(AAP) Advance Auto Parts - Overview
Stock: Auto Parts, Fluids, Tools, Accessories, Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.25% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.71% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -25.52% |
| Payout Consistency | 91.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 71.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Alpha | -0.62 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.039 |
| Beta Downside | 1.011 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 79.18% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.34 |
Description: AAP Advance Auto Parts January 10, 2026
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) is a leading U.S. automotive aftermarket retailer that supplies a broad catalog of parts-from batteries and brakes to performance upgrades and maintenance consumables-and offers a suite of services such as battery installation, engine-light diagnostics, and tool-loan programs. The company operates under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest banners across the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Canada, and through franchised Carquest stores in Mexico and the Caribbean, serving both professional installers and DIY customers.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately **$10.2 billion**, with **adjusted earnings per share of $2.00**, reflecting a modest profit expansion despite a competitive retail environment. Same-store sales grew **~5% year-over-year**, driven largely by a continued shift toward DIY maintenance as the average vehicle age in the U.S. climbs above 12 years-a core sector tailwind. Inventory turnover improved to **~5.8×**, indicating tighter supply-chain execution, while the DIY segment now accounts for roughly **55% of total sales**, a slight increase from prior years.
For a deeper dive into AAP’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, check out the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -376.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.88% < 20% (prev 19.87%; Δ 17.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -191.3m > Net Income -376.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (60.0m) vs 12m ago 0.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.99% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 3657 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.06% > 50% (prev 76.70%; Δ -6.64% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -7.94 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -397.7m / Interest Expense TTM 104.9m) |
Altman Z'' 2.94
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 7.52b - Total Current Liabilities 4.35b) / Total Assets 12.06b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 4.16b / Total Assets 12.06b) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -832.5m / Avg Total Assets 12.26b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 5.14b / Total Liabilities 9.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.94 = A |
Beneish M -3.15
| DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 483.0m/668.9m, Revenue 8.59b/9.56b) |
| GMI: 1.13 (GM 36.99% / 41.65%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 8.59b / 9.56b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI -376.8m - CFO -191.3m) / TA 12.06b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AAP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.18%, over one month by +34.50%, over three months by +17.19% and over the past year by +15.76%.
Is AAP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 25
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AAP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 51.3 | -7.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 51.3 | -7.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 46.2 | -16.5% |
AAP Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 0.3341
P/B = 1.3158
P/EG = 1.6652
Revenue TTM = 8.59b USD
EBIT TTM = -832.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -397.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.41b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 300.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 5.26b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.09b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.97b USD (2.88b + Debt 5.26b - CCE 3.17b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7.94 (Ebit TTM -832.5m / Interest Expense TTM 104.9m)
EV/FCF = -12.38x (Enterprise Value 4.97b / FCF TTM -401.4m)
FCF Yield = -8.08% (FCF TTM -401.4m / Enterprise Value 4.97b)
FCF Margin = -4.67% (FCF TTM -401.4m / Revenue TTM 8.59b)
Net Margin = -4.39% (Net Income TTM -376.8m / Revenue TTM 8.59b)
Gross Margin = 36.99% ((Revenue TTM 8.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.34% (prev 43.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.41 (Enterprise Value 4.97b / Total Assets 12.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.76% (Interest Expense 40.0m / Debt 5.26b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -657.7m (EBIT -832.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 7.52b / Total Current Liabilities 4.35b)
Debt / Equity = 2.40 (Debt 5.26b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.25 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 2.09b / EBITDA -397.7m)
Debt / FCF = -5.20 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.09b / FCF TTM -401.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.07% (Net Income -376.8m / Total Assets 12.06b)
RoE = -17.19% (Net Income TTM -376.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.19b)
RoCE = -14.86% (EBIT -832.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.19b + L.T.Debt 3.41b))
RoIC = -14.99% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -657.7m / Invested Capital 4.39b)
WACC = 3.84% (E(2.88b)/V(8.14b) * Re(9.74%) + D(5.26b)/V(8.14b) * Rd(0.76%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.27%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -401.4m)
EPS Correlation: -64.63 | EPS CAGR: -19.45% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -64.88 | Revenue CAGR: -4.68% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-0.027 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=20
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.68 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+47.6% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%