(AA) Alcoa - Ratings and Ratios
Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Electricity
AA EPS (Earnings per Share)
AA Revenue
Description: AA Alcoa
Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) is a global aluminum producer with a diverse portfolio of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation businesses across multiple countries. The companys operations are segmented into Alumina and Aluminum, catering to various industries such as transportation, construction, packaging, and industrial markets. With a history dating back to 1886, Alcoa has established itself as a significant player in the aluminum industry.
From a financial perspective, Alcoas market capitalization stands at approximately $7.85 billion, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.96%, indicating a relatively healthy profitability. The companys price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.27, while its forward P/E is 9.75, suggesting potential for future earnings growth. To further analyze Alcoas performance, key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth, operating margins, and debt-to-equity ratio can be examined. For instance, Alcoas revenue growth has been driven by its diversified portfolio and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the companys operating margins have been influenced by factors such as aluminum prices, energy costs, and production efficiency.
Some key metrics to monitor Alcoas performance include its alumina and aluminum production volumes, as well as its energy generation and sales. The companys ability to manage costs, optimize production, and navigate market fluctuations will be crucial in driving its future success. Furthermore, Alcoas commitment to sustainability and environmental stewardship can impact its long-term viability and attractiveness to investors. By analyzing these factors, investors can gain a more comprehensive understanding of Alcoas prospects and make informed decisions.
AA Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 8,360m |
| Sub-Industry | Aluminum |
| IPO / Inception | 2016-11-01 |
AA Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -33.1% |
| Fundamental | 63.1% |
| Dividend Rating | 47.7% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -17.4% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.07 of 5 |
AA Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 1.22% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.40% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 41.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 9.6% |
AA Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 64% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -73.8% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -13.5% |
| CAGR 5y | -4.78% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y | -0.08 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y | -0.13 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.07 |
| Alpha | 0.00 |
| Beta | 0.958 |
| Volatility | 45.33% |
| Current Volume | 6699.2k |
| Average Volume 20d | 5865.5k |
| Stop Loss | 31.3 (-4.7%) |
| Signal | -0.65 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income (1.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 785.9m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.96pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 16.24% (prev 16.18%; Δ 0.05pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.12b > Net Income 1.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.14b) to EBITDA (2.17b) ratio: 0.52 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (260.3m) change vs 12m ago 43.84% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 18.70% (prev 3.05%; Δ 15.65pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 89.42% (prev 75.02%; Δ 14.40pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.82 (EBITDA TTM 2.17b / Interest Expense TTM 198.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.85
| (A) 0.14 = (Total Current Assets 5.40b - Total Current Liabilities 3.27b) / Total Assets 14.99b |
| (B) -0.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -664.0m / Total Assets 14.99b |
| (C) 0.11 = EBIT TTM 1.55b / Avg Total Assets 14.65b |
| (D) -0.62 = Book Value of Equity -5.42b / Total Liabilities 8.76b |
| Total Rating: 0.85 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.13
| 1. Piotroski 8.0pt = 3.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.13% = 3.06 |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.44% = 1.11 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.43 = 2.41 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.22 = 1.43 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -5.74)% = -7.18 |
| 7. RoE 17.96% = 1.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 55.37% = 4.15 |
| 9. EPS Trend 72.76% = 3.64 |
What is the price of AA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.24%, over one month by +10.90%, over three months by +14.81% and over the past year by -2.06%.
Is Alcoa a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AA is around 30.06 USD . This means that AA is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -8.52%.
Is AA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 33.6 | 2.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 33.6 | 2.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 33.2 | 0.9% |
Last update: 2025-09-13 04:30
AA Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 1.51b USD (last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 7.6156
P/E Forward = 13.4953
P/S = 0.6543
P/B = 1.3053
P/EG = -0.29
Beta = 2.259
Revenue TTM = 13.10b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.55b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.17b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.57b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.65b USD (Calculated: Short Term 75.0m + Long Term 2.57b)
Net Debt = 1.14b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.50b USD (8.36b + Debt 2.65b - CCE 1.51b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.82 (Ebit TTM 1.55b / Interest Expense TTM 198.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.13% (FCF TTM 582.0m / Enterprise Value 9.50b)
FCF Margin = 4.44% (FCF TTM 582.0m / Revenue TTM 13.10b)
Net Margin = 7.66% (Net Income TTM 1.00b / Revenue TTM 13.10b)
Gross Margin = 18.70% ((Revenue TTM 13.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -1.75 (set to none) (Enterprise Value 9.50b / Book Value Of Equity -5.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.11% (Interest Expense 56.0m / Debt 2.65b)
Taxrate = 91.70% (265.0m / 289.0m)
NOPAT = 128.6m (EBIT 1.55b * (1 - 91.70%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 5.40b / Total Current Liabilities 3.27b)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 2.65b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 6.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.22 (Net Debt 1.14b / EBITDA 2.17b)
Debt / FCF = 4.55 (Debt 2.65b / FCF TTM 582.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.59b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 6.70% (Net Income 1.00b, Total Assets 14.99b )
RoE = 17.96% (Net Income TTM 1.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.59b)
RoCE = 18.98% (Ebit 1.55b / (Equity 5.59b + L.T.Debt 2.57b))
RoIC = 1.55% (NOPAT 128.6m / Invested Capital 8.30b)
WACC = 7.29% (E(8.36b)/V(11.01b) * Re(9.55%)) + (D(2.65b)/V(11.01b) * Rd(2.11%) * (1-Tc(0.92)))
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 82.19 | Cagr: 3.46%
Discount Rate = 9.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 63.96% ; FCFE base≈582.0m ; Y1≈382.1m ; Y5≈174.7m
Fair Price DCF = 10.52 (DCF Value 2.72b / Shares Outstanding 258.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 72.76 | EPS CAGR: 24.60% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 55.37 | Revenue CAGR: 1.64% | SUE: N/A | # QB: None
Additional Sources for AA Stock
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