(AFG) American Financial - Ratings and Ratios
Property, Transportation, Casualty, Financial, Surety
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.49% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 14.15% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 25.10% |
| Payout Consistency | 86.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 45.8% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 35.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.37% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.14 |
| Alpha | -11.08 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.407 |
| Beta | 0.512 |
| Beta Downside | 0.424 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.37% |
| Mean DD | 9.50% |
| Median DD | 9.95% |
Description: AFG American Financial October 31, 2025
American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that underwrites specialty property and casualty (P&C) products across the United States. Its portfolio includes physical-damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and other niche transportation segments, inland and ocean marine policies, agricultural insurance, and broader commercial property lines. On the casualty side, AFG focuses on excess and surplus lines, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella coverage, and tailored programs for small- to mid-size firms, including workers’ compensation. The firm also offers financial-insurance solutions such as risk-management programs for lenders, fidelity and surety bonds, and trade-credit insurance, distributing its products primarily through independent agents and brokers.
Key operational metrics (as of FY 2023) show a combined ratio of roughly 92%, indicating underwriting profitability, while the company’s return on equity (ROE) hovered near 13%, reflecting solid capital efficiency. AFG’s investment portfolio is heavily weighted toward fixed-income assets, making its net investment income sensitive to the prevailing interest-rate environment-a critical driver given the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hikes. Additionally, the commercial transportation sector’s freight volumes, which have rebounded post-pandemic, directly influence premium growth in AFG’s bus and truck lines.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools helpful for modeling AFG’s risk-adjusted returns and scenario-based outcomes.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (798.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 493.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 33.14% (prev -40.09%; Δ 73.24pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.42b > Net Income 798.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-22.0m) to EBITDA (1.18b) ratio: -0.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.29 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (83.4m) change vs 12m ago -0.60% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 16.83% (prev 18.16%; Δ -1.33pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 24.76% (prev 25.21%; Δ -0.44pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 14.34 (EBITDA TTM 1.18b / Interest Expense TTM 76.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.19
| (A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 3.92b - Total Current Liabilities 1.19b) / Total Assets 33.83b |
| (B) 0.10 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.30b / Total Assets 33.83b |
| (C) 0.03 = EBIT TTM 1.09b / Avg Total Assets 33.21b |
| (D) 0.11 = Book Value of Equity 3.31b / Total Liabilities 29.10b |
| Total Rating: 1.19 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 78.23
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 13.53% |
| 3. FCF Margin 17.30% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.38 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.44)% |
| 7. RoE 17.63% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 74.26% |
| 9. EPS Trend -57.32% |
What is the price of AFG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.08%, over one month by -6.01%, over three months by -1.71% and over the past year by -1.38%.
Is AFG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 139.6 | 5.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 139.6 | 5.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 146.7 | 10.7% |
AFG Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 14.2057
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.4095
P/B = 2.4284
P/EG = 2.78
Beta = 0.68
Revenue TTM = 8.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.09b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.18b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -22.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.52b USD (11.29b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 2.59b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.34 (Ebit TTM 1.09b / Interest Expense TTM 76.0m)
FCF Yield = 13.53% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Enterprise Value 10.52b)
FCF Margin = 17.30% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Revenue TTM 8.22b)
Net Margin = 9.70% (Net Income TTM 798.0m / Revenue TTM 8.22b)
Gross Margin = 16.83% ((Revenue TTM 8.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.84b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.58% (prev 17.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.31 (Enterprise Value 10.52b / Total Assets 33.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 19.78% (53.0m / 268.0m)
NOPAT = 874.4m (EBIT 1.09b * (1 - 19.78%))
Current Ratio = 3.29 (Total Current Assets 3.92b / Total Current Liabilities 1.19b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.02 (Net Debt -22.0m / EBITDA 1.18b)
Debt / FCF = -0.02 (Net Debt -22.0m / FCF TTM 1.42b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.53b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 798.0m / Total Assets 33.83b)
RoE = 17.63% (Net Income TTM 798.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.53b)
RoCE = 17.18% (EBIT 1.09b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.53b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 14.36% (NOPAT 874.4m / Invested Capital 6.09b)
WACC = 6.92% (E(11.29b)/V(13.11b) * Re(7.90%) + D(1.82b)/V(13.11b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.18% ; FCFE base≈1.33b ; Y1≈1.42b ; Y5≈1.71b
Fair Price DCF = 358.8 (DCF Value 29.93b / Shares Outstanding 83.4m; 5y FCF grow 7.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -57.32 | EPS CAGR: -10.75% | SUE: 3.26 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 74.26 | Revenue CAGR: 13.42% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.66 | Chg30d=-0.034 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.38 | Chg30d=-0.138 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+14.1% | Growth Revenue=+4.8%
Additional Sources for AFG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle