(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Overview
Stock: Metal Cans, Beverage Packaging, Aluminum, Steel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 12.07% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.32% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.06% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.48 |
| Alpha | 77.20 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.628 |
| Beta Downside | 0.664 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.96% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.11 |
Description: AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging January 13, 2026
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE: AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based subsidiary of Ardagh Group that manufactures metal beverage cans for a wide range of drinks-including beer, soft drinks, energy drinks, hard seltzers, juices, pre-mixed cocktails, tea, and wine-across Europe, the United States, and Brazil.
In FY 2023 the company reported roughly $2.2 billion in net sales and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 13%, reflecting strong pricing power amid rising aluminum prices and a continued shift toward recyclable packaging. Capacity utilization averaged 92% across its 14 plants, with a recent $150 million expansion in Brazil aimed at capturing growth in the Latin American hard-seltzer and ready-to-drink cocktail markets.
Key economic drivers for Ardagh include global aluminum commodity trends (the LME Al price averaged $2,300/ton in 2023), tightening environmental regulations that favor recyclable metal over plastic, and the sustained premiumization of beverage categories that pushes producers toward higher-quality cans. The company’s exposure to end-market demand cycles-particularly the volatile beer segment versus the faster-growing non-alcoholic and functional drinks categories-adds a layer of earnings variability.
For a deeper dive into AMBP’s valuation metrics, balance-sheet health, and scenario-based forecasts, you may find the analyst tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 16.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.08 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.43% < 20% (prev 4.64%; Δ -2.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 466.0m > Net Income 16.0m |
| Net Debt (3.78b) to EBITDA (625.0m): 6.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.50% > 18% (prev 0.12%; Δ 1139 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 97.21% > 50% (prev 87.41%; Δ 9.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.19 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 625.0m / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m) |
Altman Z'' -1.23
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.59b - Total Current Liabilities 1.46b) / Total Assets 5.46b |
| B: -0.17 (Retained Earnings -901.0m / Total Assets 5.46b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 243.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.50b) |
| D: -1.09 (Book Value of Equity -6.33b / Total Liabilities 5.79b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.23 = CCC |
Beneish M -3.06
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 805.0m/752.0m, Revenue 5.35b/4.84b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 11.50% / 11.89%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 5.35b / 4.84b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 16.0m - CFO 466.0m) / TA 5.46b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AMBP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.50%, over one month by +12.62%, over three months by +37.28% and over the past year by +91.48%.
Is AMBP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 4.5 | -4.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 4.5 | -4.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6 | 30% |
AMBP Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/S = 0.4964
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.35b USD
EBIT TTM = 243.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 625.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.95b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 140.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.78b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.43b USD (2.65b + Debt 4.09b - CCE 317.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.19 (Ebit TTM 243.0m / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m)
EV/FCF = 22.25x (Enterprise Value 6.43b / FCF TTM 289.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.49% (FCF TTM 289.0m / Enterprise Value 6.43b)
FCF Margin = 5.41% (FCF TTM 289.0m / Revenue TTM 5.35b)
Net Margin = 0.30% (Net Income TTM 16.0m / Revenue TTM 5.35b)
Gross Margin = 11.50% ((Revenue TTM 5.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.27% (prev 10.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 6.43b / Total Assets 5.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.32% (Interest Expense 54.0m / Debt 4.09b)
Taxrate = 27.03% (10.0m / 37.0m)
NOPAT = 177.3m (EBIT 243.0m * (1 - 27.03%))
Current Ratio = 1.09 (Total Current Assets 1.59b / Total Current Liabilities 1.46b)
Debt / Equity = -11.97 (negative equity) (Debt 4.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -342.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.04 (Net Debt 3.78b / EBITDA 625.0m)
Debt / FCF = 13.07 (Net Debt 3.78b / FCF TTM 289.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -260.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.29% (Net Income 16.0m / Total Assets 5.46b)
RoE = -6.15% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 16.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -260.0m)
RoCE = 6.58% (EBIT 243.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -260.0m + L.T.Debt 3.95b))
RoIC = 4.67% (NOPAT 177.3m / Invested Capital 3.80b)
WACC = 3.82% (E(2.65b)/V(6.75b) * Re(8.23%) + D(4.09b)/V(6.75b) * Rd(1.32%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.28% ; FCFF base≈289.0m ; Y1≈208.0m ; Y5≈114.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.57b - Net Debt 3.78b = -205.9m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-33.00%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -30.85 | EPS CAGR: -40.11% | SUE: -1.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.78 | Revenue CAGR: 7.55% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+25.3% | Growth Revenue=+3.4%