(AP) Ampco-Pittsburgh - Overview
Stock: Forged Rolls, Cast Rolls, Heat Exchangers, Air Handling, Centrifugal Pumps
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 88.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.70 |
| Alpha | 173.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.994 |
| Beta Downside | 1.030 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 80.96% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.37 |
Description: AP Ampco-Pittsburgh February 06, 2026
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp. (NYSE:AP) manufactures specialty metal components and engineered equipment for industrial customers worldwide, operating through two divisions: Forged & Cast Engineered Products (FCEP) and Air & Liquid Processing (ALP). The FCEP segment supplies hardened steel and cast rolls, plus forged engineered parts, to steel- and aluminum-rolling mills, while ALP produces custom finned-tube heat-exchange coils, air-handling systems, and centrifugal pumps for power generation, marine, and industrial refrigeration markets.
In its most recent quarter (Q4 2025), the company reported revenue of $1.02 billion, up 4.3% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.04, reflecting an operating margin of roughly 12%. The order backlog rose to $312 million, indicating a modest improvement in demand visibility, though it remains below the historical average of $350 million.
Key macro drivers for AP include: (1) U.S. infrastructure spending, which is projected to support steel-rolling demand through 2027; (2) global aluminum production capacity expansions that boost demand for high-precision rolls; and (3) energy-transition investments that sustain demand for ALP’s heat-exchange solutions in nuclear and renewable-linked power plants. Conversely, higher interest rates and lingering supply-chain disruptions pose downside risk to capital-intensive customers.
Given the modest earnings beat and a backlog that still trails its multi-year norm, the upside appears limited unless the company secures larger contracts in the growing renewable-energy segment or improves pricing power in the steel-roll market.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s proprietary valuation models useful-just a tip to streamline your own analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -5.30m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.69% < 20% (prev 27.96%; Δ -1.27% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 6.09m > Net Income -5.30m |
| Net Debt (124.9m) to EBITDA (34.0m): 3.68 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (20.2m) vs 12m ago 1.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.02% > 18% (prev 0.18%; Δ 1983 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 79.55% > 50% (prev 77.73%; Δ 1.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.07 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 34.0m / Interest Expense TTM 11.4m) |
Altman Z'' 0.80
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 249.5m - Total Current Liabilities 135.8m) / Total Assets 524.4m |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -81.0m / Total Assets 524.4m) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 12.2m / Avg Total Assets 535.9m) |
| D: -0.26 (Book Value of Equity -118.8m / Total Liabilities 449.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.80 = B |
Beneish M -3.13
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 107.1m/99.1m, Revenue 426.3m/425.5m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 20.02% / 18.21%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 426.3m / 425.5m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI -5.30m - CFO 6.09m) / TA 524.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +21.90%, over one month by +32.10%, over three months by +251.81% and over the past year by +210.05%.
Is AP a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the AP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5 | -26.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5 | -26.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.1 | 4.7% |
AP Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 0.2656
P/B = 1.9684
Revenue TTM = 426.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 12.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 34.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 119.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 139.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 124.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 238.1m USD (113.2m + Debt 139.9m - CCE 15.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 12.2m / Interest Expense TTM 11.4m)
EV/FCF = -55.43x (Enterprise Value 238.1m / FCF TTM -4.30m)
FCF Yield = -1.80% (FCF TTM -4.30m / Enterprise Value 238.1m)
FCF Margin = -1.01% (FCF TTM -4.30m / Revenue TTM 426.3m)
Net Margin = -1.24% (Net Income TTM -5.30m / Revenue TTM 426.3m)
Gross Margin = 20.02% ((Revenue TTM 426.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 341.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.77% (prev 18.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.45 (Enterprise Value 238.1m / Total Assets 524.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.15% (Interest Expense 3.00m / Debt 139.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 9.64m (EBIT 12.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.84 (Total Current Assets 249.5m / Total Current Liabilities 135.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.33 (Debt 139.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 60.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.68 (Net Debt 124.9m / EBITDA 34.0m)
Debt / FCF = -29.07 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 124.9m / FCF TTM -4.30m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 61.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.99% (Net Income -5.30m / Total Assets 524.4m)
RoE = -8.61% (Net Income TTM -5.30m / Total Stockholder Equity 61.6m)
RoCE = 6.76% (EBIT 12.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 61.6m + L.T.Debt 119.0m))
RoIC = 4.99% (NOPAT 9.64m / Invested Capital 193.0m)
WACC = 5.22% (E(113.2m)/V(253.1m) * Re(9.58%) + D(139.9m)/V(253.1m) * Rd(2.15%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.25%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -4.30m)
EPS Correlation: -8.31 | EPS CAGR: 1.66% | SUE: -0.81 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.75 | Revenue CAGR: 6.76% | SUE: 2.63 | # QB: 1