ARI Stock Analysis: Apollo Commercial Real | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.347m USD | 12M Return: 74.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.2M
EPS Trend: -44.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -48.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) is a New York-based real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on debt-based commercial real estate investments rather than direct property ownership. The company originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt instruments. As a Mortgage REIT within the Financials sector, ARI generates income primarily from the interest and fees earned on its loan portfolio rather than rental income from owned properties.
To maintain its REIT qualification under the Internal Revenue Code, the company is required to distribute at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to shareholders, which generally exempts it from federal income taxes at the corporate level. Incorporated in 2009 and listed on the NYSE shortly thereafter, ARI operates as an externally managed company, with its investment activities overseen by an affiliated entity of Apollo Global Management. Mortgage REITs like ARI are typically more sensitive to interest rate movements and credit spreads than equity REITs, since their earnings depend on the spread between the yield on their loan portfolios and their cost of funding.
- Office and retail loan defaults rise on refinancing pressure
- Net interest margin compresses as funding costs outpace asset yields
- Dividend sustainability pressured by commercial real estate valuation declines
| Net Income: 127.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -900.8% < 20% (prev -153.7%; Δ -747.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 115.8m > Net Income 127.0m |
| Net Debt (8.03b) to EBITDA (609.1m): 13.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (139.7m) vs 12m ago 0.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.21% > 18% (prev 79.31%; Δ -13.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.52% > 50% (prev 7.53%; Δ -0.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 596.4m / Interest Expense TTM 469.0m) |
| A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 185.2m - Total Current Liabilities 6.57b) / Total Assets 10.1b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -861.3m / Total Assets 10.1b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 596.4m / Avg Total Assets 9.44b) |
| D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 1.81b / Total Liabilities 8.28b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.78 = D |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 58.4m/61.0m, Revenue 709.2m/661.1m) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 79.31% / 66.21%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 709.2m / 661.1m) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 127.0m - CFO 115.8m) / TA 10.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.43 with a total of 2,582,783 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.38%, over one month by +50.91%, over three months by +46.28% and over the past year by +74.76%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.90 (which is 5.1% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
Apollo Commercial Real has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARI.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 11.8 | 13.4% |
P/E Trailing = 12.7037
P/E Forward = 15.528
P/S = 5.0189
P/B = 0.751
P/EG = 1.3281
Revenue TTM = 709.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 596.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 609.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.66b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.49b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.03b USD (calculated: Debt 8.16b - CCE 126.8m)
Enterprise Value = 9.38b USD (1.35b + Debt 8.16b - CCE 126.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.27 (Ebit TTM 596.4m / Interest Expense TTM 469.0m)
EV/FCF = 339.9x (Enterprise Value 9.38b / FCF TTM 27.6m)
FCF Yield = 0.29% (FCF TTM 27.6m / Enterprise Value 9.38b)
FCF Margin = 3.89% (FCF TTM 27.6m / Revenue TTM 709.2m)
Net Margin = 17.90% (Net Income TTM 127.0m / Revenue TTM 709.2m)
Gross Margin = 66.21% ((Revenue TTM 709.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 239.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.42% (prev 78.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 9.38b / Total Assets 10.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.75% (Interest Expense 469.0m / Debt 8.16b)
Taxrate = 0.35% (445k / 127.4m)
NOPAT = 594.3m (EBIT 596.4m * (1 - 0.35%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 185.2m / Total Current Liabilities 6.57b)
Debt / Equity = 4.50 (Debt 8.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.81b)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.19 (Net Debt 8.03b / EBITDA 609.1m)
Debt / FCF = 291.1 (Net Debt 8.03b / FCF TTM 27.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.35% (Net Income 127.0m / Total Assets 10.1b)
RoE = 6.88% (Net Income TTM 127.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.84b)
RoCE = 17.00% (EBIT 596.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.84b + L.T.Debt 1.66b))
RoIC = 5.96% (NOPAT 594.3m / Invested Capital 9.97b)
WACC = 6.21% (E(1.35b)/V(9.51b) * Re(9.14%) + D(8.16b)/V(9.51b) * Rd(5.75%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 9.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -20.0 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.15% ; FCFF base≈28.7m ; Y1≈26.6m ; Y5≈24.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 383.0m - Net Debt 8.03b = -7.65b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -44.72 | EPS CAGR: -31.46% | SUE: -0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -48.01 | Revenue CAGR: -4.09% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=-14.10% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-24.65% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=-9.53% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-56.2% | GrowthRev=-61.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.74 | Chg30d=+0.35% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+60.0% | GrowthRev=+35.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)