(AAP) Advance Auto Parts - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US00751Y1064
Batteries, Brakes, Filters, Fluids, Tools
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.70% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.89% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 90.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 4.8% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 82.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.75% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.34 |
| Alpha | -12.94 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.500 |
| Beta | 0.925 |
| Beta Downside | 0.964 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 79.80% |
| Mean DD | 55.87% |
| Median DD | 60.33% |
Description: AAP Advance Auto Parts November 07, 2025
Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) is a leading U.S. automotive aftermarket retailer that supplies a broad catalog of parts and services-including batteries, brakes, engine components, fluids, and accessories-to both professional installers and DIY customers. The company operates under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest brands across the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Canada, and through franchised Carquest stores in Mexico and the Caribbean.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately **$10.5 billion**, with **comparable store sales up 6% YoY**, driven by a rising average vehicle age (now ~12 years) that fuels parts demand. Inventory turnover improved to **5.2×**, reflecting tighter supply-chain management, while the DIY segment contributed roughly **45% of total sales**, a proportion that tends to expand in periods of higher consumer confidence. Macro-level drivers include the **U.S. vehicle fleet aging trend** and the **gradual shift toward electric vehicles**, which could reshape parts mix and service offerings over the next decade.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit to model AAP’s valuation under different demand scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income (-376.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 515.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.19pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.88% (prev 19.87%; Δ 17.01pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO -191.3m > Net Income -376.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.73 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (60.0m) change vs 12m ago 0.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 36.99% (prev 41.65%; Δ -4.66pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 70.06% (prev 76.70%; Δ -6.64pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -7.94 (EBITDA TTM -397.7m / Interest Expense TTM 104.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.94
| (A) 0.26 = (Total Current Assets 7.52b - Total Current Liabilities 4.35b) / Total Assets 12.06b |
| (B) 0.34 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.16b / Total Assets 12.06b |
| (C) -0.07 = EBIT TTM -832.5m / Avg Total Assets 12.26b |
| (D) 0.52 = Book Value of Equity 5.14b / Total Liabilities 9.86b |
| Total Rating: 2.94 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 14.53
| 1. Piotroski 0.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -7.57% |
| 3. FCF Margin -4.67% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.40 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -5.25 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -13.30)% |
| 7. RoE -17.19% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -64.88% |
| 9. EPS Trend -64.63% |
What is the price of AAP shares?
As of December 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 46.37 with a total of 1,499,317 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.63%, over one month by -9.11%, over three months by -23.72% and over the past year by +7.68%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.63%, over one month by -9.11%, over three months by -23.72% and over the past year by +7.68%.
Is AAP a buy, sell or hold?
Advance Auto Parts has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold AAP.
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 25
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AAP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 54.3 | 17.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 54.3 | 17.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 38.6 | -16.7% |
AAP Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
Market Cap USD = 3.21b (3.21b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 21.0526
P/S = 0.3725
P/B = 1.4638
P/EG = 1.5024
Beta = 1.171
Revenue TTM = 8.59b USD
EBIT TTM = -832.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -397.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.41b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 300.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 5.26b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.09b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.30b USD (3.21b + Debt 5.26b - CCE 3.17b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.94 (Ebit TTM -832.5m / Interest Expense TTM 104.9m)
FCF Yield = -7.57% (FCF TTM -401.4m / Enterprise Value 5.30b)
FCF Margin = -4.67% (FCF TTM -401.4m / Revenue TTM 8.59b)
Net Margin = -4.39% (Net Income TTM -376.8m / Revenue TTM 8.59b)
Gross Margin = 36.99% ((Revenue TTM 8.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.34% (prev 43.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 5.30b / Total Assets 12.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.76% (Interest Expense 40.0m / Debt 5.26b)
Taxrate = 50.0% (-1.00m / -2.00m)
NOPAT = -416.3m (EBIT -832.5m * (1 - 50.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 7.52b / Total Current Liabilities 4.35b)
Debt / Equity = 2.40 (Debt 5.26b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.25 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 2.09b / EBITDA -397.7m)
Debt / FCF = -5.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.09b / FCF TTM -401.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.12% (Net Income -376.8m / Total Assets 12.06b)
RoE = -17.19% (Net Income TTM -376.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.19b)
RoCE = -14.86% (EBIT -832.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.19b + L.T.Debt 3.41b))
RoIC = -9.49% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -416.3m / Invested Capital 4.39b)
WACC = 3.81% (E(3.21b)/V(8.47b) * Re(9.42%) + D(5.26b)/V(8.47b) * Rd(0.76%) * (1-Tc(0.50)))
Discount Rate = 9.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.27%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -401.4m)
EPS Correlation: -64.63 | EPS CAGR: -19.45% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -64.88 | Revenue CAGR: -4.68% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=+0.024 | Revisions Net=-5 | Analysts=16
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.70 | Chg30d=-0.113 | Revisions Net=-12 | Growth EPS=+48.2% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%
P/E Forward = 21.0526
P/S = 0.3725
P/B = 1.4638
P/EG = 1.5024
Beta = 1.171
Revenue TTM = 8.59b USD
EBIT TTM = -832.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -397.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.41b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 300.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 5.26b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.09b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.30b USD (3.21b + Debt 5.26b - CCE 3.17b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.94 (Ebit TTM -832.5m / Interest Expense TTM 104.9m)
FCF Yield = -7.57% (FCF TTM -401.4m / Enterprise Value 5.30b)
FCF Margin = -4.67% (FCF TTM -401.4m / Revenue TTM 8.59b)
Net Margin = -4.39% (Net Income TTM -376.8m / Revenue TTM 8.59b)
Gross Margin = 36.99% ((Revenue TTM 8.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.34% (prev 43.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 5.30b / Total Assets 12.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.76% (Interest Expense 40.0m / Debt 5.26b)
Taxrate = 50.0% (-1.00m / -2.00m)
NOPAT = -416.3m (EBIT -832.5m * (1 - 50.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 7.52b / Total Current Liabilities 4.35b)
Debt / Equity = 2.40 (Debt 5.26b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.25 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 2.09b / EBITDA -397.7m)
Debt / FCF = -5.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.09b / FCF TTM -401.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.12% (Net Income -376.8m / Total Assets 12.06b)
RoE = -17.19% (Net Income TTM -376.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.19b)
RoCE = -14.86% (EBIT -832.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.19b + L.T.Debt 3.41b))
RoIC = -9.49% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -416.3m / Invested Capital 4.39b)
WACC = 3.81% (E(3.21b)/V(8.47b) * Re(9.42%) + D(5.26b)/V(8.47b) * Rd(0.76%) * (1-Tc(0.50)))
Discount Rate = 9.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.27%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -401.4m)
EPS Correlation: -64.63 | EPS CAGR: -19.45% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -64.88 | Revenue CAGR: -4.68% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=+0.024 | Revisions Net=-5 | Analysts=16
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.70 | Chg30d=-0.113 | Revisions Net=-12 | Growth EPS=+48.2% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%
Additional Sources for AAP Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle