ARLO Stock Analysis: Arlo Technologies | NYSE
Building Products & Equipment | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.382m USD | 12M Return: -25.2% | US04206A1016 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.3M
EPS Trend: 74.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 82.3%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arlo Technologies (NYSE: ARLO) is a cloud-based smart home and small business security provider headquartered in Carlsbad, California, and operating across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. The company designs and sells a range of connected security hardware-including the Essential, Pro 6, and Ultra 3 camera lines, video doorbells, floodlight cameras, and the all-in-one Arlo Home Security System-alongside accessories such as mounts and chargers. Distribution channels include retailers, wholesale distributors, broadcast channels, wireless carriers, security solution providers, and the companys direct website.
Arlo has increasingly shifted toward a subscription-based revenue model through offerings like Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security (which bundles 24/7 professional monitoring with hardware), Arlo Safe (a personal safety app with crash detection and emergency response), and Arlo SmartCloud (a SaaS solution for business customers). This recurring-revenue approach is characteristic of the broader connected/smart home security sector, where hardware sales are typically used to anchor ongoing service subscriptions that drive long-term customer value and margin expansion.
- Arlo Secure subscriber growth lifts recurring revenue and margins
- Amazon Ring and Google Nest competition pressures camera pricing and market share
- Tariff exposure on imported consumer electronics squeezes hardware margins
| Net Income: 30.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.32% < 20% (prev 17.00%; Δ -3.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 78.2m > Net Income 30.5m |
| Net Debt (-135.4m) to EBITDA (39.2m): -3.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (110.8m) vs 12m ago 2.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.97% > 18% (prev 40.19%; Δ 5.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 169.1% > 50% (prev 158.8%; Δ 10.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 272.6m - Total Current Liabilities 194.5m) / Total Assets 374.6m |
| B: -0.97 (Retained Earnings -365.1m / Total Assets 374.6m) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 31.9m / Avg Total Assets 347.2m) |
| D: 0.73 (Book Value of Equity 158.5m / Total Liabilities 216.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.42 = B |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 63.6m/61.5m, Revenue 587.1m/507.7m) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 40.19% / 45.97%) |
| AQI: 2.37 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 587.1m / 507.7m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 30.5m - CFO 78.2m) / TA 374.6m) |
| Beneish M = -2.31 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.78 with a total of 1,374,796 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.47%, over one month by -1.99%, over three months by -1.54% and over the past year by -25.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.90 (which is 6.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Arlo Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARLO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 21 | 64.3% |
P/E Trailing = 45.8571
P/E Forward = 13.7931
P/S = 2.3533
P/B = 9.273
P/EG = 0.5519
Revenue TTM = 587.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 31.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 39.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.72m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.72m already included)
Net Debt = -135.4m USD (calculated: Debt 5.72m - CCE 141.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.25b USD (1.38b + Debt 5.72m - CCE 141.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 31.9m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 18.64x (Enterprise Value 1.25b / FCF TTM 66.9m)
FCF Yield = 5.37% (FCF TTM 66.9m / Enterprise Value 1.25b)
FCF Margin = 11.39% (FCF TTM 66.9m / Revenue TTM 587.1m)
Net Margin = 5.20% (Net Income TTM 30.5m / Revenue TTM 587.1m)
Gross Margin = 45.97% ((Revenue TTM 587.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 317.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.23% (prev 48.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.33 (Enterprise Value 1.25b / Total Assets 374.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.72m)
Taxrate = 4.20% (1.34m / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 30.5m (EBIT 31.9m * (1 - 4.20%))
Current Ratio = 1.40 (Total Current Assets 272.6m / Total Current Liabilities 194.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 5.72m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 158.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.45 (Net Debt -135.4m / EBITDA 39.2m)
Debt / FCF = -2.03 (Net Debt -135.4m / FCF TTM 66.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 143.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.80% (Net Income 30.5m / Total Assets 374.6m)
RoE = 21.25% (Net Income TTM 30.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 143.7m)
RoCE = 17.70% (EBIT 31.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 374.6m - Current Liab 194.5m))
RoIC = 20.26% (NOPAT 30.5m / Invested Capital 150.8m)
WACC = 11.59% (E(1.38b)/V(1.39b) * Re(11.64%) + D(5.72m)/V(1.39b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 11.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.45 | Cagr: 6.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.23% ; FCFF base≈62.9m ; Y1≈72.1m ; Y5≈106.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.68 (EV 1.01b - Net Debt -135.4m = Equity 1.15b / Shares 107.6m; r=11.59% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 74.89 | EPS CAGR: 38.68% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.27 | Revenue CAGR: 5.30% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+35.3% | GrowthRev=+11.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +76% (up=17, down=1)