(ARI) Apollo Commercial Real - Ratings and Ratios
Commercial Mortgage Loans, Subordinate Financings, Real Estate Debt Investments
ARI EPS (Earnings per Share)
ARI Revenue
Description: ARI Apollo Commercial Real
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) is a mortgage REIT that specializes in originating and managing commercial real estate debt investments, including first mortgage loans and subordinate financings. As a REIT, it is exempt from federal income taxes provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. With its headquarters in New York, the company has been operating since 2009, navigating the complex landscape of commercial real estate finance.
From a technical analysis perspective, ARIs stock is currently trading at $9.82, slightly below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $9.84. However, it is above both its 50-day SMA of $9.34 and 200-day SMA of $9.03, indicating a potential bullish trend. The stocks average true range (ATR) is $0.17, representing a 1.72% daily volatility. Given its current price and technical indicators, a potential short-term target could be the 52-week high of $10.21, while the 52-week low of $7.98 serves as a key support level.
Fundamentally, ARI has a market capitalization of $1.392 billion and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.53, suggesting a relatively stable valuation. The companys return on equity (RoE) is 0.57, indicating a modest level of profitability. As a mortgage REIT, ARIs financial performance is closely tied to the overall health of the commercial real estate market and interest rates.
Combining technical and fundamental insights, a potential forecast for ARI is that it may continue to trade within a narrow range in the short term, potentially testing the $10.21 level in the coming weeks. However, its long-term performance will be influenced by the broader commercial real estate market trends, interest rate movements, and the companys ability to maintain a stable dividend payout. If ARI can continue to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, it is likely to remain an attractive option for income-seeking investors.
ARI Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 1,359m |
| Sector | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Mortgage |
| GiC Sub-Industry | Mortgage REITs |
| IPO / Inception | 2009-09-24 |
ARI Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 48.0 |
| Fundamental | -1.82 |
| Dividend Rating | 52.0 |
| Rel. Strength | 6.56 |
| Analysts | 3.33 of 5 |
| Fair Price Momentum | 10.58 USD |
| Fair Price DCF | 7.68 USD |
ARI Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 10.50% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 18.59% |
| Annual Growth 5y | -3.71% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 4.4% |
ARI Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 70.6% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 62.8% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 36% |
| CAGR 5y | 13.08% |
| CAGR/Max DD 5y | 0.31 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.86 |
| Alpha | -0.10 |
| Beta | 0.362 |
| Volatility | 23.50% |
| Current Volume | 723k |
| Average Volume 20d | 916.6k |
| Stop Loss | 9.6 (-3.5%) |
As of August 08, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 9.95 with a total of 722,954 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.43%, over one month by +1.43%, over three months by +8.27% and over the past year by +11.05%.
Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Apollo Commercial Real is currently (August 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of -1.82 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ARI is around 10.58 USD . This means that ARI is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of 6.33%.
Apollo Commercial Real has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ARI.
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
According to our own proprietary Forecast Model, ARI Apollo Commercial Real will be worth about 11.4 in August 2026. The stock is currently trading at 9.95. This means that the stock has a potential upside of +14.77%.
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.4 | 4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.8 | -1.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.4 | 14.8% |
ARI Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 177.6m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Forward = 15.528
P/S = 4.9633
P/B = 0.7239
P/EG = 33.37
Beta = 1.515
Revenue TTM = 163.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 224.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 200.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.60b USD (last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.81b USD (last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -177.6m USD (last quarter)
Debt = 6.42b USD (Short Term 4.81b + Long Term 1.60b)
Enterprise Value = 7.60b USD (Market Cap 1.36b + Debt 6.42b - CCE 177.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.98 (Ebit TTM 224.5m / Interest Expense TTM 228.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.10% (FCF TTM 83.7m / Enterprise Value 7.60b)
FCF Margin = 51.13% (FCF TTM 83.7m / Revenue TTM 163.6m)
Net Margin = -2.55% (Net Income TTM -4.17m / Revenue TTM 163.6m)
Gross Margin = 4.53% ((Revenue TTM 163.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 156.2m) / Revenue TTM)
[93m Tobins Q-Ratio = -2.28 (Enterprise Value 7.60b / Book Value Of Equity -3.33b)
[39m Interest Expense / Debt = -1.93% (Interest Expense -124.2m / Debt 6.42b)
Taxrate = -0.33% (Income Tax Expense 394.0k / Income Before Tax -119.2m, last fiscal year)
NOPAT = 225.2m (EBIT 224.5m × (1 – -0.33%))
Current Ratio = 0.04 (Total Current Assets 177.6m / Total Current Liabilities 4.90b)
Debt / Equity = 3.48 (Debt 6.42b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 1.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 31.95 (Net Debt -177.6m / EBITDA 200.9m)
Debt / FCF = 76.70 (Debt 6.42b / FCF TTM 83.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.86b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = -0.04%
RoE = -0.22% (Net Income TTM -4.17m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.86b)
RoCE = 6.48% (Ebit 224.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.86b + Long Term Debt 1.60b)
RoIC = 2.53% (NOPAT 225.2m / Invested Capital 8.90b)
WACC = 0.31% ((Market Cap / EV) * CAPM 11.16%) + (Debt / EV) * Interest Expense on Debt * (1 - Taxrate)
Shares Correlation 5-Years: -90.0 | Cagr: -4.02%
Discount Rate = 11.16% (= CAPM)
Fair Price DCF = 7.68 (DCF Value 1.07b / Shares Outstanding 138.9m)
Revenue Correlation: 30.88 | Revenue CAGR: -23.39%
Revenue Growth Correlation: -42.12%
EPS Correlation: -85.09 | EPS CAGR: -48.68%
EPS Growth Correlation: 28.23%
Additional Sources for ARI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle