(AIR) AAR - Overview
Stock: Aviation Parts, Logistics, Engineering, Maintenance, Containers
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.73% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.35 |
| Alpha | 44.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.180 |
| Beta Downside | 1.192 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.72% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.80 |
Description: AIR AAR January 12, 2026
AAR Corp. (NYSE:AIR) is a diversified aerospace and defense services firm that supplies, repairs, and engineers aircraft components and related solutions across commercial, government, and defense markets worldwide. Its operations are organized into four segments-Parts Supply; Repair & Engineering; Integrated Solutions; and Expeditionary Services-covering everything from leasing and selling parts to providing airframe maintenance, MRO, software platforms (e.g., the cloud-based Trax system), and tactical shelters.
Key recent metrics indicate a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.5 bn in FY 2024, driven by strong demand for MRO services amid a 4% rise in global commercial flight hours and a 6% uptick in U.S. defense spending on logistics and sustainment. The company’s backlog sits at roughly 18 months, providing visibility into future cash flows, while its operating margin has stabilized near 8% after cost-efficiency initiatives in the Integrated Solutions segment.
For a deeper dive into AAR’s valuation dynamics and how its exposure to both commercial MRO cycles and defense logistics contracts may affect future performance, you might find ValueRay’s analytical tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 94.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.94% < 20% (prev 36.54%; Δ 0.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 1.40m > Net Income 94.1m |
| Net Debt (968.7m) to EBITDA (264.3m): 3.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (37.0m) vs 12m ago 5.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.29% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 1910 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 97.43% > 50% (prev 90.25%; Δ 7.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.74 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 264.3m / Interest Expense TTM 75.2m) |
Altman Z'' 4.39
| A: 0.34 (Total Current Assets 1.69b - Total Current Liabilities 594.2m) / Total Assets 3.24b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 1.04b / Total Assets 3.24b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 206.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.05b) |
| D: 0.64 (Book Value of Equity 1.08b / Total Liabilities 1.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.39 = AA |
Beneish M -3.00
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 554.5m/470.6m, Revenue 2.97b/2.57b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 19.29% / 18.80%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 2.97b / 2.57b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 94.1m - CFO 1.40m) / TA 3.24b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AIR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.19%, over one month by +24.85%, over three months by +28.18% and over the past year by +63.89%.
Is AIR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AIR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 110.7 | 0.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 110.7 | 0.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 145.2 | 32.1% |
AIR Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 23.5849
P/S = 1.4224
P/B = 2.7038
P/EG = 2.4061
Revenue TTM = 2.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 206.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 264.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 952.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 968.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.19b USD (4.22b + Debt 1.04b - CCE 75.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.74 (Ebit TTM 206.4m / Interest Expense TTM 75.2m)
EV/FCF = -156.3x (Enterprise Value 5.19b / FCF TTM -33.2m)
FCF Yield = -0.64% (FCF TTM -33.2m / Enterprise Value 5.19b)
FCF Margin = -1.12% (FCF TTM -33.2m / Revenue TTM 2.97b)
Net Margin = 3.17% (Net Income TTM 94.1m / Revenue TTM 2.97b)
Gross Margin = 19.29% ((Revenue TTM 2.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.73% (prev 18.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.60 (Enterprise Value 5.19b / Total Assets 3.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.83% (Interest Expense 19.1m / Debt 1.04b)
Taxrate = 28.07% (13.5m / 48.1m)
NOPAT = 148.5m (EBIT 206.4m * (1 - 28.07%))
Current Ratio = 2.84 (Total Current Assets 1.69b / Total Current Liabilities 594.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.67 (Debt 1.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.67 (Net Debt 968.7m / EBITDA 264.3m)
Debt / FCF = -29.18 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 968.7m / FCF TTM -33.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.09% (Net Income 94.1m / Total Assets 3.24b)
RoE = 7.23% (Net Income TTM 94.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.30b)
RoCE = 9.16% (EBIT 206.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.30b + L.T.Debt 952.7m))
RoIC = 6.48% (NOPAT 148.5m / Invested Capital 2.29b)
WACC = 8.49% (E(4.22b)/V(5.27b) * Re(10.26%) + D(1.04b)/V(5.27b) * Rd(1.83%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 10.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 2.38%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -33.2m)
EPS Correlation: 95.09 | EPS CAGR: 18.22% | SUE: 2.45 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 97.87 | Revenue CAGR: 16.25% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 3
EPS current Year (2026-05-31): EPS=4.71 | Chg30d=+0.242 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+20.4% | Growth Revenue=+15.5%
EPS next Year (2027-05-31): EPS=5.50 | Chg30d=+0.261 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+16.9% | Growth Revenue=+10.5%