(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Packaging & Containers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.409m USD | Total Return: 12% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 4.67M
EPS Trend: 85.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 94.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (6.2) with thin interest coverage (1.1)
Altman Z'' -1.38 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Fakeout
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a global supplier of sustainable metal beverage cans, maintaining operational footprints in Europe, North America, and Brazil. The company manufactures containers for a broad spectrum of products, including carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and sparkling water. As a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A., it focuses on high-volume production for major beverage producers worldwide.
The metal packaging sector operates on a circular economy model, as aluminum is infinitely recyclable, providing a structural advantage over single-use plastics. This business model typically relies on long-term contracts with beverage brands, where price pass-through mechanisms for raw aluminum help mitigate commodity volatility. Investors may find additional insights into the companys valuation and debt profile on ValueRay.
- Global volume growth in sustainable aluminum beverage cans drives core revenue
- Input cost volatility for aluminum and energy impacts quarterly operating margins
- High debt leverage and interest expense sensitivity influence equity valuation
- Shifts in consumer preference toward specialized sleek can formats improve pricing power
- Regional demand fluctuations in Brazil and Europe affect consolidated earnings performance
| Net Income: 11.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.52% < 20% (prev 2.52%; Δ -1.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 413.0m > Net Income 11.0m |
| Net Debt (4.34b) to EBITDA (696.0m): 6.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.57% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1.04k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 107.2% > 50% (prev 95.49%; Δ 11.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 696.0m / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.67b - Total Current Liabilities 1.58b) / Total Assets 5.42b |
| B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -1.03b / Total Assets 5.42b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 225.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.35b) |
| D: -1.09 (Book Value of Equity -6.69b / Total Liabilities 6.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.38 = CCC |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 959.0m/816.0m, Revenue 5.73b/5.04b) |
| GMI: 1.23 (GM 10.57% / 13.05%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 5.73b / 5.04b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 11.0m - CFO 413.0m) / TA 5.42b) |
| Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.02 with a total of 1,173,235 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.50%,
over one month by +2.03%,
over three months by -15.16% and
over the past year by +12.01%.
Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMBP.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 4.5 | 11.9% |
P/E Forward = 16.129
P/S = 0.4202
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 225.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 696.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.24b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.34b USD (calculated: Debt 4.48b - CCE 142.0m)
Enterprise Value = 6.75b USD (2.41b + Debt 4.48b - CCE 142.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.09 (Ebit TTM 225.0m / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m)
EV/FCF = 32.28x (Enterprise Value 6.75b / FCF TTM 209.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.10% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Enterprise Value 6.75b)
FCF Margin = 3.65% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Revenue TTM 5.73b)
Net Margin = 0.19% (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Revenue TTM 5.73b)
Gross Margin = 10.57% ((Revenue TTM 5.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.51% (prev 8.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 6.75b / Total Assets 5.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.62% (Interest Expense 207.0m / Debt 4.48b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 177.8m (EBIT 225.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.67b / Total Current Liabilities 1.58b)
Debt / Equity = -6.42 (negative equity) (Debt 4.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -698.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.23 (Net Debt 4.34b / EBITDA 696.0m)
Debt / FCF = 20.76 (Net Debt 4.34b / FCF TTM 209.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -512.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.21% (Net Income 11.0m / Total Assets 5.42b)
RoE = 2.11% (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 521.8m)
RoCE = 4.73% (EBIT 225.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 521.8m + L.T.Debt 4.24b))
RoIC = 4.37% (NOPAT 177.8m / Invested Capital 4.07b)
WACC = 5.45% (E(2.41b)/V(6.89b) * Re(8.80%) + D(4.48b)/V(6.89b) * Rd(4.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.63 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈251.4m ; Y1≈220.5m ; Y5≈178.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.86b - Net Debt 4.34b = -1.48b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 85.37 | EPS CAGR: 27.73% | SUE: 1.43 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.46 | Revenue CAGR: 7.13% | SUE: 2.32 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=+1.49% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-11.29% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=+11% | GrowthEPS=+17.9% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-1.54% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+2.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -56%