AMBP Stock Analysis: Ardagh Metal Packaging | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.821m USD | 12M Return: 27.4% | LU2369833749 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.12M
EPS Trend: 91.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 94.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based producer of metal beverage cans serving customers across Europe, North America, and Brazil. The company manufactures cans used for a variety of drinks, including sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, teas, and flavored alcoholic beverages, supplying beverage producers worldwide. Founded in 1932, AMBP operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A. and listed on the NYSE following its 2021 IPO. It is classified under the GICS Materials sector within the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry.
As a metal packaging supplier, AMBP operates in an industry characterized by long-standing relationships with major beverage brands and significant capital investment in manufacturing facilities. Aluminum beverage cans are among the most recycled packaging formats globally, supporting the industrys alignment with sustainability-focused brand owners.
- Aluminum cost volatility pressures beverage can margins
- Sustainability regulations accelerate shift from plastic to cans
- Ball Corp and Crown Holdings competition caps pricing power
| Net Income: 41.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.74% < 20% (prev 1.89%; Δ -0.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 495.0m > Net Income 41.0m |
| Net Debt (4.16b) to EBITDA (744.0m): 5.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.95% > 18% (prev 12.25%; Δ -1.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 108.4% > 50% (prev 95.32%; Δ 13.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.90b - Total Current Liabilities 1.79b) / Total Assets 5.57b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -1.06b / Total Assets 5.57b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 266.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.53b) |
| D: -0.12 (Book Value of Equity -758.0m / Total Liabilities 6.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.30 = B |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 1.07b/837.0m, Revenue 5.99b/5.23b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 12.25% / 10.95%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 5.99b / 5.23b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 41.0m - CFO 495.0m) / TA 5.57b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.52 with a total of 1,545,930 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.83%, over one month by -13.27%, over three months by +2.54% and over the past year by +27.42%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.20 (which is 7.1% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMBP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.2 | 14.6% |
P/E Trailing = 94.4
P/E Forward = 16.0
P/S = 0.4709
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 266.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 744.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.21b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 131.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.34b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.16b USD (calculated: Debt 4.34b - CCE 189.0m)
Enterprise Value = 6.98b USD (2.82b + Debt 4.34b - CCE 189.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.27 (Ebit TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m)
EV/FCF = 23.49x (Enterprise Value 6.98b / FCF TTM 297.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.26% (FCF TTM 297.0m / Enterprise Value 6.98b)
FCF Margin = 4.96% (FCF TTM 297.0m / Revenue TTM 5.99b)
Net Margin = 0.68% (Net Income TTM 41.0m / Revenue TTM 5.99b)
Gross Margin = 10.95% ((Revenue TTM 5.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.85% (prev 9.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 6.98b / Total Assets 5.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.81% (Interest Expense 209.0m / Debt 4.34b)
Taxrate = 8.89% (4.00m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 242.4m (EBIT 266.0m * (1 - 8.89%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.90b / Total Current Liabilities 1.79b)
Debt / Equity = -5.73 (negative equity) (Debt 4.34b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -758.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.58 (Net Debt 4.16b / EBITDA 744.0m)
Debt / FCF = 13.99 (Net Debt 4.16b / FCF TTM 297.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -620.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.74% (Net Income 41.0m / Total Assets 5.57b)
RoE = -6.61% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 41.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -620.2m)
RoCE = 7.40% (EBIT 266.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -620.2m + L.T.Debt 4.21b))
RoIC = 6.52% (NOPAT 242.4m / Invested Capital 3.72b)
WACC = 6.05% (E(2.82b)/V(7.17b) * Re(8.61%) + D(4.34b)/V(7.17b) * Rd(4.81%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 8.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 52.22 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.98% ; FCFF base≈292.2m ; Y1≈303.7m ; Y5≈344.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.95 (EV 5.32b - Net Debt 4.16b = Equity 1.17b / Shares 597.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.71 | EPS CAGR: 36.20% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 94.23 | Revenue CAGR: 8.45% | SUE: 2.21 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+29.5% | GrowthRev=+11.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.73% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=9, down=4)