AJG Stock Analysis: Arthur J Gallagher | NYSE
Insurance Brokers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 65.029m USD | 12M Return: -16.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 436M
EPS Trend: 97.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG) is a global insurance and reinsurance brokerage and consulting firm headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois. Founded in 1927 and publicly listed since 1984, the company operates through two segments-Brokerage and Risk Management-and is classified within the Financials sector under the Insurance Brokers sub-industry.
The Brokerage segment provides retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance placement, acting at times as a brokerage wholesaler, managing general agent (MGA), or managing general underwriter (MGU). In these capacities, AJG markets coverage, underwrites risk, issues policies, collects premiums, supervises agents, pays claims, and negotiates reinsurance on behalf of carrier partners. As is standard in the insurance brokerage industry, revenue in this segment is primarily fee- and commission-based, tied to premiums placed rather than underwriting risk retained on AJGs balance sheet.
The Risk Management segment delivers third-party property and casualty claims settlement and administration, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services, distributed through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants. This claims administration work extends the firms role beyond policy placement into ongoing claims handling. AJG serves a diverse client base spanning commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit entities, along with underwriting enterprises worldwide.
- Hard insurance market lifts Brokerage segment commission revenue
- M&A pipeline drives double-digit inorganic revenue growth
- Higher interest rates boost investment income on premium float
| Net Income: 1.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.63% < 20% (prev 136.4%; Δ -119.8% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 2.02b > Net Income 1.61b |
| Net Debt (11.8b) to EBITDA (3.89b): 3.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (259.8m) vs 12m ago 0.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 65.99% > 18% (prev 43.05%; Δ 22.94% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.65% > 50% (prev 16.23%; Δ 3.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.68b / Interest Expense TTM 638.4m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 42.0b - Total Current Liabilities 39.5b) / Total Assets 78.3b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 6.45b / Total Assets 78.3b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 2.68b / Avg Total Assets 76.2b) |
| D: 0.44 (Book Value of Equity 23.8b / Total Liabilities 54.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.17 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 5.96b/4.52b, Revenue 15.0b/12.0b) |
| GMI: 0.65 (GM 43.05% / 65.99%) |
| AQI: 1.68 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.25 (Revenue 15.0b / 12.0b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 1.61b - CFO 2.02b) / TA 78.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.71 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 255.93 with a total of 1,372,273 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.86%, over one month by +18.54%, over three months by +14.59% and over the past year by -16.49%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 245.90 (which is 3.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Arthur J Gallagher has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.18. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AJG.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 276.3 | 8% |
P/E Trailing = 40.9531
P/E Forward = 18.9394
P/S = 4.5802
P/B = 2.7352
P/EG = 0.8302
Revenue TTM = 15.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.68b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 12.1b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 640.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.2b USD (corrected: LT Debt 12.1b + ST Debt 640.0m) + Leases 499.0m
Net Debt = 11.8b USD (calculated: Debt 13.2b - CCE 1.41b)
Enterprise Value = 76.8b USD (65.0b + Debt 13.2b - CCE 1.41b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.20 (Ebit TTM 2.68b / Interest Expense TTM 638.4m)
EV/FCF = 41.25x (Enterprise Value 76.8b / FCF TTM 1.86b)
FCF Yield = 2.42% (FCF TTM 1.86b / Enterprise Value 76.8b)
FCF Margin = 12.44% (FCF TTM 1.86b / Revenue TTM 15.0b)
Net Margin = 10.76% (Net Income TTM 1.61b / Revenue TTM 15.0b)
Gross Margin = 65.99% ((Revenue TTM 15.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.87% (prev 39.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 76.8b / Total Assets 78.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.83% (Interest Expense 638.4m / Debt 13.2b)
Taxrate = 20.80% (424.5m / 2.04b)
NOPAT = 2.12b (EBIT 2.68b * (1 - 20.80%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 42.0b / Total Current Liabilities 39.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.56 (Debt 13.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.04 (Net Debt 11.8b / EBITDA 3.89b)
Debt / FCF = 6.34 (Net Debt 11.8b / FCF TTM 1.86b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.11% (Net Income 1.61b / Total Assets 78.3b)
RoE = 6.91% (Net Income TTM 1.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.3b)
RoCE = 7.57% (EBIT 2.68b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.3b + L.T.Debt 12.1b))
RoIC = 5.49% (NOPAT 2.12b / Invested Capital 38.7b)
WACC = 5.36% (E(65.0b)/V(78.2b) * Re(5.67%) + D(13.2b)/V(78.2b) * Rd(4.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.60 | Cagr: 8.48%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈2.13b ; Y1≈1.87b ; Y5≈1.51b
[DCF] Fair Price = 48.23 (EV 24.2b - Net Debt 11.8b = Equity 12.4b / Shares 256.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.70 | EPS CAGR: 11.66% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.22 | Revenue CAGR: 17.53% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.82 | Chg30d=-1.33% | Revisions=-61% | Analysts=20
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=-0.35% | Revisions=-53% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.20 | Chg30d=-0.51% | Revisions=-65% | GrowthEPS=+23.4% | GrowthRev=+21.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.87 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+13% | GrowthEPS=+12.7% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -51% (up=13, down=43)