ALSN Stock Analysis: Allison Transmission | NYSE
Auto Parts | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 10.359m USD | 12M Return: 50.5% | US01973R1014 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 99.1M
EPS Trend: 31.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 68.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Allison Transmission Holdings (NYSE: ALSN) is a U.S.-based industrial manufacturer that designs, produces, and sells fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles, and electrified propulsion systems worldwide. Its products serve a broad set of end markets, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire and emergency trucks, school and transit buses, motor homes, off-highway equipment, and wheeled and tracked military vehicles.
In addition to new transmissions sold under the Allison Transmission brand and remanufactured units marketed as ReTran, the company generates revenue from branded replacement parts, support equipment, aluminum die cast components, defense kits, engineering services, and extended coverage programs sold to OEMs, distributors, and the U.S. government. Founded in 1915 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, Allison has been publicly traded on the NYSE since its March 2012 IPO.
As a pure-play in heavy-duty automatic transmissions, Allison operates in a relatively consolidated niche alongside competitors such as Daimler Trucks Detroit Diesel, ZF Friedrichshafen, and Voith, where high switching costs and long product lifecycles support a recurring aftermarket revenue stream from the global installed base of Allison-equipped vehicles.
- Commercial truck demand drives on-highway segment revenue
- Defense vehicle sales depend on U.S. military procurement budgets
- Electrification transition in heavy-duty vehicles expands addressable market
| Net Income: 529.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 28.87% < 20% (prev 34.84%; Δ -5.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 933.0m > Net Income 529.0m |
| Net Debt (3.72b) to EBITDA (1.09b): 3.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (84.0m) vs 12m ago -1.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.53% > 18% (prev 48.41%; Δ -8.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.32% > 50% (prev 59.14%; Δ -6.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.30 > 6 (EBIT TTM 870.0m / Interest Expense TTM 164.0m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 2.39b - Total Current Liabilities 1.32b) / Total Assets 8.72b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 139.0m / Total Assets 8.72b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 870.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.06b) |
| D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 1.98b / Total Liabilities 6.74b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.99 = BBB |
| DSRI: 2.10 (Receivables 911.0m/375.0m, Revenue 3.70b/3.20b) |
| GMI: 1.22 (GM 48.41% / 39.53%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 3.70b / 3.20b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 529.0m - CFO 933.0m) / TA 8.72b) |
| Beneish M = -1.83 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 128.78 with a total of 859,762 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.15%, over one month by +8.21%, over three months by +15.62% and over the past year by +50.54%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 123.70 (which is 3.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Allison Transmission has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.30. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ALSN.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 139.4 | 8.2% |
P/E Trailing = 20.1364
P/E Forward = 13.0719
P/S = 2.3533
P/B = 5.3039
P/EG = 0.6706
Revenue TTM = 3.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 870.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.09b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.09b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.12b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.00m
Net Debt = 3.72b USD (calculated: Debt 4.12b - CCE 399.0m)
Enterprise Value = 14.1b USD (10.4b + Debt 4.12b - CCE 399.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.30 (Ebit TTM 870.0m / Interest Expense TTM 164.0m)
EV/FCF = 19.26x (Enterprise Value 14.1b / FCF TTM 731.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.19% (FCF TTM 731.0m / Enterprise Value 14.1b)
FCF Margin = 19.78% (FCF TTM 731.0m / Revenue TTM 3.70b)
Net Margin = 14.31% (Net Income TTM 529.0m / Revenue TTM 3.70b)
Gross Margin = 39.53% ((Revenue TTM 3.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.16% (prev 27.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.62 (Enterprise Value 14.1b / Total Assets 8.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.98% (Interest Expense 164.0m / Debt 4.12b)
Taxrate = 23.22% (160.0m / 689.0m)
NOPAT = 668.0m (EBIT 870.0m * (1 - 23.22%))
Current Ratio = 1.81 (Total Current Assets 2.39b / Total Current Liabilities 1.32b)
Debt / Equity = 2.08 (Debt 4.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.40 (Net Debt 3.72b / EBITDA 1.09b)
Debt / FCF = 5.09 (Net Debt 3.72b / FCF TTM 731.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.49% (Net Income 529.0m / Total Assets 8.72b)
RoE = 27.88% (Net Income TTM 529.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.90b)
RoCE = 14.52% (EBIT 870.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.90b + L.T.Debt 4.09b))
RoIC = 9.24% (NOPAT 668.0m / Invested Capital 7.23b)
WACC = 7.82% (E(10.4b)/V(14.5b) * Re(9.71%) + D(4.12b)/V(14.5b) * Rd(3.98%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.16 | Cagr: -2.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.81% ; FCFF base≈723.0m ; Y1≈743.0m ; Y5≈824.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 109.4 (EV 12.8b - Net Debt 3.72b = Equity 9.04b / Shares 82.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 2.81% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 31.36 | EPS CAGR: 2.35% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 68.24 | Revenue CAGR: 5.43% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.46 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.98 | Chg30d=+0.47% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+31.7% | GrowthRev=+96.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.41 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+14.3% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +11% (up=9, down=7)