(AJG) Arthur J Gallagher - Ratings and Ratios
Insurance, Reinsurance, Brokerage, Claims, Consulting
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.02% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.28% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.46% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 2.25% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.42 |
| Alpha | -16.56 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.366 |
| Beta | 0.307 |
| Beta Downside | 0.350 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.34% |
| Mean DD | 5.52% |
| Median DD | 3.25% |
Description: AJG Arthur J Gallagher December 03, 2025
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) is a global insurance and reinsurance brokerage firm that also provides consulting, claims settlement, and administration services through its subsidiaries. Founded in 1927 and headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, the company serves a broad client base that includes commercial, industrial, public, religious, nonprofit, and underwriting entities.
The business is organized into two primary segments. The **Brokerage** segment delivers retail and wholesale brokerage services, assists non-affiliated brokers with hard-to-place risks, and operates as a managing general agent/underwriter for specialized coverages. Its activities span marketing, underwriting, policy issuance, premium collection, claim payment, and reinsurance negotiation, as well as employer-benefit program management. The **Risk Management** segment focuses on contract claim settlement, loss-control consulting, and property appraisal services, leveraging a network of correspondent brokers and consultants.
Key financial and sector metrics that shape AJG’s outlook include: (1) FY 2023 revenue of roughly **$8.5 billion** with an operating margin near **13%**, reflecting efficient cost control; (2) a **combined ratio** in its commercial lines that has trended below 95%, indicating underwriting profitability; and (3) exposure to macro drivers such as construction activity, cyber-risk demand, and interest-rate movements, which influence premium pricing and investment income. The insurance-brokerage industry is also benefiting from a **low-interest-rate environment reversal**, which is boosting investment yields for carriers and, indirectly, brokerage commissions.
For a deeper quantitative look at AJG’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise dashboard worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (1.60b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 781.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.95pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 17.25% (prev 18.47%; Δ -1.22pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.92b > Net Income 1.60b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (12.29b) to EBITDA (3.62b) ratio: 3.39 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.06 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (260.4m) change vs 12m ago 16.31% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 56.33% (prev 41.89%; Δ 14.44pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 19.12% (prev 19.70%; Δ -0.58pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.56 (EBITDA TTM 3.62b / Interest Expense TTM 579.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.79
| (A) 0.03 = (Total Current Assets 43.01b - Total Current Liabilities 40.76b) / Total Assets 79.07b |
| (B) 0.07 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.82b / Total Assets 79.07b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 2.65b / Avg Total Assets 68.16b |
| (D) 0.10 = Book Value of Equity 5.50b / Total Liabilities 55.83b |
| Total Rating: 0.79 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 63.02
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.41% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.56% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.59 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.39 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.09)% |
| 7. RoE 7.22% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 86.17% |
| 9. EPS Trend 47.32% |
What is the price of AJG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.54%, over one month by +0.08%, over three months by -13.87% and over the past year by -8.38%.
Is AJG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AJG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 308.4 | 20.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 308.4 | 20.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 261 | 2.2% |
AJG Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 37.9952
P/E Forward = 22.6244
P/S = 5.057
P/B = 2.6527
P/EG = 1.0099
Beta = 0.688
Revenue TTM = 13.03b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.62b USD
Long Term Debt = 12.10b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.69b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.29b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 73.37b USD (61.08b + Debt 13.69b - CCE 1.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.56 (Ebit TTM 2.65b / Interest Expense TTM 579.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.41% (FCF TTM 1.77b / Enterprise Value 73.37b)
FCF Margin = 13.56% (FCF TTM 1.77b / Revenue TTM 13.03b)
Net Margin = 12.29% (Net Income TTM 1.60b / Revenue TTM 13.03b)
Gross Margin = 56.33% ((Revenue TTM 13.03b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.69b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.60% (prev 42.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 73.37b / Total Assets 79.07b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.17% (Interest Expense 160.8m / Debt 13.69b)
Taxrate = 21.13% (73.3m / 346.9m)
NOPAT = 2.09b (EBIT 2.65b * (1 - 21.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 43.01b / Total Current Liabilities 40.76b)
Debt / Equity = 0.59 (Debt 13.69b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.39 (Net Debt 12.29b / EBITDA 3.62b)
Debt / FCF = 6.95 (Net Debt 12.29b / FCF TTM 1.77b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.03% (Net Income 1.60b / Total Assets 79.07b)
RoE = 7.22% (Net Income TTM 1.60b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.18b)
RoCE = 7.72% (EBIT 2.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.18b + L.T.Debt 12.10b))
RoIC = 5.92% (NOPAT 2.09b / Invested Capital 35.24b)
WACC = 6.01% (E(61.08b)/V(74.77b) * Re(7.15%) + D(13.69b)/V(74.77b) * Rd(1.17%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.72%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.02% ; FCFE base≈2.02b ; Y1≈2.12b ; Y5≈2.49b
Fair Price DCF = 170.2 (DCF Value 43.70b / Shares Outstanding 256.8m; 5y FCF grow 5.67% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 47.32 | EPS CAGR: 25.84% | SUE: -1.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.17 | Revenue CAGR: 15.46% | SUE: -2.16 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=15
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.42 | Chg30d=-0.075 | Revisions Net=-13 | Growth EPS=+23.9% | Growth Revenue=+21.4%
Additional Sources for AJG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle