AAP Stock Analysis: Advance Auto Parts | NYSE
Auto Parts | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.398m USD | 12M Return: -0.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 93.0M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -96.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Advance Auto Parts is a leading U.S.-based retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, serving both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. Its product assortment spans replacement components (such as batteries, brakes, exhaust systems, engine parts, and steering components) along with maintenance fluids, accessories, tools, and appearance products. Beyond parts, the company offers in-store services including battery and wiper installation, engine light scanning, electrical system testing, oil and battery recycling, and a loaner tool program. It operates stores under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest banners across the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and several Caribbean islands, and also sells through online channels. Founded in 1929 and headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, the company trades on the NYSE under the ticker AAP.
The automotive aftermarket sector supplies replacement parts, accessories, and services to vehicles already in use, distinguishing it from the OEM manufacturing segment. Retailers in this space typically rely on a dual customer base-DIY consumers purchasing for personal repairs and DIFM (do-it-for-me) clients who rely on professional installers-often supported by a combination of physical store networks and e-commerce platforms.
- New CEO turnaround plan accelerates store closures and cost cuts
- Commercial segment expansion offsets weakness in DIY demand
- Aging US vehicle fleet supports sustained aftermarket parts demand
| Net Income: 44.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.00% < 20% (prev 14.45%; Δ 22.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 91.0m > Net Income 44.0m |
| Net Debt (4.08b) to EBITDA (509.0m): 8.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (60.9m) vs 12m ago 1.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.04% > 18% (prev 37.22%; Δ 6.82% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.03% > 50% (prev 83.88%; Δ -6.85% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.42 > 6 (EBIT TTM 252.0m / Interest Expense TTM 177.0m) |
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 7.30b - Total Current Liabilities 4.11b) / Total Assets 11.8b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 4.16b / Total Assets 11.8b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 252.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.2b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 2.21b / Total Liabilities 9.59b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.32 = A |
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 402.0m/494.0m, Revenue 8.63b/8.91b) |
| GMI: 0.85 (GM 37.22% / 44.04%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 8.63b / 8.91b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 44.0m - CFO 91.0m) / TA 11.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.37 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 57.95 with a total of 1,778,962 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.39%, over one month by -1.93%, over three months by +6.64% and over the past year by -0.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 52.70 (which is 9.1% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Advance Auto Parts has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AAP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 25
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 60.4 | 4.2% |
P/E Trailing = 50.2946
P/E Forward = 23.5849
P/S = 0.3937
P/B = 1.6774
P/EG = 1.6839
Revenue TTM = 8.63b USD
EBIT TTM = 252.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 509.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.41b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 435.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.81b
Net Debt = 4.08b USD (calculated: Debt 7.04b - CCE 2.96b)
Enterprise Value = 7.48b USD (3.40b + Debt 7.04b - CCE 2.96b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.42 (Ebit TTM 252.0m / Interest Expense TTM 177.0m)
EV/FCF = -42.76x (Enterprise Value 7.48b / FCF TTM -175.0m)
FCF Yield = -2.34% (FCF TTM -175.0m / Enterprise Value 7.48b)
FCF Margin = -2.03% (FCF TTM -175.0m / Revenue TTM 8.63b)
Net Margin = 0.51% (Net Income TTM 44.0m / Revenue TTM 8.63b)
Gross Margin = 44.04% ((Revenue TTM 8.63b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.83b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.07% (prev 44.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.63 (Enterprise Value 7.48b / Total Assets 11.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.51% (Interest Expense 177.0m / Debt 7.04b)
Taxrate = 9.33% (7.00m / 75.0m)
NOPAT = 228.5m (EBIT 252.0m * (1 - 9.33%))
Current Ratio = 1.78 (Total Current Assets 7.30b / Total Current Liabilities 4.11b)
Debt / Equity = 3.18 (Debt 7.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.02 (Net Debt 4.08b / EBITDA 509.0m)
Debt / FCF = -23.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 4.08b / FCF TTM -175.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.39% (Net Income 44.0m / Total Assets 11.8b)
RoE = 2.00% (Net Income TTM 44.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.20b)
RoCE = 4.49% (EBIT 252.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.20b + L.T.Debt 3.41b))
RoIC = 2.97% (NOPAT 228.5m / Invested Capital 7.70b)
WACC = 4.93% (E(3.40b)/V(10.4b) * Re(10.42%) + D(7.04b)/V(10.4b) * Rd(2.51%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 10.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.33 | Cagr: 0.91%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -175.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -96.59 | Revenue CAGR: -9.99% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=-5.35% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=23
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=-7.14% | Revisions=-65% | Analysts=23
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.94 | Chg30d=+0.89% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=+30.0% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.01 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=+41% | GrowthEPS=+36.4% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +8% (up=41, down=35)