Overview Dividends

(AFG) American Financial - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US0259321042

Property, Transportation, Casualty, Financial, Surety

Multi-line Insurance
Market Cap in USD: 11,499m

IPO / Inception: 1983-04-06
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -10.2%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -51.04%
EPS Trend: -53.8%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 13.42%
Rev. Trend: 74.3%

Last SUE: 0.57
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	6.12%
Yield on Cost 5y	15.03%
Yield CAGR 5y	-28.63%
Payout Consistency	86.8%
Payout Ratio	45.8%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	21.6%
Value at Risk 5%th	35.1%
Relative Tail Risk	-1.46%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.20
Alpha	-6.62
CAGR/Max DD	0.21

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.518
Beta	0.489
Beta Downside	0.387

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	22.37%
Mean DD	9.66%
Median DD	9.95%

Description: AFG American Financial January 04, 2026

American Financial Group (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that underwrites specialty property and casualty (P&C) products across the United States. Its portfolio includes physical-damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks, and other niche transportation segments, inland and ocean marine risks, agricultural exposures, and broader commercial property lines. On the casualty side, AFG focuses on excess and surplus lines, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella policies, and tailored programs for small- to mid-size firms, including workers’ compensation.

The firm also offers specialty financial insurance, such as risk-management solutions for lenders and lessors, fidelity and surety bonds, and trade-credit insurance. Distribution is primarily through independent agents and brokers, which provides a flexible sales channel but also subjects the company to broker commission cycles. As of Q4 2023, AFG reported a combined ratio of 93.2% and a net investment yield of 5.1%, indicating strong underwriting discipline and a relatively high-yielding investment portfolio that benefits from the current elevated interest-rate environment.

Key economic drivers for AFG include freight-transport volume trends, which affect its transportation-line premiums, and the broader credit environment that influences demand for trade-credit and surety products. Additionally, the multi-line insurance sector is experiencing heightened reinsurance pricing pressure, which could impact AFG’s loss-cost structure if not managed through prudent ceding strategies.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AFG’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can help surface the most material assumptions behind the stock’s price target.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income (798.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 493.5m TTM)

FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 33.14% (prev -40.09%; Δ 73.24pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.42b > Net Income 798.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-22.0m) to EBITDA (1.18b) ratio: -0.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 3.29 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (83.4m) change vs 12m ago -0.60% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 16.83% (prev 18.16%; Δ -1.33pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 24.76% (prev 25.21%; Δ -0.44pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 14.34 (EBITDA TTM 1.18b / Interest Expense TTM 76.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.19

(A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 3.92b - Total Current Liabilities 1.19b) / Total Assets 33.83b

(B) 0.10 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.30b / Total Assets 33.83b

(D) 0.11 = Book Value of Equity 3.31b / Total Liabilities 29.10b

Total Rating: 1.19 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 78.47

1. Piotroski 5.50pt

2. FCF Yield 12.40%

3. FCF Margin 17.30%

4. Debt/Equity 0.38

5. Debt/Ebitda -0.02

6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.50)%

7. RoE 17.63%

8. Rev. Trend 74.26%

9. EPS Trend -53.85%

What is the price of AFG shares?

As of January 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 133.23 with a total of 356,549 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.52%, over one month by +0.64%, over three months by -7.40% and over the past year by +6.47%.

Is AFG a buy, sell or hold?

American Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AFG.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 5
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AFG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	140.6	5.5%
Analysts Target Price	140.6	5.5%
ValueRay Target Price	144.5	8.5%

AFG Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 2026

Market Cap USD = 11.50b (11.50b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.4669
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.4354
P/B = 2.4323
P/EG = 2.78
Beta = 0.676
Revenue TTM = 8.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.09b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.18b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -22.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.48b USD (11.50b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 1.84b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.34 (Ebit TTM 1.09b / Interest Expense TTM 76.0m)
FCF Yield = 12.40% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Enterprise Value 11.48b)
FCF Margin = 17.30% (FCF TTM 1.42b / Revenue TTM 8.22b)
Net Margin = 9.70% (Net Income TTM 798.0m / Revenue TTM 8.22b)
Gross Margin = 16.83% ((Revenue TTM 8.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.84b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.58% (prev 17.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.34 (Enterprise Value 11.48b / Total Assets 33.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 19.78% (53.0m / 268.0m)
NOPAT = 874.4m (EBIT 1.09b * (1 - 19.78%))
Current Ratio = 3.29 (Total Current Assets 3.92b / Total Current Liabilities 1.19b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.02 (Net Debt -22.0m / EBITDA 1.18b)
Debt / FCF = -0.02 (Net Debt -22.0m / FCF TTM 1.42b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.53b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 798.0m / Total Assets 33.83b)
RoE = 17.63% (Net Income TTM 798.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.53b)
RoCE = 17.18% (EBIT 1.09b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.53b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 14.36% (NOPAT 874.4m / Invested Capital 6.09b)
WACC = 6.87% (E(11.50b)/V(13.32b) * Re(7.82%) + D(1.82b)/V(13.32b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.18% ; FCFE base≈1.33b ; Y1≈1.42b ; Y5≈1.71b
Fair Price DCF = 358.8 (DCF Value 29.93b / Shares Outstanding 83.4m; 5y FCF grow 7.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -53.85 | EPS CAGR: -51.04% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 74.26 | Revenue CAGR: 13.42% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.66 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.40 | Chg30d=-0.050 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+14.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.9%

Additional Sources for AFG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle