AOS Stock Analysis: Smith AO | NYSE

Water Heaters, Boilers, Heat Pumps, Water Treatment

Total Rating 49

Safety 76

Buy Signal -0.69

Specialty Industrial Machinery
Industry Rotation: +8.2

Market Cap: 8.70B
Avg Turnover: 109M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility27.5%

VaR 5^th Pctl4.82%

VaR vs Median6.41%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.42

Rel. Str. IBD16

Rel. Str. Peer Group17.2

Character TTM

Beta0.480

Beta Downside0.520

Hurst Exponent0.513

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD36.93%

CAGR/Max DD-0.07

CAGR/Mean DD-0.15

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -0.62%
EPS Trend: -25.7%

Last SUE: 1.27
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -0.50%
Rev. Trend: -41.6%

Last SUE: 0.40
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -0.3% 16

Feb +0.2% 7

Mar -0.3% 7

Apr -1.5% 21

May -1.4% 11

Jun +0.4% 7

Jul +0.6% 20

Aug +0.5% 11

Sep -0.7% 2

Oct -1.7% 11

Nov +5.0% 46

Dec -3.5% 10

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AOS Smith AO

A. O. Smith Corporation is a global manufacturer of water heating and water treatment products, serving both residential and commercial customers across North America, China, Europe, and India. Its product portfolio spans gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, expansion tanks, and a range of water treatment solutions including water softeners, filtration systems, and reverse osmosis products, marketed under brands such as A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, and Aquasana. The company sells through wholesale plumbing distributors, retail and home center chains, manufacturer representatives, e-commerce platforms, and an Amazon presence for its branded water treatment products.

Founded in 1874 and headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, A. O. Smith is classified within the Industrials sector and the Building Products sub-industry, with a mid-cap market capitalization of approximately $8.3 billion. The water heater industry is largely driven by replacement demand in mature markets and by new construction and rising penetration in emerging markets, which has supported A. O. Smiths long-established international footprint, particularly in China where it holds a leading market position in the water heater category.

Headlines to Watch Out For

China property slump weighs on water heater demand and margins
Heat pump water heater adoption accelerates with IRA tax credits
Steel and raw material costs pressure North America margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.0

Net Income: 500.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.31 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 13.60% < 20% (prev 14.39%; Δ -0.79% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 692.3m > Net Income 500.3m
Net Debt (534.6m) to EBITDA (761.1m): 0.70 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (138.5m) vs 12m ago -3.44% < -2%
Gross Margin: 38.59% > 18% (prev 38.20%; Δ 0.39% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 110.4% > 50% (prev 116.7%; Δ -6.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 31.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 668.7m / Interest Expense TTM 21.2m)

Altman Z'' 6.97

A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.39b - Total Current Liabilities 871.7m) / Total Assets 3.64b
B: 1.12 (Retained Earnings 4.09b / Total Assets 3.64b)
C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 668.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.45b)
D: 1.02 (Book Value of Equity 1.84b / Total Liabilities 1.80b)
Altman-Z'' = 6.97 = AAA

Beneish M -2.89

DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 669.8m/640.3m, Revenue 3.80b/3.79b)
GMI: 0.99 (GM 38.20% / 38.59%)
AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.36)
SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 3.80b / 3.79b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 500.3m - CFO 692.3m) / TA 3.64b)
Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of AOS shares?

As of August 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 62.41 with a total of 907,763 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.77%, over one month by +3.88%, over three months by +7.29% and over the past year by -9.54%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 59.80 (which is 4.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is AOS a buy, sell or hold?

Smith AO has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.46. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AOS.

StrongBuy: 4
Buy: 1
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the AOS price?

Analysts Target Price	69.9	12%

Smith AO (AOS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 09 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 8.70b (8.70b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 17.5288
P/E Forward = 15.949
P/S = 2.2853
P/B = 4.4368
P/EG = 1.5698
Revenue TTM = 3.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 668.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 761.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 598.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 39.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 715.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 39.2m
Net Debt = 534.6m USD (calculated: Debt 715.9m - CCE 181.3m)
Enterprise Value = 9.23b USD (8.70b + Debt 715.9m - CCE 181.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 31.54 (Ebit TTM 668.7m / Interest Expense TTM 21.2m)
EV/FCF = 14.44x (Enterprise Value 9.23b / FCF TTM 639.4m)
FCF Yield = 6.93% (FCF TTM 639.4m / Enterprise Value 9.23b)
FCF Margin = 16.80% (FCF TTM 639.4m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Net Margin = 13.15% (Net Income TTM 500.3m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Gross Margin = 38.59% ((Revenue TTM 3.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.61% (prev 38.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.53 (Enterprise Value 9.23b / Total Assets 3.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 21.2m / Debt 715.9m)
Taxrate = 22.45% (144.8m / 645.1m)
NOPAT = 518.6m (EBIT 668.7m * (1 - 22.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.59 (Total Current Assets 1.39b / Total Current Liabilities 871.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 715.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.84b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.70 (Net Debt 534.6m / EBITDA 761.1m)
Debt / FCF = 0.84 (Net Debt 534.6m / FCF TTM 639.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.52% (Net Income 500.3m / Total Assets 3.64b)
RoE = 26.96% (Net Income TTM 500.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.86b)
RoCE = 27.25% (EBIT 668.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.86b + L.T.Debt 598.0m))
RoIC = 19.71% (NOPAT 518.6m / Invested Capital 2.63b)
WACC = 7.26% (E(8.70b)/V(9.41b) * Re(7.67%) + D(715.9m)/V(9.41b) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.73 | Cagr: -2.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈581.5m ; Y1≈666.6m ; Y5≈981.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 129.3 (EV 14.8b - Net Debt 534.6m = Equity 14.2b / Shares 110.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -25.73 | EPS CAGR: -0.62% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -41.63 | Revenue CAGR: -0.50% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=-9.83% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.74 | Chg30d=-0.78% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-2.8% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.10 | Chg30d=-1.96% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+9.4% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -13% (up=5, down=7)