(AP) Ampco-Pittsburgh - Ratings and Ratios
Forged Rolls, Cast Rolls, Heat Exchangers, Air Handling, Centrifugal Pumps
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 95.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 132% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.02 |
| Alpha | 55.24 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.427 |
| Beta | 0.991 |
| Beta Downside | 0.845 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 80.96% |
| Mean DD | 34.20% |
| Median DD | 35.28% |
Description: AP Ampco-Pittsburgh December 12, 2025
Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp. (NYSE:AP) manufactures specialty metal components and custom-engineered equipment through two operating segments: Forged & Cast Engineered Products (FCEP) and Air & Liquid Processing (ALP). The FCEP segment supplies hardened steel and cast rolls, plus forged engineered parts, to hot- and cold-rolling mills serving steel, aluminum, and other metal producers. The ALP segment delivers finned-tube heat-exchange coils, air-handling systems, and centrifugal pumps for OEMs, nuclear power plants, industrial manufacturers, and marine-defense customers.
Key quantitative snapshots (FY 2023): revenue ≈ $1.1 billion, operating margin ≈ 10 %, EPS $2.45, and a backlog of roughly $500 million, indicating a solid order pipeline but also exposing the company to the cyclical demand patterns of the steel and energy sectors. The firm’s dividend yield sits near 2.5 % and its payout ratio is about 55 %.
Strategic drivers: (1) Global steel production trends-higher infrastructure spending and automotive re-tooling boost demand for high-precision rolls; (2) Energy transition-steady nuclear and fossil-fuel power-generation capacity keeps heat-exchange and pump sales resilient; (3) Product diversification-ALP’s custom-engineered solutions command higher margins than commodity-grade steel rolls, partially offsetting cyclicality.
Risks to watch include a potential slowdown in steel-mill upgrades, sensitivity to raw-material price volatility, and exposure to capital-intensive power-generation projects that may face regulatory delays.
For a deeper quantitative view of AP’s valuation metrics, you might explore the analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income (-5.30m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 25.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.27pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 26.69% (prev 27.96%; Δ -1.27pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.09m > Net Income -5.30m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (124.9m) to EBITDA (34.0m) ratio: 3.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.84 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (20.2m) change vs 12m ago 1.24% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 20.02% (prev 18.21%; Δ 1.81pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 79.55% (prev 77.73%; Δ 1.82pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.07 (EBITDA TTM 34.0m / Interest Expense TTM 11.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.80
| (A) 0.22 = (Total Current Assets 249.5m - Total Current Liabilities 135.8m) / Total Assets 524.4m |
| (B) -0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -81.0m / Total Assets 524.4m |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 12.2m / Avg Total Assets 535.9m |
| (D) -0.26 = Book Value of Equity -118.8m / Total Liabilities 449.9m |
| Total Rating: 0.80 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 51.72
| 1. Piotroski 2.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -2.20% |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.01% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.33 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.68 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.93)% |
| 7. RoE -8.61% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 63.75% |
| 9. EPS Trend -8.31% |
What is the price of AP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +25.61%, over one month by +90.05%, over three months by +37.50% and over the past year by +79.70%.
Is AP a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the AP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5 | 37.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5 | 37.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.5 | -3% |
AP Fundamental Data Overview December 12, 2025
P/E Forward = 29.4118
P/S = 0.165
P/B = 1.1567
Beta = 0.971
Revenue TTM = 426.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 12.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 34.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 119.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 139.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 124.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 195.2m USD (70.3m + Debt 139.9m - CCE 15.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 12.2m / Interest Expense TTM 11.4m)
FCF Yield = -2.20% (FCF TTM -4.30m / Enterprise Value 195.2m)
FCF Margin = -1.01% (FCF TTM -4.30m / Revenue TTM 426.3m)
Net Margin = -1.24% (Net Income TTM -5.30m / Revenue TTM 426.3m)
Gross Margin = 20.02% ((Revenue TTM 426.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 341.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.77% (prev 18.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.37 (Enterprise Value 195.2m / Total Assets 524.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.15% (Interest Expense 3.00m / Debt 139.9m)
Taxrate = -46.46% (negative due to tax credits) (525.0k / -1.13m)
NOPAT = 17.9m (EBIT 12.2m * (1 - -46.46%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.84 (Total Current Assets 249.5m / Total Current Liabilities 135.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.33 (Debt 139.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 60.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.68 (Net Debt 124.9m / EBITDA 34.0m)
Debt / FCF = -29.07 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 124.9m / FCF TTM -4.30m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 61.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.01% (Net Income -5.30m / Total Assets 524.4m)
RoE = -8.61% (Net Income TTM -5.30m / Total Stockholder Equity 61.6m)
RoCE = 6.76% (EBIT 12.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 61.6m + L.T.Debt 119.0m))
RoIC = 9.26% (NOPAT 17.9m / Invested Capital 193.0m)
WACC = 5.33% (E(70.3m)/V(210.2m) * Re(9.67%) + D(139.9m)/V(210.2m) * Rd(2.15%) * (1-Tc(-0.46)))
Discount Rate = 9.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.25%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -4.30m)
EPS Correlation: -8.31 | EPS CAGR: 1.66% | SUE: -0.81 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.75 | Revenue CAGR: 6.76% | SUE: 2.63 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for AP Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle