AES Stock Analysis: The AES | NYSE
Utilities - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.509m USD | 12M Return: 15.4% | US00130H1059 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 98.2M
EPS Trend: 79.7%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -13.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The AES Corporation is a U.S.-based power generation and utility company that operates across four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. It generates and sells electricity using a diverse fuel mix that includes solar, hydro, wind, coal, gas, energy storage, and landfill gas, and serves wholesale customers, end-users, and intermediaries across multiple regions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company was incorporated in 1981 (formerly Applied Energy Services, Inc.) and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
As an independent power producer and energy trader, AES operates in a hybrid model that combines merchant generation-where electricity is sold on competitive wholesale markets-with regulated utility operations in select jurisdictions, a structure that exposes the business to both market-driven pricing and stable rate-based returns. Its inclusion in the GICS Utilities sub-industry reflects its regulated distribution arm, while the diverse international footprint gives it geographic diversification beyond its U.S. base.
- AI data center demand boosts power sales outlook
- Renewable capacity expansion drives long-term earnings growth
- Latin America exposure pressures earnings from currency volatility
| Net Income: 1.91b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.66% < 20% (prev -11.29%; Δ -5.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 5.03b > Net Income 1.91b |
| Net Debt (30.3b) to EBITDA (4.51b): 6.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (715.0m) vs 12m ago 0.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.29% > 18% (prev 16.91%; Δ 3.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.40% > 50% (prev 24.79%; Δ 0.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.33b / Interest Expense TTM 1.44b) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 6.40b - Total Current Liabilities 8.58b) / Total Assets 54.2b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.43b / Total Assets 54.2b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 2.33b / Avg Total Assets 51.4b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 4.94b / Total Liabilities 41.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.25 = B |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 1.93b/1.86b, Revenue 13.1b/12.0b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 16.91% / 20.29%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 13.1b / 12.0b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.91b - CFO 5.03b) / TA 54.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.74 with a total of 9,090,310 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.07%, over one month by +0.41%, over three months by +1.47% and over the past year by +15.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.60 (which is 0.9% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
The AES has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.18. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AES.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15 | 1.8% |
P/E Trailing = 5.5169
P/E Forward = 6.8306
P/S = 0.805
P/B = 2.1293
P/EG = 1.0921
Revenue TTM = 13.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.51b USD
Long Term Debt = 28.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.46b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 30.3b USD (calculated: Debt 32.1b - CCE 1.85b)
Enterprise Value = 40.8b USD (10.5b + Debt 32.1b - CCE 1.85b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.61 (Ebit TTM 2.33b / Interest Expense TTM 1.44b)
EV/FCF = -23.71x (Enterprise Value 40.8b / FCF TTM -1.72b)
FCF Yield = -4.22% (FCF TTM -1.72b / Enterprise Value 40.8b)
FCF Margin = -13.18% (FCF TTM -1.72b / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Net Margin = 14.62% (Net Income TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Gross Margin = 20.29% ((Revenue TTM 13.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.22% (prev 20.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 40.8b / Total Assets 54.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.49% (Interest Expense 1.44b / Debt 32.1b)
Taxrate = 5.78% (69.0m / 1.19b)
NOPAT = 2.19b (EBIT 2.33b * (1 - 5.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 6.40b / Total Current Liabilities 8.58b)
Debt / Equity = 6.50 (Debt 32.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.71 (Net Debt 30.3b / EBITDA 4.51b)
Debt / FCF = -17.60 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 30.3b / FCF TTM -1.72b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.71% (Net Income 1.91b / Total Assets 54.2b)
RoE = 37.94% (Net Income TTM 1.91b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.03b)
RoCE = 6.91% (EBIT 2.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.03b + L.T.Debt 28.7b))
RoIC = 4.52% (NOPAT 2.19b / Invested Capital 48.5b)
WACC = 5.42% (E(10.5b)/V(42.6b) * Re(9.06%) + D(32.1b)/V(42.6b) * Rd(4.49%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 81.93 | Cagr: 0.19%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.72b)
EPS Correlation: 79.73 | EPS CAGR: 17.12% | SUE: -1.59 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -13.78 | Revenue CAGR: -0.37% | SUE: 2.49 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=-9.88% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.02 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+60.3% | GrowthRev=+17.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.38 | Chg30d=-0.08% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=-6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)