(ADT) ADT - Ratings and Ratios
Security, Automation, Monitoring, Cameras, Alarms
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.73% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.08% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.96% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 26.5% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.64% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.70 |
| Alpha | 8.14 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.346 |
| Beta | 0.645 |
| Beta Downside | 0.507 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.34% |
| Mean DD | 22.32% |
| Median DD | 22.69% |
Description: ADT ADT November 03, 2025
ADT Inc. (NYSE:ADT) delivers a portfolio of security, interactive, and smart-home solutions across the United States, ranging from burglar and life-safety alarms to AI-enabled cameras, environmental sensors, and personal emergency response systems. Its offerings are marketed under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands and are sold to homeowners, renters, and small-business owners through a mix of direct door-to-door sales, field offices, independent dealers, and referral networks.
Key operational metrics show the business is scaling its recurring-revenue model: as of Q3 2024, ADT reported a 5.2% year-over-year increase in total contract subscriptions, with average revenue per user (ARPU) climbing to $78, driven in part by higher-margin smart-home add-ons. The company’s growth is also linked to macro trends such as rising consumer spending on home automation (projected CAGR ≈ 9% through 2028) and a tightening labor market that fuels demand for professional installation services.
Looking ahead, ADT’s exposure to the broader “connected home” sector makes it sensitive to technology adoption cycles and regulatory changes around data privacy and emergency-response standards; a material shift in either direction could materially affect its top line.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of ADT’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (640.6m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 306.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.11 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.73pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -9.58% (prev -5.04%; Δ -4.54pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.97b > Net Income 640.6m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (7.74b) to EBITDA (2.86b) ratio: 2.70 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.67 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (883.2m) change vs 12m ago -8.76% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 49.36% (prev 51.31%; Δ -1.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 31.89% (prev 29.91%; Δ 1.98pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.99 (EBITDA TTM 2.86b / Interest Expense TTM 418.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.55
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 988.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.48b) / Total Assets 15.98b |
| (B) -0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -3.01b / Total Assets 15.98b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 1.25b / Avg Total Assets 16.03b |
| (D) -0.24 = Book Value of Equity -3.01b / Total Liabilities 12.32b |
| Total Rating: -0.55 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.50
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 11.75% |
| 3. FCF Margin 33.13% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.13 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.70 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.52)% |
| 7. RoE 17.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -59.04% |
| 9. EPS Trend 86.63% |
What is the price of ADT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.98%, over one month by +2.85%, over three months by -5.42% and over the past year by +21.81%.
Is ADT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.5 | 17.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.5 | 17.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.6 | 6.2% |
ADT Fundamental Data Overview December 23, 2025
P/E Trailing = 11.137
P/E Forward = 8.2102
P/S = 1.304
P/B = 1.8216
Beta = 0.947
Revenue TTM = 5.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.25b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.86b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.28b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 522.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.81b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.74b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.41b USD (6.67b + Debt 7.81b - CCE 62.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.99 (Ebit TTM 1.25b / Interest Expense TTM 418.0m)
FCF Yield = 11.75% (FCF TTM 1.69b / Enterprise Value 14.41b)
FCF Margin = 33.13% (FCF TTM 1.69b / Revenue TTM 5.11b)
Net Margin = 12.53% (Net Income TTM 640.6m / Revenue TTM 5.11b)
Gross Margin = 49.36% ((Revenue TTM 5.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.95% (prev 49.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 14.41b / Total Assets 15.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.27% (Interest Expense 99.3m / Debt 7.81b)
Taxrate = 27.75% (55.1m / 198.6m)
NOPAT = 903.5m (EBIT 1.25b * (1 - 27.75%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 988.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.48b)
Debt / Equity = 2.13 (Debt 7.81b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.70 (Net Debt 7.74b / EBITDA 2.86b)
Debt / FCF = 4.57 (Net Debt 7.74b / FCF TTM 1.69b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.68b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.01% (Net Income 640.6m / Total Assets 15.98b)
RoE = 17.39% (Net Income TTM 640.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.68b)
RoCE = 11.40% (EBIT 1.25b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.68b + L.T.Debt 7.28b))
RoIC = 7.88% (NOPAT 903.5m / Invested Capital 11.47b)
WACC = 4.36% (E(6.67b)/V(14.47b) * Re(8.39%) + D(7.81b)/V(14.47b) * Rd(1.27%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.78%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.33% ; FCFE base≈1.46b ; Y1≈1.80b ; Y5≈3.07b
Fair Price DCF = 63.80 (DCF Value 48.81b / Shares Outstanding 765.0m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 86.63 | EPS CAGR: 113.7% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -59.04 | Revenue CAGR: -1.64% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+7.3% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%
Additional Sources for ADT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle