(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Packaging & Containers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.355m USD | Total Return: 49.1% in 12m
Stock
Metal Cans, Beverage Containers, Packaging
Total Rating 48
Risk 61
Buy Signal -0.46
Market Cap:
2,355m
Avg Trading Vol: 6.63M USD
Avg Trading Vol: 6.63M USD
ATR:
4.23%
Peers RS (IBD): 32.2
Peers RS (IBD): 32.2
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility39.2%
Rel. Tail Risk-11.3%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.98
Alpha33.21
Character TTM
Beta0.892
Beta Downside0.414
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD39.16%
CAGR/Max DD0.36
EPS (Earnings per Share)
EPS CAGR: -45.38%
EPS Trend: -26.3%
EPS Trend: -26.3%
Last SUE: -1.89
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue
Rev. CAGR: 4.60%
Rev. Trend: 64.4%
Rev. Trend: 64.4%
Last SUE: 0.83
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Description: AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging
March 05, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a metal beverage can manufacturer. The company operates in Europe, the United States, and Brazil, supplying a range of beverage categories including beer, soft drinks, and juices. This business model relies on consistent demand from established beverage brands and emerging drink trends.
Founded in 1932 and headquartered in Luxembourg, AMBP is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A. The metal packaging sector is characterized by high capital expenditure for manufacturing facilities and a focus on sustainability due to the recyclability of aluminum.
For more detailed financial analysis, consider exploring ValueRays platform.
- Beverage can demand rises with consumer spending
- Aluminum prices impact production costs
- European energy costs squeeze margins
- Brazil market growth boosts revenue
- Sustainability trends favor metal packaging
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10)
3.5
| Net Income: 11.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.02% < 20% (prev 3.71%; Δ -1.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 449.0m > Net Income 11.0m |
| Net Debt (3.90b) to EBITDA (595.0m): 6.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.55% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1.04k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 98.68% > 50% (prev 89.86%; Δ 8.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.00 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 595.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m) |
Altman Z''
-0.34
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.84b - Total Current Liabilities 1.73b) / Total Assets 5.68b |
| B: -0.17 (Retained Earnings -972.0m / Total Assets 5.68b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 210.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.57b) |
| D: -0.16 (Book Value of Equity -1.02b / Total Liabilities 6.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.34 = B |
Beneish M
-2.81
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 734.0m/618.0m, Revenue 5.50b/4.91b) |
| GMI: 1.22 (GM 10.55% / 12.84%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 5.50b / 4.91b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 11.0m - CFO 449.0m) / TA 5.68b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AMBP shares?
As of April 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.05 with a total of 1,474,259 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.64%, over one month by -14.52%, over three months by +1.11% and over the past year by +49.07%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.64%, over one month by -14.52%, over three months by +1.11% and over the past year by +49.07%.
Is AMBP a buy, sell or hold?
Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold AMBP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBP price?
| ISSUER | TARGET | UP/DOWN |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 4.8 | 18% |
| Analysts Target Price | 4.8 | 18% |
AMBP Fundamental Data Overview
March 29, 2026
P/E Forward = 15.674 P/S = 0.4284
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 210.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 595.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.30b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 118.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.42b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.90b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.25b USD (2.35b + Debt 4.42b - CCE 522.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.00 (Ebit TTM 210.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m)
EV/FCF = 23.59x (Enterprise Value 6.25b / FCF TTM 265.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.24% (FCF TTM 265.0m / Enterprise Value 6.25b)
FCF Margin = 4.82% (FCF TTM 265.0m / Revenue TTM 5.50b)
Net Margin = 0.20% (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Revenue TTM 5.50b)
Gross Margin = 10.55% ((Revenue TTM 5.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.92b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.62% (prev 11.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 6.25b / Total Assets 5.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.18% (Interest Expense 52.0m / Debt 4.42b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 165.9m (EBIT 210.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.84b / Total Current Liabilities 1.73b)
Debt / Equity = -6.47 (negative equity) (Debt 4.42b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -683.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.55 (Net Debt 3.90b / EBITDA 595.0m)
Debt / FCF = 14.71 (Net Debt 3.90b / FCF TTM 265.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -395.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.20% (Net Income 11.0m / Total Assets 5.68b)
RoE = -2.78% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -395.2m)
RoCE = 5.38% (EBIT 210.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -395.2m + L.T.Debt 4.30b))
RoIC = 4.37% (NOPAT 165.9m / Invested Capital 3.79b)
WACC = 3.78% (E(2.35b)/V(6.77b) * Re(9.12%) + D(4.42b)/V(6.77b) * Rd(1.18%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF] Terminal Value 82.82% ; FCFF base≈264.6m ; Y1≈197.5m ; Y5≈116.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.61b - Net Debt 3.90b = -283.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -26.32 | EPS CAGR: -45.38% | SUE: -1.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 64.36 | Revenue CAGR: 4.60% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+18.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg7d=+0.002 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+20.2% | Growth Revenue=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -0.50 (1 Up / 3 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)