Overview Dividends

(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Luxembourg • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: LU2369833749

Aluminum, Cans, Beverage, Steel

AMBP EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): 18.64%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): 29.3%

AMBP Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 10.84%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 75.3%

Description: AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging August 09, 2025

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (NYSE:AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based company operating in the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry. As a common stock, AMBPs performance is closely tied to the overall metal packaging market, driven by demand from beverage, food, and other industries.

The companys financial performance is a key driver of its stock price. With a market capitalization of $2.337 billion, AMBPs valuation is influenced by its earnings growth, profit margins, and return on equity. Although the current P/E ratio is not available, the forward P/E of 21.83 suggests that investors expect future earnings growth. Key drivers of AMBPs financial performance include revenue growth, EBITDA margins, and cash flow generation.

To evaluate AMBPs potential, its essential to monitor key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth rate, gross margin expansion, and debt-to-equity ratio. Additionally, industry trends, including metal packaging demand, raw material prices, and competitor activity, will impact AMBPs stock performance. Economic drivers like GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rates will also influence the companys valuation.

From a trading perspective, AMBPs stock price has been volatile, with a 52-week high of $4.62 and a low of $2.29. The current price of $3.80 is below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, indicating a potential downtrend. The average true range (ATR) of 0.11 (2.76%) suggests moderate volatility, while the beta of 0.559 indicates that AMBPs stock price is relatively less sensitive to overall market fluctuations.

AMBP Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	2,265m
Sub-Industry	Diversified Metals & Mining
IPO / Inception	2021-08-05

AMBP Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	18.1%
Fundamental	54.9%
Dividend Rating	71.8%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-7.91%
Analyst Rating	3.14 of 5

AMBP Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m	10.93%
Yield on Cost 5y	5.91%
Annual Growth 5y	15.47%
Payout Consistency	98.8%
Payout Ratio	1.6%

AMBP Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-0.6%
Growth Correlation 12m	67.5%
Growth Correlation 5y	-70%
CAGR 5y	5.95%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio)	0.11
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio)	0.23
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-0.08
Alpha	-2.29
Beta	0.571
Volatility	41.93%
Current Volume	3466.3k
Average Volume 20d	1119.3k
Stop Loss	3.5 (-4.4%)
Signal	-0.89

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (16.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 320.8m TTM)

FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.12pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 2.43% (prev 4.64%; Δ -2.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.09 (>3.0%) and CFO 466.0m > Net Income 16.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (3.78b) to EBITDA (625.0m) ratio: 6.04 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.09 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (597.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.0% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 11.50% (prev 10.86%; Δ 0.65pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 97.21% (prev 87.41%; Δ 9.80pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.19 (EBITDA TTM 625.0m / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -1.23

(A) 0.02 = (Total Current Assets 1.59b - Total Current Liabilities 1.46b) / Total Assets 5.46b

(B) -0.17 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -901.0m / Total Assets 5.46b

(D) -1.09 = Book Value of Equity -6.33b / Total Liabilities 5.79b

Total Rating: -1.23 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 54.85

1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50

2. FCF Yield 4.78% = 2.39

3. FCF Margin 5.41% = 1.35

4. Debt/Equity -11.97 = -2.50

5. Debt/Ebitda 6.04 = -2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.22)% = 1.52

7. RoE -6.15% = -1.03

8. Rev. Trend 75.29% = 5.65

9. EPS Trend 29.28% = 1.46

What is the price of AMBP shares?

As of October 30, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 3.66 with a total of 3,466,300 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.88%, over one month by -7.34%, over three months by -5.59% and over the past year by +10.13%.

Is Ardagh Metal Packaging a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Ardagh Metal Packaging is currently (October 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 54.85 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AMBP is around 3.80 USD . This means that AMBP is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 3.83%.

Is AMBP a buy, sell or hold?

Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AMBP.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 5
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBP price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	4.3	17.5%
Analysts Target Price	4.3	17.5%
ValueRay Target Price	4.1	10.7%

AMBP Fundamental Data Overview October 26, 2025

Market Cap USD = 2.27b (2.27b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 15.873
P/S = 0.4237
P/B = 94.3249
Beta = 0.571
Revenue TTM = 5.35b USD
EBIT TTM = 243.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 625.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.80b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 140.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.78b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.04b USD (2.27b + Debt 4.09b - CCE 317.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.19 (Ebit TTM 243.0m / Interest Expense TTM 205.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.78% (FCF TTM 289.0m / Enterprise Value 6.04b)
FCF Margin = 5.41% (FCF TTM 289.0m / Revenue TTM 5.35b)
Net Margin = 0.30% (Net Income TTM 16.0m / Revenue TTM 5.35b)
Gross Margin = 11.50% ((Revenue TTM 5.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.27% (prev 10.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 6.04b / Total Assets 5.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.32% (Interest Expense 54.0m / Debt 4.09b)
Taxrate = 27.03% (10.0m / 37.0m)
NOPAT = 177.3m (EBIT 243.0m * (1 - 27.03%))
Current Ratio = 1.09 (Total Current Assets 1.59b / Total Current Liabilities 1.46b)
Debt / Equity = -11.97 (negative equity) (Debt 4.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -342.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.04 (Net Debt 3.78b / EBITDA 625.0m)
Debt / FCF = 13.07 (Net Debt 3.78b / FCF TTM 289.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -260.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.29% (Net Income 16.0m / Total Assets 5.46b)
RoE = -6.15% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 16.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -260.0m)
RoCE = 6.87% (EBIT 243.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -260.0m + L.T.Debt 3.80b))
RoIC = 4.73% (NOPAT 177.3m / Invested Capital 3.75b)
WACC = 3.51% (E(2.27b)/V(6.36b) * Re(8.12%) + D(4.09b)/V(6.36b) * Rd(1.32%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.66% ; FCFE base≈293.4m ; Y1≈227.3m ; Y5≈144.7m
Fair Price DCF = 4.48 (DCF Value 2.68b / Shares Outstanding 597.7m; 5y FCF grow -26.81% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 29.28 | EPS CAGR: 18.64% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 75.29 | Revenue CAGR: 10.84% | SUE: 0.83 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for AMBP Stock

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