AEO Stock Analysis: American Eagle Outfitters | NYSE
Apparel Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.968m USD | 12M Return: 24.1% | US02553E1064 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 93.9M
EPS Trend: -5.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 78.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is a U.S.-based multi-brand specialty retailer operating both domestically and internationally. Its portfolio includes the flagship American Eagle brand (jeans, apparel, accessories, and personal care), the Aerie and OFFLINE by Aerie brands (intimates, activewear, and swim), Todd Snyder New York (menswear), and Unsubscribed (fashion apparel and accessories). The company distributes through company-owned and licensed retail stores, concession-based shop-in-shop formats, wholesale channels, and digital platforms including ae.com, aerie.com, toddsnyder.com, and unsubscribed.com. Founded in 1977 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, AEO has been publicly traded on the NYSE since 1994.
The company sits within the Consumer Discretionary sectors Apparel Retail sub-industry, a category characterized by intense competition, fickle consumer trends, and heavy reliance on inventory and brand positioning. AEOs multi-brand portfolio approach is a common strategy among specialty apparel retailers seeking to diversify revenue streams and capture distinct customer segments (for example, Aerie targets the intimates and activewear market with a body-positive marketing positioning).
- Aerie comparable sales growth outpaces core American Eagle brand
- Tariff exposure on Asian sourcing pressures gross margins
- Back-to-school denim demand and mall traffic recovery
| Net Income: 336.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.73% < 20% (prev 9.26%; Δ -0.53% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 238.1m > Net Income 336.9m |
| Net Debt (1.77b) to EBITDA (693.5m): 2.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (170.2m) vs 12m ago -0.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.23% > 18% (prev 32.94%; Δ 4.29% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 136.7% > 50% (prev 129.7%; Δ 6.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.44 > 6 (EBIT TTM 484.1m / Interest Expense TTM 57.4m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.34b - Total Current Liabilities 839.4m) / Total Assets 4.28b |
| B: 0.63 (Retained Earnings 2.68b / Total Assets 4.28b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 484.1m / Avg Total Assets 4.17b) |
| D: 0.70 (Book Value of Equity 1.76b / Total Liabilities 2.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.32 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 245.2m/237.4m, Revenue 5.70b/5.27b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 32.94% / 37.23%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 5.70b / 5.27b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 336.9m - CFO 238.1m) / TA 4.28b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.17 with a total of 4,401,056 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.32%, over one month by +8.33%, over three months by +10.52% and over the past year by +24.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.80 (which is 7.5% or 2 ATR below the current price).
American Eagle Outfitters has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.07. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AEO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.6 | 2.1% |
P/E Trailing = 9.1289
P/E Forward = 11.2867
P/S = 0.5162
P/B = 1.5125
P/EG = 3.3395
Revenue TTM = 5.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 484.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 693.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 55.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 309.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.92b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 1.87b already included)
Net Debt = 1.77b USD (calculated: Debt 1.92b - CCE 148.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.74b USD (2.97b + Debt 1.92b - CCE 148.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.44 (Ebit TTM 484.1m / Interest Expense TTM 57.4m)
EV/FCF = 28.14x (Enterprise Value 4.74b / FCF TTM 168.5m)
FCF Yield = 3.55% (FCF TTM 168.5m / Enterprise Value 4.74b)
FCF Margin = 2.96% (FCF TTM 168.5m / Revenue TTM 5.70b)
Net Margin = 5.91% (Net Income TTM 336.9m / Revenue TTM 5.70b)
Gross Margin = 37.23% ((Revenue TTM 5.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.90% (prev 33.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 4.74b / Total Assets 4.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.99% (Interest Expense 57.4m / Debt 1.92b)
Taxrate = 24.72% (108.9m / 440.5m)
NOPAT = 364.4m (EBIT 484.1m * (1 - 24.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.59 (Total Current Assets 1.34b / Total Current Liabilities 839.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.09 (Debt 1.92b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.56 (Net Debt 1.77b / EBITDA 693.5m)
Debt / FCF = 10.52 (Net Debt 1.77b / FCF TTM 168.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.68b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.08% (Net Income 336.9m / Total Assets 4.28b)
RoE = 20.04% (Net Income TTM 336.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.68b)
RoCE = 27.88% (EBIT 484.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.68b + L.T.Debt 55.0m))
RoIC = 10.12% (NOPAT 364.4m / Invested Capital 3.60b)
WACC = 7.15% (E(2.97b)/V(4.89b) * Re(10.32%) + D(1.92b)/V(4.89b) * Rd(2.99%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 10.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.40 | Cagr: -7.19%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈214.8m ; Y1≈188.3m ; Y5≈152.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 4.00 (EV 2.44b - Net Debt 1.77b = Equity 669.8m / Shares 167.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -5.88 | EPS CAGR: -1.51% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 77.99 | Revenue CAGR: 2.69% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=-6.11% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=2.28 | Chg30d=+30.84% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+108.9% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=+4.03% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-16.7% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +55% (up=7, down=1)