AFG Stock Analysis: American Financial | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 11.789m USD | 12M Return: 18.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 65.6M
EPS Trend: -31.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 80.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) is a Cincinnati-based insurance holding company that has operated since 1872, providing property and casualty (P&C) insurance products across the United States through two reporting segments: Property and Casualty Insurance and Other. The companys P&C segment offers three main product lines: property and transportation insurance (covering trucks, buses, marine, agricultural, and other commercial property); specialty casualty insurance (including excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella, workers compensation, and tailored programs for small to mid-sized businesses); and specialty financial insurance (risk management for lenders and lessors, fidelity and surety, and trade credit). AFG distributes these products exclusively through independent insurance agents and brokers, and the company was originally incorporated as American Financial Group Holdings Inc before adopting its current name in July 1997.
As a multi-line insurance holding company, AFG generates revenue primarily by underwriting premiums and investing the resulting float, with profitability dependent on claims experience, loss reserves, and investment returns. Its emphasis on specialty and niche commercial lines-rather than personal auto or homeowners coverage-positions it within a segment that typically commands higher premium rates in exchange for underwriting non-standard or hard-to-place risks, while its reliance on the independent agency channel means growth is largely tied to expanding relationships with third-party brokers rather than direct-to-consumer sales.
- Specialty P&C pricing momentum supports underwriting margin expansion
- Catastrophe losses from severe weather pressure combined ratio
- Investment income growth accelerates as portfolio yields reset higher
| Net Income: 879.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -152.7% < 20% (prev 3.16%; Δ -155.8% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 1.67b > Net Income 879.0m |
| Net Debt (-300.0m) to EBITDA (1.29b): -0.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.3m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.07% > 18% (prev 16.74%; Δ 1.34% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.66% > 50% (prev 33.99%; Δ -5.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.20b / Interest Expense TTM 84.0m) |
| A: -0.38 (Total Current Assets 11.4b - Total Current Liabilities 23.7b) / Total Assets 32.4b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 3.29b / Total Assets 32.4b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.20b / Avg Total Assets 28.3b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 4.68b / Total Liabilities 27.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.72 = D |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 8.03b/1.59b, Revenue 8.11b/8.24b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 16.74% / 18.07%) |
| AQI: 0.74 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 8.11b / 8.24b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 879.0m - CFO 1.67b) / TA 32.4b) |
| Beneish M = -1.62 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of July 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 141.45 with a total of 233,818 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.84%, over one month by +5.97%, over three months by +8.93% and over the past year by +18.39%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 137.50 (which is 2.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
American Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 147.2 | 4% |
P/E Trailing = 13.4748
P/E Forward = 11.534
P/S = 1.4585
P/B = 2.5201
P/EG = 2.3015
Revenue TTM = 8.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.20b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.29b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -300.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.82b - CCE 2.12b)
Enterprise Value = 11.5b USD (11.8b + Debt 1.82b - CCE 2.12b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.27 (Ebit TTM 1.20b / Interest Expense TTM 84.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.31x (Enterprise Value 11.5b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
FCF Yield = 13.67% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 11.5b)
FCF Margin = 19.37% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 8.11b)
Net Margin = 10.84% (Net Income TTM 879.0m / Revenue TTM 8.11b)
Gross Margin = 18.07% ((Revenue TTM 8.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.21% (prev 22.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.36 (Enterprise Value 11.5b / Total Assets 32.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.62% (Interest Expense 84.0m / Debt 1.82b)
Taxrate = 21.17% (236.0m / 1.11b)
NOPAT = 945.2m (EBIT 1.20b * (1 - 21.17%))
Current Ratio = 0.48 (Total Current Assets 11.4b / Total Current Liabilities 23.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 1.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.68b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.23 (Net Debt -300.0m / EBITDA 1.29b)
Debt / FCF = -0.19 (Net Debt -300.0m / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.11% (Net Income 879.0m / Total Assets 32.4b)
RoE = 18.76% (Net Income TTM 879.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.69b)
RoCE = 18.43% (EBIT 1.20b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.69b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 11.47% (NOPAT 945.2m / Invested Capital 8.24b)
WACC = 6.57% (E(11.8b)/V(13.6b) * Re(7.02%) + D(1.82b)/V(13.6b) * Rd(4.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -81.24 | Cagr: -0.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.69% ; FCFF base≈1.51b ; Y1≈1.65b ; Y5≈2.05b
[DCF] Fair Price = 381.7 (EV 31.4b - Net Debt -300.0m = Equity 31.7b / Shares 83.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -31.54 | EPS CAGR: -1.55% | SUE: -0.50 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.96 | Revenue CAGR: 3.54% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=-0.85% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.17 | Chg30d=-0.05% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.60 | Chg30d=-0.19% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+12.7% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.06 | Chg30d=-0.05% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+4.0% | GrowthRev=+6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +28% (up=10, down=5)