AJG Stock Analysis: Arthur J Gallagher | NYSE
Insurance Brokers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 72.209m USD | 12M Return: 11.5% | US3635761097 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 488M
EPS Trend: 97.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a global insurance and reinsurance brokerage and risk management firm operating through two main segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage segment provides retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance placement, along with managing general agent and managing general underwriter services for distributing specialized coverages. The Risk Management segment delivers contract claims settlement and administration, loss control consulting, and insurance property appraisal services. The company serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and nonprofit clients worldwide through a network of correspondent brokers and consultants. Founded in 1927 and headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, Gallagher has been publicly traded since its 1984 IPO.
As an insurance broker, AJG operates in the Financials sector (GICS sub-industry: Insurance Brokers), earning revenue primarily through commissions and fees paid by insurance carriers for placing coverage on behalf of clients, rather than underwriting risk directly. This intermediary business model distinguishes brokers from insurance carriers, allowing firms like Gallagher to scale without bearing underwriting losses, though commission revenues are closely tied to premium pricing cycles in the broader insurance market.
- Organic growth in Brokerage segment drives margin expansion
- Acquisition strategy adds scale in specialty insurance lines
- Higher interest rates boost investment income on premiums
| Net Income: 1.70b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.42 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.99% < 20% (prev 17.25%; Δ -4.27% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 3.06b > Net Income 1.70b |
| Net Debt (12.0b) to EBITDA (4.21b): 2.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (259.4m) vs 12m ago -0.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.89% > 18% (prev 56.33%; Δ 16.56% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 20.70% > 50% (prev 16.48%; Δ 4.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.81b / Interest Expense TTM 655.0m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 42.3b - Total Current Liabilities 40.2b) / Total Assets 79.1b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 6.81b / Total Assets 79.1b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 2.81b / Avg Total Assets 79.1b) |
| D: 0.44 (Book Value of Equity 24.0b / Total Liabilities 55.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.15 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 5.98b/5.43b, Revenue 16.4b/13.0b) |
| GMI: 0.77 (GM 56.33% / 72.89%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.44) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 16.4b / 13.0b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 1.70b - CFO 3.06b) / TA 79.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 282.94 with a total of 1,182,183 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.47%, over one month by +21.49%, over three months by +11.92% and over the past year by +11.51%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 266.00 (which is 6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Arthur J Gallagher has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.04. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AJG.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 300.1 | 6.1% |
P/E Trailing = 42.9939
P/E Forward = 19.084
P/S = 4.5795
P/B = 3.004
P/EG = 1.0098
Revenue TTM = 16.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.81b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 11.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.3b USD (corrected: LT Debt 11.7b + ST Debt 1.01b) + Leases 518.0m
Net Debt = 12.0b USD (calculated: Debt 13.3b - CCE 1.21b)
Enterprise Value = 84.3b USD (72.2b + Debt 13.3b - CCE 1.21b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.29 (Ebit TTM 2.81b / Interest Expense TTM 655.0m)
EV/FCF = 29.17x (Enterprise Value 84.3b / FCF TTM 2.89b)
FCF Yield = 3.43% (FCF TTM 2.89b / Enterprise Value 84.3b)
FCF Margin = 17.65% (FCF TTM 2.89b / Revenue TTM 16.4b)
Net Margin = 10.38% (Net Income TTM 1.70b / Revenue TTM 16.4b)
Gross Margin = 72.89% ((Revenue TTM 16.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.29% (prev 80.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 84.3b / Total Assets 79.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.94% (Interest Expense 655.0m / Debt 13.3b)
Taxrate = 20.68% (445.0m / 2.15b)
NOPAT = 2.23b (EBIT 2.81b * (1 - 20.68%))
Current Ratio = 1.05 (Total Current Assets 42.3b / Total Current Liabilities 40.2b)
Debt / Equity = 0.55 (Debt 13.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 24.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.86 (Net Debt 12.0b / EBITDA 4.21b)
Debt / FCF = 4.17 (Net Debt 12.0b / FCF TTM 2.89b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.15% (Net Income 1.70b / Total Assets 79.1b)
RoE = 7.16% (Net Income TTM 1.70b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.7b)
RoCE = 7.92% (EBIT 2.81b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.7b + L.T.Debt 11.7b))
RoIC = 5.70% (NOPAT 2.23b / Invested Capital 39.1b)
WACC = 4.31% (E(72.2b)/V(85.5b) * Re(4.38%) + D(13.3b)/V(85.5b) * Rd(4.94%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 4.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.95 | Cagr: 6.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.44b ; Y1≈2.80b ; Y5≈4.12b
[DCF] Fair Price = 194.6 (EV 61.9b - Net Debt 12.0b = Equity 49.9b / Shares 256.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 97.21 | EPS CAGR: 12.12% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.94 | Revenue CAGR: 19.13% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=4.96 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=-18% | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.09 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=-55% | GrowthEPS=+22.5% | GrowthRev=+21.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.80 | Chg30d=-0.42% | Revisions=-36% | GrowthEPS=+13.1% | GrowthRev=+8.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43% (up=7, down=20)