ALSN Stock Analysis: Allison Transmission | NYSE
Auto Parts | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.072m USD | 12M Return: 36.2% | US01973R1014 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 90.0M
EPS Trend: 31.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 68.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ALSN) designs, manufactures, and sells fully automatic transmissions and electrified propulsion systems for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, as well as medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. Its products serve a broad set of on-highway applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency trucks; school and transit buses; and motor homes, as well as off-highway equipment in energy, mining, and construction. The company also supplies wheeled and tracked defense vehicles, operating worldwide and marketing its products under the Allison Transmission brand, with remanufactured units sold under the ReTran brand.
In addition to transmissions, Allison sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government, creating an aftermarket revenue stream tied to its installed base. The company sits within the Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment sub-industry of the GICS Industrials sector, a category that supplies durable, mission-critical components with long product life cycles. Founded in 1915 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, Allison has been publicly traded on the NYSE since its 2012 IPO.
- North American Class 8 truck production cycles drive on-highway revenue
- Defense segment revenue expands on U.S. tactical vehicle demand
- Electrification adoption accelerates with eGen product portfolio growth
| Net Income: 529.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.87% < 20% (prev 34.84%; Δ -5.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 933.0m > Net Income 529.0m |
| Net Debt (3.72b) to EBITDA (1.10b): 3.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (84.0m) vs 12m ago -1.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.53% > 18% (prev 48.41%; Δ -8.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.32% > 50% (prev 59.14%; Δ -6.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.30 > 6 (EBIT TTM 870.0m / Interest Expense TTM 164.0m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 2.39b - Total Current Liabilities 1.32b) / Total Assets 8.72b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 139.0m / Total Assets 8.72b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 870.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.06b) |
| D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 1.98b / Total Liabilities 6.74b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.99 = BBB |
| DSRI: 2.10 (Receivables 911.0m/375.0m, Revenue 3.70b/3.20b) |
| GMI: 1.22 (GM 48.41% / 39.53%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 3.70b / 3.20b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 529.0m - CFO 933.0m) / TA 8.72b) |
| Beneish M = -1.83 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 110.70 with a total of 506,216 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.05%, over one month by -10.36%, over three months by -3.57% and over the past year by +36.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 105.60 (which is 4.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Allison Transmission has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ALSN.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 138.9 | 25.5% |
P/E Trailing = 17.3555
P/E Forward = 10.2145
P/S = 2.0609
P/B = 4.7815
P/EG = 0.5237
Revenue TTM = 3.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 870.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.10b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.09b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.12b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.00m
Net Debt = 3.72b USD (calculated: Debt 4.12b - CCE 399.0m)
Enterprise Value = 12.8b USD (9.07b + Debt 4.12b - CCE 399.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.30 (Ebit TTM 870.0m / Interest Expense TTM 164.0m)
EV/FCF = 17.50x (Enterprise Value 12.8b / FCF TTM 731.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.71% (FCF TTM 731.0m / Enterprise Value 12.8b)
FCF Margin = 19.78% (FCF TTM 731.0m / Revenue TTM 3.70b)
Net Margin = 14.31% (Net Income TTM 529.0m / Revenue TTM 3.70b)
Gross Margin = 39.53% ((Revenue TTM 3.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.16% (prev 27.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 12.8b / Total Assets 8.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.98% (Interest Expense 164.0m / Debt 4.12b)
Taxrate = 23.22% (160.0m / 689.0m)
NOPAT = 668.0m (EBIT 870.0m * (1 - 23.22%))
Current Ratio = 1.81 (Total Current Assets 2.39b / Total Current Liabilities 1.32b)
Debt / Equity = 2.08 (Debt 4.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.39 (Net Debt 3.72b / EBITDA 1.10b)
Debt / FCF = 5.09 (Net Debt 3.72b / FCF TTM 731.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.49% (Net Income 529.0m / Total Assets 8.72b)
RoE = 27.88% (Net Income TTM 529.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.90b)
RoCE = 14.52% (EBIT 870.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.90b + L.T.Debt 4.09b))
RoIC = 9.24% (NOPAT 668.0m / Invested Capital 7.23b)
WACC = 7.55% (E(9.07b)/V(13.2b) * Re(9.59%) + D(4.12b)/V(13.2b) * Rd(3.98%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.16 | Cagr: -2.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.76% ; FCFF base≈702.2m ; Y1≈768.7m ; Y5≈967.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 134.1 (EV 14.8b - Net Debt 3.72b = Equity 11.1b / Shares 82.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 10.93% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 31.36 | EPS CAGR: 2.35% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 68.24 | Revenue CAGR: 5.43% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.48 | Chg30d=+2.34% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.95 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+31.2% | GrowthRev=+97.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.26 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+13.1% | GrowthRev=+4.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)