ADT Stock Analysis: ADT | NYSE
Security & Protection Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.008m USD | 12M Return: -17.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 61.8M
EPS Trend: 94.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -9.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ADT Inc. is a U.S.-based provider of residential and small business security, interactive, and smart home solutions, offering burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, video surveillance, home automation systems, and personal emergency response (PERS) products. The company combines professionally installed and DIY offerings with an in-house platform (the ADT+ app), a neighbor-access feature called Trusted Neighbor, and a network of monitoring centers that provide 24/7 professional monitoring services. Products are sold under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands through a multi-channel distribution model that includes referrals, door-to-door sales, retail and e-commerce, field sales and service offices, and third-party independent and authorized dealers. Founded in 1874 and headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, ADT was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. before adopting its current name in September 2017, and it completed its IPO on the NYSE in January 2018.
The company operates within the consumer discretionary / specialized consumer services segment, and its business model is centered on long-term monitoring subscriptions paired with hardware sales and service revenue, a structure that typically generates recurring monthly revenue and high customer switching costs due to multi-year contracts and installed equipment. The residential security and smart home industry is characterized by competition between traditional professionally monitored providers like ADT and lower-cost DIY/IoT-focused entrants, with growth driven by rising consumer adoption of connected home devices and demand for personal safety, aging-in-place, and small-business protection solutions.
- Commercial unit sale to Securitas funds debt reduction
- Subscriber churn pressures recurring monthly revenue growth
- Ring and SimpliSafe DIY competition pressures market share
| Net Income: 623.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.27% < 20% (prev -5.22%; Δ 1.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 2.06b > Net Income 623.3m |
| Net Debt (7.57b) to EBITDA (2.84b): 2.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (877.0m) vs 12m ago -5.30% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.38% > 18% (prev 50.29%; Δ 0.09% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 32.38% > 50% (prev 31.43%; Δ 0.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.27b / Interest Expense TTM 407.0m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 899.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.07b) / Total Assets 15.9b |
| B: -0.17 (Retained Earnings -2.78b / Total Assets 15.9b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.27b / Avg Total Assets 15.9b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 3.80b / Total Liabilities 12.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.23 = B |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 368.0m/395.3m, Revenue 5.14b/4.98b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 50.29% / 50.38%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.93 / AQ_t-1 0.74) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 5.14b / 4.98b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 623.3m - CFO 2.06b) / TA 15.9b) |
| Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 6.73 with a total of 7,944,727 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.54%, over one month by +1.74%, over three months by -0.79% and over the past year by -17.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 6.50 (which is 3.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
ADT has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ADT.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 8.2 | 21.2% |
P/E Trailing = 8.9868
P/E Forward = 7.3855
P/S = 0.9744
P/B = 1.345
Revenue TTM = 5.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.27b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.36b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 309.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.69b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.3m
Net Debt = 7.57b USD (calculated: Debt 7.69b - CCE 119.0m)
Enterprise Value = 12.6b USD (5.01b + Debt 7.69b - CCE 119.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.13 (Ebit TTM 1.27b / Interest Expense TTM 407.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.04x (Enterprise Value 12.6b / FCF TTM 1.79b)
FCF Yield = 14.21% (FCF TTM 1.79b / Enterprise Value 12.6b)
FCF Margin = 34.78% (FCF TTM 1.79b / Revenue TTM 5.14b)
Net Margin = 12.13% (Net Income TTM 623.3m / Revenue TTM 5.14b)
Gross Margin = 50.38% ((Revenue TTM 5.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.55b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.03% (prev 49.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.79 (Enterprise Value 12.6b / Total Assets 15.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.29% (Interest Expense 407.0m / Debt 7.69b)
Taxrate = 27.65% (239.9m / 867.6m)
NOPAT = 922.2m (EBIT 1.27b * (1 - 27.65%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 899.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.07b)
Debt / Equity = 2.02 (Debt 7.69b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.67 (Net Debt 7.57b / EBITDA 2.84b)
Debt / FCF = 4.23 (Net Debt 7.57b / FCF TTM 1.79b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.72b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.93% (Net Income 623.3m / Total Assets 15.9b)
RoE = 16.74% (Net Income TTM 623.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.72b)
RoCE = 11.50% (EBIT 1.27b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.72b + L.T.Debt 7.36b))
RoIC = 6.13% (NOPAT 922.2m / Invested Capital 15.0b)
WACC = 5.51% (E(5.01b)/V(12.7b) * Re(8.08%) + D(7.69b)/V(12.7b) * Rd(5.29%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 8.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -4.56%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.60b ; Y1≈1.84b ; Y5≈2.71b
[DCF] Fair Price = 48.90 (EV 40.7b - Net Debt 7.57b = Equity 33.2b / Shares 678.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.80 | EPS CAGR: 27.55% | SUE: 1.85 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -9.83 | Revenue CAGR: -0.58% | SUE: 0.97 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=-3.42% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+2.7% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+6.0% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +15% (up=10, down=7)