(AL) Air Lease - Ratings and Ratios
Aircraft Leasing, Fleet Management, Aircraft Sales
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.37% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.30% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.65% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 19.1% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 2.29% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 3.56% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.62% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.89 |
| Alpha | 15.37 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.89 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.730 |
| Beta | 1.062 |
| Beta Downside | 1.487 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.61% |
| Mean DD | 7.81% |
| Median DD | 7.62% |
Description: AL Air Lease November 05, 2025
Air Lease Corporation (NYSE: AL) is a global aircraft lessor that purchases new commercial jets and leases them to airlines across all major regions, while also selling aircraft to third-party investors and providing fleet-management services. As of June 30 2025 the company owned 495 jets, managed an additional 53 on behalf of other owners, and had 241 aircraft on order, reflecting a sizable growth pipeline.
Key financial metrics that analysts watch include AL’s 2024 EBITDA margin of roughly 30% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 3.5×, indicating moderate leverage for a capital-intensive business. The firm’s order backlog, valued at about $30 billion, is heavily weighted toward narrow-body models (e.g., Airbus A320neo family and Boeing 737 MAX), which benefit from the current airline focus on fuel-efficient, high-utilisation fleets.
Sector-level drivers remain pivotal: global passenger traffic is rebounding toward pre-pandemic levels, especially in Asia-Pacific, supporting lease demand; however, rising interest rates increase financing costs for lessors, while supply chain bottlenecks at aircraft manufacturers can compress order-to-delivery timelines and affect pricing dynamics.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation of AL, the ValueRay platform offers granular lease-rate assumptions and scenario analysis you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (1.02b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 174.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.32pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -18.14% (prev -26.89%; Δ 8.75pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.75b > Net Income 1.02b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (19.74b) to EBITDA (2.76b) ratio: 7.15 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.80 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (112.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.48% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 36.95% (prev 31.81%; Δ 5.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 8.87% (prev 8.51%; Δ 0.36pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.76 (EBITDA TTM 2.76b / Interest Expense TTM 269.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.91
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 2.09b - Total Current Liabilities 2.62b) / Total Assets 33.39b |
| (B) 0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.95b / Total Assets 33.39b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 1.55b / Avg Total Assets 32.77b |
| (D) 0.20 = Book Value of Equity 4.95b / Total Liabilities 25.05b |
| Total Rating: 0.91 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 43.24
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -6.77% |
| 3. FCF Margin -62.56% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.42 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 7.15 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.11)% |
| 7. RoE 12.77% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 90.49% |
| 9. EPS Trend -24.80% |
What is the price of AL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.27%, over one month by +0.71%, over three months by +1.26% and over the past year by +31.85%.
Is AL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 66 | 3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 66 | 3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 75.5 | 17.8% |
AL Fundamental Data Overview December 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 7.42
P/E Forward = 12.3001
P/S = 2.458
P/B = 0.857
P/EG = 0.91
Beta = 1.203
Revenue TTM = 2.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.55b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.76b USD
Long Term Debt = 18.69b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.25b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.74b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 26.89b USD (7.15b + Debt 20.19b - CCE 452.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.76 (Ebit TTM 1.55b / Interest Expense TTM 269.6m)
FCF Yield = -6.77% (FCF TTM -1.82b / Enterprise Value 26.89b)
FCF Margin = -62.56% (FCF TTM -1.82b / Revenue TTM 2.91b)
Net Margin = 35.09% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 2.91b)
Gross Margin = 36.95% ((Revenue TTM 2.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.83b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.11% (prev 29.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 26.89b / Total Assets 33.39b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.13% (Interest Expense 228.4m / Debt 20.19b)
Taxrate = 20.82% (38.5m / 185.0m)
NOPAT = 1.23b (EBIT 1.55b * (1 - 20.82%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 2.09b / Total Current Liabilities 2.62b)
Debt / Equity = 2.42 (Debt 20.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.15 (Net Debt 19.74b / EBITDA 2.76b)
Debt / FCF = -10.85 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 19.74b / FCF TTM -1.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.06% (Net Income 1.02b / Total Assets 33.39b)
RoE = 12.77% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.99b)
RoCE = 5.82% (EBIT 1.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.99b + L.T.Debt 18.69b))
RoIC = 4.37% (NOPAT 1.23b / Invested Capital 28.14b)
WACC = 3.26% (E(7.15b)/V(27.34b) * Re(9.93%) + D(20.19b)/V(27.34b) * Rd(1.13%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.42%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -1.82b)
EPS Correlation: -24.80 | EPS CAGR: -5.62% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.49 | Revenue CAGR: 5.32% | SUE: -0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.12 | Chg30d=-0.053 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.35 | Chg30d=+0.422 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+25.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.6%
Additional Sources for AL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle