AOS Stock Analysis: Smith AO | NYSE
Specialty Industrial Machinery | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.521m USD | 12M Return: -17.3% | US8318652091 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 82.7M
EPS Trend: -25.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -41.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
A. O. Smith Corporation (NYSE: AOS) is a global manufacturer of water heating, water treatment, and related products serving both residential and commercial customers across North America, China, Europe, and India. Its product portfolio includes gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, expansion tanks, and water treatment solutions such as water softeners and filtration systems, marketed under multiple brands including A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, and Aquasana. The company distributes through independent wholesale plumbing distributors, retail and home center chains, manufacturer representatives, dealer networks, and direct e-commerce channels including Amazon.
Founded in 1874 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, A. O. Smith operates within the GICS Industrials sector, classified under the Building Products sub-industry, reflecting its role in supplying core plumbing and infrastructure components for new construction, replacement, and renovation markets. Its business model spans both cyclical building-related demand and the more stable replacement-driven water heater and water treatment segments.
- China water heater sales decline on property market weakness
- Heat pump demand grows on energy efficiency regulations
- North America residential volumes track housing market trends
| Net Income: 500.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.60% < 20% (prev 14.39%; Δ -0.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 692.3m > Net Income 500.3m |
| Net Debt (534.6m) to EBITDA (758.7m): 0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (138.5m) vs 12m ago -3.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.59% > 18% (prev 38.20%; Δ 0.39% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 110.4% > 50% (prev 116.7%; Δ -6.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 31.43 > 6 (EBIT TTM 666.3m / Interest Expense TTM 21.2m) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.39b - Total Current Liabilities 871.7m) / Total Assets 3.64b |
| B: 1.12 (Retained Earnings 4.09b / Total Assets 3.64b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 666.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.45b) |
| D: 1.02 (Book Value of Equity 1.84b / Total Liabilities 1.80b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.97 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 669.8m/640.3m, Revenue 3.80b/3.79b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 38.20% / 38.59%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.36) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.80b / 3.79b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 500.3m - CFO 692.3m) / TA 3.64b) |
| Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 56.38 with a total of 2,264,651 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.65%, over one month by -2.51%, over three months by -3.89% and over the past year by -17.34%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 53.80 (which is 4.6% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Smith AO has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.46. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AOS.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 69.9 | 24% |
P/E Trailing = 15.415
P/E Forward = 13.8122
P/S = 1.9767
P/B = 4.2605
P/EG = 1.3656
Revenue TTM = 3.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 666.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 758.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 598.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 715.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 39.2m
Net Debt = 534.6m USD (calculated: Debt 715.9m - CCE 181.3m)
Enterprise Value = 8.06b USD (7.52b + Debt 715.9m - CCE 181.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 31.43 (Ebit TTM 666.3m / Interest Expense TTM 21.2m)
EV/FCF = 12.60x (Enterprise Value 8.06b / FCF TTM 639.4m)
FCF Yield = 7.94% (FCF TTM 639.4m / Enterprise Value 8.06b)
FCF Margin = 16.80% (FCF TTM 639.4m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Net Margin = 13.15% (Net Income TTM 500.3m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Gross Margin = 38.59% ((Revenue TTM 3.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.61% (prev 38.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.21 (Enterprise Value 8.06b / Total Assets 3.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 21.2m / Debt 715.9m)
Taxrate = 22.45% (144.8m / 645.1m)
NOPAT = 516.7m (EBIT 666.3m * (1 - 22.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.59 (Total Current Assets 1.39b / Total Current Liabilities 871.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 715.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.70 (Net Debt 534.6m / EBITDA 758.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.84 (Net Debt 534.6m / FCF TTM 639.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.52% (Net Income 500.3m / Total Assets 3.64b)
RoE = 26.96% (Net Income TTM 500.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.86b)
RoCE = 27.16% (EBIT 666.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.86b + L.T.Debt 598.0m))
RoIC = 19.64% (NOPAT 516.7m / Invested Capital 2.63b)
WACC = 7.17% (E(7.52b)/V(8.24b) * Re(7.63%) + D(715.9m)/V(8.24b) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.73 | Cagr: -2.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈581.5m ; Y1≈666.6m ; Y5≈981.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 129.3 (EV 14.8b - Net Debt 534.6m = Equity 14.2b / Shares 110.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -25.73 | EPS CAGR: -0.62% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -41.63 | Revenue CAGR: -0.50% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.74 | Chg30d=-0.10% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-2.9% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.09 | Chg30d=-0.24% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)