(ARCO) Arcos Dorados Holdings - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.700m USD | Total Return: 24.9% in 12m
Burgers, French Fries, Beverages, Desserts
Total Rating 52
Safety 54
Buy Signal 1.12
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: +1.8
Industry Rotation: +1.8
Market Cap:
1.70B
Avg Turnover: 9.38M
Avg Turnover: 9.38M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility40.3%
VaR 5th Pctl6.67%
VaR vs Median0.32%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.69
Rel. Str. IBD68.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group85.1
Character TTM
Beta0.642
Beta Downside0.838
Hurst Exponent0.434
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD47.87%
CAGR/Max DD0.09
CAGR/Mean DD0.16
EPS (Earnings per Share)
EPS CAGR: -20.58%
EPS Trend: -90.3%
EPS Trend: -90.3%
Last SUE: -1.99
Qual. Beats: -2
Qual. Beats: -2
Revenue
Rev. CAGR: 6.01%
Rev. Trend: 88.0%
Rev. Trend: 88.0%
Last SUE: 0.10
Qual. Beats: 0
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Overextended 3d
Tailwinds
Avwap Ph Month, Confidence
Description: ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is the worlds largest independent McDonalds franchisee, maintaining exclusive rights to operate and sub-franchise the brand across 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean. Headquartered in Uruguay, the company manages a vast geographic footprint that includes major markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.
The business model relies on a master franchise agreement, which requires the company to pay royalties based on a percentage of gross sales in exchange for brand intellectual property and operational support. In the quick-service restaurant sector, geographic diversification helps mitigate localized economic volatility, though it exposes the entity to significant currency exchange risks across emerging markets.
Further analysis of dividend yield and valuation multiples is available on ValueRay to assist with your due diligence. Arcos Dorados remains a primary vehicle for investors seeking exposure to consumer discretionary spending and middle-class expansion within the Latin American region.
- Brazil market performance dictates overall revenue growth and consolidated EBITDA margins
- Local currency volatility against the US dollar impacts reported financial results
- Regional inflation levels influence menu pricing strategies and consumer purchasing power
- McDonald’s master franchise agreement terms govern royalty costs and expansion mandates
- Digital sales penetration and delivery platform adoption drive comparable store growth
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict)
3.0
| Net Income: 212.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.50% < 20% (prev -6.66%; Δ 7.15% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 275.0m > Net Income 212.1m |
| Net Debt (1.87b) to EBITDA (571.8m): 3.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.6m) vs 12m ago -0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.27% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1.21k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 138.0% > 50% (prev 154.5%; Δ -16.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 571.8m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m) |
Altman Z''
1.74
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 852.0m - Total Current Liabilities 828.7m) / Total Assets 3.89b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 825.9m / Total Assets 3.89b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 374.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.39b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 781.2m / Total Liabilities 3.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.74 = BBB |
Beneish M
-2.40
| DSRI: 1.47 (Receivables 249.0m/161.9m, Revenue 4.68b/4.47b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 12.27% / 13.13%) |
| AQI: 1.27 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 4.68b / 4.47b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 212.1m - CFO 275.0m) / TA 3.89b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.40 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of ARCO shares?
As of May 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.08 with a total of 2,905,487 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.70%, over one month by -4.42%, over three months by +2.45% and over the past year by +24.88%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.70%, over one month by -4.42%, over three months by +2.45% and over the past year by +24.88%.
Is ARCO a buy, sell or hold?
Arcos Dorados Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCO price?
| Analysts Target Price | 10.7 | 17.7% |
Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) - Fundamental Data Overview
as of 21 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 7.9901 P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3634
P/B = 2.4662
P/EG = 0.5441
Revenue TTM = 4.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 374.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 571.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.13b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 118.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.87b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.52b USD (1.70b + Debt 2.25b - CCE 422.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.64 (Ebit TTM 374.5m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
EV/FCF = 314.1x (Enterprise Value 3.52b / FCF TTM 11.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.32% (FCF TTM 11.2m / Enterprise Value 3.52b)
FCF Margin = 0.24% (FCF TTM 11.2m / Revenue TTM 4.68b)
Net Margin = 4.53% (Net Income TTM 212.1m / Revenue TTM 4.68b)
Gross Margin = 12.27% ((Revenue TTM 4.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.25% (prev 11.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 3.52b / Total Assets 3.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.37% (Interest Expense 8.25m / Debt 2.25b)
Taxrate = 37.72% (128.7m / 341.3m)
NOPAT = 233.3m (EBIT 374.5m * (1 - 37.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 852.0m / Total Current Liabilities 828.7m)
Debt / Equity = 2.91 (Debt 2.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 770.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.27 (Net Debt 1.87b / EBITDA 571.8m)
Debt / FCF = 166.9 (Net Debt 1.87b / FCF TTM 11.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 652.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.26% (Net Income 212.1m / Total Assets 3.89b)
RoE = 32.50% (Net Income TTM 212.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 652.7m)
RoCE = 21.06% (EBIT 374.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 652.7m + L.T.Debt 1.13b))
RoIC = 13.45% (NOPAT 233.3m / Invested Capital 1.73b)
WACC = 3.68% (E(1.70b)/V(3.95b) * Re(8.24%) + D(2.25b)/V(3.95b) * Rd(0.37%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 8.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 59.81 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈11.2m ; Y1≈7.36m ; Y5≈3.37m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 106.9m - Net Debt 1.87b = -1.77b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -90.32 | EPS CAGR: -20.58% | SUE: -1.99 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 87.97 | Revenue CAGR: 6.01% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=+7.14% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=+7.40% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-28.9% | GrowthRev=+11.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+9.62% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=+17.4% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +43%