(AA) Alcoa - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US0138721065

Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Energy

Aluminum
Market Cap in USD: 16,460m

IPO / Inception: 2016-11-01
12m vs SPY: 50.8%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -28.71%
EPS Trend: -5.7%

Last SUE: -2.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -3.57%
Rev. Trend: -9.9%

Last SUE: -0.74
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	1.27%
Yield on Cost 5y	1.67%
Yield CAGR 5y	41.42%
Payout Consistency	80.8%
Payout Ratio	11.2%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	49.6%
Value at Risk 5%th	78.8%
Relative Tail Risk	-3.52%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	1.33
Alpha	54.10
CAGR/Max DD	0.13

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.277
Beta	1.745
Beta Downside	1.754

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	58.24%
Mean DD	35.66%
Median DD	37.29%

Description: AA Alcoa January 06, 2026

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) is a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, primary aluminum, and electricity, operating across North America, South America, Europe, and Oceania. The firm’s operations span mining of bauxite ore, refining it into alumina, smelting alumina into aluminum ingots, and selling both primary metal and value-added cast products to end-users in transportation, construction, packaging, and industrial sectors.

The company reports two primary segments: Alumina, which supplies refined alumina to external smelters and industrial chemical customers via long-term contracts; and Aluminum, which manufactures primary alloy and value-add ingots, as well as generates wholesale electricity for industrial consumers and traders. Alcoa’s diversified geographic footprint includes assets in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and the United States.

Key recent metrics: 2023 net sales were approximately $15.5 billion, with aluminum production at 1.6 million metric tons and a segment operating cash flow margin of ~12%. Demand drivers include the global shift toward electric vehicles and renewable-energy infrastructure, which together account for roughly 30% of projected aluminum consumption growth through 2028. A material-price risk remains, as aluminum spot prices have fluctuated between $2,200 and $2,800 per metric ton over the past 12 months, influencing both revenue and cost-pass-through potential.

For a deeper dive into AA’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, check out ValueRay’s research platform.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5

Net Income (1.15b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 795.8m TTM)

FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 5.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 14.31% (prev 12.90%; Δ 1.41pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.23b > Net Income 1.15b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (3.67b) to EBITDA (2.14b) ratio: 1.71 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.56 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (258.9m) change vs 12m ago 10.81% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 16.87% (prev 6.01%; Δ 10.86pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 86.95% (prev 75.02%; Δ 11.93pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 8.13 (EBITDA TTM 2.14b / Interest Expense TTM 187.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.78

(A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 5.28b - Total Current Liabilities 3.39b) / Total Assets 15.97b

(B) -0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -458.0m / Total Assets 15.97b

(D) -0.55 = Book Value of Equity -5.22b / Total Liabilities 9.54b

Total Rating: 0.78 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 71.18

1. Piotroski 7.50pt

2. FCF Yield 3.23%

3. FCF Margin 4.91%

4. Debt/Equity 0.81

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.71

6. ROIC - WACC (= 13.81)%

7. RoE 19.55%

8. Rev. Trend -9.92%

9. EPS Trend -5.73%

What is the price of AA shares?

As of January 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.67 with a total of 8,722,462 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.88%, over one month by +42.33%, over three months by +81.65% and over the past year by +82.37%.

Is AA a buy, sell or hold?

Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.

Strong Buy: 7
Buy: 2
Hold: 4
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AA price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	46.9	-28.6%
Analysts Target Price	46.9	-28.6%
ValueRay Target Price	78.4	19.4%

AA Fundamental Data Overview January 08, 2026

P/E Trailing = 13.9692
P/E Forward = 20.4918
P/S = 1.2791
P/B = 2.5076
P/EG = -0.29
Beta = 1.948
Revenue TTM = 13.26b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.52b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.58b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.67b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 20.13b USD (16.46b + Debt 5.16b - CCE 1.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.13 (Ebit TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 187.0m)
EV/FCF = 30.92x (Enterprise Value 20.13b / FCF TTM 651.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.23% (FCF TTM 651.0m / Enterprise Value 20.13b)
FCF Margin = 4.91% (FCF TTM 651.0m / Revenue TTM 13.26b)
Net Margin = 8.64% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 13.26b)
Gross Margin = 16.87% ((Revenue TTM 13.26b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.03b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 4.67% (prev 7.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 20.13b / Total Assets 15.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.64% (Interest Expense 33.0m / Debt 5.16b)
Taxrate = -30.54% (negative due to tax credits) (-51.0m / 167.0m)
NOPAT = 1.99b (EBIT 1.52b * (1 - -30.54%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.56 (Total Current Assets 5.28b / Total Current Liabilities 3.39b)
Debt / Equity = 0.81 (Debt 5.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.71 (Net Debt 3.67b / EBITDA 2.14b)
Debt / FCF = 5.64 (Net Debt 3.67b / FCF TTM 651.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.51% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 15.97b)
RoE = 19.55% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.86b)
RoCE = 18.02% (EBIT 1.52b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.86b + L.T.Debt 2.58b))
RoIC = 23.41% (NOPAT 1.99b / Invested Capital 8.48b)
WACC = 9.60% (E(16.46b)/V(21.62b) * Re(12.35%) + D(5.16b)/V(21.62b) * Rd(0.64%) * (1-Tc(-0.31)))
Discount Rate = 12.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 20.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 63.33% ; FCFF base≈651.0m ; Y1≈427.3m ; Y5≈195.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.99b - Net Debt 3.67b = -683.2m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -5.73 | EPS CAGR: -28.71% | SUE: -2.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -9.92 | Revenue CAGR: -3.57% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=+0.317 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.14 | Chg30d=+0.631 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+17.8% | Growth Revenue=+6.5%

Additional Sources for AA Stock

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