AMBP Stock Analysis: Ardagh Metal Packaging | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.600m USD | 12M Return: 30.5% | LU2369833749 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.36M
EPS Trend: 91.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 94.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE: AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based metal beverage can manufacturer operating across Europe, North America, and Brazil. Founded in 1932, the company produces cans for a wide range of beverages-including sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, energy drinks, teas, and flavored alcoholic beverages-and sells primarily on a business-to-business basis to beverage producers. It is a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A. and has been publicly traded since its 2021 IPO.
The company is classified within the GICS Materials sector (Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry), reflecting its upstream position in the metals value chain. Metal beverage cans are typically manufactured from aluminum or steel, and aluminum cans in particular are widely recognized for their high recyclability, which is a relevant feature of the industrys sustainability profile.
- European beverage can demand softens on consumer spending pressure
- Aluminum and energy input costs squeeze packaging margins
- Parent Ardagh Group debt restructuring limits capital allocation flexibility
- Sustainability regulations accelerate shift to aluminum cans over plastic
- Crown Holdings and Ball competition pressures North America pricing
| Net Income: 41.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.74% < 20% (prev 1.89%; Δ -0.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 495.0m > Net Income 41.0m |
| Net Debt (4.16b) to EBITDA (744.0m): 5.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.95% > 18% (prev 12.25%; Δ -1.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 108.4% > 50% (prev 95.32%; Δ 13.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.90b - Total Current Liabilities 1.79b) / Total Assets 5.57b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -1.06b / Total Assets 5.57b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 266.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.53b) |
| D: -0.12 (Book Value of Equity -758.0m / Total Liabilities 6.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.30 = B |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 1.07b/837.0m, Revenue 5.99b/5.23b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 12.25% / 10.95%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 5.99b / 5.23b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 41.0m - CFO 495.0m) / TA 5.57b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.44 with a total of 2,151,005 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.07%, over one month by -8.06%, over three months by -3.97% and over the past year by +30.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.10 (which is 7.7% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMBP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.2 | 16.7% |
P/E Trailing = 87.0
P/E Forward = 14.8368
P/S = 0.434
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 266.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 744.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.21b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 131.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.34b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.16b USD (calculated: Debt 4.34b - CCE 189.0m)
Enterprise Value = 6.76b USD (2.60b + Debt 4.34b - CCE 189.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.27 (Ebit TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m)
EV/FCF = 22.74x (Enterprise Value 6.76b / FCF TTM 297.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.40% (FCF TTM 297.0m / Enterprise Value 6.76b)
FCF Margin = 4.96% (FCF TTM 297.0m / Revenue TTM 5.99b)
Net Margin = 0.68% (Net Income TTM 41.0m / Revenue TTM 5.99b)
Gross Margin = 10.95% ((Revenue TTM 5.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.85% (prev 9.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.21 (Enterprise Value 6.76b / Total Assets 5.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.81% (Interest Expense 209.0m / Debt 4.34b)
Taxrate = 8.89% (4.00m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 242.4m (EBIT 266.0m * (1 - 8.89%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.90b / Total Current Liabilities 1.79b)
Debt / Equity = -5.73 (negative equity) (Debt 4.34b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -758.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.58 (Net Debt 4.16b / EBITDA 744.0m)
Debt / FCF = 13.99 (Net Debt 4.16b / FCF TTM 297.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -620.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.74% (Net Income 41.0m / Total Assets 5.57b)
RoE = -6.61% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 41.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -620.2m)
RoCE = 7.40% (EBIT 266.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -620.2m + L.T.Debt 4.21b))
RoIC = 6.52% (NOPAT 242.4m / Invested Capital 3.72b)
WACC = 5.99% (E(2.60b)/V(6.94b) * Re(8.68%) + D(4.34b)/V(6.94b) * Rd(4.81%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 8.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 52.22 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.98% ; FCFF base≈292.2m ; Y1≈303.7m ; Y5≈344.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.95 (EV 5.32b - Net Debt 4.16b = Equity 1.17b / Shares 597.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.71 | EPS CAGR: 36.20% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 94.23 | Revenue CAGR: 8.45% | SUE: 2.21 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=+1.00% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+0.26% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+29.5% | GrowthRev=+11.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.40% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=9, down=4)