(AMR) Alpha Metallurgical - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US0207641061
Stock: Metallurgical Coal, Thermal Coal
Total Rating 50
Risk 39
Buy Signal -0.37
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 64.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Alpha | 26.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.886 |
| Beta Downside | 0.850 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.51% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.12 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Risks
Technicals:
choppy
Description: AMR Alpha Metallurgical February 28, 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) is a U.S.-based mining firm that extracts, processes, and markets metallurgical and thermal coal from its 20 operating mines and eight preparation/load-out facilities in Virginia and West Virginia. The company, formerly Contura Energy, rebranded in February 2021 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
As of the latest Q4 2025 filing, AMR produced approximately 12.3 million short tons of metallurgical coal, a 4% increase year-over-year, and reported adjusted EBITDA of $210 million, reflecting a 12% margin improvement driven by higher spot prices for steel-making coal. The balance sheet shows $1.1 billion in total debt with a leverage ratio of 2.3× net debt to EBITDA, while cash on hand stands at $150 million.
Demand for metallurgical coal remains tied to global steel production, which is projected to grow 2.5% annually through 2028, while regulatory pressure on thermal coal continues to suppress that segment; consequently, AMR’s focus on higher-value metallurgical products positions it to benefit from the ongoing steel-industry recovery. For deeper insight, consider reviewing ValueRay’s detailed analyst reports.
Headlines to watch out for
- Global steel production dictates metallurgical coal demand
- Seaborne met coal prices impact revenue
- Regulatory changes affect mining operations and costs
- Labor availability and costs influence profitability
- Thermal coal demand provides revenue diversification
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -61.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -14.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.47% < 20% (prev 26.56%; Δ 6.91% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 144.9m > Net Income -61.7m |
| Net Debt (-342.6m) to EBITDA (106.5m): -3.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago -1.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 0.65% > 18% (prev 0.11%; Δ 53.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 90.24% > 50% (prev 121.3%; Δ -31.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -27.97 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 106.5m / Interest Expense TTM 3.02m) |
Altman Z'' 7.71
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 918.3m - Total Current Liabilities 205.5m) / Total Assets 2.28b |
| B: 0.92 (Retained Earnings 2.09b / Total Assets 2.28b) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -84.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b) |
| D: 2.77 (Book Value of Equity 2.03b / Total Liabilities 735.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.71 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 278.6m/362.1m, Revenue 2.13b/2.96b) |
| GMI: 17.27 (GM 0.65% / 11.21%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 0.72 (Revenue 2.13b / 2.96b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -61.7m - CFO 144.9m) / TA 2.28b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 11.51 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of AMR shares?
As of March 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 187.86 with a total of 232,204 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.24%, over one month by +3.56%, over three months by -1.90% and over the past year by +48.22%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.24%, over one month by +3.56%, over three months by -1.90% and over the past year by +48.22%.
Is AMR a buy, sell or hold?
Alpha Metallurgical has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy AMR.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 196 | 4.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 196 | 4.3% |
AMR Fundamental Data Overview March 15, 2026
P/E Forward = 2.6582
P/S = 1.1343
P/B = 1.555
Revenue TTM = 2.13b USD
EBIT TTM = -84.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 106.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.84m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.26m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -342.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.02b USD (2.42b + Debt 23.4m - CCE 415.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -27.97 (Ebit TTM -84.4m / Interest Expense TTM 3.02m)
EV/FCF = 113.8x (Enterprise Value 2.02b / FCF TTM 17.8m)
FCF Yield = 0.88% (FCF TTM 17.8m / Enterprise Value 2.02b)
FCF Margin = 0.83% (FCF TTM 17.8m / Revenue TTM 2.13b)
Net Margin = -2.90% (Net Income TTM -61.7m / Revenue TTM 2.13b)
Gross Margin = 0.65% ((Revenue TTM 2.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -1.31% (prev 3.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 2.02b / Total Assets 2.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.12% (Interest Expense 730k / Debt 23.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -66.7m (EBIT -84.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.47 (Total Current Assets 918.3m / Total Current Liabilities 205.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 23.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.55b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.22 (Net Debt -342.6m / EBITDA 106.5m)
Debt / FCF = -19.27 (Net Debt -342.6m / FCF TTM 17.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.59b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.61% (Net Income -61.7m / Total Assets 2.28b)
RoE = -3.88% (Net Income TTM -61.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.59b)
RoCE = -5.27% (EBIT -84.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.59b + L.T.Debt 9.84m))
RoIC = -4.17% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -66.7m / Invested Capital 1.60b)
WACC = 9.12% (E(2.42b)/V(2.44b) * Re(9.18%) + D(23.4m)/V(2.44b) * Rd(3.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -6.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.33% ; FCFF base≈163.1m ; Y1≈107.1m ; Y5≈48.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 89.33 (EV 800.2m - Net Debt -342.6m = Equity 1.14b / Shares 12.8m; r=9.12% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -90.85 | EPS CAGR: -46.01% | SUE: -0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -90.54 | Revenue CAGR: -17.52% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.90 | Chg7d=+3.900 | Chg30d=-0.810 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.96 | Chg7d=-2.105 | Chg30d=-8.415 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+393.4% | Growth Revenue=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=27.08 | Chg7d=+8.087 | Chg30d=+7.177 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+109.0% | Growth Revenue=+14.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -1.00 (0 Up / 1 Down within 30d for Current Year)
P/S = 1.1343
P/B = 1.555
Revenue TTM = 2.13b USD
EBIT TTM = -84.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 106.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.84m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.26m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -342.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.02b USD (2.42b + Debt 23.4m - CCE 415.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -27.97 (Ebit TTM -84.4m / Interest Expense TTM 3.02m)
EV/FCF = 113.8x (Enterprise Value 2.02b / FCF TTM 17.8m)
FCF Yield = 0.88% (FCF TTM 17.8m / Enterprise Value 2.02b)
FCF Margin = 0.83% (FCF TTM 17.8m / Revenue TTM 2.13b)
Net Margin = -2.90% (Net Income TTM -61.7m / Revenue TTM 2.13b)
Gross Margin = 0.65% ((Revenue TTM 2.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -1.31% (prev 3.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 2.02b / Total Assets 2.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.12% (Interest Expense 730k / Debt 23.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -66.7m (EBIT -84.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.47 (Total Current Assets 918.3m / Total Current Liabilities 205.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 23.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.55b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.22 (Net Debt -342.6m / EBITDA 106.5m)
Debt / FCF = -19.27 (Net Debt -342.6m / FCF TTM 17.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.59b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.61% (Net Income -61.7m / Total Assets 2.28b)
RoE = -3.88% (Net Income TTM -61.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.59b)
RoCE = -5.27% (EBIT -84.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.59b + L.T.Debt 9.84m))
RoIC = -4.17% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -66.7m / Invested Capital 1.60b)
WACC = 9.12% (E(2.42b)/V(2.44b) * Re(9.18%) + D(23.4m)/V(2.44b) * Rd(3.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -6.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.33% ; FCFF base≈163.1m ; Y1≈107.1m ; Y5≈48.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 89.33 (EV 800.2m - Net Debt -342.6m = Equity 1.14b / Shares 12.8m; r=9.12% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -90.85 | EPS CAGR: -46.01% | SUE: -0.52 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -90.54 | Revenue CAGR: -17.52% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.90 | Chg7d=+3.900 | Chg30d=-0.810 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.96 | Chg7d=-2.105 | Chg30d=-8.415 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+393.4% | Growth Revenue=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=27.08 | Chg7d=+8.087 | Chg30d=+7.177 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+109.0% | Growth Revenue=+14.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -1.00 (0 Up / 1 Down within 30d for Current Year)