AMBP Stock Analysis: Ardagh Metal Packaging | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.702m USD | 12M Return: 18.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.16M
EPS Trend: 85.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 94.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.7 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based producer of metal beverage cans serving customers across Europe, North America, and Brazil. The company manufactures cans used for a variety of drinks, including sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, teas, and flavored alcoholic beverages, supplying beverage producers worldwide. Founded in 1932, AMBP operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A. and listed on the NYSE following its 2021 IPO. It is classified under the GICS Materials sector within the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry.
As a metal packaging supplier, AMBP operates in an industry characterized by long-standing relationships with major beverage brands and significant capital investment in manufacturing facilities. Aluminum beverage cans are among the most recycled packaging formats globally, supporting the industrys alignment with sustainability-focused brand owners.
- Aluminum cost volatility pressures beverage can margins
- Sustainability regulations accelerate shift from plastic to cans
- Ball Corp and Crown Holdings competition caps pricing power
| Net Income: 11.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.52% < 20% (prev 2.52%; Δ -1.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 413.0m > Net Income 11.0m |
| Net Debt (4.34b) to EBITDA (687.0m): 6.31 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.57% > 18% (prev 13.05%; Δ -2.48% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 107.2% > 50% (prev 95.49%; Δ 11.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 216.0m / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.67b - Total Current Liabilities 1.58b) / Total Assets 5.42b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -1.03b / Total Assets 5.42b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 216.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.35b) |
| D: -0.11 (Book Value of Equity -698.0m / Total Liabilities 6.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.36 = B |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 959.0m/816.0m, Revenue 5.73b/5.04b) |
| GMI: 1.23 (GM 13.05% / 10.57%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 5.73b / 5.04b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 11.0m - CFO 413.0m) / TA 5.42b) |
| Beneish M = -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.59 with a total of 3,088,238 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.00%, over one month by +16.78%, over three months by +19.75% and over the past year by +18.87%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.40 (which is 4.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMBP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 4.5 | -2% |
P/E Forward = 17.9856
P/S = 0.4712
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 216.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 687.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.24b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.34b USD (calculated: Debt 4.48b - CCE 142.0m)
Enterprise Value = 7.04b USD (2.70b + Debt 4.48b - CCE 142.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.04 (Ebit TTM 216.0m / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m)
EV/FCF = 33.68x (Enterprise Value 7.04b / FCF TTM 209.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.97% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Enterprise Value 7.04b)
FCF Margin = 3.65% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Revenue TTM 5.73b)
Net Margin = 0.19% (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Revenue TTM 5.73b)
Gross Margin = 10.57% ((Revenue TTM 5.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.51% (prev 8.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.30 (Enterprise Value 7.04b / Total Assets 5.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.62% (Interest Expense 207.0m / Debt 4.48b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 170.6m (EBIT 216.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.67b / Total Current Liabilities 1.58b)
Debt / Equity = -6.42 (negative equity) (Debt 4.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -698.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.31 (Net Debt 4.34b / EBITDA 687.0m)
Debt / FCF = 20.76 (Net Debt 4.34b / FCF TTM 209.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -512.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.21% (Net Income 11.0m / Total Assets 5.42b)
RoE = -2.15% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -512.2m)
RoCE = 5.80% (EBIT 216.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -512.2m + L.T.Debt 4.24b))
RoIC = 4.33% (NOPAT 170.6m / Invested Capital 3.94b)
WACC = 5.61% (E(2.70b)/V(7.18b) * Re(8.86%) + D(4.48b)/V(7.18b) * Rd(4.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.63 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈251.4m ; Y1≈220.5m ; Y5≈178.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.86b - Net Debt 4.34b = -1.48b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 85.37 | EPS CAGR: 27.73% | SUE: 1.43 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.46 | Revenue CAGR: 7.13% | SUE: 2.32 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-11.29% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=+11% | GrowthEPS=+17.9% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-1.54% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+2.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -56%