AOS Stock Analysis: Smith AO | NYSE
Specialty Industrial Machinery | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.671m USD | 12M Return: 0.8% | US8318652091 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 108M
EPS Trend: -53.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -66.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) is a global manufacturer of water heating, water treatment, and related products serving both residential and commercial customers across North America, China, Europe, and India. Its product portfolio includes gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, expansion tanks, and water treatment solutions such as water softeners and filtration systems, marketed under multiple brands including A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, and Aquasana. The company distributes through independent wholesale plumbing distributors, retail and home center chains, manufacturer representatives, dealer networks, and direct e-commerce channels including Amazon.
Founded in 1874 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, A. O. Smith operates within the GICS Industrials sector, classified under the Building Products sub-industry, reflecting its role in supplying core plumbing and infrastructure components for new construction, replacement, and renovation markets. Its business model spans both cyclical building-related demand and the more stable replacement-driven water heater and water treatment segments.
- China water heater sales decline on property market weakness
- Heat pump demand grows on energy efficiency regulations
- North America residential volumes track housing market trends
| Net Income: 494.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.44% < 20% (prev 12.10%; Δ 2.33% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 612.5m > Net Income 494.6m |
| Net Debt (522.0m) to EBITDA (760.1m): 0.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (136.1m) vs 12m ago -3.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.62% > 18% (prev 38.51%; Δ 0.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 111.4% > 50% (prev 120.8%; Δ -9.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 26.30 > 6 (EBIT TTM 665.3m / Interest Expense TTM 25.3m) |
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 1.41b - Total Current Liabilities 862.0m) / Total Assets 3.65b |
| B: 1.14 (Retained Earnings 4.17b / Total Assets 3.65b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 665.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.41b) |
| D: 1.00 (Book Value of Equity 1.82b / Total Liabilities 1.83b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.06 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 612.9m/589.0m, Revenue 3.80b/3.83b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 38.51% / 38.62%) |
| AQI: 1.16 (AQ_t 0.43 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 3.80b / 3.83b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 494.6m - CFO 612.5m) / TA 3.65b) |
| Beneish M = -2.90 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.20 with a total of 1,931,236 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.34%, over one month by +16.34%, over three months by +5.10% and over the past year by +0.79%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 61.70 (which is 5.4% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Smith AO has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.15. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AOS.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 66.5 | 2% |
P/E Trailing = 18.0307
P/E Forward = 16.7785
P/S = 2.2801
P/B = 4.7561
P/EG = 1.7392
Revenue TTM = 3.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 665.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 760.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 632.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 41.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 756.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 41.7m
Net Debt = 522.0m USD (calculated: Debt 756.5m - CCE 234.5m)
Enterprise Value = 9.19b USD (8.67b + Debt 756.5m - CCE 234.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.30 (Ebit TTM 665.3m / Interest Expense TTM 25.3m)
EV/FCF = 16.37x (Enterprise Value 9.19b / FCF TTM 561.7m)
FCF Yield = 6.11% (FCF TTM 561.7m / Enterprise Value 9.19b)
FCF Margin = 14.77% (FCF TTM 561.7m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Net Margin = 13.01% (Net Income TTM 494.6m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Gross Margin = 38.62% ((Revenue TTM 3.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.78% (prev 38.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.52 (Enterprise Value 9.19b / Total Assets 3.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.34% (Interest Expense 25.3m / Debt 756.5m)
Taxrate = 22.72% (145.4m / 640.0m)
NOPAT = 514.2m (EBIT 665.3m * (1 - 22.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.64 (Total Current Assets 1.41b / Total Current Liabilities 862.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.41 (Debt 756.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.69 (Net Debt 522.0m / EBITDA 760.1m)
Debt / FCF = 0.93 (Net Debt 522.0m / FCF TTM 561.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.85b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.49% (Net Income 494.6m / Total Assets 3.65b)
RoE = 26.73% (Net Income TTM 494.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.85b)
RoCE = 26.80% (EBIT 665.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.85b + L.T.Debt 632.1m))
RoIC = 19.45% (NOPAT 514.2m / Invested Capital 2.64b)
WACC = 6.71% (E(8.67b)/V(9.43b) * Re(7.07%) + D(756.5m)/V(9.43b) * Rd(3.34%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.94 | Cagr: -3.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.20% ; FCFF base≈565.7m ; Y1≈559.7m ; Y5≈575.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 77.98 (EV 8.98b - Net Debt 522.0m = Equity 8.46b / Shares 108.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -1.77% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -53.82 | EPS CAGR: -1.29% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -66.50 | Revenue CAGR: -0.80% | SUE: -0.97 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=-10.00% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=-7.03% | Revisions=-75% | GrowthEPS=-9.7% | GrowthRev=-12.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.78 | Chg30d=-7.48% | Revisions=-77% | GrowthEPS=+8.7% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -88% (up=0, down=22)