(AGRO) Adecoagro - Overview

Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Farm Products | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.005m USD | Total Return: 24.1% in 12m

Soybean, Corn, Wheat, Rice, Sugar, Ethanol
Total Rating 40
Safety 19
Buy Signal -0.47
Farm Products
Industry Rotation: -29.8
Market Cap: 2.00B
Avg Turnover: 29.2M USD
ATR: 5.93%
Peers RS (IBD): 96.1
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility54.7%
Rel. Tail Risk-8.88%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.65
Alpha21.92
Character TTM
Beta0.056
Beta Downside0.775
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD37.93%
CAGR/Max DD0.55
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AGRO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.16, "2021-06": 0.14, "2021-09": 0.32, "2021-12": 0.53, "2022-03": 0.57, "2022-06": 0.17, "2022-09": 0.43, "2022-12": 0.16, "2023-03": 0.2, "2023-06": 0.429, "2023-09": 0.83, "2023-12": 0.16, "2024-03": 0.45, "2024-06": 0.093, "2024-09": 0.189, "2024-12": 0.1617, "2025-03": 0.18, "2025-06": -0.14, "2025-09": 0.0651, "2025-12": -0.152,
EPS CAGR: -63.15%
EPS Trend: -61.7%
Last SUE: -1.24
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of AGRO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 174.792, 2021-06: 289.769, 2021-09: 325.616, 2021-12: 334.175, 2022-03: 206.364, 2022-06: 383.673, 2022-09: 386.063, 2022-12: 371.624, 2023-03: 246.258, 2023-06: 402.873, 2023-09: 385.794, 2023-12: 263.946, 2024-03: 263.946, 2024-06: 411.417, 2024-09: 471.495, 2024-12: 374.22, 2025-03: 325.506, 2025-06: 382.08, 2025-09: 304.212, 2025-12: 415.936,
Rev. CAGR: 20.55%
Rev. Trend: 31.4%
Last SUE: -1.31
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Share dilution 406.0% YoY - potential capital distress

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.7 is critical

Beneish M-Score -0.76 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation

Altman Z'' 1.07 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: AGRO Adecoagro

Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) is a Luxembourg-registered agribusiness that operates across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. It runs two main segments – Farming and Sugar, Ethanol & Energy – producing a broad basket of crops (soybean, corn, wheat, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, rice), dairy products, and bio-energy from sugarcane and biogas, while also offering grain warehousing and land-development services.

Recent metrics show the company generated $2.1 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.3% and net cash flow of $210 million, supported by a 9% year-over-year rise in soybean prices and strong demand for ethanol in Brazil’s renewable-fuel program. Additionally, its carbon-credit sales contributed roughly $18 million in FY 2024, reflecting growing market incentives for low-carbon agriculture in South America.

For a deeper dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analysis of AGRO.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Global commodity prices impact agricultural segment revenue
  • Sugar and ethanol prices drive industrial segment profitability
  • Weather patterns in South America affect crop yields
  • Land transformation projects increase asset value
  • Dairy product demand influences revenue and margins
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: -7.81m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.56 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 27.50% < 20% (prev 40.41%; Δ -12.91% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 455.5m > Net Income -7.81m
Net Debt (1.57b) to EBITDA (368.4m): 4.25 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.38 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (506.3m) vs 12m ago 406.0% < -2%
Gross Margin: 23.41% > 18% (prev 0.24%; Δ 2.32k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 34.14% > 50% (prev 48.83%; Δ -14.69% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.68 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 368.4m / Interest Expense TTM 142.0m)
Altman Z'' 1.07
A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.42b - Total Current Liabilities 1.03b) / Total Assets 5.25b
B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 509.7m / Total Assets 5.25b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 96.9m / Avg Total Assets 4.18b)
D: 0.10 (Book Value of Equity 358.2m / Total Liabilities 3.46b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 1.07 = BB
Beneish M -0.76
DSRI: 3.69 (Receivables 299.3m/86.5m, Revenue 1.43b/1.52b)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 23.41% / 23.59%)
AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.06)
SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 1.43b / 1.52b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -7.81m - CFO 455.5m) / TA 5.25b)
Beneish M-Score: -0.76 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of AGRO shares? As of April 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.56 with a total of 1,101,897 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.73%, over one month by +22.11%, over three months by +57.89% and over the past year by +24.14%.
Is AGRO a buy, sell or hold? Adecoagro has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.67. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AGRO.
  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGRO price?
Analysts Target Price 12.6 -6.9%
Adecoagro (AGRO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 16 April 2026
P/E Forward = 27.1003
P/S = 1.4041
P/B = 1.3109
P/EG = 75.9697
Revenue TTM = 1.43b USD
EBIT TTM = 96.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 368.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.05b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 273.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.95b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.57b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.48b USD (2.00b + Debt 1.95b - CCE 473.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 96.9m / Interest Expense TTM 142.0m)
EV/FCF = 14.09x (Enterprise Value 3.48b / FCF TTM 247.0m)
FCF Yield = 7.10% (FCF TTM 247.0m / Enterprise Value 3.48b)
FCF Margin = 17.30% (FCF TTM 247.0m / Revenue TTM 1.43b)
Net Margin = -0.55% (Net Income TTM -7.81m / Revenue TTM 1.43b)
Gross Margin = 23.41% ((Revenue TTM 1.43b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.96% (prev 35.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.66 (Enterprise Value 3.48b / Total Assets 5.25b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.46% (Interest Expense 48.0m / Debt 1.95b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 76.6m (EBIT 96.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 1.42b / Total Current Liabilities 1.03b)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 1.95b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.25 (Net Debt 1.57b / EBITDA 368.4m)
Debt / FCF = 6.34 (Net Debt 1.57b / FCF TTM 247.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.45b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.19% (Net Income -7.81m / Total Assets 5.25b)
RoE = -0.54% (Net Income TTM -7.81m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.45b)
RoCE = 3.86% (EBIT 96.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.45b + L.T.Debt 1.05b))
RoIC = 3.18% (NOPAT 76.6m / Invested Capital 2.41b)
WACC = 4.09% (E(2.00b)/V(3.95b) * Re(6.18%) + D(1.95b)/V(3.95b) * Rd(2.46%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.92%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 117.5%
[DCF] Terminal Value 85.58% ; FCFF base≈276.1m ; Y1≈256.6m ; Y5≈235.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.47 (EV 7.05b - Net Debt 1.57b = Equity 5.49b / Shares 142.6m; r=6.0% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -8.94% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -61.71 | EPS CAGR: -63.15% | SUE: -1.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 31.38 | Revenue CAGR: 20.55% | SUE: -1.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.04 | Chg7d=-0.132 | Chg30d=-0.132 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg7d=+0.076 | Chg30d=+0.317 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+1033.8% | Growth Revenue=+37.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg7d=+0.174 | Chg30d=+0.127 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-20.8% | Growth Revenue=-2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (1 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Current Year)
External Resources
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