(AOS) Smith AO - Overview
Stock: Water Heaters, Boilers, Heat Pumps, Water Treatment, Filtration
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 24.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Alpha | 13.70 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.579 |
| Beta Downside | 0.431 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.30% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.23 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: AOS Smith AO January 03, 2026
A. O. Smith Corp. (NYSE:AOS) designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of residential and commercial water-heating and treatment solutions-including gas/electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, solar heaters, expansion tanks, and filtration systems-across North America, China, Europe, and India. Its brands (A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, Water-Right, Master Water, Atlantic Filter, Water Tec, and Aquasana) reach end-users through wholesale plumbing distributors, hardware/home-center chains, manufacturer reps, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce channels.
Key operating metrics from FY 2023 show revenue of roughly $3.5 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14 %, and a free-cash-flow conversion of 70 % of EBITDA, underscoring strong cash generation. The segment’s growth is closely tied to housing-starts and renovation spending, which have risen 6 % YoY in the U.S., while tightening energy-efficiency standards (e.g., DOE’s 2025 heat-pump water-heater rule) are accelerating demand for high-efficiency heat-pump and tankless units. Internationally, China’s commercial-boiler market is expanding at a 9 % annual rate, providing a secular tailwind for the company’s Lochinvar brand.
For a deeper quantitative look at AOS’s valuation metrics, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.5
| Net Income: 546.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.20% < 20% (prev 12.98%; Δ -1.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 616.8m > Net Income 546.2m |
| Net Debt (54.7m) to EBITDA (792.2m): 0.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (139.9m) vs 12m ago -4.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.83% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 3845 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 120.0% > 50% (prev 117.8%; Δ 2.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 41.90 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 792.2m / Interest Expense TTM 13.5m) |
Altman Z'' 7.63
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.29b - Total Current Liabilities 862.5m) / Total Assets 3.14b |
| B: 1.23 (Retained Earnings 3.88b / Total Assets 3.14b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 565.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.19b) |
| D: 1.45 (Book Value of Equity 1.86b / Total Liabilities 1.28b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.63 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.99
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 582.3m/541.4m, Revenue 3.83b/3.82b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 38.83% / 38.10%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.83b / 3.82b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 546.2m - CFO 616.8m) / TA 3.14b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AOS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.36%, over one month by +13.53%, over three months by +22.54% and over the past year by +24.09%.
Is AOS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AOS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 79.4 | -1.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 79.4 | -1.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 86.2 | 7.5% |
AOS Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 19.3798
P/S = 2.8895
P/B = 5.9187
P/EG = 1.9382
Revenue TTM = 3.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 565.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 792.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 112.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 42.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 229.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 54.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.12b USD (11.07b + Debt 229.2m - CCE 174.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 41.90 (Ebit TTM 565.6m / Interest Expense TTM 13.5m)
EV/FCF = 20.37x (Enterprise Value 11.12b / FCF TTM 546.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.91% (FCF TTM 546.0m / Enterprise Value 11.12b)
FCF Margin = 14.26% (FCF TTM 546.0m / Revenue TTM 3.83b)
Net Margin = 14.26% (Net Income TTM 546.2m / Revenue TTM 3.83b)
Gross Margin = 38.83% ((Revenue TTM 3.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.40% (prev 38.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.54 (Enterprise Value 11.12b / Total Assets 3.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.05% (Interest Expense 2.40m / Debt 229.2m)
Taxrate = 21.92% (35.2m / 160.6m)
NOPAT = 441.6m (EBIT 565.6m * (1 - 21.92%))
Current Ratio = 1.50 (Total Current Assets 1.29b / Total Current Liabilities 862.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 229.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.07 (Net Debt 54.7m / EBITDA 792.2m)
Debt / FCF = 0.10 (Net Debt 54.7m / FCF TTM 546.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.85b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.11% (Net Income 546.2m / Total Assets 3.14b)
RoE = 29.51% (Net Income TTM 546.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.85b)
RoCE = 28.80% (EBIT 565.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.85b + L.T.Debt 112.7m))
RoIC = 21.02% (NOPAT 441.6m / Invested Capital 2.10b)
WACC = 7.90% (E(11.07b)/V(11.30b) * Re(8.05%) + D(229.2m)/V(11.30b) * Rd(1.05%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.53% ; FCFF base≈517.1m ; Y1≈558.5m ; Y5≈689.8m
Fair Price DCF = 107.1 (EV 12.19b - Net Debt 54.7m = Equity 12.14b / Shares 113.4m; r=7.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.05% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 50.87 | EPS CAGR: 4.25% | SUE: 1.43 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 0.86 | Revenue CAGR: -1.82% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=-0.033 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.03 | Chg30d=-0.098 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+4.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.36 | Chg30d=-0.073 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+8.2% | Growth Revenue=+3.7%