AAUC Stock Analysis: Allied Gold | NYSE
Gold | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.029m USD | 12M Return: 66.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.67M
Rev. Trend: 92.8%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Allied Gold Corporation (NYSE: AAUC) is a Canada-based gold mining company that primarily explores gold and silver deposits across Africa. The company is headquartered in Toronto and trades on the NYSE following its mid-2025 IPO, positioning it within the Materials sector under the GICS Gold sub-industry classification. As a mid-cap precious metals producer, it operates within a sector characterized by long asset lifecycles, exposure to commodity price volatility, and sensitivity to currency and political risk in host jurisdictions.
The companys flagship asset is the Sadiola gold project, which consists of two mining licenses located in the Republic of Mali, West Africa. The company was formed through the merger of Allied Gold Corp Limited and Allied Merger Corporation, adopting its current name in September 2023. West Africa, and Mali in particular, is part of the Birimian greenstone belt, a prolific geological region that hosts multiple multi-million-ounce gold deposits and is a key producing area for the global gold industry.
- Gold price rally lifts realized revenue and margins
- Mali political instability threatens Sadiola mine operations
- Sadiola expansion project ramps up production capacity
| Net Income: -124.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -29.77% < 20% (prev -15.01%; Δ -14.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 448.7m > Net Income -124.5m |
| Net Debt (-145.9m) to EBITDA (454.6m): -0.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (125.3m) vs 12m ago 4.56% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.35% > 18% (prev 33.52%; Δ 7.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 75.25% > 50% (prev 64.41%; Δ 10.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 34.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 382.3m / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m) |
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 750.9m - Total Current Liabilities 1.16b) / Total Assets 2.25b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -340.2m / Total Assets 2.25b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 382.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.83b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 335.7m / Total Liabilities 1.81b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.08 = B |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 87.6m/49.1m, Revenue 1.37b/901.7m) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 33.52% / 41.35%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.52 (Revenue 1.37b / 901.7m) |
| TATA: -0.25 (NI -124.5m - CFO 448.7m) / TA 2.25b) |
| Beneish M = -2.71 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.46 with a total of 203,894 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.65%, over one month by -14.86%, over three months by -28.97% and over the past year by +66.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.10 (which is 6.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Allied Gold has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 4.2608
P/S = 2.1955
P/B = 9.2541
Revenue TTM = 1.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 382.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 454.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 24.4m USD (estimated: total debt 247.5m - short term 223.1m)
Short Term Debt = 223.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 279.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 32.2m
Net Debt = -145.9m USD (calculated: Debt 279.7m - CCE 425.6m)
Enterprise Value = 2.88b USD (3.03b + Debt 279.7m - CCE 425.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 34.39 (Ebit TTM 382.3m / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m)
EV/FCF = 90.41x (Enterprise Value 2.88b / FCF TTM 31.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.11% (FCF TTM 31.9m / Enterprise Value 2.88b)
FCF Margin = 2.32% (FCF TTM 31.9m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = -9.06% (Net Income TTM -124.5m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 41.35% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 805.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.23% (prev 48.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 2.88b / Total Assets 2.25b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.97% (Interest Expense 11.1m / Debt 279.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 302.0m (EBIT 382.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 750.9m / Total Current Liabilities 1.16b)
Debt / Equity = 0.83 (Debt 279.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 335.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.32 (Net Debt -145.9m / EBITDA 454.6m)
Debt / FCF = -4.58 (Net Debt -145.9m / FCF TTM 31.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 363.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.82% (Net Income -124.5m / Total Assets 2.25b)
RoE = -34.21% (Net Income TTM -124.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 363.9m)
RoCE = 98.44% (EBIT 382.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 363.9m + L.T.Debt 24.4m))
RoIC = 24.22% (NOPAT 302.0m / Invested Capital 1.25b)
WACC = 4.86% (E(3.03b)/V(3.31b) * Re(5.02%) + D(279.7m)/V(3.31b) * Rd(3.97%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.40 | Cagr: 19.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈31.9m ; Y1≈32.0m ; Y5≈33.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.35 (EV 527.5m - Net Debt -145.9m = Equity 673.4m / Shares 125.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.80 | Revenue CAGR: 42.52% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+68.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+34.9%