AFG Stock Analysis: American Financial | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.834m USD | 12M Return: 19.3% | US0259321042 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 69.3M
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that provides property and casualty insurance products across the United States. Founded in 1872 and listed on the NYSE since 1983, the company operates through two main segments: Property and Casualty Insurance and Other. It distributes its products primarily through independent insurance agents and brokers.
AFGs property and transportation offerings include physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks, specialty transportation, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property lines. Its specialty casualty business covers excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, workers compensation, and tailored programs for small to mid-sized businesses.
The company also provides specialty financial insurance products such as risk management programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. Originally named American Financial Group Holdings Inc, the company adopted its current name in July 1997.
As a Multi-line Insurance provider within the Financials sector, AFG operates in a competitive industry that includes major players such as Berkshire Hathaway, The Hartford, and CNA Financial. The P&C insurance industry is heavily regulated at the state level, with pricing and underwriting practices shaped by catastrophe exposure, reinsurance costs, and reserve adequacy requirements.
- Specialty P&C rate increases expand underwriting margins
- Investment income benefits from elevated interest rate environment
- Catastrophe losses pressure quarterly combined ratio results
| Net Income: 1.02b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.41% < 20% (prev 10.57%; Δ -18.98% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 1.57b > Net Income 1.02b |
| Net Debt (-12.1b) to EBITDA (1.43b): -8.51 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (71.0m) vs 12m ago -14.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.62% > 18% (prev 16.83%; Δ 0.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 25.95% > 50% (prev 30.66%; Δ -4.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 93.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 26.1b - Total Current Liabilities 26.7b) / Total Assets 35.7b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 3.63b / Total Assets 35.7b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Avg Total Assets 31.3b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 4.73b / Total Liabilities 31.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.65 = B |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 10.2b/2.03b, Revenue 8.12b/8.22b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 16.83% / 17.62%) |
| AQI: 0.31 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.85) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 8.12b / 8.22b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 1.02b - CFO 1.57b) / TA 35.7b) |
| Beneish M = -1.84 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 161.19 with a total of 515,580 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.15%, over one month by +12.86%, over three months by +12.41% and over the past year by +19.29%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 156.90 (which is 2.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
American Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.57. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFG.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 154.5 | -4.2% |
P/E Trailing = 12.624
P/E Forward = 10.8696
P/S = 1.5929
P/B = 2.6316
P/EG = 2.3015
Revenue TTM = 8.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.34b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.43b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -12.1b USD (calculated: Debt 1.82b - CCE 14.0b)
Enterprise Value = 695.8m USD (12.8b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 14.0b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.41 (Ebit TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 93.0m)
EV/FCF = 0.49x (Enterprise Value 695.8m / FCF TTM 1.43b)
FCF Yield = 205.7% (FCF TTM 1.43b / Enterprise Value 695.8m)
FCF Margin = 17.63% (FCF TTM 1.43b / Revenue TTM 8.12b)
Net Margin = 12.56% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 8.12b)
Gross Margin = 17.62% ((Revenue TTM 8.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.69b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 49.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.02 (Enterprise Value 695.8m / Total Assets 35.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.11% (Interest Expense 93.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 21.84% (285.0m / 1.30b)
NOPAT = 1.05b (EBIT 1.34b * (1 - 21.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 26.1b / Total Current Liabilities 26.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = -8.51 (Net Debt -12.1b / EBITDA 1.43b)
Debt / FCF = -8.48 (Net Debt -12.1b / FCF TTM 1.43b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.26% (Net Income 1.02b / Total Assets 35.7b)
RoE = 21.42% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.76b)
RoCE = 20.36% (EBIT 1.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.76b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 12.14% (NOPAT 1.05b / Invested Capital 8.63b)
WACC = 5.68% (E(12.8b)/V(14.7b) * Re(5.92%) + D(1.82b)/V(14.7b) * Rd(5.11%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 5.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -58.51 | Cagr: -7.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.55b ; Y1≈1.36b ; Y5≈1.10b
[DCF] Fair Price = 359.4 (EV 17.7b - Net Debt -12.1b = Equity 29.8b / Shares 82.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 45.71 | EPS CAGR: 4.31% | SUE: 2.05 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 70.53 | Revenue CAGR: 2.31% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=2.77 | Chg30d=-0.12% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.58 | Chg30d=+1.56% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+22.2% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.11 | Chg30d=-0.27% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-3.8% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=4, down=3)