Overview Dividends

(AA) Alcoa - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US0138721065

Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Energy

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of AA over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-09": -1.17, "2020-12": 0.26, "2021-03": 0.79, "2021-06": 1.49, "2021-09": 2.05, "2021-12": 2.5, "2022-03": 3.06, "2022-06": 2.67, "2022-09": -0.33, "2022-12": -0.7, "2023-03": -0.23, "2023-06": -0.35, "2023-09": -1.14, "2023-12": -0.56, "2024-03": -0.81, "2024-06": 0.16, "2024-09": 0.57, "2024-12": 1.04, "2025-03": 2.15, "2025-06": 0.39, "2025-09": -0.02,
EPS Growth (3y CAGR): 36.85%
EPS Trend (3y Corr): 66.8%
Last SUE: -1.41σ
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of AA over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-09: 2389, 2020-12: 2425, 2021-03: 2910, 2021-06: 2903, 2021-09: 3191, 2021-12: 3433, 2022-03: 3403, 2022-06: 3773, 2022-09: 2886, 2022-12: 2700, 2023-03: 2736, 2023-06: 2720, 2023-09: 2654, 2023-12: 2596, 2024-03: 2652, 2024-06: 2831, 2024-09: 2830, 2024-12: 3977, 2025-03: 3274, 2025-06: 3018, 2025-09: 2995,
Revenue Growth (3y CAGR): 3.84%
Revenue Trend (3y Corr): 59.4%
Last SUE: -0.74σ
Qual. Beats: 0
Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility 52.6%
Value at Risk 5%th 84.0%
Relative Tail Risk -2.84%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -0.14
Alpha -36.49
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.223
Beta 1.628
Beta Downside 1.708
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 58.24%
Mean DD 35.45%
Median DD 37.29%

Description: AA Alcoa November 03, 2025

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) is a vertically integrated producer that mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts the alumina into primary aluminum, while also generating and selling wholesale electricity. The business is organized into two segments-Alumina and Aluminum-and serves end-markets such as transportation, construction, packaging, and industrial applications across North America, Europe, and Asia.

In 2023 Alcoa reported revenue of roughly $13.5 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 10 %, with the Alumina segment delivering a higher margin than primary aluminum due to lower energy intensity. The company’s cost structure is heavily influenced by global aluminum spot prices, which have risen 15 % year-to-date on the back of tightened supply and strong demand from China’s automotive and renewable-energy sectors. Additionally, Alcoa’s ownership of hydro-based power assets in Iceland and Norway provides a hedge against volatile electricity costs-a key driver for profitability in the energy-intensive smelting process.

For a data-driven view of how Alcoa’s integrated model stacks up against peers and to explore scenario-based forecasts, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth a deeper look.

AA Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD 9,465m
Sub-Industry Aluminum
IPO / Inception 2016-11-01
Return 12m vs S&P 500 -28.2%
Analyst Rating 4.07 of 5

AA Dividends

Metric Value
Dividend Yield 1.09%
Yield on Cost 5y 2.11%
Yield CAGR 5y 58.74%
Payout Consistency 80.8%
Payout Ratio 11.2%

AA Growth Ratios

Metric Value
CAGR 3y -7.82%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio -0.13
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio -0.22
Current Volume 4075.7k
Average Volume 6073.4k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5

Net Income (1.15b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 795.8m TTM)
FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 5.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 14.31% (prev 12.90%; Δ 1.41pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.23b > Net Income 1.15b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (3.67b) to EBITDA (2.14b) ratio: 1.71 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 1.56 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (258.9m) change vs 12m ago 10.81% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 16.87% (prev 6.01%; Δ 10.86pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 86.95% (prev 75.02%; Δ 11.93pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 8.13 (EBITDA TTM 2.14b / Interest Expense TTM 187.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.78

(A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 5.28b - Total Current Liabilities 3.39b) / Total Assets 15.97b
(B) -0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -458.0m / Total Assets 15.97b
(C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 1.52b / Avg Total Assets 15.26b
(D) -0.55 = Book Value of Equity -5.22b / Total Liabilities 9.54b
Total Rating: 0.78 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.87

1. Piotroski 7.50pt = 2.50
2. FCF Yield 4.96% = 2.48
3. FCF Margin 4.91% = 1.23
4. Debt/Equity 0.81 = 2.18
5. Debt/Ebitda 1.71 = 0.56
6. ROIC - WACC (= 15.34)% = 12.50
7. RoE 19.55% = 1.63
8. Rev. Trend 59.44% = 4.46
9. EPS Trend 66.78% = 3.34

What is the price of AA shares?

As of November 20, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 36.72 with a total of 4,075,664 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.27%, over one month by -5.50%, over three months by +23.35% and over the past year by -18.44%.

Is AA a buy, sell or hold?

Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
  • Strong Buy: 7
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AA price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 39.5 7.7%
Analysts Target Price 39.5 7.7%
ValueRay Target Price 39.8 8.5%

AA Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025

Market Cap USD = 9.47b (9.47b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 8.033
P/E Forward = 11.9332
P/S = 0.7356
P/B = 1.4603
P/EG = -0.29
Beta = 2.007
Revenue TTM = 13.26b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.52b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.58b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.67b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.14b USD (9.47b + Debt 5.16b - CCE 1.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.13 (Ebit TTM 1.52b / Interest Expense TTM 187.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.96% (FCF TTM 651.0m / Enterprise Value 13.14b)
FCF Margin = 4.91% (FCF TTM 651.0m / Revenue TTM 13.26b)
Net Margin = 8.64% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 13.26b)
Gross Margin = 16.87% ((Revenue TTM 13.26b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.03b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 4.67% (prev 7.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 13.14b / Total Assets 15.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.64% (Interest Expense 33.0m / Debt 5.16b)
Taxrate = -30.54% (negative due to tax credits) (-51.0m / 167.0m)
NOPAT = 1.99b (EBIT 1.52b * (1 - -30.54%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.56 (Total Current Assets 5.28b / Total Current Liabilities 3.39b)
Debt / Equity = 0.81 (Debt 5.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.71 (Net Debt 3.67b / EBITDA 2.14b)
Debt / FCF = 5.64 (Net Debt 3.67b / FCF TTM 651.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.18% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 15.97b)
RoE = 19.55% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.86b)
RoCE = 18.02% (EBIT 1.52b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.86b + L.T.Debt 2.58b))
RoIC = 23.41% (NOPAT 1.99b / Invested Capital 8.48b)
WACC = 8.08% (E(9.47b)/V(14.62b) * Re(12.02%) + D(5.16b)/V(14.62b) * Rd(0.64%) * (1-Tc(-0.31)))
Discount Rate = 12.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 20.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 54.87% ; FCFE base≈651.0m ; Y1≈427.4m ; Y5≈195.5m
Fair Price DCF = 8.90 (DCF Value 2.31b / Shares Outstanding 259.0m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 66.78 | EPS CAGR: 36.85% | SUE: -1.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 59.44 | Revenue CAGR: 3.84% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0

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