ARLO Stock Analysis: Arlo Technologies | NYSE
Building Products & Equipment | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.460m USD | 12M Return: -23% | US04206A1016 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.4M
EPS Trend: 74.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 82.3%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arlo Technologies (NYSE: ARLO) is a Carlsbad, California-based company that provides cloud-based smart home security solutions, selling wireless cameras, video doorbells, floodlight cameras, and an integrated home security system across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. The company generates revenue through two main channels: hardware sales (retail, wholesale, carriers, and its own website) and recurring subscription services such as Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security (which bundles professional monitoring with hardware), the personal safety app Arlo Safe, and Arlo SmartCloud, a SaaS offering for businesses.
The business operates within the consumer smart home security and connected devices segment of the information technology sector, following a hardware-plus-subscription model in which device sales serve as the customer acquisition funnel for higher-margin cloud monitoring, AI-based object detection, and professional monitoring services. Arlo competes in a market that has increasingly attracted large platform players, and its financial performance is sensitive to consumer demand for connected home products as well as subscriber growth and retention.
- Arlo Secure subscriber growth lifts recurring revenue and gross margins
- Competition from Amazon Ring and Google Nest pressures pricing and market share
- Consumer discretionary spending weakness threatens camera hardware unit demand
| Net Income: 30.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.32% < 20% (prev 17.00%; Δ -3.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 78.2m > Net Income 30.5m |
| Net Debt (-135.4m) to EBITDA (39.2m): -3.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (110.8m) vs 12m ago 2.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 45.97% > 18% (prev 40.19%; Δ 5.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 169.1% > 50% (prev 158.8%; Δ 10.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 272.6m - Total Current Liabilities 194.5m) / Total Assets 374.6m |
| B: -0.97 (Retained Earnings -365.1m / Total Assets 374.6m) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 31.9m / Avg Total Assets 347.2m) |
| D: 0.73 (Book Value of Equity 158.5m / Total Liabilities 216.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.42 = B |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 63.6m/61.5m, Revenue 587.1m/507.7m) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 40.19% / 45.97%) |
| AQI: 2.37 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 587.1m / 507.7m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 30.5m - CFO 78.2m) / TA 374.6m) |
| Beneish M = -2.31 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.09 with a total of 761,822 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.52%, over one month by +1.71%, over three months by -2.82% and over the past year by -22.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.80 (which is 9.9% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Arlo Technologies has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARLO.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 21 | 60.4% |
P/E Trailing = 48.4643
P/E Forward = 14.3062
P/S = 2.4871
P/B = 9.0829
P/EG = 0.5724
Revenue TTM = 587.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 31.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 39.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 5.72m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.72m already included)
Net Debt = -135.4m USD (calculated: Debt 5.72m - CCE 141.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.32b USD (1.46b + Debt 5.72m - CCE 141.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 31.9m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 19.81x (Enterprise Value 1.32b / FCF TTM 66.9m)
FCF Yield = 5.05% (FCF TTM 66.9m / Enterprise Value 1.32b)
FCF Margin = 11.39% (FCF TTM 66.9m / Revenue TTM 587.1m)
Net Margin = 5.20% (Net Income TTM 30.5m / Revenue TTM 587.1m)
Gross Margin = 45.97% ((Revenue TTM 587.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 317.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.23% (prev 48.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.54 (Enterprise Value 1.32b / Total Assets 374.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.72m)
Taxrate = 4.20% (1.34m / 31.9m)
NOPAT = 30.5m (EBIT 31.9m * (1 - 4.20%))
Current Ratio = 1.40 (Total Current Assets 272.6m / Total Current Liabilities 194.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 5.72m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 158.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.45 (Net Debt -135.4m / EBITDA 39.2m)
Debt / FCF = -2.03 (Net Debt -135.4m / FCF TTM 66.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 143.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.80% (Net Income 30.5m / Total Assets 374.6m)
RoE = 21.25% (Net Income TTM 30.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 143.7m)
RoCE = 17.70% (EBIT 31.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 374.6m - Current Liab 194.5m))
RoIC = 20.26% (NOPAT 30.5m / Invested Capital 150.8m)
WACC = 11.65% (E(1.46b)/V(1.47b) * Re(11.70%) + D(5.72m)/V(1.47b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 11.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.45 | Cagr: 6.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.05% ; FCFF base≈62.9m ; Y1≈72.1m ; Y5≈106.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.61 (EV 1.01b - Net Debt -135.4m = Equity 1.14b / Shares 107.6m; r=11.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 74.89 | EPS CAGR: 38.68% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.27 | Revenue CAGR: 5.30% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+11.54% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=+12.98% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+35.3% | GrowthRev=+11.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=+4.13% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +83% (up=15, down=0)