ACEL Stock Analysis: Accel Entertainment | NYSE
Gambling | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 988m USD | 12M Return: -6.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.70M
EPS Trend: -51.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) is a U.S. distributed gaming operator that installs, maintains, and operates gaming terminals, cash-redemption devices with ATM functionality, and other amusement equipment in authorized non-casino venues such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. In addition to its route-based gaming business, the company designs and manufactures gaming terminals and related equipment, offers turnkey gaming solutions to third-party operators, runs stand-alone ATMs, and is developing brick-and-mortar casinos and horse racing venues. Accel is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois, and trades on the NYSE in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Casinos & Gaming sub-industry).
The distributed or route gaming model - a regulated segment of the broader casino industry - allows video gaming machines and similar terminals to be placed in non-casino retail locations under state-level frameworks (notably established in Illinois), with the operator typically sharing a portion of net gaming revenue with the host venue. Because revenue is largely tied to net win per unit per day across a geographically dispersed terminal base, operators in this space are sensitive to state tax rates, regulatory changes, and the pace of new location additions.
- Illinois gaming tax hike pressures distributed gaming margins
- Active terminal growth and new state expansion drive revenue
- Acquisitions add locations and scale distributed gaming footprint
| Net Income: 51.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.73% < 20% (prev 14.82%; Δ -0.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 148.9m > Net Income 51.5m |
| Net Debt (319.5m) to EBITDA (186.9m): 1.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.71 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (84.1m) vs 12m ago -3.59% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.83% > 18% (prev 30.36%; Δ 1.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 128.3% > 50% (prev 119.7%; Δ 8.61% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 107.4m / Interest Expense TTM 35.0m) |
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 317.3m - Total Current Liabilities 117.2m) / Total Assets 1.07b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 200.9m / Total Assets 1.07b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 107.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.06b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 272.3m / Total Liabilities 794.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.88 = A |
| DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 17.5m/12.7m, Revenue 1.36b/1.25b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 30.36% / 31.83%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 1.36b / 1.25b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 51.5m - CFO 148.9m) / TA 1.07b) |
| Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.03 with a total of 219,628 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.99%, over one month by -9.55%, over three months by -2.59% and over the past year by -6.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.20 (which is 6.9% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Accel Entertainment has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ACEL.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.5 | 28.8% |
P/E Trailing = 20.2333
P/E Forward = 16.0514
P/S = 0.7273
P/B = 3.68
Revenue TTM = 1.36b USD
EBIT TTM = 107.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 186.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 550.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 33.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 593.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 319.5m USD (calculated: Debt 593.6m - CCE 274.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.31b USD (988.1m + Debt 593.6m - CCE 274.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.07 (Ebit TTM 107.4m / Interest Expense TTM 35.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.56x (Enterprise Value 1.31b / FCF TTM 152.8m)
FCF Yield = 11.68% (FCF TTM 152.8m / Enterprise Value 1.31b)
FCF Margin = 11.24% (FCF TTM 152.8m / Revenue TTM 1.36b)
Net Margin = 3.79% (Net Income TTM 51.5m / Revenue TTM 1.36b)
Gross Margin = 31.83% ((Revenue TTM 1.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 926.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.27% (prev 33.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.22 (Enterprise Value 1.31b / Total Assets 1.07b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.90% (Interest Expense 35.0m / Debt 593.6m)
Taxrate = 29.08% (21.0m / 72.4m)
NOPAT = 76.2m (EBIT 107.4m * (1 - 29.08%))
Current Ratio = 2.71 (Total Current Assets 317.3m / Total Current Liabilities 117.2m)
Debt / Equity = 2.18 (Debt 593.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 272.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.71 (Net Debt 319.5m / EBITDA 186.9m)
Debt / FCF = 2.09 (Net Debt 319.5m / FCF TTM 152.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 267.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.86% (Net Income 51.5m / Total Assets 1.07b)
RoE = 19.26% (Net Income TTM 51.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 267.4m)
RoCE = 13.13% (EBIT 107.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 267.4m + L.T.Debt 550.6m))
RoIC = 8.29% (NOPAT 76.2m / Invested Capital 919.1m)
WACC = 6.68% (E(988.1m)/V(1.58b) * Re(8.18%) + D(593.6m)/V(1.58b) * Rd(5.90%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 8.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 2.94 | Cagr: -1.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈117.5m ; Y1≈134.7m ; Y5≈198.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 32.72 (EV 2.98b - Net Debt 319.5m = Equity 2.66b / Shares 81.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -50.96 | EPS CAGR: -9.81% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.43 | Revenue CAGR: 6.74% | SUE: 2.26 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-12.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=-25.58% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=-0.55% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-15.0% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.52% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+12.8% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +12% (up=3, down=2)