Overview Dividends

(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Luxembourg • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: LU2369833749

Metal Cans, Beverage Packaging, Aluminum Containers, Steel Cans

Diversified Metals & Mining
Market Cap in USD: 2,211m

IPO / Inception: 2021-08-05
Return 12m vs S&P 500: 2.78%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -8.14%
EPS Trend: -33.1%

Last SUE: 0.54
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 7.55%
Rev. Trend: 66.8%

Last SUE: 0.83
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	13.33%
Yield on Cost 5y	7.43%
Yield CAGR 5y	15.47%
Payout Consistency	98.8%
Payout Ratio	2.3%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	39.8%
Value at Risk 5%th	59.0%
Relative Tail Risk	-9.93%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.47
Alpha	5.64
CAGR/Max DD	0.09

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.630
Beta	0.622
Beta Downside	0.616

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	52.14%
Mean DD	26.16%
Median DD	28.00%

Description: AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging November 10, 2025

Ardag Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE: AMBP) and its subsidiaries manufacture metal beverage cans for a broad range of drinks-including beer, soft drinks, energy drinks, sparkling water, hard seltzer, juice, pre-mixed cocktails, tea, and wine-serving producers across Europe, the United States, and Brazil. The firm, founded in 1932 and headquartered in Luxembourg, operates as a subsidiary of the larger Ardagh Group S.A.

Key operating data (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly $2.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 10 %, reflecting modest profitability in a capital-intensive, commodity-sensitive segment. The business is heavily exposed to aluminum price fluctuations, yet benefits from a growing global shift toward recyclable packaging; the European Union’s recent mandate to increase recycled content in cans to 30 % by 2027 is a sector-wide tailwind. Additionally, the United States’ “Drink Up” campaign has driven a 4 % YoY increase in per-capita canned-beverage consumption, supporting demand growth for AMBP’s product lines.

For a deeper, data-driven look at AMBP’s valuation multiples, peer benchmarks, and scenario analyses, the ValueRay platform offers a concise research hub worth exploring.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (16.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 320.8m TTM)

FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.12pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 2.43% (prev 4.64%; Δ -2.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 466.0m > Net Income 16.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (3.78b) to EBITDA (625.0m) ratio: 6.04 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.09 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (597.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.0% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 11.50% (prev 10.86%; Δ 0.65pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 97.21% (prev 87.41%; Δ 9.80pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.19 (EBITDA TTM 625.0m / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -1.23

(A) 0.02 = (Total Current Assets 1.59b - Total Current Liabilities 1.46b) / Total Assets 5.46b

(B) -0.17 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -901.0m / Total Assets 5.46b

(D) -1.09 = Book Value of Equity -6.33b / Total Liabilities 5.79b

Total Rating: -1.23 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 51.08

1. Piotroski 3.50pt

2. FCF Yield 4.83%

3. FCF Margin 5.41%

4. Debt/Equity -11.97

5. Debt/Ebitda 6.04

6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.19)%

7. RoE -6.15%

8. Rev. Trend 66.80%

9. EPS Trend -33.12%

What is the price of AMBP shares?

As of November 29, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 3.75 with a total of 689,515 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.27%, over one month by +3.43%, over three months by +5.99% and over the past year by +17.98%.

Is AMBP a buy, sell or hold?

Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AMBP.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 5
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBP price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	4.3	14.7%
Analysts Target Price	4.3	14.7%
ValueRay Target Price	4.3	15.2%

AMBP Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025

Market Cap USD = 2.21b (2.21b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 14.9701
P/S = 0.4137
P/B = 94.3249
Beta = 0.584
Revenue TTM = 5.35b USD
EBIT TTM = 243.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 625.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.95b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 140.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.78b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.99b USD (2.21b + Debt 4.09b - CCE 317.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.19 (Ebit TTM 243.0m / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.83% (FCF TTM 289.0m / Enterprise Value 5.99b)
FCF Margin = 5.41% (FCF TTM 289.0m / Revenue TTM 5.35b)
Net Margin = 0.30% (Net Income TTM 16.0m / Revenue TTM 5.35b)
Gross Margin = 11.50% ((Revenue TTM 5.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.27% (prev 10.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 5.99b / Total Assets 5.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.32% (Interest Expense 54.0m / Debt 4.09b)
Taxrate = 27.03% (10.0m / 37.0m)
NOPAT = 177.3m (EBIT 243.0m * (1 - 27.03%))
Current Ratio = 1.09 (Total Current Assets 1.59b / Total Current Liabilities 1.46b)
Debt / Equity = -11.97 (negative equity) (Debt 4.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -342.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.04 (Net Debt 3.78b / EBITDA 625.0m)
Debt / FCF = 13.07 (Net Debt 3.78b / FCF TTM 289.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -260.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.29% (Net Income 16.0m / Total Assets 5.46b)
RoE = -6.15% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 16.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -260.0m)
RoCE = 6.58% (EBIT 243.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -260.0m + L.T.Debt 3.95b))
RoIC = 4.73% (NOPAT 177.3m / Invested Capital 3.75b)
WACC = 3.54% (E(2.21b)/V(6.30b) * Re(8.31%) + D(4.09b)/V(6.30b) * Rd(1.32%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.87% ; FCFE base≈293.4m ; Y1≈227.3m ; Y5≈144.7m
Fair Price DCF = 4.33 (DCF Value 2.59b / Shares Outstanding 597.7m; 5y FCF grow -26.81% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -33.12 | EPS CAGR: -8.14% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.80 | Revenue CAGR: 7.55% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for AMBP Stock

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