AEO Stock Analysis: American Eagle Outfitters | NYSE
Apparel Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.758m USD | 12M Return: 72.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 84.2M
EPS Trend: 42.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 78.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE: AEO) is a U.S.-based multi-brand specialty retailer founded in 1977 and headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The company sells jeans, apparel, accessories, and personal care products through four distinct brand lines: American Eagle (womens and mens casual wear), Aerie and OFFLINE by Aerie (intimates, activewear, and swim), Todd Snyder New York (menswear), and Unsubscribed (fashion clothing and accessories). This brand portfolio strategy is common in apparel retail, where operators target multiple consumer segments-typically younger, lifestyle, and premium customers-through differentiated labels rather than a single banner.
The company distributes products through a diversified channel mix that includes company-owned and licensed retail stores, concession-based shop-in-shops, wholesale markets, online marketplaces, and dedicated digital platforms (ae.com, aerie.com, toddsnyder.com, and unsubscribed.com). Operating within the GICS Apparel Retail sub-industry of Consumer Discretionary, AEO exemplifies the omni-channel model now standard in the sector, combining physical retail presence with direct-to-consumer e-commerce to reach both U.S. and international customers. The company has been publicly traded since its 1994 IPO and is currently classified as a mid-cap stock.
- Aerie comparable sales lead consolidated revenue growth
- China apparel tariffs pressure merchandise gross margins
- Mall foot traffic recovery boosts back-to-school comparable sales
| Net Income: 280.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.80% < 20% (prev 5.69%; Δ 2.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 84.4m > Net Income 280.4m |
| Net Debt (1.77b) to EBITDA (591.9m): 2.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (172.3m) vs 12m ago -4.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.76% > 18% (prev 32.92%; Δ 1.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 142.8% > 50% (prev 140.0%; Δ 2.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 30.86 > 6 (EBIT TTM 376.0m / Interest Expense TTM 12.2m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.24b - Total Current Liabilities 801.6m) / Total Assets 4.08b |
| B: 0.63 (Retained Earnings 2.57b / Total Assets 4.08b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 376.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.92b) |
| D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 1.64b / Total Liabilities 2.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.10 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 200.8m/228.6m, Revenue 5.60b/5.27b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 32.92% / 34.76%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 5.60b / 5.27b) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 280.4m - CFO 84.4m) / TA 4.08b) |
| Beneish M = -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.81 with a total of 2,175,545 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.90%, over one month by -3.38%, over three months by -7.55% and over the past year by +72.80%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.20 (which is 9.6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
American Eagle Outfitters has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.09. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AEO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.7 | 17% |
P/E Trailing = 10.3522
P/E Forward = 11.6686
P/S = 0.4879
P/B = 1.7617
P/EG = 3.3395
Revenue TTM = 5.60b USD
EBIT TTM = 376.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 591.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 85.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 310.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.87b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 1.79b already included)
Net Debt = 1.77b USD (calculated: Debt 1.87b - CCE 103.3m)
Enterprise Value = 4.53b USD (2.76b + Debt 1.87b - CCE 103.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 30.86 (Ebit TTM 376.0m / Interest Expense TTM 12.2m)
EV/FCF = 303.2x (Enterprise Value 4.53b / FCF TTM 14.9m)
FCF Yield = 0.33% (FCF TTM 14.9m / Enterprise Value 4.53b)
FCF Margin = 0.27% (FCF TTM 14.9m / Revenue TTM 5.60b)
Net Margin = 5.01% (Net Income TTM 280.4m / Revenue TTM 5.60b)
Gross Margin = 34.76% ((Revenue TTM 5.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.66b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.86% (prev 33.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 4.53b / Total Assets 4.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.65% (Interest Expense 12.2m / Debt 1.87b)
Taxrate = 24.26% (88.2m / 363.8m)
NOPAT = 284.8m (EBIT 376.0m * (1 - 24.26%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 1.24b / Total Current Liabilities 801.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.14 (Debt 1.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.99 (Net Debt 1.77b / EBITDA 591.9m)
Debt / FCF = 118.6 (Net Debt 1.77b / FCF TTM 14.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.63b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.15% (Net Income 280.4m / Total Assets 4.08b)
RoE = 17.24% (Net Income TTM 280.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.63b)
RoCE = 21.97% (EBIT 376.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.63b + L.T.Debt 85.0m))
RoIC = 8.17% (NOPAT 284.8m / Invested Capital 3.49b)
WACC = 6.47% (E(2.76b)/V(4.63b) * Re(10.54%) + D(1.87b)/V(4.63b) * Rd(0.65%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -75.02 | Cagr: -5.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈93.9m ; Y1≈82.3m ; Y5≈66.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.07b - Net Debt 1.77b = -703.7m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 41.96 | EPS CAGR: 9.30% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.97 | Revenue CAGR: 2.66% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-29.53% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+3.98% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.71 | Chg30d=-1.16% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+56.9% | GrowthRev=+5.5%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.82 | Chg30d=-4.38% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+6.4% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=6, down=6)