AOS Stock Analysis: Smith AO | NYSE
Specialty Industrial Machinery | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.607m USD | 12M Return: -12.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 110M
EPS Trend: 26.1%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 2.9%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
A. O. Smith Corporation is a global manufacturer of water heating and water treatment products, serving both residential and commercial customers across North America, China, Europe, and India. Its product portfolio spans gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, expansion tanks, and a range of water treatment solutions including water softeners, filtration systems, and reverse osmosis products, marketed under brands such as A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, and Aquasana. The company sells through wholesale plumbing distributors, retail and home center chains, manufacturer representatives, e-commerce platforms, and an Amazon presence for its branded water treatment products.
Founded in 1874 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, A. O. Smith is classified within the Industrials sector and the Building Products sub-industry, with a mid-cap market capitalization of approximately $8.3 billion. The water heater industry is largely driven by replacement demand in mature markets and by new construction and rising penetration in emerging markets, which has supported A. O. Smiths long-established international footprint, particularly in China where it holds a leading market position in the water heater category.
- China property slump weighs on water heater demand and margins
- Heat pump water heater adoption accelerates with IRA tax credits
- Steel and raw material costs pressure North America margins
| Net Income: 527.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.86% < 20% (prev 14.20%; Δ -1.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 707.5m > Net Income 527.6m |
| Net Debt (493.3m) to EBITDA (794.7m): 0.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.56 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (139.2m) vs 12m ago -3.63% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.77% > 18% (prev 38.02%; Δ 0.74% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 110.2% > 50% (prev 116.4%; Δ -6.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 39.91 > 6 (EBIT TTM 706.4m / Interest Expense TTM 17.7m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 1.37b - Total Current Liabilities 878.1m) / Total Assets 3.65b |
| B: 1.10 (Retained Earnings 4.02b / Total Assets 3.65b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 706.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.46b) |
| D: 1.06 (Book Value of Equity 1.88b / Total Liabilities 1.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.96 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 634.1m/641.5m, Revenue 3.81b/3.80b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 38.02% / 38.77%) |
| AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.36) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.81b / 3.80b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 527.6m - CFO 707.5m) / TA 3.65b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 60.44 with a total of 1,241,902 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.64%, over one month by +5.63%, over three months by -7.79% and over the past year by -12.43%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.20 (which is 3.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Smith AO has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.46. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AOS.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 70.5 | 16.6% |
P/E Trailing = 16.6533
P/E Forward = 16.7224
P/S = 2.258
P/B = 4.6033
P/EG = 1.6462
Revenue TTM = 3.81b USD
EBIT TTM = 706.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 794.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 574.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 41.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 697.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 40.7m
Net Debt = 493.3m USD (calculated: Debt 697.2m - CCE 203.9m)
Enterprise Value = 9.10b USD (8.61b + Debt 697.2m - CCE 203.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 39.91 (Ebit TTM 706.4m / Interest Expense TTM 17.7m)
EV/FCF = 14.06x (Enterprise Value 9.10b / FCF TTM 647.5m)
FCF Yield = 7.11% (FCF TTM 647.5m / Enterprise Value 9.10b)
FCF Margin = 16.99% (FCF TTM 647.5m / Revenue TTM 3.81b)
Net Margin = 13.84% (Net Income TTM 527.6m / Revenue TTM 3.81b)
Gross Margin = 38.77% ((Revenue TTM 3.81b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.67% (prev 38.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.49 (Enterprise Value 9.10b / Total Assets 3.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.54% (Interest Expense 17.7m / Debt 697.2m)
Taxrate = 23.39% (161.1m / 688.7m)
NOPAT = 541.2m (EBIT 706.4m * (1 - 23.39%))
Current Ratio = 1.56 (Total Current Assets 1.37b / Total Current Liabilities 878.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 697.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.62 (Net Debt 493.3m / EBITDA 794.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.76 (Net Debt 493.3m / FCF TTM 647.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.25% (Net Income 527.6m / Total Assets 3.65b)
RoE = 28.42% (Net Income TTM 527.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.86b)
RoCE = 29.06% (EBIT 706.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.86b + L.T.Debt 574.2m))
RoIC = 20.63% (NOPAT 541.2m / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 7.70% (E(8.61b)/V(9.30b) * Re(8.17%) + D(697.2m)/V(9.30b) * Rd(2.54%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -3.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈551.1m ; Y1≈631.8m ; Y5≈929.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 120.6 (EV 14.0b - Net Debt 493.3m = Equity 13.5b / Shares 112.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 26.05 | EPS CAGR: 0.91% | SUE: -2.36 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 2.87 | Revenue CAGR: 0.04% | SUE: -1.40 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.00 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.77 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-2.0% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.18 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=4, down=3)