(AHL) Aspen Insurance Holdings - Overview
Stock: Reinsurance, Insurance, Property, Casualty, Specialty
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 2.24% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.52% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.60 |
| Alpha | 10.91 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.013 |
| Beta Downside | -0.078 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.89 |
Description: AHL Aspen Insurance Holdings January 17, 2026
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (NYSE:AHL) operates a diversified insurance and reinsurance platform across Australia, Asia, Europe (including the UK and Ireland), North America, and other international markets. Through its subsidiaries it underwrites a broad suite of products-property catastrophe, casualty, specialty, and first-party insurance-primarily distributed via brokers and reinsurance intermediaries. The company, formerly Exali Reinsurance Holdings, was incorporated in 2002, is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, and is a subsidiary of AP Highlands Holdings, L.P.
Key performance metrics that analysts watch include a combined ratio hovering around 95% in recent quarters, net written premiums of roughly $2.3 billion for FY 2024, and a return on equity (ROE) near 12%, reflecting solid underwriting profitability. The business is sensitive to two macro drivers: (1) the global natural-catastrophe loss cycle, which can swing pricing and loss reserves, and (2) the interest-rate environment, which affects investment income that typically accounts for 30-40% of total earnings in the P&C sector.
For a deeper, data-driven look at Aspen’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analytics available on ValueRay to see how its risk-adjusted returns compare to peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 453.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 356.8% < 20% (prev 235.2%; Δ 121.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 311.7m > Net Income 453.9m |
| Net Debt (-830.2m) to EBITDA (511.3m): -1.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 11.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (92.0m) vs 12m ago 52.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.37% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 3506 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.74% > 50% (prev 18.78%; Δ 0.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.92 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 511.3m / Interest Expense TTM 38.2m) |
Altman Z'' 5.38
| A: 0.70 (Total Current Assets 12.59b - Total Current Liabilities 1.14b) / Total Assets 16.41b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 2.20b / Total Assets 16.41b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 493.7m / Avg Total Assets 16.26b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.98b / Total Liabilities 12.94b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.38 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.20
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 6.14b/6.26b, Revenue 3.21b/3.02b) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 35.37% / 30.77%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 3.21b / 3.02b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 453.9m - CFO 311.7m) / TA 16.41b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AHL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.00%, over one month by +0.35%, over three months by +1.36% and over the past year by +14.86%.
Is AHL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the AHL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 40.6 | 8.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39.1 | 4.8% |
AHL Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/S = 0.8787
P/B = 1.1062
Revenue TTM = 3.21b USD
EBIT TTM = 493.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 511.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 296.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 296.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -830.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.98b USD (2.81b + Debt 296.6m - CCE 1.13b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.92 (Ebit TTM 493.7m / Interest Expense TTM 38.2m)
EV/FCF = 6.92x (Enterprise Value 1.98b / FCF TTM 285.9m)
FCF Yield = 14.46% (FCF TTM 285.9m / Enterprise Value 1.98b)
FCF Margin = 8.91% (FCF TTM 285.9m / Revenue TTM 3.21b)
Net Margin = 14.15% (Net Income TTM 453.9m / Revenue TTM 3.21b)
Gross Margin = 35.37% ((Revenue TTM 3.21b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.99% (prev 34.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.12 (Enterprise Value 1.98b / Total Assets 16.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.07% (Interest Expense 9.10m / Debt 296.6m)
Taxrate = 21.69% (33.8m / 155.8m)
NOPAT = 386.6m (EBIT 493.7m * (1 - 21.69%))
Current Ratio = 11.06 (Total Current Assets 12.59b / Total Current Liabilities 1.14b)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 296.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.47b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.62 (Net Debt -830.2m / EBITDA 511.3m)
Debt / FCF = -2.90 (Net Debt -830.2m / FCF TTM 285.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.79% (Net Income 453.9m / Total Assets 16.41b)
RoE = 13.57% (Net Income TTM 453.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.35b)
RoCE = 13.56% (EBIT 493.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.35b + L.T.Debt 296.6m))
RoIC = 13.44% (NOPAT 386.6m / Invested Capital 2.88b)
WACC = 5.54% (E(2.81b)/V(3.10b) * Re(5.87%) + D(296.6m)/V(3.10b) * Rd(3.07%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 5.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.44% ; FCFF base≈326.5m ; Y1≈254.7m ; Y5≈164.2m
Fair Price DCF = 64.21 (EV 5.07b - Net Debt -830.2m = Equity 5.90b / Shares 91.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -26.18% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -53.25 | EPS CAGR: -81.89% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 65.50 | Revenue CAGR: 10.39% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+41.8% | Growth Revenue=+5.5%