AESI Stock Analysis: Atlas Energy Solutions | NYSE
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.501m USD | 12M Return: 15.1% | US6420451089 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 33.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 85.3%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 3.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) is a Permian Basin-focused energy services company that produces proppants and offers logistics and distributed power solutions to oil and gas operators in West Texas and New Mexico. The company operates through two reportable segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power. AESI was founded in 2017, is headquartered in Austin, Texas, and completed its IPO in March 2023; it was previously known as New Atlas HoldCo. Inc.
The Sand and Logistics segment runs fourteen proppant production facilities, combining large-scale in-basin plants with a distributed mining network, and supplies products such as 40/70-mesh and 100-mesh sand in both dry and damp formats. Its logistics platform includes fit-for-purpose trucks, trailers, wellsite equipment, and the 42-mile Dune Express conveyor system used to deliver sand. Frac sand is a key input in hydraulic fracturing, making proppant suppliers closely tied to E&P operators completion activity.
The Power segment provides distributed power through natural gas-powered reciprocating generators designed for heavy-duty, mission-critical applications, primarily supporting oil and gas production and artificial lift operations. The company also offers transportation, storage, contract labor, and power rental services to the oil and gas industry.
- Permian Basin drilling activity drives proppant demand
- Dune Express conveyor widens logistics cost advantage
- Power segment scales with distributed gas generator demand
| Net Income: -118.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.40 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 20.26% < 20% (prev 10.30%; Δ 9.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 54.6m > Net Income -118.3m |
| Net Debt (881.0m) to EBITDA (110.9m): 7.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (124.9m) vs 12m ago 1.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 4.16% > 18% (prev 18.04%; Δ -13.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.46% > 50% (prev 51.70%; Δ -7.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.50 > 6 (EBIT TTM -94.6m / Interest Expense TTM 63.1m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 479.1m - Total Current Liabilities 262.7m) / Total Assets 2.56b |
| B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -122.7m / Total Assets 2.56b) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -94.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.40b) |
| D: 0.77 (Book Value of Equity 1.11b / Total Liabilities 1.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.94 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 217.5m/186.0m, Revenue 1.07b/1.16b) |
| GMI: 4.34 (GM 18.04% / 4.16%) |
| AQI: 1.17 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 1.07b / 1.16b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -118.3m - CFO 54.6m) / TA 2.56b) |
| Beneish M = 0.26 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.03 with a total of 4,867,447 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.95%, over one month by +19.21%, over three months by -27.77% and over the past year by +15.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.60 (which is 11% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Atlas Energy Solutions has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AESI.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.5 | 42% |
P/E Forward = 21.692
P/S = 1.406
P/B = 1.3365
Revenue TTM = 1.07b USD
EBIT TTM = -94.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 110.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 914.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 52.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.05b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 82.5m
Net Debt = 881.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.05b - CCE 168.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.38b USD (1.50b + Debt 1.05b - CCE 168.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.50 (Ebit TTM -94.6m / Interest Expense TTM 63.1m)
EV/FCF = -12.94x (Enterprise Value 2.38b / FCF TTM -184.1m)
FCF Yield = -7.73% (FCF TTM -184.1m / Enterprise Value 2.38b)
FCF Margin = -17.24% (FCF TTM -184.1m / Revenue TTM 1.07b)
Net Margin = -11.08% (Net Income TTM -118.3m / Revenue TTM 1.07b)
Gross Margin = 4.16% ((Revenue TTM 1.07b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.02b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.92% (prev -0.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 2.38b / Total Assets 2.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.02% (Interest Expense 63.1m / Debt 1.05b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -74.7m (EBIT -94.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.82 (Total Current Assets 479.1m / Total Current Liabilities 262.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.94 (Debt 1.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.94 (Net Debt 881.0m / EBITDA 110.9m)
Debt / FCF = -4.79 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 881.0m / FCF TTM -184.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.93% (Net Income -118.3m / Total Assets 2.56b)
RoE = -10.04% (Net Income TTM -118.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.18b)
RoCE = -4.52% (EBIT -94.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.18b + L.T.Debt 914.2m))
RoIC = -3.26% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -74.7m / Invested Capital 2.29b)
WACC = 8.36% (E(1.50b)/V(2.55b) * Re(10.88%) + D(1.05b)/V(2.55b) * Rd(6.02%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 92.09 | Cagr: 5.89%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -184.1m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.34 | Revenue CAGR: 26.97% | SUE: 1.06 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.23 | Chg30d=-260.00% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.82 | Chg30d=-68.89% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-136.3% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-79.08% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+109.7% | GrowthRev=+17.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -70% (up=0, down=7)