(AFG) American Financial - Overview
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 11.158m USD | Total Return: 12.9% in 12m
Specialty Insurance, Casualty Insurance, Property Insurance, Financial Risk
Total Rating 44
Safety 22
Buy Signal -0.22
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Rotation: +12.1
Industry Rotation: +12.1
Market Cap:
11.2B
Avg Turnover: 57.2M
Avg Turnover: 57.2M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility20.5%
VaR 5th Pctl3.66%
VaR vs Median8.55%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.51
Rel. Str. IBD48
Rel. Str. Peer Group43.3
Character TTM
Beta0.391
Beta Downside0.418
Hurst Exponent0.603
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD19.85%
CAGR/Max DD0.61
CAGR/Mean DD1.76
EPS (Earnings per Share)
EPS CAGR: -3.74%
EPS Trend: -8.4%
EPS Trend: -8.4%
Last SUE: -0.74
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue
Rev. CAGR: 6.52%
Rev. Trend: 48.2%
Rev. Trend: 48.2%
Last SUE: 0.33
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Description: AFG American Financial
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company specializing in property and casualty (P&C) insurance. The firm focuses on niche markets through three primary product categories: property and transportation, specialty casualty, and specialty financial products. Its operations include coverage for commercial trucking, marine, agricultural risks, and executive liability.
The company utilizes a specialty insurance business model, which often targets risks that standard carriers avoid, allowing for more precise underwriting and potential pricing advantages. Within the P&C sector, companies like AFG frequently rely on independent agents and brokers to distribute highly technical products to small and mid-sized businesses. Investors can examine the companys historical underwriting performance on ValueRay to better understand its long-term stability.
Founded in 1872, AFG maintains a significant presence in the excess and surplus (E&S) lines, providing customized risk management solutions for lending and leasing institutions. This focus on specialty segments helps insulate the firm from the broader price competition found in the standard personal lines insurance market.
- Underwriting margins in specialty property and casualty segments drive core earnings growth
- Volatility in agricultural commodity prices impacts crop insurance underwriting profitability
- Fluctuations in interest rates affect investment income from fixed maturity portfolios
- Capital management through special dividends and share repurchases influences total shareholder returns
- Loss reserve adequacy and social inflation trends impact long term specialty casualty margins
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict)
6.5
| Net Income: 879.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -256.5% < 20% (prev 3.16%; Δ -259.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.67b > Net Income 879.0m |
| Net Debt (467.0m) to EBITDA (1.26b): 0.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.3m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.36% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 3.22k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 32.55% > 50% (prev 33.99%; Δ -1.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.15 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.26b / Interest Expense TTM 84.0m) |
Altman Z''
-4.48
| A: -0.81 (Total Current Assets 3.02b - Total Current Liabilities 23.93b) / Total Assets 25.84b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 3.29b / Total Assets 25.84b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 937.0m / Avg Total Assets 25.04b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 3.25b / Total Liabilities 21.16b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.48 = D |
Beneish M
-3.45
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 1.67b/1.59b, Revenue 8.15b/8.24b) |
| GMI: 0.52 (GM 32.36% / 16.74%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.88 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 8.15b / 8.24b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 879.0m - CFO 1.67b) / TA 25.84b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AFG shares?
As of May 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 136.31 with a total of 192,088 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.10%, over one month by +4.87%, over three months by +5.27% and over the past year by +12.91%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.10%, over one month by +4.87%, over three months by +5.27% and over the past year by +12.91%.
Is AFG a buy, sell or hold?
American Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold AFG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFG price?
| Analysts Target Price | 142 | 4.2% |
American Financial (AFG) - Fundamental Data Overview
as of 18 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 12.754 P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.4041
P/B = 2.3324
P/EG = 2.3015
Revenue TTM = 8.15b USD
EBIT TTM = 937.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.26b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 467.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.63b USD (11.16b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 1.35b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.15 (Ebit TTM 937.0m / Interest Expense TTM 84.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.40x (Enterprise Value 11.63b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
FCF Yield = 13.51% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 11.63b)
FCF Margin = 19.27% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 8.15b)
Net Margin = 10.78% (Net Income TTM 879.0m / Revenue TTM 8.15b)
Gross Margin = 32.36% ((Revenue TTM 8.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.13% (prev 48.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.45 (Enterprise Value 11.63b / Total Assets 25.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.26% (Interest Expense 23.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 20.08% (48.0m / 239.0m)
NOPAT = 748.8m (EBIT 937.0m * (1 - 20.08%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 3.02b / Total Current Liabilities 23.93b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.68b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.37 (Net Debt 467.0m / EBITDA 1.26b)
Debt / FCF = 0.30 (Net Debt 467.0m / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.51% (Net Income 879.0m / Total Assets 25.84b)
RoE = 18.76% (Net Income TTM 879.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.69b)
RoCE = 14.40% (EBIT 937.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.69b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 11.71% (NOPAT 748.8m / Invested Capital 6.39b)
WACC = 6.47% (E(11.16b)/V(12.98b) * Re(7.36%) + D(1.82b)/V(12.98b) * Rd(1.26%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -56.57 | Cagr: -0.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 85.59% ; FCFF base≈1.51b ; Y1≈1.69b ; Y5≈2.26b
[DCF] Fair Price = 682.6 (EV 57.18b - Net Debt 467.0m = Equity 56.71b / Shares 83.1m; r=6.47% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 13.91% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -8.43 | EPS CAGR: -3.74% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.25 | Revenue CAGR: 6.52% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=-1.90% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.17 | Chg30d=+23.35% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.62 | Chg30d=+4.55% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=+12.9% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.07 | Chg30d=+0.28% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+3.9% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50%