(AESI) Atlas Energy Solutions - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US6420451089

Sand, Mesh, Proppant, Logistics, Storage

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Market Cap in USD: 1,780m

IPO / Inception: 2023-03-09
12m vs SPY: -59.3%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -27.16%
EPS Trend: -74.3%

Last SUE: -2.20
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 52.88%
Rev. Trend: 87.5%

Last SUE: -1.34
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	5.38%
Yield on Cost 5y	4.96%
Yield CAGR 5y	29.10%
Payout Consistency	98.7%
Payout Ratio	808.3%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	42.4%
Value at Risk 5%th	66.5%
Relative Tail Risk	-4.66%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-1.03
Alpha	-77.45
CAGR/Max DD	-0.16

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.503
Beta	1.477
Beta Downside	1.937

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	65.91%
Mean DD	23.21%
Median DD	17.50%

Description: AESI Atlas Energy Solutions January 13, 2026

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE: AESI) manufactures and sells mesh and sand proppants for hydraulic-fracturing operations in the Permian Basin, complemented by logistics, storage, and contract-labor services for upstream oil-and-gas firms.

Key operating metrics (Q4 2023) show proppant shipments of ~1.9 million tons and a gross margin of roughly 31 %, reflecting the high-value nature of specialty sand in a region that accounts for > 40 % of U.S. oil production. The business is highly sensitive to crude-oil price trends and the prevailing “oil-price-floor” policy, which influences drilling activity and thus proppant demand. Seasonal weather patterns in West Texas also affect transportation logistics and storage utilization rates.

Given the cyclical exposure, a modest upside scenario assumes a sustained Brent price above $85 / bbl, which could lift AESI’s revenue growth to 12 % YoY, while a prolonged price dip below $70 / bbl would likely compress margins to the low-20 % range.

For a deeper dive into AESI’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you might find ValueRay’s data platform useful as a next step in your research.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (-13.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 67.0m TTM)

FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.59pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 6.86% (prev 6.30%; Δ 0.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 184.5m > Net Income -13.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (542.3m) to EBITDA (209.7m) ratio: 2.59 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.35 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (123.7m) change vs 12m ago 11.40% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 15.49% (prev 26.47%; Δ -10.99pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 53.11% (prev 46.91%; Δ 6.20pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.66 (EBITDA TTM 209.7m / Interest Expense TTM 53.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.27

(A) 0.03 = (Total Current Assets 297.2m - Total Current Liabilities 220.6m) / Total Assets 2.23b

(B) -0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -28.1m / Total Assets 2.23b

(D) -0.03 = Book Value of Equity -26.8m / Total Liabilities 1.01b

Total Rating: 0.27 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 42.12

1. Piotroski 3.50pt

2. FCF Yield -0.79%

3. FCF Margin -1.65%

4. Debt/Equity 0.48

5. Debt/Ebitda 2.59

6. ROIC - WACC (= -7.45)%

7. RoE -1.13%

8. Rev. Trend 87.47%

9. EPS Trend -74.25%

What is the price of AESI shares?

As of January 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.93 with a total of 1,583,901 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.12%, over one month by +8.86%, over three months by +2.44% and over the past year by -51.91%.

Is AESI a buy, sell or hold?

Atlas Energy Solutions has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AESI.

Strong Buy: 3
Buy: 3
Hold: 6
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AESI price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	12	9.7%
Analysts Target Price	12	9.7%
ValueRay Target Price	10.6	-2.7%

AESI Fundamental Data Overview January 15, 2026

P/E Forward = 21.692
P/S = 1.5936
P/B = 1.0854
Revenue TTM = 1.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 35.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 209.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 518.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 43.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 583.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 542.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.32b USD (1.78b + Debt 583.6m - CCE 41.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.66 (Ebit TTM 35.5m / Interest Expense TTM 53.9m)
EV/FCF = -126.2x (Enterprise Value 2.32b / FCF TTM -18.4m)
FCF Yield = -0.79% (FCF TTM -18.4m / Enterprise Value 2.32b)
FCF Margin = -1.65% (FCF TTM -18.4m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Net Margin = -1.22% (Net Income TTM -13.7m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Gross Margin = 15.49% ((Revenue TTM 1.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 944.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.34% (prev 18.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 2.32b / Total Assets 2.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.57% (Interest Expense 15.0m / Debt 583.6m)
Taxrate = 20.90% (15.8m / 75.8m)
NOPAT = 28.0m (EBIT 35.5m * (1 - 20.90%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 297.2m / Total Current Liabilities 220.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 583.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.59 (Net Debt 542.3m / EBITDA 209.7m)
Debt / FCF = -29.47 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 542.3m / FCF TTM -18.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.65% (Net Income -13.7m / Total Assets 2.23b)
RoE = -1.13% (Net Income TTM -13.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.21b)
RoCE = 2.05% (EBIT 35.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.21b + L.T.Debt 518.4m))
RoIC = 1.61% (NOPAT 28.0m / Invested Capital 1.74b)
WACC = 9.06% (E(1.78b)/V(2.36b) * Re(11.36%) + D(583.6m)/V(2.36b) * Rd(2.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 11.22%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.4m)
EPS Correlation: -74.25 | EPS CAGR: -27.16% | SUE: -2.20 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.47 | Revenue CAGR: 52.88% | SUE: -1.34 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.09 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.14 | Chg30d=-0.018 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+60.3% | Growth Revenue=-1.5%

Additional Sources for AESI Stock

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