AAP Stock Analysis: Advance Auto Parts | NYSE
Auto Parts | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.516m USD | 12M Return: -22.6% | US00751Y1064 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 67.9M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -93.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP) is a leading retailer of automotive aftermarket parts and accessories, operating in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The company offers a comprehensive range of products, including batteries, brakes, engine components, exhaust systems, ignition parts, cooling systems, steering and alignment components, tires, and various maintenance chemicals like motor oil, antifreeze, and lubricants. It also carries interior and exterior accessories, tools, lighting, and performance parts. In addition to retail products, the company provides services such as battery and wiper installation, engine diagnostics, electrical system testing, oil and battery recycling, and a loaner tool program. Advance Auto Parts serves both professional installers and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, operating company-owned and independently branded stores across the U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade names. The company also sells its products online, strengthening its omnichannel presence in the competitive automotive retail industry. Founded in 1929 and headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, Advance Auto Parts has been publicly traded since 2001.
- Same-store sales decline pressures quarterly revenue
- New CEO turnaround targets margin and inventory recovery
- Intense competition from AutoZone and OReilly limits pricing power
| Net Income: 84.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.08% < 20% (prev 14.67%; Δ 22.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 312.0m > Net Income 84.0m |
| Net Debt (3.92b) to EBITDA (737.0m): 5.31 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.0m) vs 12m ago 0.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.66% > 18% (prev 37.06%; Δ 7.60% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.45% > 50% (prev 82.90%; Δ -6.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.63 > 6 (EBIT TTM 335.0m / Interest Expense TTM 206.0m) |
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 7.47b - Total Current Liabilities 4.28b) / Total Assets 12.0b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 4.20b / Total Assets 12.0b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 335.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.3b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 2.26b / Total Liabilities 9.76b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.33 = A |
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 390.0m/492.0m, Revenue 8.62b/8.74b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 37.06% / 44.66%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 8.62b / 8.74b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 84.0m - CFO 312.0m) / TA 12.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.41 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.62 with a total of 1,101,383 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.62%, over one month by -6.98%, over three months by -24.44% and over the past year by -22.62%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.50 (which is 5.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Advance Auto Parts has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AAP.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 20
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 50 | 20% |
P/E Trailing = 23.1444
P/E Forward = 10.7643
P/S = 0.2918
P/B = 1.0999
P/EG = 0.7685
Revenue TTM = 8.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 335.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 737.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 435.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.82b
Net Debt = 3.92b USD (calculated: Debt 7.04b - CCE 3.12b)
Enterprise Value = 6.43b USD (2.52b + Debt 7.04b - CCE 3.12b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.63 (Ebit TTM 335.0m / Interest Expense TTM 206.0m)
EV/FCF = 279.6x (Enterprise Value 6.43b / FCF TTM 23.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.36% (FCF TTM 23.0m / Enterprise Value 6.43b)
FCF Margin = 0.27% (FCF TTM 23.0m / Revenue TTM 8.62b)
Net Margin = 0.97% (Net Income TTM 84.0m / Revenue TTM 8.62b)
Gross Margin = 44.66% ((Revenue TTM 8.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.15% (prev 45.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.54 (Enterprise Value 6.43b / Total Assets 12.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.93% (Interest Expense 206.0m / Debt 7.04b)
Taxrate = 16.28% (21.0m / 129.0m)
NOPAT = 280.5m (EBIT 335.0m * (1 - 16.28%))
Current Ratio = 1.75 (Total Current Assets 7.47b / Total Current Liabilities 4.28b)
Debt / Equity = 3.12 (Debt 7.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.31 (Net Debt 3.92b / EBITDA 737.0m)
Debt / FCF = 170.2 (Net Debt 3.92b / FCF TTM 23.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.74% (Net Income 84.0m / Total Assets 12.0b)
RoE = 3.79% (Net Income TTM 84.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.22b)
RoCE = 5.98% (EBIT 335.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.22b + L.T.Debt 3.39b))
RoIC = 3.62% (NOPAT 280.5m / Invested Capital 7.75b)
WACC = 4.32% (E(2.52b)/V(9.55b) * Re(9.55%) + D(7.04b)/V(9.55b) * Rd(2.93%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 9.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.82 | Cagr: 0.86%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈23.0m ; Y1≈23.1m ; Y5≈24.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 380.5m - Net Debt 3.92b = -3.53b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -93.93 | Revenue CAGR: -8.66% | SUE: -0.15 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+1.22% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.00 | Chg30d=+0.21% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+32.7% | GrowthRev=-0.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.91 | Chg30d=+0.57% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+30.6% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -9% (up=9, down=11)