(AGO) Assured Guaranty - Overview
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Insurance - Specialty | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 3.405m USD | Total Return: -10.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 28.6M
EPS Trend: 26.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -5.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) provides credit enhancement and financial guaranty insurance for public finance and structured finance markets globally. The company operates through two primary segments: Insurance and Asset Management, offering protection against payment defaults on debt instruments including municipal bonds, infrastructure projects, and mortgage-backed securities.
The financial guaranty business model relies on credit substitution, where the insurer’s high credit rating is applied to a debt issuance to lower borrowing costs for the issuer. In the U.S. municipal bond sector, this insurance is a critical component of market liquidity, providing a secondary layer of security for retail and institutional investors against underlying credit deterioration.
In addition to traditional bond insurance, AGO manages a diversified portfolio of specialty risks, including aircraft residual value insurance and life insurance securitizations. The Asset Management segment complements these activities by providing investment advisory services, allowing the firm to generate fee-based income alongside its core underwriting premiums.
Investors may find further insights into these segments by exploring the detailed analytics available on ValueRay.
- Municipal bond issuance volume dictates demand for primary financial guaranty insurance
- Higher interest rates increase credit spread volatility driving demand for bond insurance
- Resolution of Puerto Rico debt litigation stabilizes long-term loss reserve outlook
- Asset management segment expansion diversifies revenue beyond traditional credit wrap premiums
- Aggressive share buyback programs significantly influence book value per share growth
| Net Income: 415.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.83% < 20% (prev 45.50%; Δ -34.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 362.0m > Net Income 415.0m |
| Net Debt (-632.0m) to EBITDA (467.0m): -1.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.4m) vs 12m ago -10.45% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.64% > 18% (prev 0.96%; Δ 9.37k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.74% > 50% (prev 7.73%; Δ 0.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.25 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 467.0m / Interest Expense TTM 89.0m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 4.32b - Total Current Liabilities 4.21b) / Total Assets 12.6b |
| B: 0.46 (Retained Earnings 5.82b / Total Assets 12.6b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 467.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.3b) |
| D: 0.78 (Book Value of Equity 5.54b / Total Liabilities 7.07b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.63 = A |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 1.98b/1.96b, Revenue 951.0m/923.0m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 94.64% / 96.32%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 951.0m / 923.0m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 415.0m - CFO 362.0m) / TA 12.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 74.93 with a total of 315,183 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.63%,
over one month by -9.26%,
over three months by -12.26% and
over the past year by -10.69%.
Assured Guaranty has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 92.3 | 23.2% |
P/E Trailing = 8.8076
P/E Forward = 12.0048
P/S = 4.1829
P/B = 0.6286
P/EG = 0.3304
Revenue TTM = 951.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 467.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 467.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -632.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.71b - CCE 2.34b)
Enterprise Value = 2.77b USD (3.40b + Debt 1.71b - CCE 2.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.25 (Ebit TTM 467.0m / Interest Expense TTM 89.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.66x (Enterprise Value 2.77b / FCF TTM 362.0m)
FCF Yield = 13.06% (FCF TTM 362.0m / Enterprise Value 2.77b)
FCF Margin = 38.07% (FCF TTM 362.0m / Revenue TTM 951.0m)
Net Margin = 43.64% (Net Income TTM 415.0m / Revenue TTM 951.0m)
Gross Margin = 94.64% ((Revenue TTM 951.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 51.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.80% (prev 91.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.22 (Enterprise Value 2.77b / Total Assets 12.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.22% (Interest Expense 89.0m / Debt 1.71b)
Taxrate = 17.98% (119.0m / 662.0m)
NOPAT = 383.1m (EBIT 467.0m * (1 - 17.98%))
Current Ratio = 1.02 (Total Current Assets 4.32b / Total Current Liabilities 4.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 1.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.35 (Net Debt -632.0m / EBITDA 467.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.75 (Net Debt -632.0m / FCF TTM 362.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.38% (Net Income 415.0m / Total Assets 12.6b)
RoE = 7.38% (Net Income TTM 415.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.62b)
RoCE = 6.37% (EBIT 467.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.62b + L.T.Debt 1.71b))
RoIC = 4.63% (NOPAT 383.1m / Invested Capital 8.27b)
WACC = 6.35% (E(3.40b)/V(5.11b) * Re(7.38%) + D(1.71b)/V(5.11b) * Rd(5.22%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 7.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -12.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈300.4m ; Y1≈344.4m ; Y5≈506.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 186.5 (EV 7.63b - Net Debt -632.0m = Equity 8.26b / Shares 44.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 26.20 | EPS CAGR: 10.16% | SUE: 1.61 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -5.14 | Revenue CAGR: -0.42% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=-11.36% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.61 | Chg30d=-13.87% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.26 | Chg30d=+4.06% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=-20.0% | GrowthRev=-24.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.66 | Chg30d=-3.93% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%