(AJG) Arthur J Gallagher - Overview
Stock: Insurance Brokerage, Reinsurance Brokerage, Claims Management, Risk Consulting
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.89% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.96% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.87% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 3.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.10 |
| Alpha | -30.74 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.320 |
| Beta Downside | 0.381 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.34% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.27 |
Description: AJG Arthur J Gallagher January 29, 2026
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) operates globally through two primary segments – Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage segment delivers retail and wholesale insurance/reinsurance brokerage, acts as a wholesaler and managing general agent, and provides placement, underwriting, premium collection, claims payment, and reinsurance negotiation services. The Risk Management segment focuses on contract claim settlement, loss-control consulting, and property appraisal, serving commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit clients as well as underwriting enterprises.
In its most recent fiscal year (2024), AJG reported total revenue of **$8.5 billion**, a **6 % year-over-year increase**, with the Brokerage segment accounting for roughly **80 % of that revenue**. Operating income rose to **$1.2 billion**, yielding an operating margin of **14 %** and an EPS of **$6.45**. The company’s combined ratio in its underwriting activities improved to **93 %**, indicating underwriting profitability despite a hardening market.
Key drivers for AJG’s outlook include: (1) **U.S. commercial insurance premiums are up ~5 % YoY**, fueled by inflationary cost pressures and limited carrier capacity; (2) **Growing demand for cyber and specialty lines** is expanding brokerage opportunities, especially for hard-to-place risks; and (3) **Continued consolidation in the broker market** is enhancing AJG’s scale advantage and cross-selling potential across its risk-management platform.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore AJG’s metrics on ValueRay’s analyst toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 1.49b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.18% < 20% (prev 128.5%; Δ -115.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 1.18b > Net Income 1.49b |
| Net Debt (12.60b) to EBITDA (3.66b): 3.44 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (260.3m) vs 12m ago 12.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 54.75% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 5433 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 20.67% > 50% (prev 17.98%; Δ 2.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.97 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.66b / Interest Expense TTM 638.8m) |
Altman Z'' 0.81
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 34.36b - Total Current Liabilities 32.52b) / Total Assets 70.67b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 5.81b / Total Assets 70.67b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 2.54b / Avg Total Assets 67.46b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 5.54b / Total Liabilities 47.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.81 = B |
Beneish M -2.61
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 5.17b/3.90b, Revenue 13.94b/11.55b) |
| GMI: 0.77 (GM 54.75% / 42.22%) |
| AQI: 1.66 (AQ_t 0.49 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 13.94b / 11.55b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 1.49b - CFO 1.18b) / TA 70.67b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.61 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AJG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.50%, over one month by -8.68%, over three months by -3.52% and over the past year by -24.85%.
Is AJG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AJG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 288.5 | 19.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 288.5 | 19.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 249.9 | 3.4% |
AJG Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 17.9211
P/S = 4.7721
P/B = 2.662
P/EG = 0.7995
Revenue TTM = 13.94b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.54b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.66b USD
Long Term Debt = 12.10b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 866.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.00b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.60b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 74.68b USD (62.08b + Debt 14.00b - CCE 1.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.97 (Ebit TTM 2.54b / Interest Expense TTM 638.8m)
EV/FCF = 69.69x (Enterprise Value 74.68b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
FCF Yield = 1.43% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Enterprise Value 74.68b)
FCF Margin = 7.69% (FCF TTM 1.07b / Revenue TTM 13.94b)
Net Margin = 10.72% (Net Income TTM 1.49b / Revenue TTM 13.94b)
Gross Margin = 54.75% ((Revenue TTM 13.94b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 39.11% (prev 90.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 74.68b / Total Assets 70.67b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.15% (Interest Expense 161.0m / Debt 14.00b)
Taxrate = 14.44% (26.0m / 180.0m)
NOPAT = 2.17b (EBIT 2.54b * (1 - 14.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 34.36b / Total Current Liabilities 32.52b)
Debt / Equity = 0.60 (Debt 14.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.44 (Net Debt 12.60b / EBITDA 3.66b)
Debt / FCF = 11.76 (Net Debt 12.60b / FCF TTM 1.07b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.97b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.21% (Net Income 1.49b / Total Assets 70.67b)
RoE = 6.50% (Net Income TTM 1.49b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.97b)
RoCE = 7.24% (EBIT 2.54b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.97b + L.T.Debt 12.10b))
RoIC = 6.05% (NOPAT 2.17b / Invested Capital 35.88b)
WACC = 5.97% (E(62.08b)/V(76.08b) * Re(7.09%) + D(14.00b)/V(76.08b) * Rd(1.15%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 7.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.70%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.56% ; FCFF base≈1.62b ; Y1≈1.70b ; Y5≈2.00b
Fair Price DCF = 176.4 (EV 57.93b - Net Debt 12.60b = Equity 45.32b / Shares 257.0m; r=5.97% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.67% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 37.17 | EPS CAGR: -4.33% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.20 | Revenue CAGR: 11.23% | SUE: 3.24 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.45 | Chg30d=-0.100 | Revisions Net=-8 | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.25 | Chg30d=-0.131 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+23.9% | Growth Revenue=+21.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.89 | Chg30d=-0.245 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+12.4% | Growth Revenue=+9.0%