(AFG) American Financial - Overview
Stock: Property, Transportation, Casualty, Financial, Surety
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.56 |
| Alpha | 5.47 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.480 |
| Beta Downside | 0.362 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.96% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.26 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: AFG American Financial January 04, 2026
American Financial Group (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that underwrites specialty property and casualty (P&C) products across the United States. Its portfolio includes physical-damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks, and other niche transportation segments, inland and ocean marine risks, agricultural exposures, and broader commercial property lines. On the casualty side, AFG focuses on excess and surplus lines, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella policies, and tailored programs for small- to mid-size firms, including workers’ compensation.
The firm also offers specialty financial insurance, such as risk-management solutions for lenders and lessors, fidelity and surety bonds, and trade-credit insurance. Distribution is primarily through independent agents and brokers, which provides a flexible sales channel but also subjects the company to broker commission cycles. As of Q4 2023, AFG reported a combined ratio of 93.2% and a net investment yield of 5.1%, indicating strong underwriting discipline and a relatively high-yielding investment portfolio that benefits from the current elevated interest-rate environment.
Key economic drivers for AFG include freight-transport volume trends, which affect its transportation-line premiums, and the broader credit environment that influences demand for trade-credit and surety products. Additionally, the multi-line insurance sector is experiencing heightened reinsurance pricing pressure, which could impact AFG’s loss-cost structure if not managed through prudent ceding strategies.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AFG’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can help surface the most material assumptions behind the stock’s price target.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 842.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 226.0% < 20% (prev 116.0%; Δ 110.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 749.0m > Net Income 842.0m |
| Net Debt (-15.36b) to EBITDA (1.22b): -12.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct Total Current Assets and Liabilities) |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.4m) vs 12m ago -0.71% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.20% > 18% (prev 0.18%; Δ 2402 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.64% > 50% (prev 26.85%; Δ -1.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.39 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.22b / Interest Expense TTM 80.0m) |
Altman Z'' 4.32
| A: 0.56 (Total Current Assets 18.39b - Total Current Liabilities 0.0) / Total Assets 32.66b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 3.36b / Total Assets 32.66b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 751.0m / Avg Total Assets 31.75b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 3.39b / Total Liabilities 27.84b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.32 = AA |
Beneish M
| DSRI: 0.16 (Receivables 1.21b/7.83b, Revenue 8.14b/8.28b) |
| GMI: 0.74 (GM 24.20% / 17.79%) |
| AQI: none (AQ_t none / AQ_t-1 none) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 8.14b / 8.28b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 842.0m - CFO 749.0m) / TA 32.66b) |
| Beneish M-Score: cannot calculate (missing components) |
What is the price of AFG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.68%, over one month by +2.61%, over three months by -2.63% and over the past year by +15.85%.
Is AFG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 140.5 | 7.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 140.5 | 7.9% |
AFG Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.3711
P/B = 2.2318
P/EG = 2.78
Revenue TTM = 8.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 751.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.22b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -15.36b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -4.49b USD (10.88b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 17.18b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.39 (Ebit TTM 751.0m / Interest Expense TTM 80.0m)
EV/FCF = -6.34x (Enterprise Value -4.49b / FCF TTM 708.0m)
FCF Yield = -15.78% (FCF TTM 708.0m / Enterprise Value -4.49b)
FCF Margin = 8.70% (FCF TTM 708.0m / Revenue TTM 8.14b)
Net Margin = 10.34% (Net Income TTM 842.0m / Revenue TTM 8.14b)
Gross Margin = 24.20% ((Revenue TTM 8.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.17b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.57% (prev 15.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.14 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -4.49b / Total Assets 32.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.26% (Interest Expense 23.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 21.11% (80.0m / 379.0m)
NOPAT = 592.5m (EBIT 751.0m * (1 - 21.11%))
Current Ratio = unknown (Total Current Assets 18.39b / Total Current Liabilities 0.0)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = -12.62 (Net Debt -15.36b / EBITDA 1.22b)
Debt / FCF = -21.70 (Net Debt -15.36b / FCF TTM 708.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.65% (Net Income 842.0m / Total Assets 32.66b)
RoE = 18.25% (Net Income TTM 842.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.61b)
RoCE = 11.67% (EBIT 751.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.61b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 9.65% (NOPAT 592.5m / Invested Capital 6.14b)
WACC = 6.73% (E(10.88b)/V(12.70b) * Re(7.69%) + D(1.82b)/V(12.70b) * Rd(1.26%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.69% ; FCFF base≈885.6m ; Y1≈943.2m ; Y5≈1.13b
Fair Price DCF = 498.8 (EV 26.25b - Net Debt -15.36b = Equity 41.61b / Shares 83.4m; r=6.73% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 7.24% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -21.35 | EPS CAGR: 0.67% | SUE: 2.03 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 67.24 | Revenue CAGR: 9.76% | SUE: 2.18 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.56 | Chg30d=-0.104 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.09 | Chg30d=-0.312 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+7.8% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.03 | Chg30d=-0.128 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+8.5% | Growth Revenue=+4.6%