ALSN Stock Analysis: Allison Transmission | NYSE
Auto Parts | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.670m USD | 12M Return: 21% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 125M
EPS Trend: 14.1%
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 62.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE: ALSN) is a U.S.-based industrial manufacturer that designs, produces, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. Its products serve a broad set of end markets, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire and emergency trucks, school and transit buses, motor homes, off-highway equipment, and wheeled and tracked military vehicles.
In addition to new transmissions sold under the Allison Transmission brand and remanufactured units marketed as ReTran, the company generates revenue from branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, defense kits, engineering services, and extended coverage programs sold to OEMs, distributors, and the U.S. government. Founded in 1915 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, Allison has been publicly traded on the NYSE since its March 2012 IPO.
As a pure-play in heavy-duty automatic transmissions, Allison operates in a relatively consolidated niche alongside competitors such as Daimler Trucks Detroit Diesel, ZF Friedrichshafen, and Voith, where high switching costs and long product lifecycles support a recurring aftermarket revenue stream from the global installed base of Allison-equipped vehicles.
- Commercial truck demand drives on-highway segment revenue
- Defense vehicle sales depend on U.S. military procurement budgets
- Electrification transition in heavy-duty vehicles expands addressable market
| Net Income: 543.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.90% < 20% (prev 32.85%; Δ -3.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 805.0m > Net Income 543.0m |
| Net Debt (3.96b) to EBITDA (991.0m): 4.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (84.0m) vs 12m ago -2.38% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.79% > 18% (prev 48.06%; Δ -7.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.72% > 50% (prev 59.67%; Δ -7.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.33 > 6 (EBIT TTM 835.0m / Interest Expense TTM 132.0m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 2.30b - Total Current Liabilities 1.25b) / Total Assets 8.75b |
| B: 0.00 (Retained Earnings 29.0m / Total Assets 8.75b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 835.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.06b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 1.90b / Total Liabilities 6.85b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.89 = BBB |
| DSRI: 2.05 (Receivables 892.0m/381.0m, Revenue 3.65b/3.20b) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 48.06% / 40.79%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 3.65b / 3.20b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 543.0m - CFO 805.0m) / TA 8.75b) |
| Beneish M = -1.91 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 114.21 with a total of 391,489 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.86%, over one month by +0.34%, over three months by -10.91% and over the past year by +20.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 106.50 (which is 6.8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Allison Transmission has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.30. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ALSN.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 137.4 | 20.3% |
P/E Trailing = 18.1056
P/E Forward = 12.6422
P/S = 2.6494
P/B = 5.0716
P/EG = 0.683
Revenue TTM = 3.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 835.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 991.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.27b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.00m
Net Debt = 3.96b USD (calculated: Debt 4.27b - CCE 311.0m)
Enterprise Value = 13.6b USD (9.67b + Debt 4.27b - CCE 311.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.33 (Ebit TTM 835.0m / Interest Expense TTM 132.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.66x (Enterprise Value 13.6b / FCF TTM 660.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.84% (FCF TTM 660.0m / Enterprise Value 13.6b)
FCF Margin = 18.08% (FCF TTM 660.0m / Revenue TTM 3.65b)
Net Margin = 14.88% (Net Income TTM 543.0m / Revenue TTM 3.65b)
Gross Margin = 40.79% ((Revenue TTM 3.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.88% (prev 47.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.56 (Enterprise Value 13.6b / Total Assets 8.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.09% (Interest Expense 132.0m / Debt 4.27b)
Taxrate = 22.76% (160.0m / 703.0m)
NOPAT = 645.0m (EBIT 835.0m * (1 - 22.76%))
Current Ratio = 1.85 (Total Current Assets 2.30b / Total Current Liabilities 1.25b)
Debt / Equity = 2.25 (Debt 4.27b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.90b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.00 (Net Debt 3.96b / EBITDA 991.0m)
Debt / FCF = 6.00 (Net Debt 3.96b / FCF TTM 660.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.69% (Net Income 543.0m / Total Assets 8.75b)
RoE = 29.49% (Net Income TTM 543.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.84b)
RoCE = 13.72% (EBIT 835.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.84b + L.T.Debt 4.25b))
RoIC = 8.79% (NOPAT 645.0m / Invested Capital 7.34b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(9.67b)/V(13.9b) * Re(9.77%) + D(4.27b)/V(13.9b) * Rd(3.09%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.45 | Cagr: -2.51%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.62% ; FCFF base≈656.4m ; Y1≈666.7m ; Y5≈722.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.41 (EV 11.2b - Net Debt 3.96b = Equity 7.25b / Shares 82.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.38% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 14.14 | EPS CAGR: 1.53% | SUE: -3.53 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 62.21 | Revenue CAGR: 3.97% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.56 | Chg30d=+7.89% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.50 | Chg30d=+10.05% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.93 | Chg30d=+2.73% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+30.9% | GrowthRev=+92.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.35 | Chg30d=+1.34% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+14.3% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +63% (up=14, down=2)