AMRC Stock Analysis: Ameresco | NYSE

Engineering & Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.432m USD | 12M Return: 53.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Solar Systems, Energy Consulting
Total Rating 34
Safety 60
Buy Signal -0.84
Engineering & Construction
Industry Rotation: -9.7
Market Cap: 1.43B
Avg Turnover: 15.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility76.3%
VaR 5th Pctl12.4%
VaR vs Median-1.47%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.84
Rel. Str. IBD28.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group27.2
Character TTM
Beta2.015
Beta Downside2.242
Hurst Exponent0.470
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD86.26%
CAGR/Max DD-0.27
CAGR/Mean DD-0.41
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of AMRC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.34, "2021-09": 0.41, "2021-12": 0.5, "2022-03": 0.36, "2022-06": 0.62, "2022-09": 0.54, "2022-12": 0.35, "2023-03": 0.03, "2023-06": 0.15, "2023-09": 0.4, "2023-12": 0.69, "2024-03": -0.1, "2024-06": 0.1, "2024-09": 0.32, "2024-12": 0.88, "2025-03": -0.11, "2025-06": 0.27, "2025-09": 0.35, "2025-12": 0.39, "2026-03": -0.33,
EPS CAGR: -4.55%
EPS Trend: -21.0%
Last SUE: -0.28
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of AMRC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 273.92, 2021-09: 273.682, 2021-12: 415.893, 2022-03: 474.002, 2022-06: 577.397, 2022-09: 441.296, 2022-12: 331.727, 2023-03: 271.042, 2023-06: 327.074, 2023-09: 335.149, 2023-12: 441.368, 2024-03: 298.406, 2024-06: 437.982, 2024-09: 500.873, 2024-12: 532.667, 2025-03: 352.829, 2025-06: 472.284, 2025-09: 525.987, 2025-12: 581.026, 2026-03: 401.46,
Rev. CAGR: 18.42%
Rev. Trend: 96.1%
Last SUE: 1.54
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Choppy
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -0.8% 16
Feb -4.5% 18
Mar +9.2% 18
Apr -6.9% 30
May +7.8% 35
Jun +4.0% 12
Jul +10.4% 30
Aug +5.8% 20
Sep -5.8% 9
Oct -3.9% 9
Nov +3.4% 21
Dec -10.9% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AMRC Ameresco

Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC) is a U.S.-based energy solutions provider operating in the United States, Canada, and Europe, with its headquarters in Framingham, Massachusetts. The company delivers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy services to a diverse customer base that includes federal, state, and local governments, utilities, data centers, educational and healthcare institutions, housing authorities, and commercial and industrial clients. It reports through five segments: North America Regions, U.S. Federal, Renewable Fuels, Europe, and All Other.

The company designs, engineers, and installs customized projects aimed at reducing customer energy and operations & maintenance (O&M) costs, typically targeting building systems such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting. It also develops, builds, owns, and operates small-scale renewable energy plants-solar PV in particular-that produce electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, heat, or cooling, and sells the output to customers, while providing ongoing O&M and enterprise energy management and consulting services.

Ameresco sits within the Construction & Engineering sub-industry (GICS Industrials) but operates with a hybrid business model common to energy services companies (ESCOs), which frequently finance projects through long-term contracts such as Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs) that tie repayment to the savings delivered. The companys Renewable Fuels segment and PV solar offerings place it within the broader clean energy transition, serving public-sector and institutional customers that increasingly pursue decarbonization and resilience goals.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • U.S. Federal contracts anchor recurring revenue backlog
  • Inflation Reduction Act tax credits boost project economics
  • Data center power demand accelerates clean energy infrastructure orders
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.5
Net Income: 31.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.52 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 25.75% < 20% (prev 25.15%; Δ 0.60% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.00 > 3% & CFO -16.7m > Net Income 31.5m
Net Debt (2.01b) to EBITDA (234.6m): 8.56 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.49 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.9m) vs 12m ago 0.65% < -2%
Gross Margin: 15.58% > 18% (prev 14.31%; Δ 1.27% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 44.96% > 50% (prev 43.75%; Δ 1.21% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 125.0m / Interest Expense TTM 93.2m)
Altman Z'' 1.72
A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.55b - Total Current Liabilities 1.04b) / Total Assets 4.64b
B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 678.4m / Total Assets 4.64b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 125.0m / Avg Total Assets 4.41b)
D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 1.11b / Total Liabilities 3.53b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.72 = BBB
Beneish M -2.41
DSRI: 0.25 (Receivables 249.2m/931.8m, Revenue 1.98b/1.82b)
GMI: 0.92 (GM 14.31% / 15.58%)
AQI: 3.11 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.21)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 1.98b / 1.82b)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 31.5m - CFO -16.7m) / TA 4.64b)
Beneish M = -2.41 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of AMRC shares?

As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.24 with a total of 352,185 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.55%, over one month by -9.08%, over three months by -0.08% and over the past year by +53.16%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.70 (which is 10.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is AMRC a buy, sell or hold?

Ameresco has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.69. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AMRC.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the AMRC price?
Analysts Target Price 42.9 70%
Ameresco (AMRC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.43b (1.43b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 46.6379
P/E Forward = 23.5294
P/S = 0.7231
P/B = 1.2634
P/EG = 2.138
Revenue TTM = 1.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 125.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 234.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 171.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 63.2m
Net Debt = 2.01b USD (calculated: Debt 2.11b - CCE 104.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.44b USD (1.43b + Debt 2.11b - CCE 104.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.34 (Ebit TTM 125.0m / Interest Expense TTM 93.2m)
EV/FCF = -13.71x (Enterprise Value 3.44b / FCF TTM -251.0m)
FCF Yield = -7.29% (FCF TTM -251.0m / Enterprise Value 3.44b)
FCF Margin = -12.67% (FCF TTM -251.0m / Revenue TTM 1.98b)
Net Margin = 1.59% (Net Income TTM 31.5m / Revenue TTM 1.98b)
Gross Margin = 15.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.06% (prev 16.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 3.44b / Total Assets 4.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.41% (Interest Expense 93.2m / Debt 2.11b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 98.8m (EBIT 125.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.49 (Total Current Assets 1.55b / Total Current Liabilities 1.04b)
Debt / Equity = 1.90 (Debt 2.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.56 (Net Debt 2.01b / EBITDA 234.6m)
 Debt / FCF = -8.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.01b / FCF TTM -251.0m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.71% (Net Income 31.5m / Total Assets 4.64b)
RoE = 2.94% (Net Income TTM 31.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.07b)
RoCE = 4.32% (EBIT 125.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.07b + L.T.Debt 1.82b))
RoIC = 2.69% (NOPAT 98.8m / Invested Capital 3.67b)
WACC = 7.36% (E(1.43b)/V(3.55b) * Re(13.07%) + D(2.11b)/V(3.55b) * Rd(4.41%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 20.0 | Cagr: -0.32%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -251.0m)
 EPS Correlation: -20.98 | EPS CAGR: -4.55% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.08 | Revenue CAGR: 18.42% | SUE: 1.54 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=-1.08% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=-0.82% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-1.14% | Revisions=-42% | GrowthEPS=+21.0% | GrowthRev=+8.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.64 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=-36% | GrowthEPS=+50.2% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43% (up=7, down=20)