Overview Dividends

(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Luxembourg • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: LU2369833749

Aluminum, Cans, Beverage, Steel

AMBP EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -59.92%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -28.7%

AMBP Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 8.15%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 66.2%

Description: AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (NYSE:AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based company operating in the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry. As a common stock, AMBPs performance is closely tied to the overall metal packaging market, driven by demand from beverage, food, and other industries.

The companys financial performance is a key driver of its stock price. With a market capitalization of $2.337 billion, AMBPs valuation is influenced by its earnings growth, profit margins, and return on equity. Although the current P/E ratio is not available, the forward P/E of 21.83 suggests that investors expect future earnings growth. Key drivers of AMBPs financial performance include revenue growth, EBITDA margins, and cash flow generation.

To evaluate AMBPs potential, its essential to monitor key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth rate, gross margin expansion, and debt-to-equity ratio. Additionally, industry trends, including metal packaging demand, raw material prices, and competitor activity, will impact AMBPs stock performance. Economic drivers like GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rates will also influence the companys valuation.

From a trading perspective, AMBPs stock price has been volatile, with a 52-week high of $4.62 and a low of $2.29. The current price of $3.80 is below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, indicating a potential downtrend. The average true range (ATR) of 0.11 (2.76%) suggests moderate volatility, while the beta of 0.559 indicates that AMBPs stock price is relatively less sensitive to overall market fluctuations.

AMBP Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	2,217m
Sub-Industry	Diversified Metals & Mining
IPO / Inception	2021-08-05

AMBP Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	-11.2%
Fundamental	57.0%
Dividend Rating	72.2%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	2.34%
Analyst Rating	3.14 of 5

AMBP Dividends

Dividend Yield 12m	14.35%
Yield on Cost 5y	7.20%
Annual Growth 5y	10.06%
Payout Consistency	98.8%
Payout Ratio	2.3%

AMBP Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-50.1%
Growth Correlation 12m	48.7%
Growth Correlation 5y	-75.1%
CAGR 5y	-12.13%
CAGR/Max DD 5y	-0.16
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-0.08
Alpha	4.32
Beta	0.720
Volatility	38.33%
Current Volume	689k
Average Volume 20d	788.7k
Stop Loss	3.5 (-5.1%)
Signal	0.85

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5

Net Income (7.00m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 313.9m TTM)

FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.43pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 1.89% (prev -1.45%; Δ 3.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 454.0m > Net Income 7.00m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (3.81b) to EBITDA (597.0m) ratio: 6.37 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.07 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (597.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.0% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 12.25% (prev 10.32%; Δ 1.93pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 96.37% (prev 89.90%; Δ 6.47pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.16 (EBITDA TTM 597.0m / Interest Expense TTM 193.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -1.26

(A) 0.02 = (Total Current Assets 1.57b - Total Current Liabilities 1.48b) / Total Assets 5.49b

(B) -0.16 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -864.0m / Total Assets 5.49b

(D) -1.09 = Book Value of Equity -6.32b / Total Liabilities 5.81b

Total Rating: -1.26 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.96

1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50

2. FCF Yield 4.73% = 2.37

3. FCF Margin 5.45% = 1.36

4. Debt/Equity data missing

5. Debt/Ebitda 6.80 = -2.50

6. ROIC - WACC 5.70% = 7.12

7. RoE data missing

8. Rev. Trend 66.17% = 3.31

9. Rev. CAGR 8.15% = 1.02

10. EPS Trend -28.67% = -0.72

11. EPS CAGR -59.92% = -2.50

What is the price of AMBP shares?

As of August 31, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 3.69 with a total of 688,984 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.12%, over one month by -4.82%, over three months by -3.61% and over the past year by +19.70%.

Is Ardagh Metal Packaging a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Ardagh Metal Packaging is currently (August 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 56.96 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of AMBP is around 3.63 USD . This means that AMBP is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -1.63%.

Is AMBP a buy, sell or hold?

Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AMBP.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 5
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBP price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	4.4	19%
Analysts Target Price	3.7	0.5%
ValueRay Target Price	4.1	9.8%

Last update: 2025-08-21 11:09

AMBP Fundamental Data Overview

Market Cap USD = 2.22b (2.22b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 256.0m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Forward = 20.7469
P/S = 0.4239
P/B = 94.3249
Beta = 0.559
Revenue TTM = 5.23b USD
EBIT TTM = 223.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 597.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.95b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 112.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.06b USD (Calculated: Short Term 112.0m + Long Term 3.95b)
Net Debt = 3.81b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.02b USD (2.22b + Debt 4.06b - CCE 256.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.16 (Ebit TTM 223.0m / Interest Expense TTM 193.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.73% (FCF TTM 285.0m / Enterprise Value 6.02b)
FCF Margin = 5.45% (FCF TTM 285.0m / Revenue TTM 5.23b)
Net Margin = 0.13% (Net Income TTM 7.00m / Revenue TTM 5.23b)
Gross Margin = 12.25% ((Revenue TTM 5.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.95 (set to none) (Enterprise Value 6.02b / Book Value Of Equity -6.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.33% (Interest Expense 54.0m / Debt 4.06b)
Taxrate = 130.0% (set to none) (from yearly Income Tax Expense: 13.0m / 10.0m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 1.57b / Total Current Liabilities 1.48b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.80 (Net Debt 3.81b / EBITDA 597.0m)
Debt / FCF = 14.25 (Debt 4.06b / FCF TTM 285.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -198.2m (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 0.13% (Net Income 7.00m, Total Assets 5.49b )
RoE = unknown (Net Income TTM 7.00m / Total Stockholder Equity -198.2m)
RoCE = 5.95% (Ebit 223.0m / (Equity -198.2m + L.T.Debt 3.95b))
RoIC = 5.70% (Ebit 223.0m / (Assets 5.49b - Current Assets 1.57b))
WACC = unknown (E(2.22b)/V(6.28b) * Re(8.67%)) + (D(4.06b)/V(6.28b) * Rd(1.33%) * (1-Tc(none)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: -10.50 | Cagr: -0.23%
Discount Rate = 8.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.39% ; FCFE base≈291.8m ; Y1≈226.1m ; Y5≈144.0m
Fair Price DCF = 4.04 (DCF Value 2.42b / Shares Outstanding 597.7m; 5y FCF grow -26.81% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 66.17 | Revenue CAGR: 8.15%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: 3.55
EPS Correlation: -28.67 | EPS CAGR: -59.92%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: 142.5

Additional Sources for AMBP Stock

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