AFL Stock Analysis: Aflac | NYSE
Insurance - Life | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 62.050m USD | 12M Return: 25.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 267M
EPS Trend: 95.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -59.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Aflac Incorporated is a supplemental insurance provider operating through two main segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. Its Japan segment focuses on cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and unique savings-oriented products like GIFT, WAYS, and Tsumitasu insurance, while the U.S. segment offers accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance. The company also sells hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, short-term disability, absence management, and cafeteria plan products, distributing them through a multi-channel network that includes independent corporate agencies, affiliated corporate agencies, banks, career agents, and brokers. Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Columbus, Georgia, Aflac has been publicly traded since its 1984 IPO.
As a supplemental insurer, Aflacs products are designed to pay benefits alongside-not in place of-primary health or life insurance, helping policyholders cover out-of-pocket costs such as copays, deductibles, and living expenses during illness. Its dual geographic structure, with a major presence in Japan where it ranks among the largest foreign-affiliated insurers, distinguishes it from most U.S. peers and gives it meaningful exposure to Japans large and aging population.
- Yen weakness pressures Aflac Japan reported earnings translation
- Higher yen investment yields lift insurance portfolio income
- Capital returns via buybacks support double-digit earnings per share growth
| Net Income: 4.64b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 356.1% < 20% (prev 422.8%; Δ -66.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 2.93b > Net Income 4.64b |
| Net Debt (-29.9b) to EBITDA (6.52b): -4.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 8.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (514.8m) vs 12m ago -5.87% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.76% > 18% (prev 34.01%; Δ 13.75% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.41% > 50% (prev 14.26%; Δ 1.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.64b / Interest Expense TTM 230.0m) |
| A: 0.56 (Total Current Assets 73.1b - Total Current Liabilities 8.25b) / Total Assets 116b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 55.7b / Total Assets 116b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 5.64b / Avg Total Assets 118b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 30.0b / Total Liabilities 86.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.91 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.73 (Receivables 1.64b/894.0m, Revenue 18.2b/17.1b) |
| GMI: 0.71 (GM 34.01% / 47.76%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 18.2b / 17.1b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 4.64b - CFO 2.93b) / TA 116b) |
| Beneish M = -2.68 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 124.08 with a total of 1,107,445 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.63%, over one month by +6.46%, over three months by +8.77% and over the past year by +25.32%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 120.90 (which is 2.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Aflac has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.93. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 114.9 | -7.4% |
P/E Trailing = 13.9326
P/E Forward = 14.5349
P/S = 3.4259
P/B = 2.071
P/EG = 1.1813
Revenue TTM = 18.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.64b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.52b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 7.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 86.0m
Net Debt = -29.9b USD (calculated: Debt 7.99b - CCE 37.9b)
Enterprise Value = 32.2b USD (62.1b + Debt 7.99b - CCE 37.9b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.53 (Ebit TTM 5.64b / Interest Expense TTM 230.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.29x (Enterprise Value 32.2b / FCF TTM 4.41b)
FCF Yield = 13.72% (FCF TTM 4.41b / Enterprise Value 32.2b)
FCF Margin = 24.22% (FCF TTM 4.41b / Revenue TTM 18.2b)
Net Margin = 25.44% (Net Income TTM 4.64b / Revenue TTM 18.2b)
Gross Margin = 47.76% ((Revenue TTM 18.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.52b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.54% (prev 59.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.28 (Enterprise Value 32.2b / Total Assets 116b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.88% (Interest Expense 230.0m / Debt 7.99b)
Taxrate = 17.41% (977.0m / 5.61b)
NOPAT = 4.66b (EBIT 5.64b * (1 - 17.41%))
Current Ratio = 8.60 (Total Current Assets 73.1b / Total Current Liabilities 8.50b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 7.99b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 30.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.58 (Net Debt -29.9b / EBITDA 6.52b)
Debt / FCF = -6.77 (Net Debt -29.9b / FCF TTM 4.41b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 28.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.92% (Net Income 4.64b / Total Assets 116b)
RoE = 16.08% (Net Income TTM 4.64b / Total Stockholder Equity 28.8b)
RoCE = 15.39% (EBIT 5.64b / Capital Employed (Equity 28.8b + L.T.Debt 7.82b))
RoIC = 4.35% (NOPAT 4.66b / Invested Capital 107b)
WACC = 5.66% (E(62.1b)/V(70.0b) * Re(6.08%) + D(7.99b)/V(70.0b) * Rd(2.88%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 6.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.15 | Cagr: -5.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.63% ; FCFF base≈4.26b ; Y1≈4.62b ; Y5≈5.71b
[DCF] Fair Price = 230.4 (EV 87.4b - Net Debt -29.9b = Equity 117b / Shares 509.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 9.69% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.32 | EPS CAGR: 10.70% | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -59.93 | Revenue CAGR: -3.81% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.77 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.78 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.04 | Chg30d=-0.08% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-6.1% | GrowthRev=-3.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.56 | Chg30d=-0.60% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+7.4% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)