(ARI) Apollo Commercial Real - Overview

Sector: Real Estate | Industry: REIT - Mortgage | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.453m USD | Total Return: 23.3% in 12m

Commercial Mortgages, Subordinate Financing, Real Estate Debt
Total Rating 40
Safety 17
Buy Signal 0.05
REIT - Mortgage
Industry Rotation: -5.9
Market Cap: 1.45B
Avg Turnover: 15.0M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility25.4%
VaR 5th Pctl4.38%
VaR vs Median4.60%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.98
Rel. Str. IBD56.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group88.1
Character TTM
Beta0.732
Beta Downside0.907
Hurst Exponent0.453
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD24.73%
CAGR/Max DD0.62
CAGR/Mean DD1.65
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ARI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.39, "2021-06": 0.27, "2021-09": 0.35, "2021-12": 0.32, "2022-03": 0.35, "2022-06": 0.35, "2022-09": 0.37, "2022-12": 0.31, "2023-03": 0.48, "2023-06": -0.11, "2023-09": 0.37, "2023-12": 0.36, "2024-03": 0.35, "2024-06": 0.35, "2024-09": 0.31, "2024-12": -0.58, "2025-03": 0.24, "2025-06": 0.26, "2025-09": 0.23, "2025-12": 0.32, "2026-03": 0.22,
EPS CAGR: -31.46%
EPS Trend: -44.7%
Last SUE: -0.23
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ARI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 106.47, 2021-06: 94.523, 2021-09: 109.607, 2021-12: 110.982, 2022-03: 113.919, 2022-06: 142.706, 2022-09: 213.004, 2022-12: 171.712, 2023-03: 213.783, 2023-06: 133.830999, 2023-09: 214.22, 2023-12: 215.168, 2024-03: 214.317, 2024-06: 214.918, 2024-09: 76.783, 2024-12: 195.511, 2025-03: 173.862, 2025-06: 186.76, 2025-09: 167.143, 2025-12: 182.721, 2026-03: 172.556,
Rev. CAGR: -4.09%
Rev. Trend: -48.0%
Last SUE: 0.68
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy

Tailwinds

Confidence

Description: ARI Apollo Commercial Real

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) is a New York-based real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the commercial real estate debt market. The company specializes in the origination and management of senior mortgages, subordinate financings, and other debt instruments secured by commercial properties. As a mortgage REIT (mREIT), ARI functions as a non-bank lender, providing capital for property acquisitions and refinancings while generating income from the interest spread on its loan portfolio.

To maintain its tax-exempt status under the Internal Revenue Code, the company is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders annually. Unlike equity REITs that own and operate physical buildings, mortgage REITs are primarily exposed to credit risk and interest rate fluctuations rather than direct property management. Investors can further evaluate the underlying asset quality and yield stability of ARI on ValueRay.

Founded in 2009, the firm operates as a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, leveraging the parent organizations broader investment platform. This structure provides ARI with access to extensive market data and sourcing capabilities within the commercial lending sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Floating rate loan portfolio sensitivity to Federal Reserve interest rate movements
  • Asset quality and potential credit losses within office sector loan concentrations
  • Dividend sustainability relative to distributable earnings and REIT payout requirements
  • Liquidity position and ability to refinance maturing debt in tight credit markets
  • Deployment of capital into new high-yield commercial real estate debt originations
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 127.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.07 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -900.8% < 20% (prev -153.7%; Δ -747.2% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 115.8m > Net Income 127.0m
Net Debt (8.03b) to EBITDA (491.0m): 16.35 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (139.7m) vs 12m ago 0.52% < -2%
Gross Margin: 66.21% > 18% (prev 0.79%; Δ 6.54k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 7.52% > 50% (prev 7.53%; Δ -0.01% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.02 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 491.0m / Interest Expense TTM 469.0m)
Altman Z'' -4.20
A: -0.63 (Total Current Assets 185.2m - Total Current Liabilities 6.57b) / Total Assets 10.1b
B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -861.3m / Total Assets 10.1b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 478.3m / Avg Total Assets 9.44b)
D: -0.10 (Book Value of Equity -859.9m / Total Liabilities 8.28b)
Altman-Z'' = -4.20 = D
Beneish M -2.87
DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 58.4m/61.0m, Revenue 709.2m/661.1m)
GMI: 1.20 (GM 66.21% / 79.31%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.89)
SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 709.2m / 661.1m)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 127.0m - CFO 115.8m) / TA 10.1b)
Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of ARI shares?

As of May 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.93 with a total of 1,421,927 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.02%, over one month by -1.44%, over three months by +5.62% and over the past year by +23.28%.

Is ARI a buy, sell or hold?

Apollo Commercial Real has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARI.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARI price?
Analysts Target Price 11.6 6.1%
Apollo Commercial Real (ARI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 27 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.45b (1.45b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.5062
P/E Forward = 15.528
P/S = 5.4134
P/B = 0.8023
P/EG = 1.3281
Revenue TTM = 709.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 478.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 491.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.66b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.49b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.16b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.03b USD (calculated: Debt 8.16b - CCE 126.8m)
Enterprise Value = 9.48b USD (1.45b + Debt 8.16b - CCE 126.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.02 (Ebit TTM 478.3m / Interest Expense TTM 469.0m)
EV/FCF = 343.7x (Enterprise Value 9.48b / FCF TTM 27.6m)
FCF Yield = 0.29% (FCF TTM 27.6m / Enterprise Value 9.48b)
FCF Margin = 3.89% (FCF TTM 27.6m / Revenue TTM 709.2m)
Net Margin = 17.90% (Net Income TTM 127.0m / Revenue TTM 709.2m)
Gross Margin = 66.21% ((Revenue TTM 709.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 239.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.42% (prev 78.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 9.48b / Total Assets 10.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.75% (Interest Expense 469.0m / Debt 8.16b)
Taxrate = 0.87% (230k / 26.5m)
NOPAT = 474.2m (EBIT 478.3m * (1 - 0.87%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 185.2m / Total Current Liabilities 6.57b)
Debt / Equity = 4.50 (Debt 8.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.81b)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.35 (Net Debt 8.03b / EBITDA 491.0m)
Debt / FCF = 291.1 (Net Debt 8.03b / FCF TTM 27.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.35% (Net Income 127.0m / Total Assets 10.1b)
RoE = 4.69% (Net Income TTM 127.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.71b)
RoCE = 10.95% (EBIT 478.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.71b + L.T.Debt 1.66b))
RoIC = 4.77% (NOPAT 474.2m / Invested Capital 9.94b)
WACC = 6.13% (E(1.45b)/V(9.61b) * Re(8.56%) + D(8.16b)/V(9.61b) * Rd(5.75%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 8.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -20.0 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.15% ; FCFF base≈28.7m ; Y1≈26.6m ; Y5≈24.2m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 383.0m - Net Debt 8.03b = -7.65b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: -44.72 | EPS CAGR: -31.46% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -48.01 | Revenue CAGR: -4.09% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=+105.22% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=-11.17% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+128.33% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=-51.5% | GrowthRev=-48.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+44.2% | GrowthRev=+100.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -20%