(AMBP) Ardagh Metal Packaging - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Packaging & Containers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.400m USD | Total Return: 10.9% in 12m

Aluminum Cans, Beverage Packaging, Metal Ends
Total Rating 40
Safety 40
Buy Signal 0.28
Packaging & Containers
Industry Rotation: -3.7
Market Cap: 2.40B
Avg Turnover: 4.33M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility37.4%
VaR 5th Pctl6.13%
VaR vs Median-0.45%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.38
Rel. Str. IBD34.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group14.1
Character TTM
Beta0.831
Beta Downside0.501
Hurst Exponent0.506
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD39.16%
CAGR/Max DD0.41
CAGR/Mean DD1.31
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AMBP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.03, "2021-06": 0.065, "2021-09": 0.14, "2021-12": 0.11, "2022-03": 0.08, "2022-06": 0.11, "2022-09": 0.06, "2022-12": 0.05, "2023-03": 0.01, "2023-06": 0.04, "2023-09": 0.06, "2023-12": 0.01, "2024-03": 0.01, "2024-06": 0.06, "2024-09": 0.08, "2024-12": -0.0082, "2025-03": 0.02, "2025-06": 0.08, "2025-09": 0.08, "2025-12": 0.03, "2026-03": 0.05,
EPS CAGR: -18.96%
EPS Trend: -11.8%
Last SUE: 1.60
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of AMBP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 939, 2021-06: 991, 2021-09: 1038, 2021-12: 1087, 2022-03: 1137, 2022-06: 1303, 2022-09: 1173, 2022-12: 1076, 2023-03: 1131, 2023-06: 1255, 2023-09: 1294, 2023-12: 1132, 2024-03: 1141, 2024-06: 1259, 2024-09: 1313, 2024-12: 1195, 2025-03: 1268, 2025-06: 1455, 2025-09: 1428, 2025-12: 1346, 2026-03: 1504,
Rev. CAGR: 3.90%
Rev. Trend: 68.7%
Last SUE: 2.32
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA (6.2) with thin interest coverage (1.1)

Altman Z'' -1.38 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) is a global supplier of sustainable metal beverage cans, maintaining operational footprints in Europe, North America, and Brazil. The company manufactures containers for a broad spectrum of products, including carbonated soft drinks, beer, energy drinks, and sparkling water. As a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A., it focuses on high-volume production for major beverage producers worldwide.

The metal packaging sector operates on a circular economy model, as aluminum is infinitely recyclable, providing a structural advantage over single-use plastics. This business model typically relies on long-term contracts with beverage brands, where price pass-through mechanisms for raw aluminum help mitigate commodity volatility. Investors may find additional insights into the companys valuation and debt profile on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Global volume growth in sustainable aluminum beverage cans drives core revenue
  • Input cost volatility for aluminum and energy impacts quarterly operating margins
  • High debt leverage and interest expense sensitivity influence equity valuation
  • Shifts in consumer preference toward specialized sleek can formats improve pricing power
  • Regional demand fluctuations in Brazil and Europe affect consolidated earnings performance
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 11.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.12 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 1.52% < 20% (prev 2.52%; Δ -1.00% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 413.0m > Net Income 11.0m
Net Debt (4.34b) to EBITDA (696.0m): 6.23 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (597.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2%
Gross Margin: 10.57% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1.04k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 107.2% > 50% (prev 95.49%; Δ 11.70% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 696.0m / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m)
Altman Z'' -1.38
A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.67b - Total Current Liabilities 1.58b) / Total Assets 5.42b
B: -0.19 (Retained Earnings -1.03b / Total Assets 5.42b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 225.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.35b)
D: -1.09 (Book Value of Equity -6.69b / Total Liabilities 6.11b)
Altman-Z'' Score: -1.38 = CCC
Beneish M -2.81
DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 959.0m/816.0m, Revenue 5.73b/5.04b)
GMI: 1.23 (GM 10.57% / 13.05%)
AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.26)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 5.73b / 5.04b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 11.0m - CFO 413.0m) / TA 5.42b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of AMBP shares? As of May 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.01 with a total of 1,171,754 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.01%, over one month by -2.43%, over three months by -14.13% and over the past year by +10.87%.
Is AMBP a buy, sell or hold? Ardagh Metal Packaging has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefor, it is recommend to hold AMBP.
  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMBP price?
Analysts Target Price 4.5 12.2%
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 May 2026
P/E Forward = 16.0
P/S = 0.4186
P/B = 94.3249
Revenue TTM = 5.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 225.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 696.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.24b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 241.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.34b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.74b USD (2.40b + Debt 4.48b - CCE 142.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.09 (Ebit TTM 225.0m / Interest Expense TTM 207.0m)
EV/FCF = 32.24x (Enterprise Value 6.74b / FCF TTM 209.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.10% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Enterprise Value 6.74b)
FCF Margin = 3.65% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Revenue TTM 5.73b)
Net Margin = 0.19% (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Revenue TTM 5.73b)
Gross Margin = 10.57% ((Revenue TTM 5.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.51% (prev 8.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 6.74b / Total Assets 5.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.23% (Interest Expense 55.0m / Debt 4.48b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 177.8m (EBIT 225.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.67b / Total Current Liabilities 1.58b)
 Debt / Equity = -6.42 (negative equity) (Debt 4.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -698.0m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 6.23 (Net Debt 4.34b / EBITDA 696.0m)
Debt / FCF = 20.76 (Net Debt 4.34b / FCF TTM 209.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -512.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.21% (Net Income 11.0m / Total Assets 5.42b)
 RoE = -2.15% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 11.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -512.2m)
 RoCE = 6.04% (EBIT 225.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -512.2m + L.T.Debt 4.24b))
RoIC = 4.53% (NOPAT 177.8m / Invested Capital 3.93b)
WACC = 3.74% (E(2.40b)/V(6.88b) * Re(8.91%) + D(4.48b)/V(6.88b) * Rd(1.23%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.63 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈251.4m ; Y1≈165.1m ; Y5≈75.5m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.40b - Net Debt 4.34b = -1.94b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: -11.80 | EPS CAGR: -18.96% | SUE: 1.60 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 68.66 | Revenue CAGR: 3.90% | SUE: 2.32 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=+1.49% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-11.29% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=-0.36% | Revisions=+11% | GrowthEPS=+17.9% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-1.54% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+2.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -56%