(ARLO) Arlo Technologies - Overview
Stock: Camera, Doorbell, Security, Subscription, Cloud
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.88% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.35 |
| Alpha | -13.21 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.451 |
| Beta Downside | 1.546 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.82% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.86 |
Description: ARLO Arlo Technologies January 16, 2026
Arlo Technologies (NYSE:ARLO) is a cloud-based home-security firm that sells smart cameras, doorbells, floodlights and related accessories across the Americas, EMEA and APAC, and monetizes them through hardware sales and recurring “Arlo Secure” subscriptions.
Its product suite now spans entry-level Essential cameras (2K video, 180° view), mid-tier Pro 5S, 4K Ultra 2 with HDR and auto-tracking, battery-powered Go 2 for off-grid sites, and a wire-free Floodlight Camera. The subscription ladder includes 2K and 4K cloud recording, advanced AI object detection, smoke/CO alerts and 24/7 professional monitoring via the Total Security plan, while the Arlo Safe app adds personal-safety features such as crash detection.
From a financial standpoint, Arlo reported FY 2023 revenue of $462 million, with subscription ARR rising ~38% YoY to $115 million-a key driver of margin expansion as gross profit improved from 31% to 38% over the same period. The smart-home security market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~12% through 2028, fueled by increased remote-work adoption and consumer demand for integrated IoT safety solutions; however, the company’s cash burn remains elevated (~$70 million in Q4 2023), implying a need for continued capital efficiency.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find the ValueRay analyst platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 4.30m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 17.56% < 20% (prev 15.69%; Δ 1.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 65.6m > Net Income 4.30m |
| Net Debt (-78.8m) to EBITDA (5.81m): -13.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (109.6m) vs 12m ago 9.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.64% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 4127 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 153.7% > 50% (prev 167.9%; Δ -14.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.00 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 5.81m / Interest Expense TTM -2.42m) |
Altman Z'' -3.73
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 301.7m - Total Current Liabilities 212.2m) / Total Assets 350.9m |
| B: -1.11 (Retained Earnings -388.8m / Total Assets 350.9m) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 2.42m / Avg Total Assets 331.6m) |
| D: -1.75 (Book Value of Equity -388.7m / Total Liabilities 221.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.73 = D |
Beneish M -3.05
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 76.7m/68.6m, Revenue 509.6m/524.4m) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 41.64% / 36.23%) |
| AQI: 1.28 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 509.6m / 524.4m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI 4.30m - CFO 65.6m) / TA 350.9m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ARLO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.29%, over one month by -9.09%, over three months by -26.80% and over the past year by +8.96%.
Is ARLO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARLO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23.2 | 87.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23.2 | 87.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.8 | 19.1% |
ARLO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.6945
P/S = 2.6396
P/B = 10.679
Revenue TTM = 509.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 2.42m USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.81m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.21m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.69m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.21m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -78.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.19b USD (1.35b + Debt 7.21m - CCE 165.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.00 (Ebit TTM 2.42m / Interest Expense TTM -2.42m)
EV/FCF = 21.75x (Enterprise Value 1.19b / FCF TTM 54.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.60% (FCF TTM 54.6m / Enterprise Value 1.19b)
FCF Margin = 10.71% (FCF TTM 54.6m / Revenue TTM 509.6m)
Net Margin = 0.84% (Net Income TTM 4.30m / Revenue TTM 509.6m)
Gross Margin = 41.64% ((Revenue TTM 509.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 297.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.50% (prev 44.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.38 (Enterprise Value 1.19b / Total Assets 350.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.07% (Interest Expense 726.0k / Debt 7.21m)
Taxrate = 2.19% (154.0k / 7.03m)
NOPAT = 2.37m (EBIT 2.42m * (1 - 2.19%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 301.7m / Total Current Liabilities 212.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 7.21m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 129.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.57 (Net Debt -78.8m / EBITDA 5.81m)
Debt / FCF = -1.44 (Net Debt -78.8m / FCF TTM 54.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 112.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.30% (Net Income 4.30m / Total Assets 350.9m)
RoE = 3.81% (Net Income TTM 4.30m / Total Stockholder Equity 112.9m)
RoCE = 2.01% (EBIT 2.42m / Capital Employed (Equity 112.9m + L.T.Debt 7.21m))
RoIC = 2.09% (NOPAT 2.37m / Invested Capital 112.9m)
WACC = 11.25% (E(1.35b)/V(1.35b) * Re(11.26%) + D(7.21m)/V(1.35b) * Rd(10.07%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 11.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.71%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.63% ; FCFF base≈53.0m ; Y1≈60.6m ; Y5≈84.0m
Fair Price DCF = 8.97 (EV 872.4m - Net Debt -78.8m = Equity 951.2m / Shares 106.0m; r=11.25% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 16.90% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 57.40 | EPS CAGR: -4.19% | SUE: -3.34 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 16.38 | Revenue CAGR: -0.63% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=+0.003 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+19.5% | Growth Revenue=+7.6%