(AEO) American Eagle Outfitters - Ratings and Ratios
Jeans, Apparel, Intimates, Activewear, Accessories
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.02% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.12% |
| Payout Consistency | 85.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 43.1% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 81.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.51% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 |
| Alpha | 28.29 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.38 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.526 |
| Beta | 1.680 |
| Beta Downside | 1.122 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.13% |
| Mean DD | 23.76% |
| Median DD | 21.27% |
Description: AEO American Eagle Outfitters November 10, 2025
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO) is a multi-brand specialty retailer headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, offering denim, apparel, accessories, and personal-care products for men and women under the American Eagle brand, intimates and activewear under Aerie and OFFLINE by Aerie, menswear via Todd Snyder New York, and fashion pieces through Unsubscribed. The company distributes its merchandise through company-owned and licensed stores, shop-within-shop concessions, wholesale channels, and a suite of digital platforms including ae.com, aerie.com, toddsnyder.com and unsubscribed.com.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately $4.5 billion, with comparable-store sales up about 5 % year-over-year and Aerie contributing a 10 % sales acceleration driven by its inclusive sizing and marketing strategy. Digital sales now account for roughly 30 % of total revenue, reflecting the broader apparel-retail shift toward e-commerce, while operating margin hovered near 6 % despite inflationary pressure on raw-material costs. The U.S. teen and young-adult consumer segment, which drives the bulk of AEO’s traffic, remains sensitive to discretionary-spending trends and employment-rate fluctuations.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of AEO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (208.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 320.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.76pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 10.15% (prev 8.98%; Δ 1.17pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 424.0m > Net Income 208.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.86b) to EBITDA (515.5m) ratio: 3.60 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.63 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (172.9m) change vs 12m ago -11.71% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 32.93% (prev 35.18%; Δ -2.24pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 134.8% (prev 144.6%; Δ -9.85pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 72.15 (EBITDA TTM 515.5m / Interest Expense TTM 4.06m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.29
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 1.40b - Total Current Liabilities 854.8m) / Total Assets 4.19b |
| (B) 0.59 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.49b / Total Assets 4.19b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 293.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.96b |
| (D) 0.96 = Book Value of Equity 2.46b / Total Liabilities 2.56b |
| Total Rating: 4.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 60.88
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.74% |
| 3. FCF Margin 5.42% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.21 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.60 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.04)% |
| 7. RoE 13.00% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 11.48% |
| 9. EPS Trend 14.75% |
What is the price of AEO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.26%, over one month by +42.95%, over three months by +39.98% and over the past year by +52.77%.
Is AEO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AEO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.1 | -9.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.1 | -9.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27.9 | 9.6% |
AEO Fundamental Data Overview December 13, 2025
P/E Trailing = 22.1858
P/E Forward = 16.6945
P/S = 0.7957
P/B = 2.6146
P/EG = 38.27
Beta = 1.419
Revenue TTM = 5.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 293.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 515.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 210.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 319.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.97b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.86b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.11b USD (4.25b + Debt 1.97b - CCE 112.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 72.15 (Ebit TTM 293.2m / Interest Expense TTM 4.06m)
FCF Yield = 4.74% (FCF TTM 289.5m / Enterprise Value 6.11b)
FCF Margin = 5.42% (FCF TTM 289.5m / Revenue TTM 5.34b)
Net Margin = 3.90% (Net Income TTM 208.4m / Revenue TTM 5.34b)
Gross Margin = 32.93% ((Revenue TTM 5.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.61% (prev 34.69%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.46 (Enterprise Value 6.11b / Total Assets 4.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 2.14m / Debt 1.97b)
Taxrate = 26.68% (33.2m / 124.6m)
NOPAT = 214.9m (EBIT 293.2m * (1 - 26.68%))
Current Ratio = 1.63 (Total Current Assets 1.40b / Total Current Liabilities 854.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 1.97b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.63b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.60 (Net Debt 1.86b / EBITDA 515.5m)
Debt / FCF = 6.42 (Net Debt 1.86b / FCF TTM 289.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.97% (Net Income 208.4m / Total Assets 4.19b)
RoE = 13.00% (Net Income TTM 208.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.60b)
RoCE = 16.17% (EBIT 293.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.60b + L.T.Debt 210.0m))
RoIC = 12.40% (NOPAT 214.9m / Invested Capital 1.73b)
WACC = 8.36% (E(4.25b)/V(6.22b) * Re(12.20%) + D(1.97b)/V(6.22b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 12.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.65%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.14% ; FCFE base≈250.6m ; Y1≈175.9m ; Y5≈92.0m
Fair Price DCF = 6.09 (DCF Value 1.03b / Shares Outstanding 169.5m; 5y FCF grow -34.97% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 14.75 | EPS CAGR: 11.70% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 11.48 | Revenue CAGR: -2.66% | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=+0.044 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=+0.220 | Revisions Net=+10 | Growth EPS=+21.1% | Growth Revenue=+3.2%
Additional Sources for AEO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle