(AA) Alcoa - Overview

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Aluminum | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 18.035m USD | Total Return: 115% in 12m

Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Electricity
Total Rating 54
Safety 39
Buy Signal -0.63
Aluminum
Industry Rotation: -28.0
Market Cap: 18.0B
Avg Turnover: 247M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility53.8%
VaR 5th Pctl9.34%
VaR vs Median5.27%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.72
Rel. Str. IBD91.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group77
Character TTM
Beta1.817
Beta Downside1.656
Hurst Exponent0.449
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD52.25%
CAGR/Max DD0.41
CAGR/Mean DD1.14
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.79, "2021-06": 1.49, "2021-09": 2.05, "2021-12": 2.5, "2022-03": 3.06, "2022-06": 2.67, "2022-09": -0.33, "2022-12": -0.7, "2023-03": -0.23, "2023-06": -0.35, "2023-09": -1.14, "2023-12": -0.56, "2024-03": -0.81, "2024-06": 0.16, "2024-09": 0.57, "2024-12": 1.04, "2025-03": 2.15, "2025-06": 0.39, "2025-09": -0.02, "2025-12": 1.26, "2026-03": 1.4,
EPS CAGR: -15.82%
EPS Trend: 40.3%
Last SUE: 0.70
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of AA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 2910, 2021-06: 2903, 2021-09: 3191, 2021-12: 3433, 2022-03: 3403, 2022-06: 3773, 2022-09: 2886, 2022-12: 2700, 2023-03: 2736, 2023-06: 2720, 2023-09: 2654, 2023-12: 2596, 2024-03: 2652, 2024-06: 2831, 2024-09: 2830, 2024-12: 3977, 2025-03: 3369, 2025-06: 3018, 2025-09: 2995, 2025-12: 3449, 2026-03: 3193,
Rev. CAGR: -4.35%
Rev. Trend: 30.7%
Last SUE: -0.60
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' 0.71 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Choppy

Tailwinds

Leader, Confidence

Description: AA Alcoa

Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, the company operates across two primary segments, Alumina and Aluminum, maintaining assets in major mining and smelting hubs including Australia, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Its business model covers the entire upstream value chain, from extracting raw ore to generating electricity for wholesale markets and industrial smelting operations.

The aluminum industry is highly capital-intensive and sensitive to global energy prices, as electricity typically accounts for approximately one-third of total smelting costs. Alcoa serves diverse end-markets such as transportation, construction, and packaging, providing both commodity-grade ingots and specialized value-add products. Investors can analyze Alcoas valuation metrics and historical performance further on ValueRay.

As a global supplier, Alcoas revenue is influenced by the London Metal Exchange (LME) pricing for primary aluminum and the Alumina Price Index (API). The company’s integrated energy assets provide a strategic hedge against volatile power costs, a critical factor for maintaining margins in the competitive metals and mining sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Global aluminum spot prices dictate primary smelting revenue and profit margins
  • Bauxite and alumina supply chain costs impact upstream production efficiency
  • Energy price volatility affects smelting margins in European and Australian operations
  • Global construction and transportation demand cycles drive value-add product sales
  • Environmental regulations and carbon taxes influence long-term industrial smelting capacity
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 1.02b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.66 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 14.63% < 20% (prev 16.67%; Δ -2.03% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 931.0m > Net Income 1.02b
Net Debt (1.06b) to EBITDA (1.73b): 0.62 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.48 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (265.7m) vs 12m ago 2.58% < -2%
Gross Margin: 12.87% > 18% (prev 0.20%; Δ 1.27k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 81.09% > 50% (prev 89.25%; Δ -8.16% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.79 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.73b / Interest Expense TTM 140.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.71
A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 5.68b - Total Current Liabilities 3.83b) / Total Assets 16.64b
B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 127.0m / Total Assets 16.64b)
C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 1.09b / Avg Total Assets 15.61b)
D: -0.49 (Book Value of Equity -4.75b / Total Liabilities 9.75b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.71 = B
Beneish M -2.36
DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 1.40b/1.35b, Revenue 12.65b/13.01b)
GMI: 1.52 (GM 12.87% / 19.54%)
AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.20)
SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 12.65b / 13.01b)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 1.02b - CFO 931.0m) / TA 16.64b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of AA shares? As of May 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 62.53 with a total of 3,971,526 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.03%, over one month by -4.71%, over three months by +8.98% and over the past year by +115.00%.
Is AA a buy, sell or hold? Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AA price?
Analysts Target Price 75.3 20.3%
Alcoa (AA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 17.5238
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 1.3625
P/B = 2.4425
P/EG = 8.3617
Revenue TTM = 12.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.09b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.73b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.44b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.06b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.10b USD (18.04b + Debt 2.44b - CCE 1.38b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.79 (Ebit TTM 1.09b / Interest Expense TTM 140.0m)
EV/FCF = 66.55x (Enterprise Value 19.10b / FCF TTM 287.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.50% (FCF TTM 287.0m / Enterprise Value 19.10b)
FCF Margin = 2.27% (FCF TTM 287.0m / Revenue TTM 12.65b)
Net Margin = 8.10% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 12.65b)
Gross Margin = 12.87% ((Revenue TTM 12.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.03b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.33% (prev 17.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 19.10b / Total Assets 16.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.43% (Interest Expense 35.0m / Debt 2.44b)
Taxrate = 16.43% (82.0m / 499.0m)
NOPAT = 910.9m (EBIT 1.09b * (1 - 16.43%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 5.68b / Total Current Liabilities 3.83b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 2.44b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.62 (Net Debt 1.06b / EBITDA 1.73b)
Debt / FCF = 3.71 (Net Debt 1.06b / FCF TTM 287.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.57% (Net Income 1.02b / Total Assets 16.64b)
RoE = 16.13% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.36b)
RoCE = 12.39% (EBIT 1.09b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.36b + L.T.Debt 2.44b))
RoIC = 10.25% (NOPAT 910.9m / Invested Capital 8.88b)
WACC = 11.04% (E(18.04b)/V(20.48b) * Re(12.37%) + D(2.44b)/V(20.48b) * Rd(1.43%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 12.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 19.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 58.27% ; FCFF base≈311.4m ; Y1≈204.4m ; Y5≈93.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.58 (EV 1.22b - Net Debt 1.06b = Equity 153.1m / Shares 263.9m; r=11.04% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 40.28 | EPS CAGR: -15.82% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 30.71 | Revenue CAGR: -4.35% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.22 | Chg30d=+32.95% | Revisions=+64% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.04 | Chg30d=+19.26% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.21 | Chg30d=+21.51% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+91.4% | GrowthRev=+15.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.70 | Chg30d=+14.13% | Revisions=+41% | GrowthEPS=-7.2% | GrowthRev=+1.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +64%