AA Stock Analysis: Alcoa | NYSE
Aluminum | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.184m USD | 12M Return: 46% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 283M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 88.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum producer operating across the full value chain-from bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminum smelting, casting, and energy generation. The company is organized into two reporting segments: Alumina and Aluminum, and maintains operations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and other international markets. Its end customers serve the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and broader industrial sectors, while a portion of its output is sold under supply contracts to third-party processors and chemical producers. Alcoa also generates and sells electricity in wholesale markets, making energy both an operational input and a commercial product.
Founded in 1886 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation before adopting its current name in May 2016, with its NYSE listing following in November 2016. As a member of the GICS Materials sector and Aluminum sub-industry, Alcoa sits within a highly cyclical commodity industry whose earnings are closely tied to global aluminum prices, energy costs, and bauxite supply dynamics.
- Aluminum and alumina prices rally on tightening global supply
- Smelter curtailments and energy costs pressure Aluminum segment margins
- Bauxite mining output supports low-cost alumina production
| Net Income: 1.28b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.08% < 20% (prev 16.12%; Δ -1.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.05b > Net Income 1.28b |
| Net Debt (1.35b) to EBITDA (1.99b): 0.68 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (263.8m) vs 12m ago 1.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.79% > 18% (prev 20.44%; Δ -1.65% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 85.44% > 50% (prev 88.02%; Δ -2.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 120.0m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 5.88b - Total Current Liabilities 3.83b) / Total Assets 16.9b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 508.0m / Total Assets 16.9b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Avg Total Assets 15.9b) |
| D: 0.78 (Book Value of Equity 7.37b / Total Liabilities 9.42b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.28 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.38 (Receivables 1.71b/1.20b, Revenue 13.6b/13.2b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 20.44% / 18.79%) |
| AQI: 1.24 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 13.6b / 13.2b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1.28b - CFO 1.05b) / TA 16.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.47 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 44.36 with a total of 5,508,646 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.02%, over one month by -17.04%, over three months by -29.66% and over the past year by +45.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 41.00 (which is 7.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 63 | 42% |
P/E Trailing = 9.1975
P/E Forward = 8.7951
P/S = 0.8782
P/B = 1.6209
P/EG = 8.3617
Revenue TTM = 13.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.34b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.99b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.70b USD (corrected: LT Debt 2.44b + ST Debt 1.00m) + Leases 259.0m
Net Debt = 1.35b USD (calculated: Debt 2.70b - CCE 1.35b)
Enterprise Value = 13.5b USD (12.2b + Debt 2.70b - CCE 1.35b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.13 (Ebit TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 120.0m)
EV/FCF = 38.44x (Enterprise Value 13.5b / FCF TTM 352.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.60% (FCF TTM 352.0m / Enterprise Value 13.5b)
FCF Margin = 2.59% (FCF TTM 352.0m / Revenue TTM 13.6b)
Net Margin = 9.39% (Net Income TTM 1.28b / Revenue TTM 13.6b)
Gross Margin = 18.79% ((Revenue TTM 13.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.0b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.19% (prev 21.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 13.5b / Total Assets 16.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.45% (Interest Expense 120.0m / Debt 2.70b)
Taxrate = 15.15% (73.0m / 482.0m)
NOPAT = 1.13b (EBIT 1.34b * (1 - 15.15%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 5.88b / Total Current Liabilities 3.83b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 2.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.68 (Net Debt 1.35b / EBITDA 1.99b)
Debt / FCF = 3.82 (Net Debt 1.35b / FCF TTM 352.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.02% (Net Income 1.28b / Total Assets 16.9b)
RoE = 19.16% (Net Income TTM 1.28b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.66b)
RoCE = 14.68% (EBIT 1.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.66b + L.T.Debt 2.44b))
RoIC = 9.19% (NOPAT 1.13b / Invested Capital 12.3b)
WACC = 11.39% (E(12.2b)/V(14.9b) * Re(13.08%) + D(2.70b)/V(14.9b) * Rd(4.45%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 13.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.15 | Cagr: 19.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.65% ; FCFF base≈444.0m ; Y1≈389.4m ; Y5≈314.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.69 (EV 3.37b - Net Debt 1.35b = Equity 2.03b / Shares 263.9m; r=11.39% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.77 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.84 | Revenue CAGR: 10.40% | SUE: -1.25 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.66 | Chg30d=-25.02% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.65 | Chg30d=-13.34% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+76.3% | GrowthRev=+15.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.93 | Chg30d=-18.71% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=-10.8% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +14% (up=11, down=8)