AGRO Stock Analysis: Adecoagro | NYSE
Farm Products | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.478m USD | 12M Return: 35.6% | LU0584671464 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.94M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 68.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) is a Luxembourg-headquartered agricultural and agro-industrial company with operations concentrated in South America, primarily Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. Founded in 2002 and listed on the NYSE since January 2011, the company runs a vertically integrated business model that spans primary crop production, processing, and renewable energy generation.
The company reports through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy; Fertilizers; and Farming. Activities include cultivating soybeans, corn, wheat, sunflower, cotton, and peanuts; producing and marketing white, brown, and rough rice; dairy operations spanning fluid milk, powdered milk, cheese, and flavored dairy products; and sugarcane processing into ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity. The company also generates electricity by burning biogas captured from dairy effluents and sells carbon credits. Despite its diversified footprint across commodities and energy, Adecoagro is classified under the GICS Packaged Foods & Meats sub-industry within Consumer Staples.
Beyond core production, Adecoagro engages in land transformation-acquiring underdeveloped or underutilized farmland and applying modern agricultural practices to lift productivity-and provides third-party grain warehousing, conditioning, handling, and drying services. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. de C.V.
- Sugar and ethanol prices rise on Brazilian harvest outlook
- Argentine peso devaluation pressures farming segment margins
- Carbon credit sales and bioelectricity revenue grow
- Tether acquisition deal closes limiting free float trading
| Net Income: 50.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 34.78% < 20% (prev 30.92%; Δ 3.85% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 284.3m > Net Income 50.0m |
| Net Debt (2.32b) to EBITDA (580.9m): 4.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (728.4m) vs 12m ago 630.1% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.94% > 18% (prev 22.92%; Δ 6.02% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.70% > 50% (prev 47.39%; Δ -8.69% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 251.8m / Interest Expense TTM 185.2m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.36b - Total Current Liabilities 787.5m) / Total Assets 5.25b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 568.1m / Total Assets 5.25b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 251.8m / Avg Total Assets 4.26b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 1.74b / Total Liabilities 3.37b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.01 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 281.8m/210.5m, Revenue 1.65b/1.55b) |
| GMI: 0.79 (GM 22.92% / 28.94%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 1.65b / 1.55b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 50.0m - CFO 284.3m) / TA 5.25b) |
| Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.05 with a total of 546,337 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.92%, over one month by -13.06%, over three months by -1.95% and over the past year by +35.55%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.40 (which is 6.5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Adecoagro has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.13. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGRO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.4 | 33.3% |
P/E Trailing = 26.2564
P/E Forward = 19.305
P/S = 0.8957
P/B = 0.9063
P/EG = 75.9697
Revenue TTM = 1.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 251.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 580.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 496.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.65b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 317.0m
Net Debt = 2.32b USD (calculated: Debt 2.65b - CCE 330.5m)
Enterprise Value = 3.80b USD (1.48b + Debt 2.65b - CCE 330.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.36 (Ebit TTM 251.8m / Interest Expense TTM 185.2m)
EV/FCF = 79.61x (Enterprise Value 3.80b / FCF TTM 47.7m)
FCF Yield = 1.26% (FCF TTM 47.7m / Enterprise Value 3.80b)
FCF Margin = 2.89% (FCF TTM 47.7m / Revenue TTM 1.65b)
Net Margin = 3.03% (Net Income TTM 50.0m / Revenue TTM 1.65b)
Gross Margin = 28.94% ((Revenue TTM 1.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.17b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.62% (prev 29.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 3.80b / Total Assets 5.25b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.98% (Interest Expense 185.2m / Debt 2.65b)
Taxrate = 39.29% (39.2m / 99.9m)
NOPAT = 152.9m (EBIT 251.8m * (1 - 39.29%))
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 1.36b / Total Current Liabilities 787.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.52 (Debt 2.65b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.74b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.00 (Net Debt 2.32b / EBITDA 580.9m)
Debt / FCF = 48.64 (Net Debt 2.32b / FCF TTM 47.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.63b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.17% (Net Income 50.0m / Total Assets 5.25b)
RoE = 3.07% (Net Income TTM 50.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.63b)
RoCE = 7.85% (EBIT 251.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.63b + L.T.Debt 1.58b))
RoIC = 3.14% (NOPAT 152.9m / Invested Capital 4.87b)
WACC = 4.37% (E(1.48b)/V(4.13b) * Re(4.59%) + D(2.65b)/V(4.13b) * Rd(6.98%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 4.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 80.51 | Cagr: 134.5%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈142.5m ; Y1≈124.9m ; Y5≈101.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.62b - Net Debt 2.32b = -700.7m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 68.05 | Revenue CAGR: 6.02% | SUE: -1.57 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=+529.25% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.73 | Chg30d=+1.46% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1058.5% | GrowthRev=+56.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.39 | Chg30d=+0.69% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-19.4% | GrowthRev=-1.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)