AGO Stock Analysis: Assured Guaranty | NYSE
Insurance - Specialty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.762m USD | 12M Return: 4.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 28.7M
EPS Trend: 26.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -5.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a Bermuda-based financial guaranty insurer that provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. Operating through Insurance and Asset Management segments, its core business is financial guaranty insurance, which protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments, complemented by specialty insurance and reinsurance on similar risk profiles.
The Insurance segment covers a broad range of exposures, including U.S. public finance obligations (such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, and renewable energy bonds), non-U.S. public finance obligations (regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign debt, and renewable energy bonds), and structured finance obligations such as residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, and pooled corporate obligations. The company also writes specialty business including diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing, securitizations, and aircraft residual value insurance,
- Public finance premiums rise on stronger U.S. municipal bond issuance
- Structured finance loss reserves develop favorably as credit conditions improve
- Capital returns accelerate via aggressive buybacks and dividends
| Net Income: 415.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.83% < 20% (prev 45.50%; Δ -34.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 362.0m > Net Income 415.0m |
| Net Debt (-632.0m) to EBITDA (467.0m): -1.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.4m) vs 12m ago -10.45% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.64% > 18% (prev 96.32%; Δ -1.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.74% > 50% (prev 7.73%; Δ 0.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.25 > 6 (EBIT TTM 467.0m / Interest Expense TTM 89.0m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 4.32b - Total Current Liabilities 4.21b) / Total Assets 12.6b |
| B: 0.46 (Retained Earnings 5.82b / Total Assets 12.6b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 467.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.3b) |
| D: 0.78 (Book Value of Equity 5.54b / Total Liabilities 7.07b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.63 = A |
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 1.98b/1.96b, Revenue 951.0m/923.0m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 96.32% / 94.64%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 951.0m / 923.0m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 415.0m - CFO 362.0m) / TA 12.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 85.41 with a total of 325,189 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.01%, over one month by +11.46%, over three months by +2.95% and over the past year by +4.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 83.00 (which is 2.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Assured Guaranty has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 91.7 | 7.3% |
P/E Trailing = 9.732
P/E Forward = 12.9702
P/S = 4.6219
P/B = 0.6789
P/EG = 0.3304
Revenue TTM = 951.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 467.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 467.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -632.0m USD (calculated: Debt 1.71b - CCE 2.34b)
Enterprise Value = 3.13b USD (3.76b + Debt 1.71b - CCE 2.34b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.25 (Ebit TTM 467.0m / Interest Expense TTM 89.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.65x (Enterprise Value 3.13b / FCF TTM 362.0m)
FCF Yield = 11.56% (FCF TTM 362.0m / Enterprise Value 3.13b)
FCF Margin = 38.07% (FCF TTM 362.0m / Revenue TTM 951.0m)
Net Margin = 43.64% (Net Income TTM 415.0m / Revenue TTM 951.0m)
Gross Margin = 94.64% ((Revenue TTM 951.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 51.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.80% (prev 91.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.25 (Enterprise Value 3.13b / Total Assets 12.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.22% (Interest Expense 89.0m / Debt 1.71b)
Taxrate = 11.04% (55.0m / 498.0m)
NOPAT = 415.4m (EBIT 467.0m * (1 - 11.04%))
Current Ratio = 1.02 (Total Current Assets 4.32b / Total Current Liabilities 4.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 1.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.35 (Net Debt -632.0m / EBITDA 467.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.75 (Net Debt -632.0m / FCF TTM 362.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.38% (Net Income 415.0m / Total Assets 12.6b)
RoE = 7.38% (Net Income TTM 415.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.62b)
RoCE = 6.37% (EBIT 467.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.62b + L.T.Debt 1.71b))
RoIC = 4.95% (NOPAT 415.4m / Invested Capital 8.39b)
WACC = 6.29% (E(3.76b)/V(5.47b) * Re(7.03%) + D(1.71b)/V(5.47b) * Rd(5.22%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 7.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.50 | Cagr: -10.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈300.4m ; Y1≈344.4m ; Y5≈506.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 186.5 (EV 7.63b - Net Debt -632.0m = Equity 8.26b / Shares 44.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 26.20 | EPS CAGR: 10.16% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -5.14 | Revenue CAGR: -0.42% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.60 | Chg30d=+2.53% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.67 | Chg30d=+4.23% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.26 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-20.0% | GrowthRev=-20.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.16 | Chg30d=-6.52% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-1.4% | GrowthRev=-3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -36% (up=2, down=6)