ARCO Stock Analysis: Arcos Dorados Holdings | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.706m USD | 12M Return: 23.1% | VGG0457F1071 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.1M
EPS Trend: 52.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 91.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO) is the largest independent McDonalds franchisee in the world, holding exclusive rights to own, operate, and sub-franchise McDonalds restaurants across 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including major markets such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia. Headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay and founded in 2007, the company operates within the consumer discretionary sector under the restaurants sub-industry, generating revenue primarily through sales at company-operated restaurants, royalties, and rental income from franchised locations under a master franchise agreement with McDonalds Corporation.
- Brazil and Mexico same-store sales drive revenue
- Latin American currency volatility pressures dollar-reported results
- Beef and commodity input costs pressure restaurant margins
| Net Income: 256.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.01% < 20% (prev -3.44%; Δ 1.43% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 341.3m > Net Income 256.7m |
| Net Debt (3.14b) to EBITDA (644.9m): 4.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.7m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.31% > 18% (prev 12.53%; Δ -0.22% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 137.1% > 50% (prev 133.3%; Δ 3.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.00 > 6 (EBIT TTM 433.1m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 759.2m - Total Current Liabilities 859.5m) / Total Assets 3.89b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 848.1m / Total Assets 3.89b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 433.1m / Avg Total Assets 3.63b) |
| D: 0.27 (Book Value of Equity 831.1m / Total Liabilities 3.06b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.63 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 265.1m/201.2m, Revenue 4.98b/4.50b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 12.53% / 12.31%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 4.98b / 4.50b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 256.7m - CFO 341.3m) / TA 3.89b) |
| Beneish M = -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.12 with a total of 3,732,918 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +17.51%, over one month by +0.20%, over three months by +0.20% and over the past year by +23.11%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.70 (which is 5.2% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Arcos Dorados Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCO.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 11.3 | 39% |
P/E Trailing = 5.8273
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3426
P/B = 1.9366
P/EG = 0.5441
Revenue TTM = 4.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 433.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 644.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 959.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 160.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.41b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.21b
Net Debt = 3.14b USD (calculated: Debt 3.41b - CCE 270.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.84b USD (1.71b + Debt 3.41b - CCE 270.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.00 (Ebit TTM 433.1m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
EV/FCF = 50.76x (Enterprise Value 4.84b / FCF TTM 95.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.97% (FCF TTM 95.4m / Enterprise Value 4.84b)
FCF Margin = 1.92% (FCF TTM 95.4m / Revenue TTM 4.98b)
Net Margin = 5.15% (Net Income TTM 256.7m / Revenue TTM 4.98b)
Gross Margin = 12.31% ((Revenue TTM 4.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.37b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.06% (prev 10.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 4.84b / Total Assets 3.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.27% (Interest Expense 43.3m / Debt 3.41b)
Taxrate = 36.45% (147.5m / 404.6m)
NOPAT = 275.3m (EBIT 433.1m * (1 - 36.45%))
Current Ratio = 0.88 (Total Current Assets 759.2m / Total Current Liabilities 859.5m)
Debt / Equity = 4.10 (Debt 3.41b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 831.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.86 (Net Debt 3.14b / EBITDA 644.9m)
Debt / FCF = 32.88 (Net Debt 3.14b / FCF TTM 95.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 780.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.07% (Net Income 256.7m / Total Assets 3.89b)
RoE = 32.90% (Net Income TTM 256.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 780.4m)
RoCE = 24.90% (EBIT 433.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 780.4m + L.T.Debt 959.4m))
RoIC = 9.35% (NOPAT 275.3m / Invested Capital 2.94b)
WACC = 3.37% (E(1.71b)/V(5.11b) * Re(8.48%) + D(3.41b)/V(5.11b) * Rd(1.27%) * (1-Tc(0.36)))
Discount Rate = 8.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -13.98 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈95.4m ; Y1≈95.8m ; Y5≈101.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.58b - Net Debt 3.14b = -1.56b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 52.69 | EPS CAGR: 14.35% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.29 | Revenue CAGR: 4.81% | SUE: 0.58 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=-2.12% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=-1.00% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=-23.1% | GrowthRev=+13.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+8.2% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=6, down=2)