AESI Stock Analysis: Atlas Energy Solutions | NYSE
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.787m USD | 12M Return: 5.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 39.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 3.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (AESI) is a Permian Basin-focused energy services company that produces proppants and offers logistics and distributed power solutions to oil and gas operators in West Texas and New Mexico. The company operates through two reportable segments: Sand and Logistics, and Power. AESI was founded in 2017, is headquartered in Austin, Texas, and completed its IPO in March 2023; it was previously known as New Atlas HoldCo. Inc.
The Sand and Logistics segment runs fourteen proppant production facilities, combining large-scale in-basin plants with a distributed mining network, and supplies products such as 40/70-mesh and 100-mesh sand in both dry and damp formats. Its logistics platform includes fit-for-purpose trucks, trailers, wellsite equipment, and the 42-mile Dune Express conveyor system used to deliver sand. Frac sand is a key input in hydraulic fracturing, making proppant suppliers closely tied to E&P operators completion activity.
The Power segment provides distributed power through natural gas-powered reciprocating generators designed for heavy-duty, mission-critical applications, primarily supporting oil and gas production and artificial lift operations. The company also offers transportation, storage, contract labor, and power rental services to the oil and gas industry.
- Permian Basin drilling activity drives proppant demand
- Dune Express conveyor widens logistics cost advantage
- Power segment scales with distributed gas generator demand
| Net Income: -98.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.68% < 20% (prev 12.43%; Δ -7.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 143.8m > Net Income -98.8m |
| Net Debt (722.7m) to EBITDA (141.4m): 5.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (124.6m) vs 12m ago 4.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.45% > 18% (prev 18.76%; Δ -11.31% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.30% > 50% (prev 50.59%; Δ -4.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM -57.8m / Interest Expense TTM 61.7m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 335.9m - Total Current Liabilities 286.1m) / Total Assets 2.30b |
| B: -0.04 (Retained Earnings -97.6m / Total Assets 2.30b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -57.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.30b) |
| D: 1.03 (Book Value of Equity 1.17b / Total Liabilities 1.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.92 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 208.4m/244.7m, Revenue 1.06b/1.16b) |
| GMI: 2.52 (GM 18.76% / 7.45%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 1.06b / 1.16b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -98.8m - CFO 143.8m) / TA 2.30b) |
| Beneish M = -1.80 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.77 with a total of 2,110,336 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.55%, over one month by -15.20%, over three months by +22.89% and over the past year by +5.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.00 (which is 12% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Atlas Energy Solutions has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AESI.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20 | 35.4% |
P/E Forward = 21.692
P/S = 1.6904
P/B = 1.5185
Revenue TTM = 1.06b USD
EBIT TTM = -57.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 141.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 557.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 78.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 762.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 69.9m
Net Debt = 722.7m USD (calculated: Debt 762.4m - CCE 39.8m)
Enterprise Value = 2.51b USD (1.79b + Debt 762.4m - CCE 39.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.94 (Ebit TTM -57.8m / Interest Expense TTM 61.7m)
EV/FCF = 134.7x (Enterprise Value 2.51b / FCF TTM 18.6m)
FCF Yield = 0.74% (FCF TTM 18.6m / Enterprise Value 2.51b)
FCF Margin = 1.75% (FCF TTM 18.6m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Net Margin = -9.29% (Net Income TTM -98.8m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Gross Margin = 7.45% ((Revenue TTM 1.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 984.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -0.64% (prev 4.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 2.51b / Total Assets 2.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.09% (Interest Expense 61.7m / Debt 762.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -45.6m (EBIT -57.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.17 (Total Current Assets 335.9m / Total Current Liabilities 286.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.65 (Debt 762.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.11 (Net Debt 722.7m / EBITDA 141.4m)
Debt / FCF = 38.78 (Net Debt 722.7m / FCF TTM 18.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.30% (Net Income -98.8m / Total Assets 2.30b)
RoE = -8.11% (Net Income TTM -98.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.22b)
RoCE = -3.25% (EBIT -57.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.22b + L.T.Debt 557.0m))
RoIC = -2.23% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -45.6m / Invested Capital 2.05b)
WACC = 9.27% (E(1.79b)/V(2.55b) * Re(10.50%) + D(762.4m)/V(2.55b) * Rd(8.09%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 10.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.27% ; FCFF base≈18.6m ; Y1≈18.7m ; Y5≈19.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 266.5m - Net Debt 722.7m = -456.2m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.67 | Revenue CAGR: 31.64% | SUE: 1.02 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=-15.34% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=-44.34% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=-21.92% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-33.2% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-6.60% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+173.9% | GrowthRev=+18.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)