ADM Stock Analysis: Archer-Daniels-Midland | NYSE
Farm Products | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 39.097m USD | 12M Return: 40.1% | US0394831020 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 283M
EPS Trend: -90.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -94.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is a global agribusiness that supplies human and animal nutrition ingredients, operating across more than half a dozen countries with its headquarters in Chicago, Illinois. Founded in 1902 and listed on the NYSE since 1983, the company sits in the Consumer Staples sector under Agricultural Products & Services, a grouping that typically includes commodity-driven, vertically integrated food and feed processors.
ADM runs three reporting segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds (sourcing, transporting, storing, and crushing raw commodities such as soybeans, canola, sunflower, and cottonseed into oils and protein meals); Carbohydrate Solutions (corn and wheat wet and dry milling, producing sweeteners, ethanol co-products like distillers grains, and running carbon capture initiatives); and Nutrition (plant-based proteins, flavors, colors, emulsifiers, fibers, probiotics, enzymes, and other specialty ingredients for food and feed customers). The business model is vertically integrated, linking farm-level origination to ingredient manufacturing, which is characteristic of large-scale agricultural processors that serve food, feed, energy, and industrial end-markets.
In addition to its core processing activities, ADM is involved in structured trade finance, derivatives and commodity exchange transactions, and captive insurance coverage for property, casualty, marine, and medical risks, reflecting the broad operational footprint typical of multinational commodity handlers.
- Soybean crushing margins and global grain exports drive Ag Services
- Nutrition segment margins expand on flavors and plant-based protein demand
- Accounting investigation and leadership transition pressure capital allocation
| Net Income: 1.77b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.48% < 20% (prev 9.45%; Δ 0.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 2.79b > Net Income 1.77b |
| Net Debt (1.06b) to EBITDA (3.21b): 0.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.39 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (485.0m) vs 12m ago 0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 6.87% > 18% (prev 5.92%; Δ 0.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 155.6% > 50% (prev 159.2%; Δ -3.64% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.02b / Interest Expense TTM 592.0m) |
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 27.8b - Total Current Liabilities 20.0b) / Total Assets 53.5b |
| B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 22.7b / Total Assets 53.5b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 2.02b / Avg Total Assets 52.8b) |
| D: 0.80 (Book Value of Equity 23.6b / Total Liabilities 29.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.43 = A |
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 7.26b/5.80b, Revenue 82.1b/82.8b) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 5.92% / 6.87%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 82.1b / 82.8b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 1.77b - CFO 2.79b) / TA 53.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 80.45 with a total of 3,414,148 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.83%, over one month by -5.77%, over three months by +5.43% and over the past year by +40.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 77.60 (which is 3.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Archer-Daniels-Midland has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ADM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.4 | -0.1% |
P/E Trailing = 22.1639
P/E Forward = 15.625
P/S = 0.4762
P/B = 1.6796
P/EG = 1.0151
Revenue TTM = 82.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.02b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 6.45b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.86b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.33b
Net Debt = 1.06b USD (calculated: Debt 10.7b - CCE 9.61b)
Enterprise Value = 40.2b USD (39.1b + Debt 10.7b - CCE 9.61b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.41 (Ebit TTM 2.02b / Interest Expense TTM 592.0m)
EV/FCF = 23.95x (Enterprise Value 40.2b / FCF TTM 1.68b)
FCF Yield = 4.18% (FCF TTM 1.68b / Enterprise Value 40.2b)
FCF Margin = 2.04% (FCF TTM 1.68b / Revenue TTM 82.1b)
Net Margin = 2.16% (Net Income TTM 1.77b / Revenue TTM 82.1b)
Gross Margin = 6.87% ((Revenue TTM 82.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 76.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.53% (prev 5.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 40.2b / Total Assets 53.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.55% (Interest Expense 592.0m / Debt 10.7b)
Taxrate = 15.08% (316.0m / 2.10b)
NOPAT = 1.72b (EBIT 2.02b * (1 - 15.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 27.8b / Total Current Liabilities 20.0b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 10.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.33 (Net Debt 1.06b / EBITDA 3.21b)
Debt / FCF = 0.63 (Net Debt 1.06b / FCF TTM 1.68b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.35% (Net Income 1.77b / Total Assets 53.5b)
RoE = 7.73% (Net Income TTM 1.77b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.9b)
RoCE = 6.88% (EBIT 2.02b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.9b + L.T.Debt 6.45b))
RoIC = 5.49% (NOPAT 1.72b / Invested Capital 31.3b)
WACC = 5.94% (E(39.1b)/V(49.8b) * Re(6.28%) + D(10.7b)/V(49.8b) * Rd(5.55%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 6.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -62.89 | Cagr: -2.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈2.65b ; Y1≈2.32b ; Y5≈1.88b
[DCF] Fair Price = 60.32 (EV 30.1b - Net Debt 1.06b = Equity 29.1b / Shares 482.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -90.42 | EPS CAGR: -24.05% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -94.92 | Revenue CAGR: -6.26% | SUE: -0.47 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.57 | Chg30d=+1.69% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.50 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+60.4% | GrowthRev=+7.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.67 | Chg30d=+0.67% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=+3.1% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +87% (up=20, down=0)