AA Stock Analysis: Alcoa | NYSE
Aluminum | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 14.276m USD | 12M Return: 78.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 363M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 84.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum producer operating across the full value chain-from bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminum smelting, casting, and energy generation. The company is organized into two reporting segments: Alumina and Aluminum, and maintains operations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and other international markets. Its end customers serve the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and broader industrial sectors, while a portion of its output is sold under supply contracts to third-party processors and chemical producers. Alcoa also generates and sells electricity in wholesale markets, making energy both an operational input and a commercial product.
Founded in 1886 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation before adopting its current name in May 2016, with its NYSE listing following in November 2016. As a member of the GICS Materials sector and Aluminum sub-industry, Alcoa sits within a highly cyclical commodity industry whose earnings are closely tied to global aluminum prices, energy costs, and bauxite supply dynamics.
- Aluminum and alumina prices rally on tightening global supply
- Smelter curtailments and energy costs pressure Aluminum segment margins
- Bauxite mining output supports low-cost alumina production
| Net Income: 1.03b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.63% < 20% (prev 16.67%; Δ -2.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 931.0m > Net Income 1.03b |
| Net Debt (1.32b) to EBITDA (1.67b): 0.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (265.7m) vs 12m ago 2.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.20% > 18% (prev 19.54%; Δ -4.34% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 81.09% > 50% (prev 89.25%; Δ -8.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 140.0m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 5.68b - Total Current Liabilities 3.83b) / Total Assets 16.6b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 127.0m / Total Assets 16.6b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 1.03b / Avg Total Assets 15.6b) |
| D: 0.70 (Book Value of Equity 6.83b / Total Liabilities 9.75b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.94 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 1.40b/1.35b, Revenue 12.7b/13.0b) |
| GMI: 1.29 (GM 19.54% / 15.20%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 12.7b / 13.0b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1.03b - CFO 931.0m) / TA 16.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.58 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 52.14 with a total of 5,805,990 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.34%, over one month by -32.95%, over three months by -21.27% and over the past year by +78.34%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 47.40 (which is 9.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.8 | 54.9% |
P/E Trailing = 13.8718
P/E Forward = 11.0497
P/S = 1.1281
P/B = 2.0915
P/EG = 8.3617
Revenue TTM = 12.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.03b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.67b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 259.0m
Net Debt = 1.32b USD (calculated: Debt 2.70b - CCE 1.38b)
Enterprise Value = 15.6b USD (14.3b + Debt 2.70b - CCE 1.38b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.39 (Ebit TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 140.0m)
EV/FCF = 54.36x (Enterprise Value 15.6b / FCF TTM 287.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.84% (FCF TTM 287.0m / Enterprise Value 15.6b)
FCF Margin = 2.27% (FCF TTM 287.0m / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Net Margin = 8.17% (Net Income TTM 1.03b / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Gross Margin = 15.20% ((Revenue TTM 12.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.33% (prev 16.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 15.6b / Total Assets 16.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.18% (Interest Expense 140.0m / Debt 2.70b)
Taxrate = 16.43% (82.0m / 499.0m)
NOPAT = 864.9m (EBIT 1.03b * (1 - 16.43%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 5.68b / Total Current Liabilities 3.83b)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 2.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.79 (Net Debt 1.32b / EBITDA 1.67b)
Debt / FCF = 4.61 (Net Debt 1.32b / FCF TTM 287.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.63% (Net Income 1.03b / Total Assets 16.6b)
RoE = 16.27% (Net Income TTM 1.03b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.36b)
RoCE = 11.77% (EBIT 1.03b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.36b + L.T.Debt 2.44b))
RoIC = 7.10% (NOPAT 864.9m / Invested Capital 12.2b)
WACC = 11.72% (E(14.3b)/V(17.0b) * Re(13.12%) + D(2.70b)/V(17.0b) * Rd(5.18%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 13.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 19.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 61.63% ; FCFF base≈311.4m ; Y1≈273.1m ; Y5≈220.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 3.65 (EV 2.29b - Net Debt 1.32b = Equity 962.0m / Shares 263.9m; r=11.72% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.81 | Revenue CAGR: 9.32% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.26 | Chg30d=+14.04% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.80 | Chg30d=+8.75% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+106.8% | GrowthRev=+17.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.54 | Chg30d=+11.94% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=-3.3% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +43%