ADT Stock Analysis: ADT | NYSE

Security Alarms, Home Automation, Video Surveillance, Emergency Response

Total Rating 44

Safety 56

Buy Signal 0.27

Security & Protection Services
Industry Rotation: -3.2

Market Cap: 5.02B
Avg Turnover: 42.6M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility32.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl5.22%

VaR vs Median-2.80%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.41

Rel. Str. IBD32.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group63 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.402

Beta Downside0.446

Hurst Exponent0.541

Choppyness42.6%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD29.11%

CAGR/Max DD0.46

CAGR/Mean DD1.43

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 23.39%
EPS Trend: 92.2%

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 2.16%
Rev. Trend: 51.1%

Last SUE: 1.84
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Overextended 3d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.7 years of data

Jan -0.8% 17

Feb -0.1% 0

Mar -3.6% 42

Apr -1.5% 18

May +2.2% 14

Jun +2.0% 16

Jul +1.1% 17

Aug -1.0% 0

Sep -2.2% 29

Oct -0.7% 24

Nov +7.3% 27

Dec -3.8% 41

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ADT ADT

ADT Inc. is a U.S.-based provider of security, interactive, and smart home solutions serving both residential and small business customers. The company offers a broad suite of products including burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, home automation systems, video surveillance, and personal emergency response systems, many of which are accessible through its ADT+ app and Trusted Neighbor feature for credentialed home access.

Its business model combines professionally installed and DIY equipment sales with subscription-based monitoring services delivered through company-operated monitoring centers. The industry typically relies on recurring monthly monitoring fees as the primary revenue driver, with equipment sales serving as a complementary revenue stream. Distribution occurs through a multi-channel network including field sales offices, third-party independent and authorized dealers, retail and e-commerce channels, door-to-door activities, and customer referrals.

Founded in 1874 and headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, ADT is one of the longest-established and largest players in the U.S. residential security market, operating under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands. The company is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector under specialized consumer services, reflecting its focus on subscription-based home and small business protection services.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Subscriber additions drive recurring monthly revenue growth
Customer churn rates pressure subscriber retention and margins
Debt reduction lowers interest expense burden
Ring and SimpliSafe competition pressures pricing and market share

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.5

Net Income: 619.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.66 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -6.66% < 20% (prev -21.98%; Δ 15.32% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 2.16b > Net Income 619.1m
Net Debt (7.70b) to EBITDA (2.71b): 2.85 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.69 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (794.0m) vs 12m ago -11.25% < -2%
Gross Margin: 51.39% > 18% (prev 49.79%; Δ 1.60% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 32.58% > 50% (prev 31.67%; Δ 0.91% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.26b / Interest Expense TTM 403.8m)

Altman Z'' 0.14

A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 764.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.11b) / Total Assets 15.7b
B: -0.17 (Retained Earnings -2.67b / Total Assets 15.7b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.26b / Avg Total Assets 15.9b)
D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 3.48b / Total Liabilities 12.3b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.14 = B

Beneish M -3.02

DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 373.0m/432.0m, Revenue 5.16b/5.06b)
GMI: 0.97 (GM 49.79% / 51.39%)
AQI: 1.26 (AQ_t 0.93 / AQ_t-1 0.74)
SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 5.16b / 5.06b)
TATA: -0.10 (NI 619.1m - CFO 2.16b) / TA 15.7b)
Beneish M = -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of ADT shares?

As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.41 with a total of 22,595,712 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.97%, over one month by +19.71%, over three months by +1.75% and over the past year by -12.22%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.00 (which is 5.5% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).

Is ADT a buy, sell or hold?

ADT has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ADT.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 0
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ADT price?

Analysts Target Price	8.1	9.7%

ADT (ADT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 29 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 5.02b (5.02b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.411
P/E Forward = 6.812
P/S = 0.9717
P/B = 1.4454
Revenue TTM = 5.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.26b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.71b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.45b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.3m
Net Debt = 7.70b USD (calculated: Debt 7.71b - CCE 4.00m)
Enterprise Value = 12.7b USD (5.02b + Debt 7.71b - CCE 4.00m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.13 (Ebit TTM 1.26b / Interest Expense TTM 403.8m)
EV/FCF = 6.76x (Enterprise Value 12.7b / FCF TTM 1.88b)
FCF Yield = 14.79% (FCF TTM 1.88b / Enterprise Value 12.7b)
FCF Margin = 36.43% (FCF TTM 1.88b / Revenue TTM 5.16b)
Net Margin = 11.99% (Net Income TTM 619.1m / Revenue TTM 5.16b)
Gross Margin = 51.39% ((Revenue TTM 5.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.43% (prev 54.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 12.7b / Total Assets 15.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.24% (Interest Expense 403.8m / Debt 7.71b)
Taxrate = 27.68% (237.1m / 856.6m)
NOPAT = 913.0m (EBIT 1.26b * (1 - 27.68%))
Current Ratio = 0.69 (Total Current Assets 764.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.11b)
Debt / Equity = 2.22 (Debt 7.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.48b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.85 (Net Debt 7.70b / EBITDA 2.71b)
Debt / FCF = 4.09 (Net Debt 7.70b / FCF TTM 1.88b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.68b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.90% (Net Income 619.1m / Total Assets 15.7b)
RoE = 16.83% (Net Income TTM 619.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.68b)
RoCE = 11.35% (EBIT 1.26b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.68b + L.T.Debt 7.45b))
RoIC = 6.14% (NOPAT 913.0m / Invested Capital 14.9b)
WACC = 5.06% (E(5.02b)/V(12.7b) * Re(7.0%) + D(7.71b)/V(12.7b) * Rd(5.24%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 7.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.31 | Cagr: -8.65%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.72b ; Y1≈1.97b ; Y5≈2.91b
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.32 (EV 43.7b - Net Debt 7.70b = Equity 36.0b / Shares 675.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.17 | EPS CAGR: 23.39% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 51.13 | Revenue CAGR: 2.16% | SUE: 1.84 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.92 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+3.6% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+6.8% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=9, down=2)