AA Stock Analysis: Alcoa | NYSE
Aluminum | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.667m USD | 12M Return: 16.1% | US0138721065 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 183M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) is a vertically integrated aluminum company engaged across the full value chain, from bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminum smelting and energy generation. The company operates globally, with activities in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and the United States, and reports through two core segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It supplies commodity-grade and value-add aluminum ingot, powder, and scrap to customers in transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and broader industrial markets, and also operates an energy business selling wholesale electricity to traders, industrial consumers, and utilities. Originally founded in 1886 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company was reorganized into its current corporate form in 2016.
As a GICS-classified Materials company within the Aluminum sub-industry, Alcoa sits at the upstream end of the light-metals supply chain, making its earnings sensitive to global alumina and aluminum prices, bauxite ore grades, and electricity costs-a meaningful exposure given that aluminum smelting is one of the most energy-intensive industrial processes. Its integrated model, spanning mining, refining, smelting, and power generation, allows the company to manage input costs internally, which is uncommon among peers focused on a single segment of the value chain.
- LME aluminum prices swing on China supply discipline
- Alumina segment margins track bauxite costs and energy
- European carbon regulations force smelter curtailments
| Net Income: 1.53b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.30% < 20% (prev 14.21%; Δ 22.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.44b > Net Income 1.53b |
| Net Debt (673.0m) to EBITDA (2.42b): 0.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (266.0m) vs 12m ago 2.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.93% > 18% (prev 19.81%; Δ 2.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 78.79% > 50% (prev 83.66%; Δ -4.87% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.57 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.75b / Interest Expense TTM 129.0m) |
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 9.17b - Total Current Liabilities 3.97b) / Total Assets 20.4b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 964.0m / Total Assets 20.4b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 1.75b / Avg Total Assets 18.2b) |
| D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 8.24b / Total Liabilities 12.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.19 = A |
| DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 1.52b/1.19b, Revenue 14.3b/13.4b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 19.81% / 21.93%) |
| AQI: 0.81 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 14.3b / 13.4b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 1.53b - CFO 1.44b) / TA 20.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.45 with a total of 13,631,448 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.78%, over one month by -11.75%, over three months by -5.57% and over the past year by +16.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.30 (which is 5.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Alcoa has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AA.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 59.9 | 44.5% |
P/E Trailing = 8.6183
P/E Forward = 8.0386
P/S = 0.7842
P/B = 1.5763
P/EG = 8.3617
Revenue TTM = 14.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.75b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.42b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.08b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 259.0m
Net Debt = 673.0m USD (calculated: Debt 5.08b - CCE 4.41b)
Enterprise Value = 11.3b USD (10.7b + Debt 5.08b - CCE 4.41b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.57 (Ebit TTM 1.75b / Interest Expense TTM 129.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.96x (Enterprise Value 11.3b / FCF TTM 758.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.68% (FCF TTM 758.0m / Enterprise Value 11.3b)
FCF Margin = 5.30% (FCF TTM 758.0m / Revenue TTM 14.3b)
Net Margin = 10.68% (Net Income TTM 1.53b / Revenue TTM 14.3b)
Gross Margin = 21.93% ((Revenue TTM 14.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.81% (prev 25.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.56 (Enterprise Value 11.3b / Total Assets 20.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.54% (Interest Expense 129.0m / Debt 5.08b)
Taxrate = 6.91% (112.0m / 1.62b)
NOPAT = 1.63b (EBIT 1.75b * (1 - 6.91%))
Current Ratio = 2.31 (Total Current Assets 9.17b / Total Current Liabilities 3.97b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 5.08b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.28 (Net Debt 673.0m / EBITDA 2.42b)
Debt / FCF = 0.89 (Net Debt 673.0m / FCF TTM 758.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.41% (Net Income 1.53b / Total Assets 20.4b)
RoE = 21.40% (Net Income TTM 1.53b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.14b)
RoCE = 18.28% (EBIT 1.75b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.14b + L.T.Debt 2.44b))
RoIC = 10.40% (NOPAT 1.63b / Invested Capital 15.7b)
WACC = 9.14% (E(10.7b)/V(15.7b) * Re(12.37%) + D(5.08b)/V(15.7b) * Rd(2.54%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 12.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 71.45 | Cagr: 18.66%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.45% ; FCFF base≈715.2m ; Y1≈819.9m ; Y5≈1.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = 57.84 (EV 15.9b - Net Debt 673.0m = Equity 15.3b / Shares 263.9m; r=9.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.71 | Revenue CAGR: 11.29% | SUE: -0.42 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=+11.63% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.52 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=+73.0% | GrowthRev=+15.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.74 | Chg30d=+1.14% | Revisions=+18% | GrowthEPS=-12.1% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +9% (up=11, down=9)