(AFG) American Financial - Overview
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 11.403m USD | Total Return: 15.8% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 51.9M
EPS Trend: -31.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 81.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company specializing in property and casualty (P&C) insurance. The firm focuses on niche markets through three primary product categories: property and transportation, specialty casualty, and specialty financial products. Its operations include coverage for commercial trucking, marine, agricultural risks, and executive liability.
The company utilizes a specialty insurance business model, which often targets risks that standard carriers avoid, allowing for more precise underwriting and potential pricing advantages. Within the P&C sector, companies like AFG frequently rely on independent agents and brokers to distribute highly technical products to small and mid-sized businesses. Investors can examine the companys historical underwriting performance on ValueRay to better understand its long-term stability.
Founded in 1872, AFG maintains a significant presence in the excess and surplus (E&S) lines, providing customized risk management solutions for lending and leasing institutions. This focus on specialty segments helps insulate the firm from the broader price competition found in the standard personal lines insurance market.
- Underwriting margins in specialty property and casualty segments drive core earnings growth
- Volatility in agricultural commodity prices impacts crop insurance underwriting profitability
- Fluctuations in interest rates affect investment income from fixed maturity portfolios
- Capital management through special dividends and share repurchases influences total shareholder returns
- Loss reserve adequacy and social inflation trends impact long term specialty casualty margins
| Net Income: 879.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -256.5% < 20% (prev 3.16%; Δ -259.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.67b > Net Income 879.0m |
| Net Debt (467.0m) to EBITDA (1.20b): 0.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.3m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.36% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 3.22k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 32.55% > 50% (prev 33.99%; Δ -1.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.27 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.20b / Interest Expense TTM 84.0m) |
| A: -0.81 (Total Current Assets 3.02b - Total Current Liabilities 23.9b) / Total Assets 25.8b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 3.29b / Total Assets 25.8b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.11b / Avg Total Assets 25.0b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 3.25b / Total Liabilities 21.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.43 = D |
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 1.67b/1.59b, Revenue 8.15b/8.24b) |
| GMI: 0.52 (GM 32.36% / 16.74%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.88 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 8.15b / 8.24b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 879.0m - CFO 1.67b) / TA 25.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 135.73 with a total of 200,138 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.84%,
over one month by +4.77%,
over three months by +2.48% and
over the past year by +15.81%.
American Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 142 | 4.6% |
P/E Trailing = 13.0332
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.4348
P/B = 2.4322
P/EG = 2.3015
Revenue TTM = 8.15b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.11b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 467.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.82b - CCE 1.35b)
Enterprise Value = 11.9b USD (11.4b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 1.35b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.27 (Ebit TTM 1.11b / Interest Expense TTM 84.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.56x (Enterprise Value 11.9b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
FCF Yield = 13.24% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 11.9b)
FCF Margin = 19.27% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 8.15b)
Net Margin = 10.78% (Net Income TTM 879.0m / Revenue TTM 8.15b)
Gross Margin = 32.36% ((Revenue TTM 8.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.13% (prev 48.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 11.9b / Total Assets 25.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.62% (Interest Expense 84.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 20.08% (48.0m / 239.0m)
NOPAT = 891.1m (EBIT 1.11b * (1 - 20.08%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 3.02b / Total Current Liabilities 23.9b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.68b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.39 (Net Debt 467.0m / EBITDA 1.20b)
Debt / FCF = 0.30 (Net Debt 467.0m / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.51% (Net Income 879.0m / Total Assets 25.8b)
RoE = 18.76% (Net Income TTM 879.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.69b)
RoCE = 17.14% (EBIT 1.11b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.69b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 150.3% (NOPAT 891.1m / Invested Capital 593.0m)
WACC = 6.83% (E(11.4b)/V(13.2b) * Re(7.33%) + D(1.82b)/V(13.2b) * Rd(4.62%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -56.57 | Cagr: -0.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.69% ; FCFF base≈1.51b ; Y1≈1.65b ; Y5≈2.05b
[DCF] Fair Price = 372.5 (EV 31.4b - Net Debt 467.0m = Equity 30.9b / Shares 83.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -31.54 | EPS CAGR: -1.55% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 81.88 | Revenue CAGR: 3.66% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=-1.90% | Revisions=-11% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.17 | Chg30d=+23.35% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.67 | Chg30d=+5.02% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+13.4% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.05 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+3.3% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50%