AGM Stock Analysis: Federal Agricultural | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.303m USD | 12M Return: 37.1% | US3131483063 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 25.0M
EPS Trend: 89.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 45.6%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, commonly known as Farmer Mac, operates as a secondary market provider for agricultural and rural infrastructure loans across the United States. The company is structured around seven business segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. Its core activities include purchasing and retaining eligible loans and securities, guaranteeing principal and interest payments on pool-backed securities, servicing loans, and issuing long-term standby purchase commitments. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, D.C., trading on the NYSE under the ticker AGM.
As a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) chartered by Congress, Farmer Mac plays a unique role in providing liquidity to lenders serving rural America, extending beyond traditional farm loans to include financing for rural utilities, broadband infrastructure, and renewable energy projects. Its diversified segment structure reflects a broader mandate to support rural economic development beyond just agricultural production.
- Net interest margin expands on higher interest rate environment
- Rural broadband and renewable energy loan volumes accelerate
- Farm & Ranch credit quality weakens amid falling commodity prices
| Net Income: 229.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 564.5% < 20% (prev -476.9%; Δ 1.04k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 310.1m > Net Income 229.0m |
| Net Debt (14.2b) to EBITDA (241.1m): 59.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.61 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (10.9m) vs 12m ago -0.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.22% > 18% (prev 23.19%; Δ 7.03% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.88% > 50% (prev 4.86%; Δ -0.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 273.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b) |
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 20.8b - Total Current Liabilities 12.9b) / Total Assets 39.3b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.12b / Total Assets 39.3b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 273.5m / Avg Total Assets 36.1b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 1.85b / Total Liabilities 37.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.52 = BB |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 208.58 with a total of 138,914 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.80%, over one month by -7.08%, over three months by +4.89% and over the past year by +37.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 200.40 (which is 3.9% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Federal Agricultural has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 257 | 23.2% |
P/E Trailing = 11.8031
P/E Forward = 9.3721
P/S = 5.6358
P/B = 1.8861
P/EG = 0.721
Revenue TTM = 1.40b USD
EBIT TTM = 273.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 241.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 24.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.9b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 34.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.2b USD (calculated: Debt 34.7b - CCE 20.5b)
Enterprise Value = 16.5b USD (2.30b + Debt 34.7b - CCE 20.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.24 (Ebit TTM 273.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b)
EV/FCF = 80.63x (Enterprise Value 16.5b / FCF TTM 205.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.24% (FCF TTM 205.0m / Enterprise Value 16.5b)
FCF Margin = 14.62% (FCF TTM 205.0m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Net Margin = 16.32% (Net Income TTM 229.0m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Gross Margin = 30.22% ((Revenue TTM 1.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 978.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.22% (prev 24.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.42 (Enterprise Value 16.5b / Total Assets 39.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.32% (Interest Expense 1.15b / Debt 34.7b)
Taxrate = 18.35% (51.5m / 280.4m)
NOPAT = 223.3m (EBIT 273.5m * (1 - 18.35%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 20.8b / Total Current Liabilities 13.2b)
Debt / Equity = 18.71 (Debt 34.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 59.01 (Net Debt 14.2b / EBITDA 241.1m)
Debt / FCF = 69.40 (Net Debt 14.2b / FCF TTM 205.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.63% (Net Income 229.0m / Total Assets 39.3b)
RoE = 13.13% (Net Income TTM 229.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.74b)
RoCE = 1.06% (EBIT 273.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.74b + L.T.Debt 24.0b))
RoIC = 0.57% (NOPAT 223.3m / Invested Capital 39.2b)
WACC = 3.11% (E(2.30b)/V(37.0b) * Re(9.18%) + D(34.7b)/V(37.0b) * Rd(3.32%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 50.35 | Cagr: -0.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.95% ; FCFF base≈201.9m ; Y1≈209.4m ; Y5≈236.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.66b - Net Debt 14.2b = -10.6b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 89.54 | EPS CAGR: 5.65% | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 45.57 | Revenue CAGR: 6.19% | SUE: 0.91 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.28 | Chg30d=+7.98% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.88 | Chg30d=+6.97% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+25.3% | GrowthRev=+17.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=23.14 | Chg30d=+8.38% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+10.8% | GrowthRev=+12.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +75% (up=9, down=0)