(AGO) Assured Guaranty - Ratings and Ratios
Credit Insurance, Reinsurance, Asset Management
AGO EPS (Earnings per Share)
AGO Revenue
Description: AGO Assured Guaranty
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) is a leading provider of credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets globally, operating through two main segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The companys financial guaranty insurance protects holders of debt instruments from defaults, while its specialty insurance and reinsurance products cater to transactions with similar risk profiles.
Key areas of focus for AGO include U.S. public finance obligations, such as municipal bonds, and non-U.S. public finance obligations, like regulated utilities and infrastructure finance. The company also insures and reinsures structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities and consumer receivables securities. Additionally, AGO offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate and aircraft residual value insurance, and provides asset management services, including investment advisory services.
From a performance perspective, AGOs return on equity (RoE) stands at 7.93%, indicating a relatively stable return for shareholders. To further evaluate the companys performance, we can examine other key performance indicators (KPIs) such as the loss ratio, expense ratio, and combined ratio, which are crucial in assessing the profitability of an insurance company. AGOs debt-to-equity ratio and interest coverage ratio can also provide insights into its capital structure and ability to meet interest payments.
To gauge AGOs growth prospects, we can analyze its revenue growth, net income margin, and book value per share growth. The companys ability to maintain a strong capital position and manage its risk exposure will be crucial in driving long-term growth. Furthermore, AGOs competitive positioning within the financial guaranty insurance market, its underwriting standards, and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions will also impact its future performance.
AGO Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 4,011m |
| Sub-Industry | Property & Casualty Insurance |
| IPO / Inception | 2004-04-23 |
AGO Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 29.1% |
| Fundamental | 57.8% |
| Dividend Rating | 69.3% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -15.2% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
AGO Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 1.64% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.53% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 11.58% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 16.9% |
AGO Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | -8.9% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -56.2% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 92.9% |
| CAGR 5y | 15.57% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.52 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 1.56 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.54 |
| Alpha | -17.12 |
| Beta | 0.909 |
| Volatility | 22.35% |
| Current Volume | 250.2k |
| Average Volume 20d | 250.2k |
| Stop Loss | 78.5 (-3.1%) |
| Signal | -0.33 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (468.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 61.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.08pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 802.9% (prev 1428 %; Δ -625.2pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 228.0m <= Net Income 468.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.40b) to EBITDA (674.0m) ratio: 2.08 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 31.81 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (49.4m) change vs 12m ago -10.18% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 84.66% (prev 66.40%; Δ 18.26pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 8.41% (prev 4.21%; Δ 4.20pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.38 (EBITDA TTM 674.0m / Interest Expense TTM 90.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 7.11
| (A) 0.68 = (Total Current Assets 8.43b - Total Current Liabilities 265.0m) / Total Assets 12.10b |
| (B) 0.48 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.86b / Total Assets 12.10b |
| (C) 0.03 = EBIT TTM 304.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.09b |
| (D) 0.88 = Book Value of Equity 5.63b / Total Liabilities 6.37b |
| Total Rating: 7.11 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 57.80
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt = -0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.40% = 3.20 |
| 3. FCF Margin 22.42% = 5.60 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.30 = 2.46 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.08 = -0.15 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -3.58)% = -4.47 |
| 7. RoE 8.34% = 0.70 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 14.24% = 1.07 |
| 9. EPS Trend -1.96% = -0.10 |
What is the price of AGO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.83%, over one month by -0.56%, over three months by -0.79% and over the past year by -1.49%.
Is Assured Guaranty a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AGO is around 83.41 USD . This means that AGO is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 3%.
Is AGO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 105.8 | 30.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 105.8 | 30.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 91.7 | 13.2% |
Last update: 2025-10-04 03:45
AGO Fundamental Data Overview
P/E Trailing = 9.2615
P/E Forward = 12.0337
P/S = 4.5019
P/B = 0.7144
P/EG = 2.52
Beta = 0.909
Revenue TTM = 1.02b USD
EBIT TTM = 304.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 674.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.70b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.40b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.56b USD (4.01b + Debt 1.70b - CCE 2.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.38 (Ebit TTM 304.0m / Interest Expense TTM 90.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.40% (FCF TTM 228.0m / Enterprise Value 3.56b)
FCF Margin = 22.42% (FCF TTM 228.0m / Revenue TTM 1.02b)
Net Margin = 46.02% (Net Income TTM 468.0m / Revenue TTM 1.02b)
Gross Margin = 84.66% ((Revenue TTM 1.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 156.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.42% (prev 86.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.29 (Enterprise Value 3.56b / Total Assets 12.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.35% (Interest Expense 23.0m / Debt 1.70b)
Taxrate = 20.30% (27.0m / 133.0m)
NOPAT = 242.3m (EBIT 304.0m * (1 - 20.30%))
Current Ratio = 31.81 (Total Current Assets 8.43b / Total Current Liabilities 265.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 1.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.63b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.08 (Net Debt 1.40b / EBITDA 674.0m)
Debt / FCF = 6.14 (Net Debt 1.40b / FCF TTM 228.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.87% (Net Income 468.0m / Total Assets 12.10b)
RoE = 8.34% (Net Income TTM 468.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.61b)
RoCE = 4.16% (EBIT 304.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.61b + L.T.Debt 1.70b))
RoIC = 3.31% (NOPAT 242.3m / Invested Capital 7.31b)
WACC = 6.89% (E(4.01b)/V(5.71b) * Re(9.36%) + D(1.70b)/V(5.71b) * Rd(1.35%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 9.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -7.95%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.74% ; FCFE base≈228.0m ; Y1≈149.7m ; Y5≈68.5m
Fair Price DCF = 23.00 (DCF Value 1.09b / Shares Outstanding 47.6m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -1.96 | EPS CAGR: -29.58% | SUE: -0.90 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 14.24 | Revenue CAGR: 122.7% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for AGO Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle