Overview Dividends

(AESI) Atlas Energy Solutions - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US6420451089

Proppant, Sand, Mesh, Logistics, Storage

AESI EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -80.15%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -78.7%

AESI Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 22.12%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 85.5%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	70.8%
Value at Risk 5%th	110%
Relative Tail Risk	-5.24%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-1.19
Alpha	-74.23

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.608
Beta	1.467
Beta Downside	1.895

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	64.10%
Mean DD	21.06%
Median DD	16.59%

Description: AESI Atlas Energy Solutions November 10, 2025

Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. (NYSE:AESI) manufactures, processes, and sells sand and mesh proppants used in hydraulic fracturing across the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. In addition to proppant sales, the company offers logistics, storage, and contract-labor services to upstream oil and gas producers, frac-service firms, and other oilfield service providers. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Austin, Texas, AESI operates as a pure-play proppant supplier within the broader Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry.

Recent market data (Q2 2024) show that AESI shipped roughly 1.2 million short tons of proppant, reflecting a 9 % year-over-year increase driven by a resurgence in Permian drilling activity as oil prices stabilized above $80 per barrel. The company’s average realized proppant price rose about 11 % YoY, outpacing the broader sand-price index, which suggests pricing power amid constrained supply of high-quality silica sand. A key sector driver remains the capital-intensive nature of frac-operations; a 1 % rise in drilling rigs in the Permian typically translates into a 0.5 % lift in proppant demand, underscoring the tight coupling between rig count and AESI’s top line.

For a deeper, data-rich assessment of AESI’s valuation metrics and peer comparisons, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform worth exploring.

AESI Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	1,382m
Sub-Industry	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
IPO / Inception	2023-03-09
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-62.5%
Analyst Rating	3.75 of 5

AESI Dividends

Dividend Yield	8.77%
Yield on Cost 5y	4.96%
Yield CAGR 5y	75.56%
Payout Consistency	100.0%
Payout Ratio	808.3%

AESI Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	-19.14%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.30
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.91
Current Volume	4231.3k
Average Volume	3377.6k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (-13.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 67.0m TTM)

FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.59pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 6.86% (prev 6.30%; Δ 0.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 184.5m > Net Income -13.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (542.3m) to EBITDA (209.7m) ratio: 2.59 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.35 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (123.7m) change vs 12m ago 11.40% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 15.49% (prev 26.47%; Δ -10.99pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 53.11% (prev 46.91%; Δ 6.20pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.66 (EBITDA TTM 209.7m / Interest Expense TTM 53.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.27

(A) 0.03 = (Total Current Assets 297.2m - Total Current Liabilities 220.6m) / Total Assets 2.23b

(B) -0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -28.1m / Total Assets 2.23b

(D) -0.03 = Book Value of Equity -26.8m / Total Liabilities 1.01b

Total Rating: 0.27 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 42.08

1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50

2. FCF Yield -0.96% = -0.48

3. FCF Margin -1.65% = -0.62

4. Debt/Equity 0.48 = 2.39

5. Debt/Ebitda 2.59 = -1.11

6. ROIC - WACC (= -7.12)% = -8.90

7. RoE -1.13% = -0.19

8. Rev. Trend 85.54% = 6.42

9. EPS Trend -78.68% = -3.93

What is the price of AESI shares?

As of November 18, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 8.55 with a total of 4,231,272 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -19.64%, over one month by -16.50%, over three months by -24.34% and over the past year by -56.99%.

Is Atlas Energy Solutions a good stock to buy?

No, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE:AESI) is currently (November 2025) a stock to sell. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 42.08 and therefor a negative outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AESI is around 7.86 USD . This means that AESI is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -8.07%.

Is AESI a buy, sell or hold?

Atlas Energy Solutions has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AESI.

Strong Buy: 3
Buy: 3
Hold: 6
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AESI price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	13.7	60%
Analysts Target Price	13.7	60%
ValueRay Target Price	8.8	2.6%

AESI Fundamental Data Overview November 10, 2025

Market Cap USD = 1.38b (1.38b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 21.692
P/S = 1.2374
P/B = 1.0969
Beta = 1.128
Revenue TTM = 1.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 35.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 209.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 467.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 43.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 583.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 542.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.92b USD (1.38b + Debt 583.6m - CCE 41.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.66 (Ebit TTM 35.5m / Interest Expense TTM 53.9m)
FCF Yield = -0.96% (FCF TTM -18.4m / Enterprise Value 1.92b)
FCF Margin = -1.65% (FCF TTM -18.4m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Net Margin = -1.22% (Net Income TTM -13.7m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Gross Margin = 15.49% ((Revenue TTM 1.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 944.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.34% (prev 18.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 1.92b / Total Assets 2.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.57% (Interest Expense 15.0m / Debt 583.6m)
Taxrate = 29.30% (-9.83m / -33.6m)
NOPAT = 25.1m (EBIT 35.5m * (1 - 29.30%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 297.2m / Total Current Liabilities 220.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 583.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.59 (Net Debt 542.3m / EBITDA 209.7m)
Debt / FCF = -29.47 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 542.3m / FCF TTM -18.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.21b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.61% (Net Income -13.7m / Total Assets 2.23b)
RoE = -1.13% (Net Income TTM -13.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.21b)
RoCE = 2.12% (EBIT 35.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.21b + L.T.Debt 467.0m))
RoIC = 1.45% (NOPAT 25.1m / Invested Capital 1.73b)
WACC = 8.57% (E(1.38b)/V(1.97b) * Re(11.42%) + D(583.6m)/V(1.97b) * Rd(2.57%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 11.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 11.22%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.4m)
EPS Correlation: -78.68 | EPS CAGR: -80.15% | SUE: -3.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.54 | Revenue CAGR: 22.12% | SUE: -1.34 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for AESI Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle