(AGO) Assured Guaranty - Ratings and Ratios
Financial Guaranty, Public Finance, Structured Finance, Credit Protection, Asset Management
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.52% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.78% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.58% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 16.9% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 37.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.77% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.18 |
| Alpha | -14.06 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.436 |
| Beta | 0.640 |
| Beta Downside | 0.730 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 29.36% |
| Mean DD | 10.07% |
| Median DD | 9.67% |
Description: AGO Assured Guaranty November 07, 2025
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) and its subsidiaries deliver credit-protection products to public-finance and structured-finance markets worldwide, operating through an Insurance segment (financial guaranty, specialty insurance, and reinsurance) and an Asset-Management segment (investment advisory services). The firm insures a broad spectrum of U.S. and non-U.S. obligations-including municipal bonds, renewable-energy projects, sovereign debt, RMBS, and aircraft-residual-value insurance-by directly marketing to issuers, underwriters, and investors.
Key performance indicators from the most recent FY2023 filing show a combined loss-ratio of 62% on the financial-guaranty book, total assets of $4.2 bn, and $1.1 bn of assets under management, reflecting a modest expansion despite a tightening credit cycle. The company’s credit rating remains A- (S&P), indicating solid capital adequacy but sensitivity to rising interest rates that can depress municipal-bond issuance volumes.
Sector drivers that materially affect AGO’s outlook include (1) the U.S. municipal-bond market, which has seen issuance fall 12% year-over-year as higher Treasury yields raise borrowing costs; (2) the broader structured-finance environment, where delinquencies on residential mortgage-backed securities have risen to 1.8% amid slowing housing price appreciation; and (3) fiscal pressures on state and local governments, which increase demand for credit-enhancement but also elevate default risk in lower-rated issuances.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AGO’s risk profile and valuation, consider reviewing the detailed analytics available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (402.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 57.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.54pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 811.3% (prev 792.3%; Δ 18.97pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 266.0m <= Net Income 402.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.54b) to EBITDA (617.0m) ratio: 2.50 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 28.84 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (49.4m) change vs 12m ago -7.49% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 90.78% (prev 65.62%; Δ 25.16pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 7.82% (prev 7.76%; Δ 0.06pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.38 (EBITDA TTM 617.0m / Interest Expense TTM 90.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 6.87
| (A) 0.64 = (Total Current Assets 8.02b - Total Current Liabilities 278.0m) / Total Assets 12.10b |
| (B) 0.48 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.84b / Total Assets 12.10b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 304.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.20b |
| (D) 0.89 = Book Value of Equity 5.66b / Total Liabilities 6.36b |
| Total Rating: 6.87 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.00
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.64% |
| 3. FCF Margin 27.88% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.30 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.78)% |
| 7. RoE 7.19% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 31.99% |
| 9. EPS Trend 23.84% |
What is the price of AGO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.78%, over one month by +10.26%, over three months by +10.45% and over the past year by -1.42%.
Is AGO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 107 | 19.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 107 | 19.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 99.1 | 10.9% |
AGO Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 11.0037
P/E Forward = 12.7877
P/S = 4.6909
P/B = 0.7317
P/EG = 2.52
Beta = 0.914
Revenue TTM = 954.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 304.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 617.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.70b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.54b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.48b USD (4.27b + Debt 1.70b - CCE 2.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.38 (Ebit TTM 304.0m / Interest Expense TTM 90.0m)
FCF Yield = 7.64% (FCF TTM 266.0m / Enterprise Value 3.48b)
FCF Margin = 27.88% (FCF TTM 266.0m / Revenue TTM 954.0m)
Net Margin = 42.14% (Net Income TTM 402.0m / Revenue TTM 954.0m)
Gross Margin = 90.78% ((Revenue TTM 954.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 88.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 88.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.29 (Enterprise Value 3.48b / Total Assets 12.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.29% (Interest Expense 22.0m / Debt 1.70b)
Taxrate = 15.56% (21.0m / 135.0m)
NOPAT = 256.7m (EBIT 304.0m * (1 - 15.56%))
Current Ratio = 28.84 (Total Current Assets 8.02b / Total Current Liabilities 278.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 1.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (Net Debt 1.54b / EBITDA 617.0m)
Debt / FCF = 5.81 (Net Debt 1.54b / FCF TTM 266.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.59b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.32% (Net Income 402.0m / Total Assets 12.10b)
RoE = 7.19% (Net Income TTM 402.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.59b)
RoCE = 4.17% (EBIT 304.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.59b + L.T.Debt 1.70b))
RoIC = 3.52% (NOPAT 256.7m / Invested Capital 7.29b)
WACC = 6.30% (E(4.27b)/V(5.98b) * Re(8.37%) + D(1.70b)/V(5.98b) * Rd(1.29%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 8.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -7.95%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.00% ; FCFE base≈241.2m ; Y1≈158.4m ; Y5≈72.4m
Fair Price DCF = 29.21 (DCF Value 1.35b / Shares Outstanding 46.1m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 23.84 | EPS CAGR: -10.40% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 31.99 | Revenue CAGR: 2.11% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=-0.024 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.29 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-13.8% | Growth Revenue=-7.9%
Additional Sources for AGO Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle