AFL Stock Analysis: Aflac | NYSE
Insurance - Life | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 59.339m USD | 12M Return: 10.2% | US0010551028 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 245M
EPS Trend: 95.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -53.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Aflac Incorporated is a supplemental insurance provider operating through two main segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. Its Japan segment focuses on cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and unique savings-oriented products like GIFT, WAYS, and Tsumitasu insurance, while the U.S. segment offers accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance. The company also sells hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, short-term disability, absence management, and cafeteria plan products, distributing them through a multi-channel network that includes independent corporate agencies, affiliated corporate agencies, banks, career agents, and brokers. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Columbus, Georgia, Aflac has been publicly traded since its 1984 IPO.
As a supplemental insurer, Aflacs products are designed to pay benefits alongside-not in place of-primary health or life insurance, helping policyholders cover out-of-pocket costs such as copays, deductibles, and living expenses during illness. Its dual geographic structure, with a major presence in Japan where it ranks among the largest foreign-affiliated insurers, distinguishes it from most U.S. peers and gives it meaningful exposure to Japans large and aging population.
- Yen weakness pressures Aflac Japan reported earnings translation
- Higher yen investment yields lift insurance portfolio income
- Capital returns via buybacks support double-digit earnings per share growth
| Net Income: 4.86b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 525.3% < 20% (prev 446.5%; Δ 78.73% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 2.65b > Net Income 4.86b |
| Net Debt (-30.2b) to EBITDA (6.69b): -4.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 11.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (505.6m) vs 12m ago -6.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.91% > 18% (prev 28.88%; Δ 25.04% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.03% > 50% (prev 12.99%; Δ 2.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.03 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.82b / Interest Expense TTM 242.0m) |
| A: 0.82 (Total Current Assets 104b - Total Current Liabilities 9.22b) / Total Assets 116b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 56.2b / Total Assets 116b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 5.82b / Avg Total Assets 120b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 30.3b / Total Liabilities 85.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.65 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.67 (Receivables 1.63b/873.0m, Revenue 18.1b/16.2b) |
| GMI: 0.54 (GM 28.88% / 53.91%) |
| AQI: 0.24 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 18.1b / 16.2b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 4.86b - CFO 2.65b) / TA 116b) |
| Beneish M = -3.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 117.21 with a total of 1,859,642 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.59%, over one month by -5.87%, over three months by +2.18% and over the past year by +10.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 114.00 (which is 2.7% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Aflac has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.93. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 118.5 | 1.1% |
P/E Trailing = 12.7681
P/E Forward = 14.5349
P/S = 3.284
P/B = 1.9189
P/EG = 1.1813
Revenue TTM = 18.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.82b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.69b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.64b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 740.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.81b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 86.0m
Net Debt = -30.2b USD (calculated: Debt 8.81b - CCE 39.0b)
Enterprise Value = 29.1b USD (59.3b + Debt 8.81b - CCE 39.0b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.03 (Ebit TTM 5.82b / Interest Expense TTM 242.0m)
EV/FCF = 6.27x (Enterprise Value 29.1b / FCF TTM 4.64b)
FCF Yield = 15.94% (FCF TTM 4.64b / Enterprise Value 29.1b)
FCF Margin = 25.65% (FCF TTM 4.64b / Revenue TTM 18.1b)
Net Margin = 26.88% (Net Income TTM 4.86b / Revenue TTM 18.1b)
Gross Margin = 53.91% ((Revenue TTM 18.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.64% (prev 57.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.25 (Enterprise Value 29.1b / Total Assets 116b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.75% (Interest Expense 242.0m / Debt 8.81b)
Taxrate = 15.97% (924.0m / 5.79b)
NOPAT = 4.89b (EBIT 5.82b * (1 - 15.97%))
Current Ratio = 11.01 (Total Current Assets 104b / Total Current Liabilities 9.47b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 8.81b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 30.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.52 (Net Debt -30.2b / EBITDA 6.69b)
Debt / FCF = -6.51 (Net Debt -30.2b / FCF TTM 4.64b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 29.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.04% (Net Income 4.86b / Total Assets 116b)
RoE = 16.42% (Net Income TTM 4.86b / Total Stockholder Equity 29.6b)
RoCE = 15.20% (EBIT 5.82b / Capital Employed (Equity 29.6b + L.T.Debt 8.64b))
RoIC = 4.59% (NOPAT 4.89b / Invested Capital 107b)
WACC = 5.48% (E(59.3b)/V(68.2b) * Re(5.95%) + D(8.81b)/V(68.2b) * Rd(2.75%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 5.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.07 | Cagr: -5.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈4.11b ; Y1≈4.71b ; Y5≈6.93b
[DCF] Fair Price = 268.3 (EV 104b - Net Debt -30.2b = Equity 134b / Shares 501.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.64 | EPS CAGR: 8.47% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -53.74 | Revenue CAGR: -3.37% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.79 | Chg30d=+0.56% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.02 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=-6.3% | GrowthRev=-3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.54 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=-42% | GrowthEPS=+7.5% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -41% (up=5, down=14)