ACEL Stock Analysis: Accel Entertainment | NYSE
Gambling | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 899m USD | 12M Return: -1.7% | US00436Q1067 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.76M
EPS Trend: -29.6%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL) is a U.S. distributed gaming operator that installs, maintains, and operates gaming terminals, redemption devices, and ATMs in authorized non-casino venues such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores. This route-based model targets locations where traditional casinos are not present, allowing the company to capture gaming revenue from everyday consumer establishments.
In addition to operating gaming equipment, Accel designs and manufactures gaming terminals and related equipment, and provides turnkey, full-service gaming solutions to bars, restaurants, convenience stores, truck stops, and fraternal and veteran establishments. The company also operates stand-alone ATMs in both gaming and non-gaming locations, supplies amusement devices such as jukeboxes, dartboards, and pool tables, and develops brick-and-mortar casinos serving local gaming markets as well as horse racing venues. Accel is headquartered in Burr Ridge, Illinois, and is classified within the GICS Casinos & Gaming sub-industry.
- Illinois gaming terminal regulation changes impact operator margins
- Same-store revenue grows as bar and tavern foot traffic rebounds
- New state licenses and location expansion accelerate terminal count growth
| Net Income: 56.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.86 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.89% < 20% (prev 15.07%; Δ -1.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 149.0m > Net Income 56.7m |
| Net Debt (317.9m) to EBITDA (204.1m): 1.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.4m) vs 12m ago -4.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.83% > 18% (prev 30.69%; Δ 1.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 129.2% > 50% (prev 121.1%; Δ 8.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM 123.4m / Interest Expense TTM 34.9m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 324.3m - Total Current Liabilities 131.1m) / Total Assets 1.10b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 213.4m / Total Assets 1.10b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 123.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.08b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 283.9m / Total Liabilities 809.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.93 = A |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 41.0m/11.8m, Revenue 1.39b/1.28b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 30.69% / 31.83%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.40) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.39b / 1.28b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 56.7m - CFO 149.0m) / TA 1.10b) |
| Beneish M = -1.39 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.84 with a total of 422,848 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.08%, over one month by -6.87%, over three months by -15.11% and over the past year by -1.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.50 (which is 3.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Accel Entertainment has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ACEL.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.6 | 43.6% |
P/E Trailing = 16.5224
P/E Forward = 16.0514
P/S = 0.6478
P/B = 3.1692
Revenue TTM = 1.39b USD
EBIT TTM = 123.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 204.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 543.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 573.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 317.9m USD (calculated: Debt 573.3m - CCE 255.5m)
Enterprise Value = 1.22b USD (898.8m + Debt 573.3m - CCE 255.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.53 (Ebit TTM 123.4m / Interest Expense TTM 34.9m)
EV/FCF = 7.25x (Enterprise Value 1.22b / FCF TTM 167.9m)
FCF Yield = 13.80% (FCF TTM 167.9m / Enterprise Value 1.22b)
FCF Margin = 12.07% (FCF TTM 167.9m / Revenue TTM 1.39b)
Net Margin = 4.08% (Net Income TTM 56.7m / Revenue TTM 1.39b)
Gross Margin = 31.83% ((Revenue TTM 1.39b - Cost of Revenue TTM 948.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.38% (prev 31.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 1.22b / Total Assets 1.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.09% (Interest Expense 34.9m / Debt 573.3m)
Taxrate = 27.84% (21.8m / 78.4m)
NOPAT = 89.0m (EBIT 123.4m * (1 - 27.84%))
Current Ratio = 2.47 (Total Current Assets 324.3m / Total Current Liabilities 131.1m)
Debt / Equity = 2.02 (Debt 573.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 283.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.56 (Net Debt 317.9m / EBITDA 204.1m)
Debt / FCF = 1.89 (Net Debt 317.9m / FCF TTM 167.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 273.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.26% (Net Income 56.7m / Total Assets 1.10b)
RoE = 20.74% (Net Income TTM 56.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 273.2m)
RoCE = 15.11% (EBIT 123.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 273.2m + L.T.Debt 543.3m))
RoIC = 9.61% (NOPAT 89.0m / Invested Capital 926.4m)
WACC = 6.19% (E(898.8m)/V(1.47b) * Re(7.34%) + D(573.3m)/V(1.47b) * Rd(6.09%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -16.52 | Cagr: -0.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈119.5m ; Y1≈137.0m ; Y5≈201.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 33.45 (EV 3.03b - Net Debt 317.9m = Equity 2.72b / Shares 81.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -29.63 | EPS CAGR: -4.50% | SUE: -0.86 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 99.34 | Revenue CAGR: 7.09% | SUE: 3.10 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+4.55% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=-4.22% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-18.6% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=+10.77% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+30.4% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)