AGL Stock Analysis: agilon health | NYSE
Medical Care Facilities | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.852m USD | 12M Return: 90.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 33.3M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 89.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality
agilon health, Inc. (AGL) is a healthcare services company that partners with primary care physicians to deliver care to seniors across U.S. communities. The company operates a value-based care platform, contracting with physicians on a per-member per-month (PMPM) basis to manage the total healthcare needs of its patients. The PMPM, or capitation, model is a common reimbursement approach within Medicare Advantage and broader value-based care arrangements, where providers are paid a fixed monthly amount per enrolled member rather than per individual service rendered. Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Westerville, Ohio, the company was originally named Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and rebranded to its current name in March 2021.
Listed on the NYSE in April 2021, agilon health is classified within the GICS Health Care sector and Health Care Services sub-industry, and is currently considered a small-cap stock. The companys business model is built on partnering with independent primary care practices to serve senior populations, typically those covered under Medicare Advantage plans, allowing partner physicians to take on risk and share in the savings generated from improved patient outcomes and reduced costs.
- CMS Medicare Advantage rate cuts pressure capitated revenue per member
- Medical cost trends rise, squeezing medical margin and path to profitability
- Geographic expansion with new physician partnerships accelerates senior member growth
| Net Income: -373.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.95 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.84% < 20% (prev 4.61%; Δ -3.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -50.0m > Net Income -373.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (16.7m) vs 12m ago 0.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -2.74% > 18% (prev -0.33%; Δ -2.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 338.6% > 50% (prev 309.8%; Δ 28.75% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -53.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM -369.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.94m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.32b - Total Current Liabilities 1.27b) / Total Assets 1.50b |
| B: -1.28 (Retained Earnings -1.93b / Total Assets 1.50b) |
| C: -0.21 (EBIT TTM -369.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.72b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 181.4m / Total Liabilities 1.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.27 = D |
| DSRI: 0.75 (Receivables 899.7m/1.24b, Revenue 5.82b/5.99b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.81 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 5.82b / 5.99b) |
| TATA: -0.21 (NI -373.5m - CFO -50.0m) / TA 1.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.39 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 111.01 with a total of 190,328 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.51%, over one month by +14.62%, over three months by +695.20% and over the past year by +90.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 88.50 (which is 20.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
agilon health has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.30. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGL.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 60.4 | -45.6% |
P/E Forward = 178.5714
P/S = 0.3182
P/B = 10.2751
Revenue TTM = 5.82b USD
EBIT TTM = -369.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -340.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 36.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.38m
Net Debt = -194.6m USD (calculated: Debt 36.8m - CCE 231.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.66b USD (1.85b + Debt 36.8m - CCE 231.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -53.21 (Ebit TTM -369.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.94m)
EV/FCF = -21.63x (Enterprise Value 1.66b / FCF TTM -76.6m)
FCF Yield = -4.62% (FCF TTM -76.6m / Enterprise Value 1.66b)
FCF Margin = -1.32% (FCF TTM -76.6m / Revenue TTM 5.82b)
Net Margin = -6.42% (Net Income TTM -373.5m / Revenue TTM 5.82b)
Gross Margin = -2.74% ((Revenue TTM 5.82b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 4.10% (prev -6.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 1.66b / Total Assets 1.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 18.86% (Interest Expense 6.94m / Debt 36.8m)
Taxrate = 0.09% (28.0k / 29.9m)
NOPAT = -368.8m (EBIT -369.1m * (1 - 0.09%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.04 (Total Current Assets 1.32b / Total Current Liabilities 1.27b)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 36.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 181.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.57 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -194.6m / EBITDA -340.6m)
Debt / FCF = 2.54 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -194.6m / FCF TTM -76.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 255.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -21.73% (Net Income -373.5m / Total Assets 1.50b)
RoE = -146.0% (Net Income TTM -373.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 255.8m)
RoCE = -136.2% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -369.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 255.8m + L.T.Debt 15.3m))
RoIC = -2.31k% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -368.8m / Invested Capital 15.9m)
WACC = 12.03% (E(1.85b)/V(1.89b) * Re(11.89%) + D(36.8m)/V(1.89b) * Rd(18.86%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 11.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 0.82%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -76.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.72 | Revenue CAGR: 21.05% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+128.85% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.43 | Chg30d=+12.89% | Revisions=+13% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.93 | Chg30d=+12.59% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+87.7% | GrowthRev=-3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.62 | Chg30d=+1.07% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+74.5% | GrowthRev=+6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=31, down=6)