AGO Stock Analysis: Assured Guaranty | NYSE
Insurance - Specialty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.116m USD | 12M Return: -14.2% | BMG0585R1060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 27.9M
EPS Trend: -11.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -30.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO), a Bermuda-domiciled specialty insurer, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally through its Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments from defaults in scheduled payments, along with specialty insurance and reinsurance covering transactions with risk profiles similar to its structured finance exposures.
Its insured portfolio spans U.S. public finance obligations (general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, and renewable energy bonds), non-U.S. public finance obligations (regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy, and pooled infrastructure), and U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations (including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products).
Additionally, AGO writes specialty business such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing, securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance, while also offering investment advisory services through its asset management segment. The company markets its products directly to issuers, underwriters, and investors. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda-a leading global hub for specialty insurance and reinsurance-AGO operates within the Financials sector under the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry classification.
- unicipal bond insurance volume tracks public finance issuance trends
- Investment portfolio income rises with higher interest rates
- Capital return accelerates through share buybacks and dividends
| Net Income: 351.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.68 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -241.5% < 20% (prev 30.88%; Δ -272.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 324.0m > Net Income 351.0m |
| Net Debt (-5.42b) to EBITDA (502.0m): -10.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (44.6m) vs 12m ago -9.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.03% > 50% (prev 8.33%; Δ -1.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.70 > 6 (EBIT TTM 502.0m / Interest Expense TTM 88.0m) |
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 1.83b - Total Current Liabilities 3.93b) / Total Assets 12.6b |
| B: 0.46 (Retained Earnings 5.81b / Total Assets 12.6b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 502.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.4b) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 5.56b / Total Liabilities 7.06b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.51 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 1.52b/2.01b, Revenue 870.0m/1.01b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 93.45% / 97.47%) |
| AQI: 1.34 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 0.86 (Revenue 870.0m / 1.01b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 351.0m - CFO 324.0m) / TA 12.6b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 69.46 with a total of 346,886 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.96%, over one month by +0.68%, over three months by -17.08% and over the past year by -14.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 66.70 (which is 4% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Assured Guaranty has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 91 | 31% |
P/E Trailing = 9.4341
P/E Forward = 11.1111
P/S = 3.8326
P/B = 0.5623
P/EG = 0.3304
Revenue TTM = 870.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 502.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 502.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.71b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.42b USD (calculated: Debt 1.71b - CCE 7.13b)
Enterprise Value = 3.12b USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.70 (Ebit TTM 502.0m / Interest Expense TTM 88.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.62x (Enterprise Value 3.12b / FCF TTM 324.0m)
FCF Yield = 10.40% (FCF TTM 324.0m / Enterprise Value 3.12b)
FCF Margin = 37.24% (FCF TTM 324.0m / Revenue TTM 870.0m)
Net Margin = 40.34% (Net Income TTM 351.0m / Revenue TTM 870.0m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 870.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 22.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.25 (Enterprise Value 3.12b / Total Assets 12.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.16% (Interest Expense 88.0m / Debt 1.71b)
Taxrate = 8.94% (37.0m / 414.0m)
NOPAT = 457.1m (EBIT 502.0m * (1 - 8.94%))
Current Ratio = 0.47 (Total Current Assets 1.83b / Total Current Liabilities 3.93b)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 1.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = -10.80 (Net Debt -5.42b / EBITDA 502.0m)
Debt / FCF = -16.73 (Net Debt -5.42b / FCF TTM 324.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.84% (Net Income 351.0m / Total Assets 12.6b)
RoE = 6.26% (Net Income TTM 351.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.61b)
RoCE = 6.87% (EBIT 502.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.61b + L.T.Debt 1.71b))
RoIC = 5.27% (NOPAT 457.1m / Invested Capital 8.68b)
WACC = 5.66% (E(3.12b)/V(4.82b) * Re(6.18%) + D(1.71b)/V(4.82b) * Rd(5.16%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 6.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.53 | Cagr: -10.40%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈285.6m ; Y1≈327.4m ; Y5≈481.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 288.1 (EV 7.25b - Net Debt -5.42b = Equity 12.7b / Shares 44.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -11.09 | EPS CAGR: -2.94% | SUE: -0.73 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -30.55 | Revenue CAGR: -2.61% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=-6.15% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.02 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-22.7% | GrowthRev=-20.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.04 | Chg30d=-0.83% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+0.3% | GrowthRev=-4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)