AFL Stock Analysis: Aflac | NYSE
Insurance - Life | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 60.146m USD | 12M Return: 12.9% | US0010551028 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 190M
EPS Trend: 95.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -53.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Aflac Incorporated provides supplemental health and life insurance products through two operating segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and specialty savings-type policies such as GIFT, WAYS, and child endowment, while the U.S. segment distributes accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life coverage, along with ancillary products like pet, hearing, and Medicare supplement insurance.
The company distributes its policies through a multi-channel network that includes individual and affiliated corporate agencies, banks, career agents, and brokers, targeting individuals, families, and business owners. As a Large Cap Financials issuer within the Life & Health Insurance sub-industry, Aflac is a leading provider of supplemental insurance, with Japan representing its largest and most established market. The company was founded in 1955, is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia, and has been publicly listed on the NYSE since 1984.
- Yen weakness pressures Aflac Japan earnings translation
- U.S. worksite sales accelerate premium income growth
- Aggressive buyback program supports per-share earnings
| Net Income: 4.86b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 525.3% < 20% (prev 446.5%; Δ 78.73% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 2.65b > Net Income 4.86b |
| Net Debt (-30.2b) to EBITDA (6.91b): -4.38 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 11.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (505.6m) vs 12m ago -6.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.91% > 18% (prev 28.88%; Δ 25.04% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 15.03% > 50% (prev 12.99%; Δ 2.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.78 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.00b / Interest Expense TTM 242.0m) |
| A: 0.82 (Total Current Assets 104b - Total Current Liabilities 9.22b) / Total Assets 116b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 56.2b / Total Assets 116b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 6.00b / Avg Total Assets 120b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 30.3b / Total Liabilities 85.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.66 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.67 (Receivables 1.63b/873.0m, Revenue 18.1b/16.2b) |
| GMI: 0.54 (GM 28.88% / 53.91%) |
| AQI: 0.24 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.41) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 18.1b / 16.2b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 4.86b - CFO 2.65b) / TA 116b) |
| Beneish M = -3.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 120.27 with a total of 1,314,092 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.29%, over one month by +4.42%, over three months by -2.58% and over the past year by +12.88%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 117.50 (which is 2.3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Aflac has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AFL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 3
| Analysts Target Price | 117.3 | -2.4% |
P/E Trailing = 12.9
P/E Forward = 15.1976
P/S = 3.3287
P/B = 1.9058
P/EG = 1.1813
Revenue TTM = 18.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 6.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.91b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.64b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 740.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.81b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 86.0m
Net Debt = -30.2b USD (calculated: Debt 8.81b - CCE 39.0b)
Enterprise Value = 29.9b USD (60.1b + Debt 8.81b - CCE 39.0b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.78 (Ebit TTM 6.00b / Interest Expense TTM 242.0m)
EV/FCF = 5.01x (Enterprise Value 29.9b / FCF TTM 5.97b)
FCF Yield = 19.95% (FCF TTM 5.97b / Enterprise Value 29.9b)
FCF Margin = 33.00% (FCF TTM 5.97b / Revenue TTM 18.1b)
Net Margin = 26.88% (Net Income TTM 4.86b / Revenue TTM 18.1b)
Gross Margin = 53.91% ((Revenue TTM 18.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.64% (prev 57.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.26 (Enterprise Value 29.9b / Total Assets 116b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.75% (Interest Expense 242.0m / Debt 8.81b)
Taxrate = 15.97% (924.0m / 5.79b)
NOPAT = 5.04b (EBIT 6.00b * (1 - 15.97%))
Current Ratio = 11.01 (Total Current Assets 104b / Total Current Liabilities 9.47b)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 8.81b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 30.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.38 (Net Debt -30.2b / EBITDA 6.91b)
Debt / FCF = -5.06 (Net Debt -30.2b / FCF TTM 5.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 29.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.04% (Net Income 4.86b / Total Assets 116b)
RoE = 16.42% (Net Income TTM 4.86b / Total Stockholder Equity 29.6b)
RoCE = 15.68% (EBIT 6.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 29.6b + L.T.Debt 8.64b))
RoIC = 4.73% (NOPAT 5.04b / Invested Capital 107b)
WACC = 5.14% (E(60.1b)/V(69.0b) * Re(5.55%) + D(8.81b)/V(69.0b) * Rd(2.75%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 5.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.07 | Cagr: -5.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈4.90b ; Y1≈5.62b ; Y5≈8.27b
[DCF] Fair Price = 308.6 (EV 125b - Net Debt -30.2b = Equity 155b / Shares 501.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.64 | EPS CAGR: 8.47% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -53.74 | Revenue CAGR: -3.37% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=+0.46% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.02 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-6.2% | GrowthRev=-3.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.62 | Chg30d=+0.98% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+8.4% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=9, down=2)