(ADT) ADT - Overview
Stock: Security, Automation, Monitoring, Cameras, Alarms
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.63% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.96% |
| Payout Consistency | 82.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 34.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.34 |
| Alpha | -1.35 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.665 |
| Beta Downside | 0.528 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.41% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.05 |
Description: ADT ADT January 06, 2026
ADT Inc. (NYSE:ADT) delivers a portfolio of security, interactive, and smart-home solutions across the United States, covering burglar and life-safety alarms, smart cameras, environmental sensors, and personal emergency response services. Its offerings are sold under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands to residential customers, renters, and small-business owners through a mix of direct sales, door-to-door outreach, dealer networks, and field service offices.
Beyond traditional monitoring, ADT now integrates third-party hardware such as Google Nest doorbells, mesh Wi-Fi, and indoor/outdoor cameras, and provides a DIY self-setup line for cost-conscious consumers. The Trusted Neighbor program enables customers to grant limited home access via the ADT+ app, while its web-based portal and mobile applications allow remote automation and real-time monitoring.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023): revenue of roughly $5.1 billion, a modest 2% year-over-year increase, and an installed subscriber base of about 3.5 million homes and businesses, with an estimated churn rate near 7%. The smart-home segment is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of ~10% through 2029, driven by rising consumer demand for integrated security and energy-management solutions.
Macro-level drivers include discretionary spending trends tied to U.S. consumer confidence and interest-rate environments, as well as regulatory emphasis on fire- and carbon-monoxide detection, which can boost demand for ADT’s life-safety services.
For a deeper dive into ADT’s valuation and risk profile, you might explore the analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 640.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -9.58% < 20% (prev -5.04%; Δ -4.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 1.97b > Net Income 640.6m |
| Net Debt (7.74b) to EBITDA (2.86b): 2.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (883.2m) vs 12m ago -8.76% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 49.36% > 18% (prev 0.51%; Δ 4885 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.89% > 50% (prev 29.91%; Δ 1.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.99 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.86b / Interest Expense TTM 418.0m) |
Altman Z'' -0.55
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 988.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.48b) / Total Assets 15.98b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -3.01b / Total Assets 15.98b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.25b / Avg Total Assets 16.03b) |
| D: -0.24 (Book Value of Equity -3.01b / Total Liabilities 12.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.55 = B |
Beneish M -2.92
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 400.0m/396.9m, Revenue 5.11b/4.81b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 49.36% / 51.31%) |
| AQI: 1.27 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.73) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 5.11b / 4.81b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 640.6m - CFO 1.97b) / TA 15.98b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ADT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.88%, over one month by -1.59%, over three months by -0.43% and over the past year by +9.99%.
Is ADT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.5 | 17.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.5 | 17.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.4 | 4% |
ADT Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.1633
P/S = 1.2832
P/B = 1.8104
Revenue TTM = 5.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.25b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.86b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.28b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 522.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.81b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.74b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.30b USD (6.56b + Debt 7.81b - CCE 62.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.99 (Ebit TTM 1.25b / Interest Expense TTM 418.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.45x (Enterprise Value 14.30b / FCF TTM 1.69b)
FCF Yield = 11.84% (FCF TTM 1.69b / Enterprise Value 14.30b)
FCF Margin = 33.13% (FCF TTM 1.69b / Revenue TTM 5.11b)
Net Margin = 12.53% (Net Income TTM 640.6m / Revenue TTM 5.11b)
Gross Margin = 49.36% ((Revenue TTM 5.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.95% (prev 49.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 14.30b / Total Assets 15.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.27% (Interest Expense 99.3m / Debt 7.81b)
Taxrate = 27.75% (55.1m / 198.6m)
NOPAT = 903.5m (EBIT 1.25b * (1 - 27.75%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 988.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.48b)
Debt / Equity = 2.13 (Debt 7.81b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.70 (Net Debt 7.74b / EBITDA 2.86b)
Debt / FCF = 4.57 (Net Debt 7.74b / FCF TTM 1.69b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.68b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.00% (Net Income 640.6m / Total Assets 15.98b)
RoE = 17.39% (Net Income TTM 640.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.68b)
RoCE = 11.40% (EBIT 1.25b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.68b + L.T.Debt 7.28b))
RoIC = 7.88% (NOPAT 903.5m / Invested Capital 11.47b)
WACC = 4.32% (E(6.56b)/V(14.37b) * Re(8.37%) + D(7.81b)/V(14.37b) * Rd(1.27%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 8.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.78%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈1.46b ; Y1≈1.80b ; Y5≈3.06b
Fair Price DCF = 106.5 (EV 89.21b - Net Debt 7.74b = Equity 81.47b / Shares 765.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 47.05 | EPS CAGR: 13.82% | SUE: -3.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -59.04 | Revenue CAGR: -1.64% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+7.3% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%