.0b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.19% (prev 21.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 12.4b / Total Assets 16.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.83% (Interest Expense 120.0m / Debt 2.48b)
Taxrate = 15.15% (73.0m / 482.0m)
NOPAT = 1.13b (EBIT 1.34b * (1 - 15.15%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 5.88b / Total Current Liabilities 3.83b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 2.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.57 (Net Debt 1.13b / EBITDA 1.99b)
Debt / FCF = 3.22 (Net Debt 1.13b / FCF TTM 352.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.02% (Net Income 1.28b / Total Assets 16.9b)
RoE = 19.16% (Net Income TTM 1.28b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.66b)
RoCE = 15.03% (EBIT 1.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.66b + L.T.Debt 2.22b))
RoIC = 9.19% (NOPAT 1.13b / Invested Capital 12.3b)
WACC = 11.49% (E(11.3b)/V(13.7b) * Re(13.12%) + D(2.48b)/V(13.7b) * Rd(4.83%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 13.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 81.25 | Cagr: 18.72%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.35% ; FCFF base≈444.0m ; Y1≈389.4m ; Y5≈314.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.37 (EV 3.34b - Net Debt 1.13b = Equity 2.21b / Shares 263.9m; r=11.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.77 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.84 | Revenue CAGR: 10.40% | SUE: -1.25 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.44 | Chg30d=-7.81% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.45 | Chg30d=-0.76% | Revisions=-58% | GrowthEPS=+71.1% | GrowthRev=+15.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.67 | Chg30d=-2.22% | Revisions=-46% | GrowthEPS=-12.1% | GrowthRev=+2.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -68% (up=3, down=22)