AFG Stock Analysis: American Financial | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 11.461m USD | 12M Return: -1.2% | US0259321042 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.4M
EPS Trend: 7.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 70.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that provides property and casualty insurance products across the United States. Founded in 1872 and listed on the NYSE since 1983, the company operates through two main segments: Property and Casualty Insurance and Other. It distributes its products primarily through independent insurance agents and brokers.
AFGs property and transportation offerings include physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks, specialty transportation, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property lines. Its specialty casualty business covers excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, workers compensation, and tailored programs for small to mid-sized businesses.
The company also provides specialty financial insurance products such as risk management programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. Originally named American Financial Group Holdings Inc, the company adopted its current name in July 1997.
As a Multi-line Insurance provider within the Financials sector, AFG operates in a competitive industry that includes major players such as Berkshire Hathaway, The Hartford, and CNA Financial. The P&C insurance industry is heavily regulated at the state level, with pricing and underwriting practices shaped by catastrophe exposure, reinsurance costs, and reserve adequacy requirements.
- Specialty P&C rate increases expand underwriting margins
- Investment income benefits from elevated interest rate environment
- Catastrophe losses pressure quarterly combined ratio results
| Net Income: 953.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -149.0% < 20% (prev 5.36%; Δ -154.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 1.57b > Net Income 953.0m |
| Net Debt (-463.0m) to EBITDA (1.38b): -0.34 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.0m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 26.05% > 18% (prev 16.36%; Δ 9.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.32% > 50% (prev 33.57%; Δ -5.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.51 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.29b / Interest Expense TTM 89.0m) |
| A: -0.37 (Total Current Assets 12.1b - Total Current Liabilities 24.3b) / Total Assets 33.0b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 3.45b / Total Assets 33.0b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.29b / Avg Total Assets 28.9b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 4.82b / Total Liabilities 28.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.60 = D |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 8.43b/1.95b, Revenue 8.17b/8.28b) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 16.36% / 26.05%) |
| AQI: 0.73 (AQ_t 0.63 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 8.17b / 8.28b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 953.0m - CFO 1.57b) / TA 33.0b) |
| Beneish M = -1.89 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of October 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 136.76 with a total of 497,069 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.06%, over one month by -4.06%, over three months by -1.66% and over the past year by -1.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 131.90 (which is 3.6% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
American Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 155.8 | 13.9% |
P/E Trailing = 12.0822
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.4225
P/B = 2.4018
P/EG = 2.3015
Revenue TTM = 8.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.29b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -463.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.82b - CCE 2.28b)
Enterprise Value = 11.0b USD (11.5b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 2.28b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.51 (Ebit TTM 1.29b / Interest Expense TTM 89.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.69x (Enterprise Value 11.0b / FCF TTM 1.43b)
FCF Yield = 13.01% (FCF TTM 1.43b / Enterprise Value 11.0b)
FCF Margin = 17.51% (FCF TTM 1.43b / Revenue TTM 8.17b)
Net Margin = 11.66% (Net Income TTM 953.0m / Revenue TTM 8.17b)
Gross Margin = 26.05% ((Revenue TTM 8.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.80% (prev 17.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.33 (Enterprise Value 11.0b / Total Assets 33.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.89% (Interest Expense 89.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 20.72% (249.0m / 1.20b)
NOPAT = 1.02b (EBIT 1.29b * (1 - 20.72%))
Current Ratio = 0.50 (Total Current Assets 12.1b / Total Current Liabilities 24.3b)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.34 (Net Debt -463.0m / EBITDA 1.38b)
Debt / FCF = -0.32 (Net Debt -463.0m / FCF TTM 1.43b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.30% (Net Income 953.0m / Total Assets 33.0b)
RoE = 20.01% (Net Income TTM 953.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.76b)
RoCE = 19.61% (EBIT 1.29b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.76b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 12.19% (NOPAT 1.02b / Invested Capital 8.40b)
WACC = 6.15% (E(11.5b)/V(13.3b) * Re(6.51%) + D(1.82b)/V(13.3b) * Rd(4.89%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.89 | Cagr: -0.43%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.55b ; Y1≈1.36b ; Y5≈1.10b
[DCF] Fair Price = 218.6 (EV 17.7b - Net Debt -463.0m = Equity 18.1b / Shares 82.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 7.81 | EPS CAGR: 0.49% | SUE: 2.19 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 70.53 | Revenue CAGR: 2.31% | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.55 | Chg30d=+11.87% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.39 | Chg30d=+6.81% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+20.4% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.14 | Chg30d=+0.65% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-2.0% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +65% (up=15, down=2)