(AES) The AES - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Renewables, Utilities, Storage
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 65.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.35 |
| Alpha | -7.47 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.269 |
| Beta | 1.069 |
| Beta Downside | 1.319 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.43% |
| Mean DD | 38.48% |
| Median DD | 39.85% |
Description: AES The AES November 04, 2025
The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) is a vertically integrated power generation and utility firm that develops, owns, and operates a diversified mix of generation assets-including coal, natural-gas, hydro, wind, solar, biomass, energy-storage, and landfill-gas facilities-to sell electricity to utilities, industrial customers, and end-users across the United States and select international markets.
Its generation portfolio totals roughly 32 GW of capacity, serving about 2.7 million customers through both wholesale power sales and regulated distribution operations. The company’s legacy dates to 1981 (originally Applied Energy Services) and it rebranded to AES in 2000, with headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.
Key recent metrics: AES reported FY 2023 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3.2 billion and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 3.5×, reflecting its ongoing balance-sheet deleveraging. The firm’s renewable share has risen to ~30 % of total capacity, driven by global decarbonisation mandates and U.S. tax incentives for clean energy. A material sector driver is the volatility in natural-gas prices, which can compress margins for its gas-fired fleet while simultaneously boosting the economics of its wind and solar projects.
For a deeper quantitative view, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst tools to see how these fundamentals translate into valuation scenarios.
AES Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 9,806m |
| Sub-Industry | Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders |
| IPO / Inception | 1991-06-25 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -1.97% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.60 of 5 |
AES Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.12% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.14% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.88% |
| Payout Consistency | 45.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 34.0% |
AES Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | -17.74% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.28 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.46 |
| Current Volume | 9294.2k |
| Average Volume | 7956.7k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (1.14b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 725.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -21.61% (prev -15.05%; Δ -6.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.91b > Net Income 1.14b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (29.09b) to EBITDA (3.83b) ratio: 7.59 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.72 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (714.0m) change vs 12m ago 0.14% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 16.94% (prev 19.43%; Δ -2.49pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 23.98% (prev 24.53%; Δ -0.55pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.77 (EBITDA TTM 3.83b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.02
| (A) -0.05 = (Total Current Assets 6.82b - Total Current Liabilities 9.43b) / Total Assets 50.78b |
| (B) 0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 555.0m / Total Assets 50.78b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 2.44b / Avg Total Assets 50.43b |
| (D) -0.01 = Book Value of Equity -253.0m / Total Liabilities 40.25b |
| Total Rating: 0.02 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 38.89
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -5.70% |
| 3. FCF Margin -18.31% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 7.98 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 7.59 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.12)% |
| 7. RoE 31.65% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -18.37% |
| 9. EPS Trend 36.71% |
What is the price of AES shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.51%, over one month by -2.76%, over three months by +7.36% and over the past year by +10.15%.
Is AES a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the AES price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15.3 | 11.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15.3 | 11.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13.9 | 1.2% |
AES Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Trailing = 9.0592
P/E Forward = 5.9382
P/S = 0.8108
P/B = 2.5279
P/EG = 1.0921
Beta = 1.003
Revenue TTM = 12.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.44b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.83b USD
Long Term Debt = 26.46b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.39b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 30.85b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 29.09b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 38.83b USD (9.81b + Debt 30.85b - CCE 1.82b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.77 (Ebit TTM 2.44b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b)
FCF Yield = -5.70% (FCF TTM -2.21b / Enterprise Value 38.83b)
FCF Margin = -18.31% (FCF TTM -2.21b / Revenue TTM 12.09b)
Net Margin = 9.38% (Net Income TTM 1.14b / Revenue TTM 12.09b)
Gross Margin = 16.94% ((Revenue TTM 12.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.93% (prev 15.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 38.83b / Total Assets 50.78b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.13% (Interest Expense 348.0m / Debt 30.85b)
Taxrate = 28.97% (226.0m / 780.0m)
NOPAT = 1.73b (EBIT 2.44b * (1 - 28.97%))
Current Ratio = 0.72 (Total Current Assets 6.82b / Total Current Liabilities 9.43b)
Debt / Equity = 7.98 (Debt 30.85b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.59 (Net Debt 29.09b / EBITDA 3.83b)
Debt / FCF = -13.13 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 29.09b / FCF TTM -2.21b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.59b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.23% (Net Income 1.14b / Total Assets 50.78b)
RoE = 31.65% (Net Income TTM 1.14b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.59b)
RoCE = 8.11% (EBIT 2.44b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.59b + L.T.Debt 26.46b))
RoIC = 5.13% (NOPAT 1.73b / Invested Capital 33.77b)
WACC = 3.01% (E(9.81b)/V(40.65b) * Re(9.95%) + D(30.85b)/V(40.65b) * Rd(1.13%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 9.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.23%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -2.21b)
EPS Correlation: 36.71 | EPS CAGR: 16.74% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -18.37 | Revenue CAGR: 3.36% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for AES Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle