(ARCO) Arcos Dorados Holdings - Overview
Sector: Consumer CyclicalIndustry: Restaurants | Exchange NYSE (USA) | Currency USD | Market Cap: 1.690m | Total Return 0.3% in 12m
Stock: Burgers, Fries, Beverages, Chicken, Desserts
Total Rating 49
Risk 61
Buy Signal -0.36
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.93% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.05 |
| Alpha | -6.53 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.622 |
| Beta Downside | 1.476 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings February 28, 2026
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO) is the exclusive franchisee of McDonald’s in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets, operating and licensing restaurants across countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, the firm controls a network that represents the largest fast-food footprint in the region.
In FY 2023 the company generated $5.3 billion in revenue, with comparable restaurant sales rising 8% year-over-year, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and continued rollout of digital ordering platforms. Operating margin held steady around 15%, while the dividend yield sits near 0.8% and net debt-to-equity is roughly 1.2, reflecting a balanced capital structure amid regional currency volatility and inflationary pressures.
For a deeper dive into ARCO’s valuation metrics, consider reviewing the analysis on ValueRay.
Headlines to watch out for
- Latin American economic stability impacts consumer discretionary spending
- Currency fluctuations affect repatriated earnings and input costs
- Commodity price volatility influences food and packaging expenses
- Regulatory changes in labor and food safety increase operating costs
- McDonalds brand strength drives customer traffic and loyalty
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 212.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.50% < 20% (prev -6.66%; Δ 7.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 275.0m > Net Income 212.1m |
| Net Debt (1.87b) to EBITDA (571.8m): 3.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.6m) vs 12m ago -0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.27% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1.21k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 138.0% > 50% (prev 154.5%; Δ -16.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 571.8m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m) |
Altman Z'' 1.74
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 852.0m - Total Current Liabilities 828.7m) / Total Assets 3.89b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 825.9m / Total Assets 3.89b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 374.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.39b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 781.2m / Total Liabilities 3.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.74 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.40
| DSRI: 1.47 (Receivables 249.0m/161.9m, Revenue 4.68b/4.47b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 12.27% / 13.13%) |
| AQI: 1.27 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 4.68b / 4.47b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 212.1m - CFO 275.0m) / TA 3.89b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.40 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of ARCO shares?
As of March 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.07 with a total of 996,481 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.08%, over one month by -8.30%, over three months by +10.10% and over the past year by +0.29%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.08%, over one month by -8.30%, over three months by +10.10% and over the past year by +0.29%.
Is ARCO a buy, sell or hold?
Arcos Dorados Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.9 | 22.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.9 | 22.8% |
ARCO Fundamental Data Overview March 25, 2026
P/E Trailing = 7.9406
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3611
P/B = 2.1723
P/EG = 0.5441
Revenue TTM = 4.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 374.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 571.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 985.2m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 118.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.87b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.51b USD (1.69b + Debt 2.25b - CCE 422.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.64 (Ebit TTM 374.5m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
EV/FCF = 313.2x (Enterprise Value 3.51b / FCF TTM 11.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.32% (FCF TTM 11.2m / Enterprise Value 3.51b)
FCF Margin = 0.24% (FCF TTM 11.2m / Revenue TTM 4.68b)
Net Margin = 4.53% (Net Income TTM 212.1m / Revenue TTM 4.68b)
Gross Margin = 12.27% ((Revenue TTM 4.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.25% (prev 11.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 3.51b / Total Assets 3.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.37% (Interest Expense 8.25m / Debt 2.25b)
Taxrate = 37.72% (128.7m / 341.3m)
NOPAT = 233.3m (EBIT 374.5m * (1 - 37.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 852.0m / Total Current Liabilities 828.7m)
Debt / Equity = 2.91 (Debt 2.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 770.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.27 (Net Debt 1.87b / EBITDA 571.8m)
Debt / FCF = 166.9 (Net Debt 1.87b / FCF TTM 11.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 652.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.26% (Net Income 212.1m / Total Assets 3.89b)
RoE = 32.50% (Net Income TTM 212.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 652.7m)
RoCE = 22.87% (EBIT 374.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 652.7m + L.T.Debt 985.2m))
RoIC = 13.92% (NOPAT 233.3m / Invested Capital 1.68b)
WACC = 3.64% (E(1.69b)/V(3.93b) * Re(8.17%) + D(2.25b)/V(3.93b) * Rd(0.37%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 8.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈11.2m ; Y1≈7.36m ; Y5≈3.37m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 106.9m - Net Debt 1.87b = -1.77b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -8.88 | EPS CAGR: 2.20% | SUE: -2.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.59 | Revenue CAGR: 13.39% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg7d=+0.010 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg7d=-0.035 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-37.2% | Growth Revenue=+8.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.79 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+21.2% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (1 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = -4.4% (Discount Rate 8.2% - Earnings Yield 12.6%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +17.3% (Analyst 12.8% - Implied -4.4%)
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3611
P/B = 2.1723
P/EG = 0.5441
Revenue TTM = 4.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 374.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 571.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 985.2m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 118.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.87b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.51b USD (1.69b + Debt 2.25b - CCE 422.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.64 (Ebit TTM 374.5m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
EV/FCF = 313.2x (Enterprise Value 3.51b / FCF TTM 11.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.32% (FCF TTM 11.2m / Enterprise Value 3.51b)
FCF Margin = 0.24% (FCF TTM 11.2m / Revenue TTM 4.68b)
Net Margin = 4.53% (Net Income TTM 212.1m / Revenue TTM 4.68b)
Gross Margin = 12.27% ((Revenue TTM 4.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.25% (prev 11.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 3.51b / Total Assets 3.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.37% (Interest Expense 8.25m / Debt 2.25b)
Taxrate = 37.72% (128.7m / 341.3m)
NOPAT = 233.3m (EBIT 374.5m * (1 - 37.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 852.0m / Total Current Liabilities 828.7m)
Debt / Equity = 2.91 (Debt 2.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 770.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.27 (Net Debt 1.87b / EBITDA 571.8m)
Debt / FCF = 166.9 (Net Debt 1.87b / FCF TTM 11.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 652.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.26% (Net Income 212.1m / Total Assets 3.89b)
RoE = 32.50% (Net Income TTM 212.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 652.7m)
RoCE = 22.87% (EBIT 374.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 652.7m + L.T.Debt 985.2m))
RoIC = 13.92% (NOPAT 233.3m / Invested Capital 1.68b)
WACC = 3.64% (E(1.69b)/V(3.93b) * Re(8.17%) + D(2.25b)/V(3.93b) * Rd(0.37%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 8.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈11.2m ; Y1≈7.36m ; Y5≈3.37m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 106.9m - Net Debt 1.87b = -1.77b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -8.88 | EPS CAGR: 2.20% | SUE: -2.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.59 | Revenue CAGR: 13.39% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg7d=+0.010 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg7d=-0.035 | Chg30d=-0.035 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-37.2% | Growth Revenue=+8.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.79 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+21.2% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +1.00 (1 Up / 0 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = -4.4% (Discount Rate 8.2% - Earnings Yield 12.6%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +17.3% (Analyst 12.8% - Implied -4.4%)