AES Stock Analysis: The AES | NYSE

Solar Power, Wind Energy, Energy Storage, Electric Distribution

Total Rating 41

Safety 65

Buy Signal 0.55

Utilities - Diversified
Industry Rotation: +8.7

Market Cap: 10.7B
Avg Turnover: 131M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility3.43%

VaR 5^th Pctl0.55%

VaR vs Median-1.76%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.20

Rel. Str. IBD58.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group92.1 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.851

Beta Downside0.729

Hurst Exponent0.511

Choppyness17.6%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD53.33%

CAGR/Max DD0.15

CAGR/Mean DD0.30

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 17.12%
EPS Trend: 79.7%

Last SUE: -1.59
Qual. Beats: -1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -0.37%
Rev. Trend: -13.8%

Last SUE: 2.49
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

High Debt While Negative Cash Flow

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.4% 29

Feb +0.3% 5

Mar -0.1% 5

Apr -1.1% 31

May +2.0% 8

Jun +1.5% 5

Jul +0.6% 20

Aug -1.2% 29

Sep -0.8% 16

Oct +0.9% 26

Nov +0.5% 0

Dec +1.0% 25

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AES The AES

The AES Corporation is a U.S.-based power generation and utility company that operates across four segments: Renewables, Utilities, Energy Infrastructure, and New Energy Technologies. It generates and sells electricity using a diverse mix of fuels and technologies, including solar, hydro, wind, coal, gas, energy storage, and landfill gas, serving utilities, industrial users, wholesale markets, and end-user customers in the residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental sectors. The company owns and/or operates a generation portfolio of approximately 34,740 megawatts and distributes power to 2.7 million customers across the United States, Latin America (Chile, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico, Panama, Colombia, Argentina, Puerto Rico), Bulgaria, Vietnam, and Jordan. Originally incorporated in 1981 as Applied Energy Services, Inc., the company adopted its current name in April 2000 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.

As an independent power producer, AES typically generates revenue through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities and other offtakers, which provide relatively stable cash flows and help finance large capital projects. The companys GICS classification as an Independent Power Producer & Energy Trader reflects its dual role as both a generator and a participant in wholesale electricity markets, where it can trade power to balance supply and demand across its diversified geographic footprint.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Data center power demand boosts Energy Infrastructure backlog
Renewables pipeline expansion accelerates long-term capacity additions
Latin America currency and political risk pressures international margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0

Net Income: 1.91b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.08 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -16.66% < 20% (prev -11.29%; Δ -5.37% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 5.03b > Net Income 1.91b
Net Debt (30.3b) to EBITDA (3.96b): 7.64 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (715.0m) vs 12m ago 0.42% < -2%
Gross Margin: 20.29% > 18% (prev 16.91%; Δ 3.38% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 25.40% > 50% (prev 24.79%; Δ 0.62% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.33b / Interest Expense TTM 1.44b)

Altman Z'' 0.25

A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 6.40b - Total Current Liabilities 8.58b) / Total Assets 54.2b
B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.43b / Total Assets 54.2b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 2.33b / Avg Total Assets 51.4b)
D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 4.94b / Total Liabilities 41.4b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.25 = B

Beneish M -3.24

DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 1.93b/1.86b, Revenue 13.1b/12.0b)
GMI: 0.83 (GM 16.91% / 20.29%)
AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.15)
SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 13.1b / 12.0b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.91b - CFO 5.03b) / TA 54.2b)
Beneish M = -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of AES shares?

As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.95 with a total of 13,176,882 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.07%, over one month by +0.67%, over three months by +2.43% and over the past year by +7.64%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.80 (which is 1% or 3 ATR below the current price).

Is AES a buy, sell or hold?

The AES has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AES.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 0
Hold: 9
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AES price?

Analysts Target Price	15	0.3%

The AES (AES) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 10.7b (10.7b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 5.6316
P/E Forward = 6.5833
P/S = 0.8184
P/B = 2.138
P/EG = 1.0921
Revenue TTM = 13.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.96b USD
Long Term Debt = 28.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.46b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 30.3b USD (calculated: Debt 32.1b - CCE 1.85b)
Enterprise Value = 40.9b USD (10.7b + Debt 32.1b - CCE 1.85b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.61 (Ebit TTM 2.33b / Interest Expense TTM 1.44b)
EV/FCF = -23.81x (Enterprise Value 40.9b / FCF TTM -1.72b)
FCF Yield = -4.20% (FCF TTM -1.72b / Enterprise Value 40.9b)
FCF Margin = -13.18% (FCF TTM -1.72b / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Net Margin = 14.62% (Net Income TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Gross Margin = 20.29% ((Revenue TTM 13.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.22% (prev 20.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 40.9b / Total Assets 54.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.49% (Interest Expense 1.44b / Debt 32.1b)
Taxrate = 5.78% (69.0m / 1.19b)
NOPAT = 2.19b (EBIT 2.33b * (1 - 5.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 6.40b / Total Current Liabilities 8.58b)
Debt / Equity = 6.50 (Debt 32.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.64 (Net Debt 30.3b / EBITDA 3.96b)
Debt / FCF = -17.60 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 30.3b / FCF TTM -1.72b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.71% (Net Income 1.91b / Total Assets 54.2b)
RoE = 37.94% (Net Income TTM 1.91b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.03b)
RoCE = 6.91% (EBIT 2.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.03b + L.T.Debt 28.7b))
RoIC = 4.52% (NOPAT 2.19b / Invested Capital 48.5b)
WACC = 5.30% (E(10.7b)/V(42.8b) * Re(8.50%) + D(32.1b)/V(42.8b) * Rd(4.49%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 8.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 81.93 | Cagr: 0.19%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -1.72b)
EPS Correlation: 79.73 | EPS CAGR: 17.12% | SUE: -1.59 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -13.78 | Revenue CAGR: -0.37% | SUE: 2.49 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+27.35% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.30 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1.8% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+3.1% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=1, down=1)