(AFG) American Financial - Ratings and Ratios
Property, Transportation, Casualty, Financial, Surety
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.19% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 14.22% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -28.63% |
| Payout Consistency | 86.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 46.6% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 34.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.06 |
| Alpha | -7.01 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.537 |
| Beta | 0.476 |
| Beta Downside | 0.354 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.08% |
| Mean DD | 9.62% |
| Median DD | 9.80% |
Description: AFG American Financial January 04, 2026
American Financial Group (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that underwrites specialty property and casualty (P&C) products across the United States. Its portfolio includes physical-damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks, and other niche transportation segments, inland and ocean marine risks, agricultural exposures, and broader commercial property lines. On the casualty side, AFG focuses on excess and surplus lines, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella policies, and tailored programs for small- to mid-size firms, including workers’ compensation.
The firm also offers specialty financial insurance, such as risk-management solutions for lenders and lessors, fidelity and surety bonds, and trade-credit insurance. Distribution is primarily through independent agents and brokers, which provides a flexible sales channel but also subjects the company to broker commission cycles. As of Q4 2023, AFG reported a combined ratio of 93.2% and a net investment yield of 5.1%, indicating strong underwriting discipline and a relatively high-yielding investment portfolio that benefits from the current elevated interest-rate environment.
Key economic drivers for AFG include freight-transport volume trends, which affect its transportation-line premiums, and the broader credit environment that influences demand for trade-credit and surety products. Additionally, the multi-line insurance sector is experiencing heightened reinsurance pricing pressure, which could impact AFG’s loss-cost structure if not managed through prudent ceding strategies.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AFG’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can help surface the most material assumptions behind the stock’s price target.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 798.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.14% < 20% (prev -40.09%; Δ 73.24% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 1.42b > Net Income 798.0m |
| Net Debt (-22.0m) to EBITDA (1.18b): -0.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.4m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.83% > 18% (prev 0.18%; Δ 1665 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 24.76% > 50% (prev 25.21%; Δ -0.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.34 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.18b / Interest Expense TTM 76.0m) |
Altman Z'' (< 1.1 .. > 2.6) 1.19
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 3.92b - Total Current Liabilities 1.19b) / Total Assets 33.83b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 3.30b / Total Assets 33.83b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 1.09b / Avg Total Assets 33.21b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 3.31b / Total Liabilities 29.10b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.19 = BB |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.18
| 1. Piotroski: 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 12.99% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 17.30% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.38 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: -0.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 7.67% |
| 7. RoE: 17.63% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 74.26% |
| 9. EPS Trend: -53.85% |
What is the price of AFG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.33%, over one month by -4.12%, over three months by +2.46% and over the past year by +2.77%.
Is AFG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 143.8 | 9.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 143.8 | 9.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 141.4 | 7.6% |
AFG Fundamental Data Overview January 22, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.3706
P/B = 2.3214
P/EG = 2.78
Revenue TTM = 8.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.09b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.18b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -22.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.96b USD (10.98b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 1.84b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.34 (Ebit TTM 1.09b / Interest Expense TTM 76.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.70x (Enterprise Value 10.96b / FCF TTM 1.42b)
FCF Yield = 12.99% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Enterprise Value 10.96b)
FCF Margin = 17.30% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Revenue TTM 8.22b)
Net Margin = 9.70% (Net Income TTM 798.0m / Revenue TTM 8.22b)
Gross Margin = 16.83% ((Revenue TTM 8.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.84b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.58% (prev 17.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.32 (Enterprise Value 10.96b / Total Assets 33.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 19.78% (53.0m / 268.0m)
NOPAT = 874.4m (EBIT 1.09b * (1 - 19.78%))
Current Ratio = 3.29 (Total Current Assets 3.92b / Total Current Liabilities 1.19b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.02 (Net Debt -22.0m / EBITDA 1.18b)
Debt / FCF = -0.02 (Net Debt -22.0m / FCF TTM 1.42b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.53b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.40% (Net Income 798.0m / Total Assets 33.83b)
RoE = 17.63% (Net Income TTM 798.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.53b)
RoCE = 17.18% (EBIT 1.09b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.53b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 14.36% (NOPAT 874.4m / Invested Capital 6.09b)
WACC = 6.70% (E(10.98b)/V(12.80b) * Re(7.67%) + D(1.82b)/V(12.80b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.81% ; FCFF base≈1.33b ; Y1≈1.42b ; Y5≈1.71b
Fair Price DCF = 478.6 (EV 39.90b - Net Debt -22.0m = Equity 39.92b / Shares 83.4m; r=6.70% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 7.24% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -53.85 | EPS CAGR: -51.04% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 74.26 | Revenue CAGR: 13.42% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.63 | Chg30d=-0.029 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.35 | Chg30d=-0.050 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+13.9% | Growth Revenue=+4.5%
Additional Sources for AFG Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle