AMBP Stock Analysis: Ardagh Metal Packaging | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.012m USD | 12M Return: 39% | LU2369833749 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.1M
EPS Trend: 91.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 94.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a Luxembourg-based producer of metal beverage cans serving customers across Europe, North America, and Brazil. The company manufactures cans used for a variety of drinks, including sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, teas, and flavored alcoholic beverages, supplying beverage producers worldwide. Founded in 1932, AMBP operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A. and listed on the NYSE following its 2021 IPO. It is classified under the GICS Materials sector within the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry.
As a metal packaging supplier, AMBP operates in an industry characterized by long-standing relationships with major beverage brands and significant capital investment in manufacturing facilities. Aluminum beverage cans are among the most recycled packaging formats globally, supporting the industrys alignment with sustainability-focused brand owners.
- Aluminum cost volatility pressures beverage can margins
- Sustainability regulations accelerate shift from plastic to cans
- Ball Corp and Crown Holdings competition caps pricing power
| Net Income: 41.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.74% < 20% (prev 1.89%; Δ -0.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 495.0m > Net Income 41.0m |
| Net Debt (4.16b) to EBITDA (744.0m): 5.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.95% > 18% (prev 12.25%; Δ -1.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 108.4% > 50% (prev 95.32%; Δ 13.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.90b - Total Current Liabilities 1.79b) / Total Assets 5.57b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -1.06b / Total Assets 5.57b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 266.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.53b) |
| D: -0.12 (Book Value of Equity -758.0m / Total Liabilities 6.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.30 = B |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 1.07b/837.0m, Revenue 5.99b/5.23b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 12.25% / 10.95%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 5.99b / 5.23b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 41.0m - CFO 495.0m) / TA 5.57b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.97 with a total of 1,370,262 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.54%, over one month by +7.34%, over three months by +28.36% and over the past year by +39.02%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.70 (which is 5.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMBP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.2 | 3.6% |
P/E Trailing = 100.8
P/E Forward = 16.8067
P/S = 0.5028
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 266.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 744.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.21b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 131.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.34b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.16b USD (calculated: Debt 4.34b - CCE 189.0m)
Enterprise Value = 7.17b USD (3.01b + Debt 4.34b - CCE 189.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.27 (Ebit TTM 266.0m / Interest Expense TTM 209.0m)
EV/FCF = 24.13x (Enterprise Value 7.17b / FCF TTM 297.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.14% (FCF TTM 297.0m / Enterprise Value 7.17b)
FCF Margin = 4.96% (FCF TTM 297.0m / Revenue TTM 5.99b)
Net Margin = 0.68% (Net Income TTM 41.0m / Revenue TTM 5.99b)
Gross Margin = 10.95% ((Revenue TTM 5.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.85% (prev 9.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 7.17b / Total Assets 5.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.81% (Interest Expense 209.0m / Debt 4.34b)
Taxrate = 8.89% (4.00m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 242.4m (EBIT 266.0m * (1 - 8.89%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.90b / Total Current Liabilities 1.79b)
Debt / Equity = -5.73 (negative equity) (Debt 4.34b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -758.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.58 (Net Debt 4.16b / EBITDA 744.0m)
Debt / FCF = 13.99 (Net Debt 4.16b / FCF TTM 297.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -620.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.74% (Net Income 41.0m / Total Assets 5.57b)
RoE = -6.61% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 41.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -620.2m)
RoCE = 7.40% (EBIT 266.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -620.2m + L.T.Debt 4.21b))
RoIC = 6.52% (NOPAT 242.4m / Invested Capital 3.72b)
WACC = 6.22% (E(3.01b)/V(7.36b) * Re(8.87%) + D(4.34b)/V(7.36b) * Rd(4.81%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 8.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 52.22 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.98% ; FCFF base≈292.2m ; Y1≈303.7m ; Y5≈344.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 1.95 (EV 5.32b - Net Debt 4.16b = Equity 1.17b / Shares 597.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 91.71 | EPS CAGR: 36.20% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 94.23 | Revenue CAGR: 8.45% | SUE: 2.21 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-1.59% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+8.64% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+28.1% | GrowthRev=+12.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+2.68% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+12.3% | GrowthRev=+2.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=9, down=4)