(AGRO) Adecoagro - Overview
Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Farm Products | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.750m USD | Total Return: 36.4% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 9.31M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 52.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
P/E ratio 606.5
Share dilution 43.0% YoY
High Debt/EBITDA (5.1) with thin interest coverage (1.1)
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Idiosyncratic Leader
Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) is a vertically integrated agricultural producer operating across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company’s business model is divided into two primary segments: Farming and Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy. Its farming operations encompass the production of diverse row crops, rice processing, and a large-scale dairy business that includes the manufacturing of fluid milk, cheeses, and powders.
The company utilizes a low-cost production model by integrating industrial processing with raw commodity output. In Brazil, AGRO focuses on sugarcane cultivation to produce sugar and ethanol while generating renewable electricity through bagasse cogeneration. This dual-commodity approach allows the firm to shift production between sugar and ethanol based on prevailing global market prices and energy demand.
A secondary component of AGRO’s strategy involves land transformation, where the company acquires underutilized acreage to enhance its productivity through modern technology and sustainable practices. The agricultural sector in South America remains a critical global supplier of proteins and biofuels, benefiting from favorable soil conditions and export-oriented infrastructure. Investors can analyze the underlying land values and commodity cycles for this ticker at ValueRay.
As of May 2025, Adecoagro operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V. The company maintains its corporate headquarters in Luxembourg and continues to monetize environmental initiatives through the sale of carbon credits and biogas electricity generation.
- Global sugar and ethanol price volatility impacts core industrial segment margins
- Argentine macroeconomic instability and currency devaluation affect operational costs and valuation
- Weather patterns and crop yields determine agricultural commodity export volumes and revenue
- Expansion of renewable energy and carbon credit sales diversifies long-term revenue streams
- Strategic land transformation and asset sales drive non-operational capital gains and liquidity
| Net Income: 14.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.07% < 20% (prev 34.50%; Δ 0.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 289.5m > Net Income 14.2m |
| Net Debt (2.38b) to EBITDA (466.2m): 5.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (512.2m) vs 12m ago 410.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.24% > 18% (prev 25.17%; Δ 0.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.17% > 50% (prev 47.24%; Δ -12.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 168.5m / Interest Expense TTM 157.1m) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 1.24b - Total Current Liabilities 715.4m) / Total Assets 5.19b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 549.9m / Total Assets 5.19b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 168.5m / Avg Total Assets 4.27b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 1.76b / Total Liabilities 3.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.84 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 292.6m/244.6m, Revenue 1.50b/1.58b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 25.17% / 25.24%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 1.50b / 1.58b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 14.2m - CFO 289.5m) / TA 5.19b) |
| Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.11 with a total of 425,905 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.12%,
over one month by -20.22%,
over three months by +27.39% and
over the past year by +36.41%.
Adecoagro has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGRO.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 13.5 | 11.8% |
P/E Trailing = 606.5
P/E Forward = 27.1003
P/S = 1.1663
P/B = 0.9969
P/EG = 75.9697
Revenue TTM = 1.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 168.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 466.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 400.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 348.9m
Net Debt = 2.38b USD (calculated: Debt 2.55b - CCE 172.5m)
Enterprise Value = 4.13b USD (1.75b + Debt 2.55b - CCE 172.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 168.5m / Interest Expense TTM 157.1m)
EV/FCF = 80.43x (Enterprise Value 4.13b / FCF TTM 51.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.24% (FCF TTM 51.4m / Enterprise Value 4.13b)
FCF Margin = 3.42% (FCF TTM 51.4m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Net Margin = 0.95% (Net Income TTM 14.2m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Gross Margin = 25.24% ((Revenue TTM 1.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.74% (prev 18.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 4.13b / Total Assets 5.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.15% (Interest Expense 157.1m / Debt 2.55b)
Taxrate = 39.05% (28.1m / 71.9m)
NOPAT = 102.7m (EBIT 168.5m * (1 - 39.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.74 (Total Current Assets 1.24b / Total Current Liabilities 715.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.46 (Debt 2.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.11 (Net Debt 2.38b / EBITDA 466.2m)
Debt / FCF = 46.36 (Net Debt 2.38b / FCF TTM 51.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.33% (Net Income 14.2m / Total Assets 5.19b)
RoE = 0.93% (Net Income TTM 14.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.54b)
RoCE = 5.52% (EBIT 168.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.54b + L.T.Debt 1.52b))
RoIC = 2.14% (NOPAT 102.7m / Invested Capital 4.80b)
WACC = 4.59% (E(1.75b)/V(4.31b) * Re(5.83%) + D(2.55b)/V(4.31b) * Rd(6.15%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 5.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -25.61 | Cagr: 13.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈152.5m ; Y1≈133.7m ; Y5≈108.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.73b - Net Debt 2.38b = -648.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.92 | Revenue CAGR: 3.90% | SUE: -0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=+237.10% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=+16.91% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+1191.7% | GrowthRev=+63.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=-3.25% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=-34.4% | GrowthRev=-11.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +20%