AGM Stock Analysis: Federal Agricultural | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.159m USD | 12M Return: 7.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.6M
EPS Trend: 87.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 61.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) operates as a secondary market provider for loans to U.S. borrowers, structuring its business across seven reportable segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. Its core activities include purchasing and retaining eligible loans and securities, guaranteeing principal and interest payments on securities backed by pools of eligible loans, servicing loans, and issuing long-term standby purchase commitments. The company serves a diverse rural credit ecosystem, spanning agricultural operations, agribusinesses, rural electric cooperatives, broadband and data center infrastructure, and renewable energy projects, while separately managing its funding activities and an investment portfolio held for liquidity purposes. Incorporated in 1987 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., AGM is classified under the Financials sector within the Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry per the GICS framework.
- Net interest margin expansion driven by loan portfolio growth
- Farm sector credit quality weakens amid declining commodity prices
- Renewable energy and broadband infrastructure loan originations accelerate
| Net Income: 216.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.42 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -681.2% < 20% (prev -478.1%; Δ -203.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 221.9m > Net Income 216.9m |
| Current Ratio: 0.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago 17.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.52% > 18% (prev 22.47%; Δ 7.06% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.96% > 50% (prev 5.05%; Δ -1.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 264.0m / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b) |
| A: -0.25 (Total Current Assets 2.51b - Total Current Liabilities 11.8b) / Total Assets 36.7b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.07b / Total Assets 36.7b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 264.0m / Avg Total Assets 34.3b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 1.72b / Total Liabilities 35.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.45 = CCC |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 199.27 with a total of 94,190 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.42%, over one month by +14.89%, over three months by +37.86% and over the past year by +7.62%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 192.20 (which is 3.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Federal Agricultural has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 219.7 | 10.2% |
P/E Trailing = 11.4626
P/E Forward = 9.8717
P/S = 5.4889
P/B = 1.7493
P/EG = 0.8975
Revenue TTM = 1.36b USD
EBIT TTM = 264.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 264.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 23.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.5b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 34.5b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 32.3b USD (calculated: Debt 34.5b - CCE 2.21b)
Enterprise Value = 34.5b USD (2.16b + Debt 34.5b - CCE 2.21b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.24 (Ebit TTM 264.0m / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b)
EV/FCF = 155.3x (Enterprise Value 34.5b / FCF TTM 221.9m)
FCF Yield = 0.64% (FCF TTM 221.9m / Enterprise Value 34.5b)
FCF Margin = 16.35% (FCF TTM 221.9m / Revenue TTM 1.36b)
Net Margin = 15.98% (Net Income TTM 216.9m / Revenue TTM 1.36b)
Gross Margin = 29.52% ((Revenue TTM 1.36b - Cost of Revenue TTM 956.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.74% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 34.5b / Total Assets 36.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.25% (Interest Expense 1.12b / Debt 34.5b)
Taxrate = 17.86% (47.2m / 264.0m)
NOPAT = 216.9m (EBIT 264.0m * (1 - 17.86%))
Current Ratio = 0.21 (Total Current Assets 2.51b / Total Current Liabilities 11.8b)
Debt / Equity = 20.10 (Debt 34.5b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.72b)
Debt / EBITDA = 122.3 (Net Debt 32.3b / EBITDA 264.0m)
Debt / FCF = 145.6 (Net Debt 32.3b / FCF TTM 221.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.67b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.63% (Net Income 216.9m / Total Assets 36.7b)
RoE = 13.01% (Net Income TTM 216.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.67b)
RoCE = 1.07% (EBIT 264.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.67b + L.T.Debt 23.0b))
RoIC = 0.60% (NOPAT 216.9m / Invested Capital 36.4b)
WACC = 3.06% (E(2.16b)/V(36.7b) * Re(9.39%) + D(34.5b)/V(36.7b) * Rd(3.25%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.42 | Cagr: 7.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈263.5m ; Y1≈231.1m ; Y5≈186.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.00b - Net Debt 32.3b = -29.3b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 87.70 | EPS CAGR: 6.42% | SUE: 0.87 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 61.21 | Revenue CAGR: 9.37% | SUE: 0.84 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.89 | Chg30d=+2.02% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=19.52 | Chg30d=+3.39% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+17.2% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=21.35 | Chg30d=+2.25% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+9.4% | GrowthRev=+12.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%